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FX Daily3 .pdf



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Author: Fabbricotti Giulia A. (VTLG 32)

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04 November 2013
Fixed Income Research

FX Daily
Global Strategy Technical Analysis

Today’s highlights:
 EURUSD has extended its collapse to pivotal support at 1.3473/21,
which we look to hold for now. Failure would mark a more important
top.
 GBPUSD below 1.5894 would complete a bearish “double top”.
 USDCHF above .9179 would see a base established.
 AUDUSD has achieved our .9427 target – the 38.2% retracement of the
August/October rally – where we still look for a base.
 NZDUSD is still expected to base at solid support at .8182/64.
 USDJPY has completed a bullish “outside range” day, and we look for
a break above 99.01, to target 99.67/99.
 EURJPY continues to hold its rising 55-day average at 132.60.

Today’s trades/positions:
 EURUSD: Long from 1.3475, stop/reverse below 1.3420, for 1.3590.
 USDJPY: Long at 98.25, stop below 97.80 for 100.00.
 GBPUSD: Short took profit at 1.5975. Try a long at 1.5910,
stop/reverse below 1.5890. Reverse longs/go short at 1.6000, stop
above 1.6070.
 USDCHF: Short at .9145, stop/reverse above .9180, for .9030.
 AUDUSD: Long from .9450/30, stop below .9390, for .9600.
 NZDUSD: Long, stop/reverse below .8164, for .8380.
 USDCAD: Flat, try a long at 1.0370, stop below 1.0313 for 1.0500.
 EURJPY: Flat, buy at 132.60, stop/reverse below 132.15, for 134.25.
 EURGBP: Flat. Sell at .8500, stop above .8535, for .8430.

Hierarchy Grid

Source: Credit Suisse

CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS

BEYOND INFORMATION®
Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access

04 November 2013

EURUSD

Daily

Resistance

1.3503, 1.3537/40, 1.3558, 1.3590*, 1.3625, 1.3657,
1.3716*, 1.3740/45*, 1.3785*, 1.3814/18*

Support

1.3442/37**, 1.3429/21**, 1.3386/82*, 1.3373,
1.3354, 1.3338/36, 1.3294, 1.3254*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The collapse has extended to key price, 38.2%
retracement and 55-day average support at 1.3473/21.
EURUSD has seen another sharp collapse following its
rejection of key 61.8% retracement resistance at 1.3835,
and weakness has extended to what we view as more
important support at 1.3473/21 – the September and
October lows, August high, “neckline” support, rising 55-day
average, 38.2% retracement of the entire July/October rally.
We would look for an attempt to hold here. Below would
mark a more important top, for the rising long-term 200-day
average at 1.3220.
Resistance moves to 1.3558 initially, with a break above
1.3590 needed to ease the immediate bearish bias for a
recovery back to 1.3657.
Strategy: Long from 1.3475, stop/reverse below 1.3420, for
1.3590.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDJPY

Daily

Resistance

98.86, 99.01**, 99.13/19*, 99.36, 99.68*, 99.78/88*,
99.99**, 100.19, 100.38, 100.62**

Support

98.68/66, 98.42, 98.24, 97.99, 97.81/80*, 97.56**,
97.46/41*, 97.20, 96.95*, 96.76, 96.57**, 96.09/06*

A bullish “outside range” day should see strength
extend above 99.01.
USDJPY not only held support at 97.84/80 on Friday, but the
subsequent strong rally has seen a large bullish “outside
range” day within the broader sideways range, reinforcing our
immediate positive outlook. We thus continue to look for a
test of the 99.01 pivot high, and whilst a pullback should be
allowed for, a break is expected in due course to see
strength extend to 99.67/99, with the bigger challenge still
pegged at 100.62. Bigger picture, our bias is still bullish for
an eventual retest of 103.10/74.
Support moves to 98.24, ahead of 97.99/80. Below here can
see a retest of more important price and 200-day average
support at 97.56/41.
Strategy: Long, add at 99.00, stop below 97.80 for 100.00.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

2

04 November 2013

GBPUSD

Daily

Resistance

1.5950, 1.5976, 1.5998*, 1.6012/16, 1.6038/48*,
1.6067/79*, 1.6104/20*, 1.6115/25*, 1.6145

Support

1.5917*, 1.5903, 1.5894**, 1.5885, 1.5850, 1.5839*,
1.5776*, 1.5752*, 1.5718/08**, 1.5685/80*, 1.5641

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

A bearish “double top” would complete below 1.5894.
GBPUSD finally saw a more impulsive sell-off Friday,
achieving and then removing with ease the 1.5972/71
measured objective from the top. This leaves the market
undergoing a test of more important levels at 1.5917/5894 –
the October low and 55-day average. Whilst we would expect
this to be defended on the first test, a break would mark the
completion of an important “double top” targeting 1.5718/08
initially, ahead of 1.5526.
Resistance at 1.5998 ideally caps to keep the immediate risk
lower. Above can see strength back to 1.6038/48. Beyond
1.6079 though remains needed to aim back at 1.6115/25.
Strategy: Short from 1.6120 took profit at 1.5975. Try a long
at 1.5910, stop/reverse below 1.5890. Reverse longs/go
short at 1.6000, stop above 1.6070.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

USDCHF

Daily

Resistance.

