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FX Daily118 .pdf



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Author: Fabbricotti Giulia A. (VTLG 32)

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23 October 2013
Fixed Income Research

FX Daily
Global Strategy Technical Analysis

Today’s highlights:
 AUDUSD has achieved our.9700/30 basing target, and we continue to
look for a top here.
 NZDUSD falls sharply overnight, completing a top below .8435.
 EURUSD breaks to a new high for the year, but faces a cluster of
Fibonacci resistances at 1.3800/35, which we look to cap at first.
 USDCHF spotlight turns to the key .8931 low again. Below here would
complete a major top.
 GBPUSD stages a bullish “outside” day to keeps the spotlight on
1.6262, next then the range highs at 1.6320/79.
 USDJPY falls sharply to test its 200-day average at 97.28/26. A break
can see weakness extend to 96.01/95.80.

Today’s trades/positions:
 EURUSD: Long at 1.3656, stop below 1.3589. Reverse longs on
strength to 1.3800/30, stop above 1.3880.
 USDJPY: Long, stop/reverse below 97.10, for 99.00.
 GBPUSD: Go long at 1.6162, stop below 1.6115, for 1.6320.
 USDCHF: Flat, sell at .9000, stop above .9047 for .8865.
 AUDUSD: Long from .9478 reversed to a short at .9700 target, stop
above .9800, for .9530.
 NZDUSD: Long, stop/reverse below .8325, for .8600.
 USDCAD: Flat, buy at 1.0265, stop/reverse below 1.0239 for 1.0360.
 EURJPY: Squared the long at 135.20. Buy again at 133.80, stop below
133.30, for 138.50.
 EURGBP: Long, stop/reverse below .8422, for .8550.

Hierarchy Grid

Source: Credit Suisse

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS

BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access

23 October 2013

EURUSD

Weekly

Resistance

1.3800/15*, 1.3835**, 1.3861, 1.3877*, 1.3958/79**,
1.3980**, 1.400*, 1.4171, 1.4248**

Support

1.3739, 1.3723, 1.3711/05*, 1.3390, 1.3671, 1.3662,
1.3650/46**, 1.3638, 1.3617/16*, 1.3602/3598*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We target the 61.8% retracement of the 2011/2012 bear
market at 1.3835 next, but look for this to ideally cap at
first.
EURUSD has surged higher again and decisively broken
through the 1.3711 February peak. The subsequent strong
rally has already extended to just shy of the beginning of a
cluster of Fibonacci resistances at 1.3800/35, which includes
the 61.8% retracement of the 2011/12 bear market. We
would look for fresh selling to show here. A direct break can
target half the whole fall from 2008/10 and long-term
trendline resistance at 1.3958/79.
Support moves to 1.3739/23 initially, then 1.3705. Below
here is needed to ease the immediate upside bias, but below
1.3662/50 to mark a near-term top.
Strategy: Long at 1.3656, stop below 1.3589, for 1.3800/30.
Reverse longs to a short here, stop above 1.3880.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDJPY

Daily

Resistance

97.56, 97.87, 98.21, 98.48*, 99.01*, 99.13/19*,
99.36, 99.68*, 99.78, 99.99/100.00*, 100.21

Support

97.28/26**, 97.12*, 96.76, 96.57**, 95.99/97*,
95.80**, 95.21, 94.83, 94.44, 93.79/57**

Below the 200-day average at 97.28/26 can increase
bearish pressure.
USDJPY has fallen sharply overnight, breaking its recent low
and 61.8% retracement at 97.56/50 for a retest of its 200-day
average at 97.28/26. Whilst an attempt to hold here should
be allowed for, a break can see a more extended sell-off to
trendline and chart support at 96.01/95.80. Below here
though is needed to mark a more significant breakdown,
targeting 93.79/57.
Resistance moves to 97.87 initially, with a break above 98.48
needed to ease the immediate downside bias, for strength
back to 99.01
Strategy: Long, stop/reverse below 97.10, for 99.00.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

2

23 October 2013

GBPUSD

Weekly

Resistance

1.6262**, 1.6320**, 1.6379**, 1.6409, 1.6455,
1.6500, 1.6573, 1.6619**, 1.6691*

Support

1.6182/62, 1.6115*, 1.6098, 1.6061/59*, 1.6021/19,
1.6011/00**, 1.5940,. 1.5894**, 1.5885*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

A bullish “outside” day keeps the spotlight on 1.6262,
then the range highs at 1.6329/79.
GBPUSD has staged an aggressive bullish “outside” day,
which has brought prices close to the October peak at
1.6262. Whilst a setback from here should be allowed for, a
direct extension through would look to the broader
converging range highs at 1.6320/79, which we would look to
try and cap for a turn lower. Above here is needed to set a
bigger base for 1.6619.
Support is initially at 1.6182/62 then 1.6115, but removal of
channel support at 1.6011/00 needed to ease upside risks.
Strategy: Go long at 1.6162, stop below 1.6115, for 1.6320.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDCHF

Weekly

Resistance.

