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THE MORNING BENCHMARK
TRADEWEB, IFR MARKETS AND REUTERS

EUROPEAN EDITION

BENCHMARKS (10 year)

Tuesday, January 7, 2014

TOP NEWS
 Yellen punches through 'glass ceiling' at U.S. Fed

Country

Price

Price Change

Yield

Yield change

US

98.27

0.06

2.95

-0.01

 German price data adds to euro zone deflation concerns

Germany

100.81

0.00

1.91

0.00

 U.S. services sector slows in Dec, factory orders rise

UK

93.95

-0.01

2.98

0.00

 UK finance minister wants more welfare cuts, provoking coa-

Japan

99.03

0.22

0.70

-0.02

China

95.36

-0.60

4.68

0.08

Hong Kong

96.05

0.25

2.41

-0.03

Singapore

102.15

0.40

2.49

-0.05

CURRENCIES

lition row

 U.S. Senate delays vote on jobless bill until Tuesday
 Merkel breaks pelvis as her new German coalition bickers

as of latest reported

AMERICA CLOSE

Present

Prior

% chng

Yr-high

Yr-low

EUR/USD

1.3620

1.3627

-0.0500

1.3775

1.3572

GBP/USD

1.6395

1.6404

-0.0400

1.6603

1.6339

USD/CHF

0.9055

0.9040

0.1700

0.9070

0.8910

USD/JPY

104.51

104.21

0.29

105.44

103.92

EUR/CHF

1.2336

1.2318

0.1500

1.2340

1.2267

U.S. Yield
Yield-percent

U

5
4
3
2

ECONOMIC WATCH
GMT

Indicators

1

Unit Reuters

Prior

0745 FR Consumer Confidence

--

84

84

0855 DE Unemployment change sa

K

0

10

0855 DE Unemployment total nsa

Mln

2.9

2.806

0855 DE Unemployment Rate sa

%

6.9

6.9

1000

EZ Inflation flash yy

1330 US Intl Trade

%

0.9

0.9

Bln

-40

-40.64

0
3M

6M

1Y

2Y

3Y

5Y

7Y

10Y

30Y

EUROPE CLOSE

Regional Yield
Yield-percent

U.S. FACTORY ORDERS

EUR

4

Click on the chart for full-size image

GBP

3
2
1
0
-1

1M

6M

2Y

4Y

6Y

8Y

10Y

20Y

50Y

 For stories from IFR Markets click here
 For Tradeweb Markets update click here
 For Thomson Reuters Biggest CDS, Loans and Bonds
Movers click here

1

THE MORNING BENCHMARK

January 7, 2014

TOP NEWS FROM REUTERS
Yellen punches through 'glass ceiling' at U.S. Fed

German price data adds to euro zone deflation concerns

Janet Yellen -- a skilled economist and gifted communicator
who likes to hike and cook -- made history on Monday as the
U.S. Senate confirmed her to be the first woman to lead the
Federal Reserve in its 100-year history.
"Her well-deserved ascension to the chair knocks a notable hole
in the glass ceiling that has for far too long kept women from the
most powerful jobs in the country," AFL-CIO President Richard
Trumka said in a statement.
Terry O'Neill, president of the National Organization for Women,
a liberal advocacy group, told Reuters she hoped Yellen's confirmation would pave the way for other women to climb to the
top rungs of finance.
"The financial industry is a place where women have been aggressively excluded from the top, top management," O'Neill
said. "Janet Yellen can make a difference."
Senator Lisa Murkowski, one of the 11 Republicans who voted
for Yellen, expressed the same hope.
"I wish that we had more senior women in these financial circles," she said. "And perhaps with her leadership that will act as
a motivator to young women to get into the field."

A closely-watched measure of German inflation decelerated
sharply in December to 1.2 percent, adding to fears of deflationary pressure across Europe.
Economists said the slowdown was in part due to a change in
methodology but the numbers may still add pressure on the
European Central Bank to take some action to stave off any
deflation threat.
The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) - the measure
of inflation used by the ECB - showed inflation slowing to 1.4
percent year-on-year in December, undershooting the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and down from 1.6
percent in November.
Data due on Tuesday is forecast to show euro zone inflation
steady at 0.9 percent in December for the second month. A drop
to 0.7 percent in October prompted an interest rate cut.
The HICP for the full-year 2013 decelerated to 1.6 percent from
2.1 percent in 2012. The statistics office said cheaper oil in the
light of the weaker world economy had driven the deceleration
in 2013 inflation.

U.S. services sector slows in Dec, factory orders rise

UK finance minister wants more welfare cuts, provoking
coalition row

Two measures of activity in the U.S. services sector showed
slower growth in December, pointing to an economy that continues to expand at a modest pace, while factory orders rose in
November.
The pace of growth in the U.S. services sector slowed for a second straight month in December with business activity expanding at a lower rate and new orders contracting, according to the
Institute for Supply Management.
ISM's index fell to 53 last month from 53.9 in November, dropping to its lowest reading since June 2013 and under expectations for a read of 54.5.
Separately, financial data firm Markit said its services sector
Purchasing Managers Index eased slightly from the prior month,
slipping by 0.2 point to 55.7 in the month.
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed new
orders for factory goods rebounded in November, rising 1.8 percent, as had been forecast.

