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FX Daily112 .pdf



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Author: Fabbricotti Giulia A. (VTLG 32)

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22 October 2013
Fixed Income Research

FX Daily
Global Strategy Technical Analysis

Today’s highlights:
 EURUSD’s spotlight remains on the 1.3711 peak. Above here,can
target the 61.8% retracement of the 2011/2012 bear market at 1.3835.
 AUDUSD is within striking distance of our .9700/30 basing target,
where we look for a top.
 NZDUSD is correcting lower, but ideally holds .8352/37 to keep the
broader trend higher.
 GBPUSD ideally holds 1.6061/59 to see a retest of 1.6262, then the
range high at 1.6329/79.
 EURJPY stays on course to retest the 134.96 peak. Bigger picture, we
remain bullish for 139/141.
 USDJPY continues to hold 200-day average and 61.8% retracement
support at 97.50/23.

Today’s trades/positions:
 EURUSD: Long again at 1.3656, stop below 1.3589. Reverse longs on
strength to 1.3800/30, stop above 1.3880.
 USDJPY: Go long at 97.75/50, stop below 97.10, for 99.00.
 GBPUSD: Flat. Go long at 1.6100/1.6060, stop below 1.6020, for
1.6300/25. Reverse longs/go short here, stop above 1.6380.
 USDCHF: Flat, sell at .9070/90, stop above .9115, for .8970.
 AUDUSD: Long, stop below .9478, for .9700. Take profit here and try a
short at .9700/30, stop above .9793.
 NZDUSD: Buy at .8420/10, stop below .8331, for .8625.
 USDCAD: Flat, buy at 1.0265, stop/reverse below 1.0239 for 1.0360.
 EURJPY: Long, add at 133.60, stop below 133.30, for 135.20.
 EURGBP: Long, stop/reverse below .8422, for .8550.

Hierarchy Grid

Source: Credit Suisse

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS

BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access

22 October 2013

EURUSD

Weekly

Resistance

1.3690, 1.3705/11**, 1.3726, 1.3795, 1.3800/15*,
1.3835**, 1.3861, 1.3877*, 1.3958**, 1.3980**

Support

1.3650/46*, 1.3638, 1.3617/16*, 1.3602/3598*,
1.3589, 1.3568/58*, 1.3540, 1.3526, 1.3515*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The spotlight remains on the 1.3711 peak. Above here,
can target the 61.8% retracement of the 2011/2012 bear
market at 1.3835.
EURUSD remains in an elevated range this week and above
minimal support at 1.3617/16 (38.2% of the rally from
1.3473). This leaves the immediate risks topside and
attention on 1.3705/11. A break above here should signal an
extension of the rally to a cluster of Fibonacci and price
resistances, starting at 1.3800 and stretching up to 1.3835 –
the 61.8% retracement of the 2011/12 bear market. We
would look for fresh selling to then show here. A direct break
can target half the whole fall from 2008/10 at 1.3958.
Support moves to 1.3650/46 initially then 1.3617, with
1.3602/1.3598 ideally holding to keep the immediate risk
higher. Below can see a deeper setback to 1.3568.
Strategy: Long at 1.3656, stop below 1.3589, for 1.3800/30.
Reverse longs to a short here, stop above 1.3880.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDJPY

Daily

Resistance

98.46, 99.01*, 99.13/19*, 99.36, 99.68*, 99.78,
99.99/100.00*, 100.21, 100.62/88**

Support

98.10, 97.72, 97.56/50*, 97.26/23**, 97.12*, 96.83*,
96.57**, 95.93, 95.83/80**, 94.83

The bounce ahead of the 200-day average at 97.23,
leaves prices range bound.
USDJPY has held 97.50 – the 61.8% retracement of the rally
from 96.57 – just ahead of the 200-day average, now at
97.23, and recaptured half the losses from last week’s fall.
Above 98.46 is needed to keep the immediate risk to the
topside for a test of the 99.01 recent high, with a break above
here needed to set a base for 99.67/100.00, with a stiffer test
placed at the near-term range highs at 100.62/88
Below 97.50/12, would see a deeper retracement to the
96.57 low and through here would see a revisit to trendline
support at 95.97/80.
Strategy: Go long at 97.75/50, stop below 97.10, for 99.00.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

2

22 October 2013

GBPUSD

Daily

Resistance

1.6180/86, 1.6226*, 1.6235/43*, 1.6262**, 1.6324**,
1.6379**, 1.6409, 1.6455, 1.6500, 1.6573, 1.6619**

Support

1.6115, 1.6098, 1.6061/59*, 1.6021/19, 1.6000,
1.5992*, 1.5940, 1.5894**, 1.5885*, 1.5850/45**

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We look for 1.6061/59 to try and hold for strength back to
1.6262, then the range high at 1.6329/79.
GBPUSD has eased back from last week’ high as it
consolidates recent gains. We allow for weakness to run
further, however, we look for the top of the recent base and
50% retracement of the rally from 1.5894 at 1.6061/59 to try
and hold for strength back to 1.6226, then the October peak
at 1.6262. Whilst a fresh setback from here should be
allowed for, a direct extension through it would look to the
broader converging range highs at 1.6324/79. We would look
for a fresh attempt to top here.
Support is initially at 1.6098. Below 1.6061/59 can ease the
immediate upside bias, for a deeper pullback to channel
support at 1.6000/1.5992.
Strategy: Go long at 1.6100/1.6060, stop below 1.6020, for
1.6300/25. Reverse longs/go short here, stop above 1.6380.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDCHF

Daily

Resistance.