.8991, .9003/05*, .9041/47**, .9058/70*,
.9100*, .9129, .9149*, .9177/79*, .9181/91*

.9090/

Support

.8941/31***, .8862**, .8848, .8761, .8610, .8568**, .
8518**, .8478

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The spotlight turns to the key .8931 low again, below
which would complete a major top.
USDCHF has again sold off aggressively, removing
the .8968, early October low, and pushing down to test the
key .8931 level. We would expect an initial attempt to hold
here. However, if removed this would set a bigger top,
for .8862 initially – the 38.2% retracement of the 2011/12
rally. Below here would aim at .8761, ahead of .8568/.8518.
Resistance shows at .8991 initially, then .9003/04, which we
look to now ideally cap. Above .9041/47 is needed for a
base.
Strategy: Flat, sell at .9000, stop above .9047, for .8865.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

3

23 October 2013

AUDUSD

Daily

Resistance

.9665, .9697*, .9716, .9733, .9748/58**, .9793**, .9
828/43*, .9915/20**1.0000/06**

Support

.9604*, .9578/69*, .9528/20*, .9507**, .9499,
8/78*, .9466/63, .9455, .9435/27**, .9407

.948

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

AUDUSD has achieved our .9700/30 basing target, and
we look for a top.
AUDUSD has rallied to achieve our core basing target
at .9700/30 – the measured target from the June/September
base and the 50% retracement of the 2013 fall – and we
continue to look for a top here. The overnight spike higher has
essentially been contained by the falling 200-day average
at .9749, and the subsequent aggressive sell-off leaves a
bearish “reversal day” threatening. A close below .9641 today
is needed to confirm, to target .9604 initially, ahead
of .9578/69. Beneath here can target what should be better
support from the 21-day average at .9507.
Extension through .9749/58 aims at .9793/.9800. Above here
would neutralise topping thoughts for now, for .9900/20.
Strategy: Long from .9478 took profit at .9700, and now
reversed short, stop above, .9800 for .9530.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

NZDUSD

Daily

Resistance

.8435/49*, .8467, .8479/80, .8521/24, .8545*, .8559*,
.8588**, .8627**, .8645, .8678**, .8700, .8733

Support

.8379, .8358/48*, .8340/37*, .8323*, .8309/06, .8294,
.8281*, .8232/31*, .8194/64**

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

Below .8435 sees a top.
NZDUSD overnight has reversed yesterday’s strength
to .8545, and the break below .8435 has seen a top
established. We look for .8435/49 to ideally cap to keep the
immediate risk lower for a test of price and rising 21-day
average support at .8358/48. Below here though is needed
to suggest a more significant peak has been posted, for
further weakness to .8323 initially, then back to .8232/31.
Above .8449 can ease the immediate downside bias, with a
break back above .8480 needed to suggest the top has been
neutralised, for a retest of .8521/45.
Strategy: Long, stop/reverse below .8325, for .8600.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

4

23 October 2013

USDCAD

Daily

Resistance

1.0329/33*, 1.0340/42*, 1.0381*, 1.0392/0400**,
1.0414, 1.0421**, 1.0437

Support

1.0280/78, 1.0269*, 1.0263**, 1.0239**, 1.0182**,
1.0174, 1.0136**, 1.0124*,

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We expect a small bounce from trendline/200-day
average support at 1.0265/42, but while beneath
1.0340/75, downside risks remain in place.
USDCAD has fallen back to again test important support at
1.0265/42 – the trendline from the September 2012 low and
the 200-day average – which has again initially held. We
allow for a bounce from here. However, the market remains
capped beneath trendline resistance at 1.0340/75, leaving
broader downside risks in place. Only above here would
allow a push up to 1.0421/27.
Capitulation beneath 1.0265/42 would threaten a larger top,
for 1.0182.
Strategy: Flat. Go long at 1.0265, stop/reverse below
1.0239, for 1.0360.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

EURJPY

Weekly

Resistance

134.54, 134.84/90, 135.33, 135.47*, 135.75*,
135.93/136.00*, 136.20*, 136.82, 138.50*, 139.14**

Support

133.81/75, 133.58*, 133.33*, 133.24, 132.98/97,
132.63**, 132.45*, 132.23/20*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We look for 133.58 to ideally hold the pullback.
EURJPY has pulled back sharply overnight from its 135.47
peak set yesterday, breaking near-term support at 134.43.
Further weakness to 133.81/75, potentially 133.58 is looked
for, but we look for this latter level to then ideally hold.
Resistance shows at 134.54 initially, with a break above
134.84/90 needed for a move back to 135.47. Beyond here
should see strength extend to 135.93/136.00 next, and
eventually our 139.14/141.00 long-held bull target – the 2009
highs and 61.8% retracement of the 2008/2012 bear market.
Below 135.58/33 can see a deeper setback to 132.63, which
we look to ideally hold.
Strategy: Squared the long at 135.20. Buy again at 133.80,
stop below 133.30, for 138.50.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

5

23 October 2013

EURGBP

Daily

Resistance

.8502, .8512/17*, .8532**, .8536, .8552/55*, .8572,
.8605**, .8653**

Support

.8482, .8472, .8449/41*, .8430/22**, .8405, .8391, .8
377, .8366/63*, .8334/27*, .8299, .8285**, .8265*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The bias stays higher to retest the 50% retracement/200day average barrier at .8534/52.
EURGBP continues to push back to the top of the range.
Resistance shows next at .8502, with the bigger barrier still
at .8534/52 - the 200-day average and the 50% retracement
hurdle. Above here is needed to look to trendline resistance
at .8605/19.
Removal of .8430/22 is needed for a top for .8366, ahead of
the .8332 low. Removal of the latter is needed to get the
downtrend back on track for .8285.
Strategy: Long, stop/reverse below .8422, for .8550.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

6


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