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Purchasing Managers’ Index®
MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 09:30 (UK), 5 November 2013
Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI
New business rises at survey record pace during October
Data collected 11-22 October
A number of panellists added that the housing
market remained a source of growth.
Fastest rise in business activity since May 1997
Strong rise in new work supports sharpest rise
in activity for over 16 years
Backlogs of work and employment both
Cost inflation accelerates on back of higher
utility and wage bills
The UK service sector maintained its recent run of
strong growth during October, with activity
expanding at the fastest pace since May 1997 as
levels of incoming new business rose at a survey
record rate. Capacity was subsequently tested, with
backlogs increasing at a sharp pace. Companies
responded by adding to their payrolls, and the rate
of growth was the best seen in nearly sixteen-anda-half years.
New business growth accelerates to the highest
in over 17 years of data collection
The headline seasonally adjusted Business Activity
Index reached a level of 62.5 in October. That was
an improvement on September’s 60.3 and
represented the sharpest rise in activity signalled by
the survey since May 1997.
Service sector activity has risen continuously
throughout 2013 to date and generally at an
accelerated rate. This has largely been the result of
rising levels of incoming new business placed with
service providers as market sentiment has
improved in line with a strengthened economic
October was no different. Latest data showed
incoming new work rising at the sharpest rate
recorded in the survey history (data have been
collected since July 1996). Additional marketing
was reportedly a factor helping firms take
advantage of the improved business environment.
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ONS Index of Services (IoS) growth rates based on weighted
data covering Accommodation & Food Services, Transport,
Storage, Information & Communications Services, Finance, Real
Estate, Professional, Admin & Support Services and Other
© Markit Economics Limited 2013
Sharply rising volumes of new business added to
capacity pressures at UK service providers.
Backlogs of work increased for a seventh
successive month, with the rate of growth the
strongest recorded since May 1997.
Markedly higher workloads encouraged companies
to add to their payroll numbers in October. The rate
of growth was also the best since May 1997 as
panellists sought to service contracts in a timely
fashion and fill recently created vacancies.
Employment has now risen for ten months in
Service providers responded with modest price
increases of their own. Output charges rose in
October for the fifth month in succession and at the
strongest pace since May 2011.
Employment levels rise at fastest rate in nearly
Companies also retained a positive outlook, with
over 50% of panellists indicating expectations of a
rise in activity from present levels in 12 months’
time. The recent strengthening of demand and
activity underpinned confidence, with growth in the
coming year expected to come from both domestic
and overseas sources. There were also some
mentions that an improved performance of the UK
property market is also likely to bolster activity.
On the price front, rising energy, fuel and utility bills
drove up input cost inflation to the highest in eight
months. Wages were also reported to be higher on
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at survey
“The UK economic recovery moved up a gear again
in October, with the PMIs indicating record growth
of output and employment. The all-sector PMI,
measuring business activity across the UK private
sector economy, hit an all-time high of 61.5 in
October, up from 60.2 in September.
“Historical comparisons of the PMI against gross
domestic product suggest the latest survey data are
consistent with a 1.3% quarterly rate of GDP
growth, up sharply from previous quarters. The
surveys also indicate that the rate of private sector
job creation is currently running in excess of
100,000 per quarter.
“Manufacturing, services and construction all
continued to see very strong rates of expansion,
pointing to an ongoing broad-based upturn.
However, it is the services sector which – due to its
sheer size – is the major driving force behind
economic growth at the moment.
“The buoyant survey data are likely to encourage
the Bank of England to raise its forecasts for
economic growth when it publishes its new
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projections in November. The Bank is also likely to
unemployment will fall below 7%, the threshold
needed to be reached before the Bank will consider
raising interest rates.”
David Noble, Chief Executive Officer at the
Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply:
construction, the services sector hit a record high in
October in new business growth and the best rise in
activity since May 1997, rounding off a sparkling
start to Q4 for the UK economy. Confidence is high
that this run of growth can be maintained
throughout the final quarter, underpinned by the
stable economic climate and improvements in the
“Added to the sharp rise of volume in new business,
backlogs of work rose at the strongest rate since
May 1997. With capacity being tested, firms have
sought to keep increasing their staff numbers, with
employment levels rising for a tenth consecutive
month and also at the sharpest rate since the
spring of 1997.
© Markit Economics Limited 2013
“Input costs, especially utility and energy prices,
continued to increase in October, putting pressure
on margins. The steady rate of growth has given
service providers enough confidence to partly
reflect these higher costs in their own prices. How
this price front evolves in the coming months could
become an increasingly watched area and play an
important role in shaping future growth prospects.”
The December Report on Services will be published on Wednesday 4 December 2013 at 09:30
For economics comments, data and technical queries, please call:
Tel: +44 20 7260 2047
Mobile : +44 781 581 2162
For industry comments, please call:
Tel: +44 1780 761576
Hill & Knowlton Strategies
Tel: +44 (0)20 7413 3217
Notes to Editors:
Where appropriate, please refer to the survey as the Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI®.
The Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI covers transport & communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services,
computing & IT and hotels & restaurants.
Each response received is weighted each month according to the size of the company to which the questionnaire refers and the contribution
to total service sector output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. This therefore ensures that replies from larger
companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than replies from small companies.
The results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change
on the previous month. From these percentages an index is derived such that a level of 50.0 signals no change on the previous month.
Above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or deterioration). The greater the divergence from 50.0, the
greater the rate of change signalled.
The indexes are calculated by assigning weights to the percentages: the percentage of respondents reporting an "improvement/increase"
are given a weight of 1.0, the percentage reporting "no change" are given a weight of 0.5 and the percentage reporting a
"deterioration/decrease" are given a weight of 0.0. Thus, if 100% of the survey panel report an "increase", the index would read 100. If 100%
reported "no change" the index would read 50 (100 x 0.5), and so on.
Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as
appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first
published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact
Markit is a leading, global financial information services company with over 3,000 employees. The company provides independent data,
valuations and trade processing across all asset classes in order to enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency.
Its client base includes the most significant institutional participants in the financial market place. For more information please see
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© Markit Economics Limited 2013
Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) surveys are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions including the Eurozone. They are
the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their
ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply (CIPS) is the world’s largest procurement and supply professional organisation. It is the
worldwide centre of excellence on purchasing and supply management issues. CIPS has a global community of 100,000 in 150 countries,
including senior business people, high-ranking civil servants and leading academics. The activities of procurement and supply chain
professionals have a major impact on the profitability and efficiency of all types of organisation and CIPS offers corporate solutions
packages to improve business profitability.
The intellectual property rights to the UK Services PMI provided herein is owned by Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but
not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not
have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or
delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential
damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index® and PMI® are registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited. Markit and
the Markit logo are registered trade marks of Markit Group Limited.
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© Markit Economics Limited 2013