Britain's finance minister announced major cuts to the country's
future welfare spending on Monday, spelling out the next phase
of a push to fix public finances and straining ties within the coalition government.
With an election due in 16 months and the government facing
calls to put more money in people's pockets after years of austerity, George Osborne rammed home his message that the
only way to return the economy to health was to fix its finances.
"As we start the New Year, I want to warn you about a dangerous new complacency around at the moment," he said in a
speech at a car-parts plant in Birmingham, central England.
"You hear some talking as if the hard part of the job is done,
and we can go back to the bad old habits."
Osborne, a Conservative, said he wanted to slash 12 billion
pounds ($19.73 billion) from the country's annual welfare budget
by the 2017/18 fiscal year, accounting for about half of an overall 25 billion pounds in annual cuts he said was needed to reduce borrowing and help balance Britain's budget.

U.S. Senate delays vote on jobless bill until Tuesday
Merkel breaks pelvis as her new German coalition bickers
With many lawmakers unable to get to Washington because of
record freezing temperatures, the U.S. Senate abruptly postponed until Tuesday a vote on a White House-backed bill to
extend jobless benefits for 1.3 million Americans.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid obtained the surprise delay
on Monday just as the chamber was expected to begin a roll-call
vote on whether to start consideration of the measure.
Assistant Senate Republican Leader John Cornyn of Texas
accused Reid of pushing ahead with a vote because he was
more interested in the politics of the issue than helping the jobless.
"This ought to be postponed to a later time when we could have
a real debate" about how to "pay for an extension of jobless
benefits and how to get the economy growing," Cornyn said.
Reid then rose and, without objection, got the vote reset for 10
a.m. on Tuesday. A Senate aide said Democrats believe they
are within one or two votes of getting 60.
If Democrats fall short, they may agree to Republicans demands
for some sort of spending cuts to cover the cost of extending the
program without increasing the record federal debt, aides said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has broken her pelvis in a
cross-country skiing accident, forcing her to call off some foreign
visits and official appointments just when she needs to bed
down her fractious new coalition government.
Merkel, 59, is using crutches after her accident in Switzerland
over the Christmas holidays and will have to take it easy for the
next three weeks, her spokesman said on Monday.
Merkel's accident had occurred "at low speed" but what had at
first seemed to be heavy bruising turned out to be a partial fracture, said spokesman Steffen Seibert. "The chancellor is of
course able to work and is in full communication," he added.
She has postponed a visit to Warsaw scheduled for Wednesday
and a meeting in Berlin with Luxembourg's new prime minister,
Xavier Bettel. But Seibert said she will lead her first cabinet
meeting of 2014 on Wednesday.

2

THE MORNING BENCHMARK

January 7, 2014

MORNING MEETING FROM IFR MARKETS
THE EUROPEAN MORNING MEETING

taking 10s below 3% into the London trade. The rally continued
into the NY chute with shorts picking at offers soon spilling into
short covering stop outs at the regular futures open which led
10s to pierce 2.97%.
• Into the building rally sellers gave it another go but before 10s
could get back near even 2.99% short covering resumed on the
worse than expected ISM Services headline that sunk to 53 vs
expected 54.5. 10s zipped to new lows below 2.96% but again
sellers returned on the view that the employment component
was better than the headline suggested.
• Traders' view of the data no longer mattered as stocks were
sinking, for a third consecutive day demonstrating that asset
allocation was still underway. With the NASDAQ100 down about
25 handles 10s plumbed their lows of 2.945%, which was a bullish break below a triple bottom formed on multiple tests of the
2.97%/2.965% zone.
• Later in the afternoon there was a sharp recovery in stocks
that yanked yields on 10s back towards the break area of
2.965%. Earlier amidst the rally key reversals were evident from
5s to 30s but as of this writing the stock rebound jeopardized
some of these technical readings.

