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Aircraft Appraisers' Roundtable .pdf



Original filename: Aircraft Appraisers' Roundtable.pdf
Author: Craig Wilson

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What we’re going to cover
• Brief look at general CMV trends for:
– Single Aisle: A319, A320, 737-700, 737-800
– Twin Aisle: A330-200, A330-300, 767-300ER, 777-200ER, 777-

300ER

• Specific values and comments on:
– FIVE current generation, in-service aircraft types: A320,
A330-300, 737-800, 777-300ER, 777 Freighter
– FIVE new technology jetliners currently under development:
development: CS100, A320NEO, A350-900XWB, 737787-9

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$40

$30
737-700
A319

$20
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

A319 Monthly Operating Lease Rental Range ($000s)
$400

$300

$270

$200

$100
$80
$0
1 Q '0 6

3 Q '0 6

1 Q '0 7

3 Q '0 7

1 Q '0 8

3 Q '0 8

1 Q '0 9

3 Q '0 9

1 Q '1 0

3 Q '1 0

1 Q '1 1

3 Q '1 1

1 Q '1 2

3 Q '1 2

1 Q '1 3

3 Q '1 3

737-700 Monthly Operating Lease Rental Range ($000s)
$400

$300
$200

$200

$125

$100

$0
1 Q '0 6

3 Q '0 6

1 Q '0 7

3 Q '0 7

1 Q '0 8

3 Q '0 8

1 Q '0 9

3 Q '0 9 1 Q '1 0

3 Q '1 0

1 Q '1 1

3 Q '1 1

1 Q '1 2

3 Q '1 2

1 Q '1 3

3 Q '1 3

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$40

737-800

A320
$30

$20
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

A320-200 Monthly Operating Lease Rental Range ($000s)
$500

$400
$310
$300
$200

$100
$65
$0
1 Q '0 6

3 Q '0 6

1 Q '0 7

3 Q '0 7

1 Q '0 8

3 Q '0 8

1 Q '0 9

3 Q '0 9

1 Q '1 0

3 Q '1 0

1 Q '1 1

3 Q '1 1

1 Q '1 2

3 Q '1 2

1 Q '1 3

3 Q '1 3

737-800 Monthly Operating Lease Rental Range ($000s)
$500
$380

$400
$300
$200

$190
$100
$0
1 Q '0 6

3 Q '0 6

1 Q '0 7

3 Q '0 7

1 Q '0 8

3 Q '0 8

1 Q '0 9

3 Q '0 9

1 Q '1 0

3 Q '1 0

1 Q '1 1

3 Q '1 1

1 Q '1 2

3 Q '1 2

1 Q '1 3

3 Q '1 3

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$40

737-800

A320
$30
737-700
A319

$20
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$125

$110
777-200ER
$95

$80

A330-200

$65

$50

767-300ER

$35
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$125
777-300ER
$110

$95

A330-300

$80

$65

$50

$35
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

CMV Trends, Five Year Old Aircraft (then current US$ millions)
$125
777-300ER
$110
777-200ER
$95

A330-300

$80

A330-200

$65

$50

767-300ER

$35
1Q '06

1Q '07

1Q '08

1Q '09

1Q '10

1Q '11

1Q '12

1Q '13

A320-200, 2008, CFM56-5B4/3, 77T
$36
32.9
31.1

30.8

29.8

31.3

28.3

$24

30.9

30.0

27.3

27.1
24.7

25.0

18.6

16.9

16.4

15.1

$12

15.6

16.0

$0
Fred

Doug
BV Today

Eddie

Mark

CMV Today

Ken

Average

BV in 10 Yrs, 2.0% infl

A330-300, 2008, Trent 772B-60, 233T
$80

75.2

74.8

74.0

72.6

72.0

70.3

68.3

66.8

69.0

69.5

64.7

$60

$40

44.2

39.1

40.2

40.6

33.6

37.0

$20

$0
Fred

Doug
BV Today

Eddie

Mark

CMV Today

Ken
BV in 10 Yrs, 2.0% infl

Average

737-800W, 2008, CFM56-7B26/3, 172,500#
$40
34.3

34.3

32.7

34.0

32.7
32.6

31.6

32.4

33.6

33.0

32.5

$20
19.7

20.8

19.5
17.2

$0

Fred

Doug
BV Today

Eddie

18.6

15.8

Mark

CMV Today

Ken
BV in 10 Yrs, 2.0% infl

Average

777-300ER, 2008, GE90-115BL2, 760,000#
$125

117.9

114.8

106.1

115.0

107.7

112.3

110.0
103.3

$100

109.7

102.4

$75
70.6
65.5

62.0

58.3

$50

62.1

54.2

$25

$0
Fred

Doug
BV Today

Eddie

Mark

CMV Today

Ken
BV in 10 Yrs, 2.0% infl

Average

777 Freighter, Factory New, GE90 -110B1, 766,800#
193.9

$200
168.8

165.7

188.5

174.8

169.5

164.6

160.0

$150

$100

173.6

165.0

108.5

105.0

95.1

95.1
83.4

83.4

$50

$0
Fred

Doug
BV Today

Eddie
CMV Today

Mark

Ken

BV in 10 Yrs, 2.0% infl

Average

• The purchase price, in 2013 $,
that you would likely have to
pay to purchase a “reasonable”
number of aircraft, not a
launch/strategic sale, but also
not necessarily a one or two
airplane purchase.

CS100, 4Q 2013 Contract Date
39.3

$40
35.5
32.5

34.3

38.1

34.3

34.1
30.0

$30

$20

$10

$0
Fred

Doug

Eddie
BV Today

Mark

Ken
CMV Today

Average

A320NEO, 4Q2013 Contract Date
$60

56.4
45.5

46.3

49.8

54.1
46.3

48.4

44.0
47.9

$40

$20

$0
Fred

Doug

Eddie
BV Today
49.8

Mark

Ken
CMV Today

Average

A350-900XWB, 4Q2013 Contract Date
$180
151.5

157.7
154.4

130.0

136.0

Fred

Doug

141.0

130.0

140.4

$120

$60

$0
Eddie
BV Today

Mark

Ken
CMV Today

Average

737-8MAX, 4Q2013 Contract Date
$60

54.9

48.6

50.3

51.3

52.7

49.0

50.8

50.4

$40

$20

$0
Fred

Doug
51.3

Eddie
BV Today

Mark

Ken
CMV Today

Average

787-9, 4Q 2013 Contract Date
$160

153.4
130.0

132.1

132.6

150.4
130.0

135.6

135.0

$120

$80

$40

$0
Fred

Doug

Eddie
BV Today

Mark

Ken
CMV Today

Average


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