Intel Yan Borodovsky SPIE 2006 .pdf

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Marching to the Beat of
Moore’s Law
Yan Borodovsky
Portland Technology Development
Intel Corporation
Hillsboro, Oregon, USA

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

1

“ The Definition of “Moore’s Law” has
come to refer to almost anything related
to the semiconductor industry that when
plotted on semi-log paper approximates a
straight line”
Gordon Moore
Plenary Talk
February 19, 1995
E-Beam, X-Ray, EUV and I-beam
Lithography for Manufacturing V
Santa Clara, Ca USA
SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

2

Moore’s 1965 insight:
“ I wanted to get across the idea that integrated
circuits were a way to make electronics cheap.
You could see the technology was going to let
you make more complex things and the costs
were going to go down.
That was really the message I wanted to get
across.”
Gordon Moore
San Jose Mercury News
April 2, 2005
SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

3

Exponential Complexity Growth
Intel Microprocessors Complexity 1971 -2006
N

Intel®ItaniumTM2 (90nm)

Transistors Count

Intel®Itanium®2
Intel®Itanium®2

Intel®Pentium®
Intel486TM
Intel386TM

Intel®PreslerTM
Intel®

CoreTMDuo

Intel®Pentium®4
Intel®Pentium®II

109
108
107

Intel®Pentium®III

106

286

105

8086
4004

104

8080

8008

1970

1975

103
1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

2010

2015

4

Exponential Complexity Growth
Intel Microprocessors Complexity 1971 -2006
N

Intel®ItaniumTM2 (90nm)

Transistors Count

Intel®Itanium®2
Intel®Itanium®2

Intel®Pentium®
Intel486TM
Intel386TM

Intel®PreslerTM

108

Intel®

CoreTMDuo

Intel®Pentium®4
Intel®Pentium®II

109

107

Intel®Pentium®III

106

286

N=30*2^((Y-1960)/2)

8086
4004

8080

N Doubles every 2 years

8008

1970

105

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

2010

104
103

2015

5

Exponential Cost Reduction
Cost per Transistor

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

6

Exponential Cost Reduction
Cost per Transistor

$/N=$30*2^-((Y-1960)/1.55)

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

7

Exponential Cost Reduction
Cost per Transistor

$/N halves every 19.6 month)

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

8

Exponential Cost Reduction
Value to End User

With permission from
IC Knowledge LLC

SPIE Microlithography 2006, San Jose, Ca USA

9


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