.9047*, .9058/70*, .9090/.9100*, .9129, .9149*,
77/79*, .9185/91, .9203/12*, .9224, .9256/70**

.91

Support

.9005/04*, .8978/68*, .8935/31***, .8862**, .8848, .8
761, .8610, .8568**, .8518*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The bias stays bearish through .9004 to test .8968,
beneath which would find the key .8931 low again.
USDCHF starts the week holding at the recent lows. This
leaves the immediate focus on .9004, beneath which should
trigger a test of .8968, the early October low, where we
would again look for buying to show. Beneath here would
expose the key .8931 level through which would set a bigger
top, for .8862 initially.
Resistance shows at .9047 initially, above which can see a
small base for .9058/70 initially, then .9090/.9100. Tougher
resistance remains seen at .9179/91.
Strategy: Flat, sell at .9070/90, stop above .9115, for .8970.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

3

22 October 2013

AUDUSD

Daily

Resistance

.9680, .9700/16**, .9730*, .9758**, .9793**,
8/43*, .9915/20**1.0000/06**

Support

.9642/41, .9604*, .9578/69, .9528/20*, .9499,
8/78*, .9466, .9455, .9435/27*, .9407

.982
.948

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The spotlight stays higher on our .9700/30 basing target,
where we look for a top.
AUDUSD remain at the recent highs and poised just below our
core basing target at .9700/30 – the measured target from the
June/September base and the 50% retracement of the 2013
fall. With the 200-day average at .9758 falling just above, and
a daily DeMark sequential 13 sell signal complete, we look for
the market to try and top here, for a decline back
towards .9350. Support shows first at .9604, below which can
ease the immediate upside bias for .9569, then .9530/11.
Below .9499/78 is needed to mark a near-term top.
Extension through .9730 and then .9793 is needed to curtail
immediate thoughts of a top, for further gains to .9915/20.
Strategy: Long, stop below .9478, for .9700. Take profit here
and try a short at .9700/30, stop above .9793.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

NZDUSD

Daily

Resistance

.8480, .8517, .8527*, .8559*, .8588**, .8627**, .8645,
.8678**, .8700, .8733, .8786*, .8845**

Support

.8437, .8414/10, .8398*, .8379, .8358, .8348/44*,
.8340/37*, .8323, .8309/06, .8294, .8288/81*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We allow for the correction to run deeper, but look
for .8352/37 to ideally hold to turn the trend again.
NZDUSD’s rally has run out of steam into the recent highs,
which was flagged in divergent momentum readings (c.f.
lower panel above), and has seen a retracement lower. We
expect this to run deeper, but ideally look for better support
at price and 21-day average .8352/37 and an attempt to turn
higher ahead of here. Above .8527 is needed to aim at .8588
next, ahead of the measured target from the large base and
top of the medium-term range at .8627/78.
Near-term support shows at .8437, then .8398, but removal
of .8352/37 is needed to ease immediate upside risks.
Strategy: Buy at .8420/10, stop below .8331, for .8625.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

4

22 October 2013

USDCAD

Daily

Resistance

1.0315*, 1.0329/33*, 1.0340/42*, 1.0381*,
1.0392/0400**, 1.0414, 1.0421**, 1.0437

Support

1.0285, 1.0276/70*, 1.0263**, 1.0239**, 1.0182**,
1.0174, 1.0136**, 1.0124*,

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

Trendline/200-day average support at 1.0263/39 has
initially held, but above 1.0340/42 is needed to ease the
immediate bearish bias.
USDCAD has as expected found a firmer footing ahead of
more important support at 1.0263/39 – the trendline from the
September 2012 low and the 200-day average – and staged
a rebound. We expect the bounce to run further, however,
we foresee selling interest emerging at 1.0330/42. Above
here is required for a more extended rally, and through
1.0381 needed for a firmer recovery to 1.0421/27.
Below 1.0276/70 would target 1.0263/39, with its removal
needed to threaten a larger top, for 1.0182.
Strategy: Flat, buy at 1.0265, stop/reverse below 1.0239, for
1.0360.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

EURJPY

Daily

Resistance

134.58/76, 134.96/135.00**, 135.26*, 135.37/40*,
135.75*, 135.93/136.00*, 136.20*, 136.82

Support

134.00, 133.75, 133.58*, 133.33*, 133.24, 132.98/97,
132.63**, 132.45*, 132.23/20*, 132.07, 131.82

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We look for a retest of the 134.96 high.
EURJPY continues to grind up towards the 134.96 peak. An
overshoot to potential trend resistance at 135.26 should be
allowed for, but we would expect to cap at first. Bigger picture
though, we continue to look for an eventual clear break
higher to be staged to open the door for a move to our
139/141 long-held bull target – the 2009 highs and 61.8%
retracement of the 2008/2012 bear market.
Support shows at 134.00 initially, then 133.58/33. Below here
can see a setback to 132.63, which we look to ideally hold.
Strategy: Long. Add at 133.60, stop below 133.30, for
135.20.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

5

22 October 2013

EURGBP

Daily

Resistance

.8499, .8512/17*, .8532**, .8536, .8552/55*, .8572,
.8605**, .8653**

Support

.8449/41, .8430/22**, .8405, .8391, .8377, .8366/63*,
.8334/27*, .8299, .8285**, .8265*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

EURGBP remains deadlocked in a sideways range above
the .8430/22 support.
EURGBP remains deadlocked in a sideways range and
continues to hold above support at .8430/22. Resistance
remains initially at .8499, with the bigger barrier still
at .8517/3332 - the 200-day average. We continue to look for
selling here, and only above would see the recovery resume
for .8552.
Removal of .8430/22 is needed for a top for .8366, ahead of
the .8332 low. Removal of the latter is needed to get the
downtrend back on track for .8285.
Strategy: Long, stop/reverse below .8422, for .8550.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

6


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