.9143/53**, .9175/79**, .9184*, .9200, .9240*,
53**, .9281*, .9320*, .9343, .9372

.92

Support

.9114, .9085, .9070/65, .9045, .9028/22, .8989/87*, .
8951/44*, .8918, .8893/90*, .8862**, .8848, .8761

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

Above .9179 would see a base established.
USDCHF has maintained the strong tone following its break
above 21-day average, retracement and price resistance
at .9025/47, easily clear .9107 (the 38.2% retracement of the
Sept/Oct sell-off) for a test of the falling 55-day average
at .915/49. With the .9179 October high not far above, we
would expect better selling to show here. Above .9179 would
mark the completion of a more important base, for .9253.
Support shows first at .970/65, below which can ease the
immediate upside boas for .9028/22, potentially .8989/87.
Strategy: Short at .9145, stop/reverse above .9180. Cover
shorts at .9030.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

3

04 November 2013

AUDUSD

Daily

Resistance

9492/96, .9533*, .9548/55, .9586, .9624/34*, .9673*,
.9697*, .9716, .9730**, .9758**, .9793**

Support

.9427/22**, .9407, .9390/88*, .9372, .9352,
/25**, .9289/81**, .9226/23*

.9330

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The decline has extended to the 38.2% retracement of
the August/October rally at .9427.
AUDUSD has finally extended its decline to our .9427 core
target – the 38.2% retracement of the August/October rally –
and with price support just below at .9407/.9390, we still look
for an attempt to base here. Should weakness directly extend,
this should see a test of the rising 55-day average at .9335/25
next, ahead of .9281 and then .9223.
Near-term resistance moves to .9492/96, then .9533, above
which remains needed for a small base for a recovery back
to .9548/55. Above .9624/34 is needed to ease the bearish
tone.
Strategy: Long, stop below .9390, for .9600.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

NZDUSD

Daily

Resistance

.8291, .8312, .8327/40*, .8352/62*, .8381/89*, .8411 .
8447*, .8426, .8474, .8521/24,.8545*, .8559*

Support

.8245, .8210, .8194/93*, .8182/64**, .8133*, .8095,
.8071, .8049, .8036*, .8013/02

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We still look for a basing effort at solid support
at .8194/64.
NZDUSD has retested and again held basing support
at .8194/64 – the 200-day average and the top of the
May/August base. We continue to look for buying here, for a
better floor, and an attempt to turn higher again. Near-term
resistance remains at .8312, above which should ease the
immediate downside bias for .8327/40. Above here is
needed to mark a better low, for .8362/67.
Below .8164 can warn of a more significant bear trend and
further weakness to 50% retracement support at .8133 next.
Strategy: Short covered at .8235 target and reversed back
long, stop/reverse below .8164, for .8380.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

4

04 November 2013

USDCAD

Daily

Resistance

1.0455/65, 1.0492/0502**, 1.0513/18, 1.0544,
1.0561*, 1.0579**

Support

1.0409/08*, 1.0395*, 1.0382/61*, 1.0356/54,
1.0318/12*, 1.0283/80*, 1.0253/49**

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

We continue to look for a retracement to 1.0364/54,
where we look for a base and a turn higher again.
USDCAD remains under pressure after achieving and the
rejecting our initial target at chart and trendline resistance at
1.0500/02. With a small top in place we maintain our
immediate bearish bias for a break below the recent low, 13day average and 38.2% retracement support at 1.0409/08,
for 1.0395, then the 50% retracement of the recent bounce at
1.0364/54. We look for a base here, and a turn higher again.
Above 1.0455/65 can aim back at 1.0498/1.0502 again.
Beyond here can see the recovery back on track for 1.0569.
Strategy: Flat, try a long at 1.0370, stop below 1.0313, for
1.0500.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

EURJPY

Daily

Resistance

133.42, 133.60/70*, 134.04, 134.26/38*, 135.75*,
135.93/136.00*, 136.52*, 136.82

Support

132.85, 132.65/60*, 132.45, 132.24**, 131.82,
131.53/47, 131.24/12**, 130.62, 130.22, 129.91*

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

55-day average and uptrend support is holding for now.
A quiet session for EURJPY on Friday and then overnight, as
the market consolidate after testing and holdings its rising 55day average at 132.65/60. A deeper bounce should be
allowed for, but strength for now will be seen as corrective
ahead of a break below 132.60 for a test of trend support
from June, currently seen at 132.24. Whilst we would look for
better buyers to show here, a break can warn of a more
significant break lower, for 131.53/47 next.
Resistance shows at 133.42 initially, ahead of 133.60/70
which we look to ideally cap. Above can see a move back to
134.26/38.
Strategy: Flat, buy at 132.60, stop/reverse below 132.15, for
134.25.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

5

04 November 2013

EURGBP

Daily

Resistance

.8479, .8499/.8504, .8519*, .8532, .8569, .8580*,
.8605**, .8630*, .8653**, .8678, .8700, .8731*

Support

.8452, .8444/41*, .8430/22**, .8405, .8393/91*,
77, .8366, .8322**, .8315, .8285*

.83

Resistance/Support tables rank level importance by stars *,**, to *** being most important

The break of .8519 sets a better top.
A quiet session to end the week following the earlier sharp
collapse, and this leaves the immediate risk lower for a test
of the .8430/22 recent lows. While we would expect a bounce
here, we suspect a bigger top may be forming. Below .8422
would add weight to this scenario, to re-open a move to
the .8332 low from early October.
Resistance shows at .8479 initially, with .8499/.8504 now
ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above can
see a recovery back to .8519, then .8532.
Strategy: Flat. Sell at .8500, stop above .8535, for .8430.
View

1 day



1 week



1 month



Source: CQG, Credit Suisse

FX Daily

6


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