Investor caution was seen ahead of key events later in the
week. US data was mixed - Wall St fell after weaker than expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI but the losses were contained by better than expected Factory Orders data - the S&P
500 index closed -0.1%. Treasury yields eased in relatively light
trading - bargain hunters have been buying after the late 2013
sell off. Also helping is a sluggish start to the year for equities
and uncertainty on just how aggressive the Fed will taper bond
purchases given the mixed data. Yields on 10s closed 3 bps
lower at 2.96%.
Asian stocks are modestly lower after yesterday's nasty selloff
in China and Japan - the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is currently
-0.2% while the Nikkei 225 index is -0.2% and the Shanghai
Composite index is -0.5%. Australia's ASX 200 index is +0.4% a trade balance of -A$118 mln with expectations of -300 mln
was reported. S&P 500 futures are +0.1% while yields on Treasury 10s are just below the NY close - currently at 2.95%.
OVERNIGHT PRESS
• Wall St dips for third straight day after mixed data
• US services sector slows in December, factory orders rise
• Gold shakes off early tumble and rises as shares ease
• Cash crunch signals policy dilemma for China's reformist central bank
• China makes fresh bid to curb shadow banking, contain debt
risk
• China approves pilot plan to set up 3-5 private banks
• Yellen approved to head Fed; only Republicans vote 'No'
• New regulator Watt signal shift in US housing policy
• Polar freeze grips United States, disrupting travel, business
• Samsung Electronics Q4 guidance widely misses street estimates
• US Senate delays vote on jobless bill until Tuesday
• Germany's price data adds to euro zone deflation concerns
• Ireland to test markets with first post-bailout bond

OVERNIGHT EVENTS
• Australia Nov balance goods/svcs a$-118 mln, s/adj (Reuters
poll: deficit a$300 mln)
• Australia Nov goods/services exports 0 pct m/m, seasonally
adjusted
• Australia Nov goods/services imports -1 pct m/m, seasonally
adjusted
• Philippine central bank governor says prepared to enter forex
market if necessary
• Cash crunch signals policy dilemma for China’s reformist
c.bank – RTRS
• Yellen approved to head Fed; only Republicans vote 'no' –
RTRS
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:30 SEK Services PMI
• 07:45 France Consumer Confidence
• 08:55 German Unemployment
• 10:00 EZ Inflation Flash

LATE TREASURY SESSION
• Treasuries staged an impressive rally in what was one of the
first trading days of 2014 that likely had most market participants back in the saddle.
• 10s tagged 3.017% as Japanese investors bought the belly

richard.sexton@thomsonreuters.com

3

THE MORNING BENCHMARK

January 7, 2014

EUROPEAN CDS LOOK AHEAD FROM IFR MARKETS
Published on Jan 6

Area-wide inflation, which was the catalyst for the ECB’s rate
cut in November, will probably be the highlight of the morning
session, especially ahead of the latest thoughts of Draghi and
co later on in the week. The US session will see some Fed
speak when San Francisco’s Williams makes a speech on the
economy in Phoenix.
In reality, though, we are likely to be in wait and see mode.
That, however, could provide a window of opportunity in the
primary markets, and we can expect a deluge of issuance as
borrowers look to get in before that event risk.

Look out for:
A day to batten down the hatches.
The last few days have seen storms raging on both sides of the
Atlantic. In the US, a polar vortex has seen temperatures plunging to potentially record breaking lows in the mid-West, while the
Eastern seaboard remains under a thick blanket of snow. In the
UK, the latest in a series of storms has left the countryside saturated, with a plethora of flood warnings in place.
So, many people on both sides of the pond have been left to
batten down the hatches and ride out the storm. And it may well
be more of the same in financial markets on Tuesday.
On the horizon we have the FOMC minutes and ADP Employment on Wednesday. The latest decisions from the BoE and
ECB, peripheral and core supply and the start of the Q4 US
earnings season all fall on Thursday. And on Friday we have the
little matter of the US employment report.
Much to digest, then. And ahead of all of that event risk, it is
unlikely that we will see a major directional move, although we
might see some profits taken after the strong end to 2013 and
relatively solid start to the New Year.

ECONOMIC DATA:
It is a relatively quiet data session in the US, with the only numbers of note coming in the form of the International Trade Balance and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for January.
Over in Europe we get French Consumer Confidence for December at 0745 GMT, which is expected at 84. That is followed
by German Unemployment at 0855 GMT, where the rate is expected to remain at 6.9%. Flash area-wide inflation at 1000
GMT, is expected to remain at 0.9%.
CORPORATE EARNINGS/ EVENTS:
There are no iTraxx constituents meeting or reporting on Tuesday.

View The Morning Benchmark information in real-time
Please use the following chart to access the related news and data from The Morning Benchmark newsletter within your Thomson
Reuters product.
IFR Markets Services Guide

<IFRINDEY>

Main Tradeweb Content Guide

<TRADEWEB>

IFR Global Rates Newswire

[IFRR]

Tradeweb Swaps Guide

<TWEBSWAPS>

IFR Credit Newswire

[IFRC]

Tradeweb Euro Gov’t Debt Guide

<TWEBEURO>

News Search for Morning Meeting articles

IFR and “Morning Meeting”

Tradeweb JGB’s Guide

<TWEBJGB>

News Search for IFR Tradeweb articles

IFR and “Tradeweb”

Tradeweb Agency Guide *

<TWEBAGENCY>

News Search for Credit Open articles

IFR and “Credit Open”

Tradeweb TBA MBS Guide *

<TWEBMBS>

News Search for IFR Govts articles

IFR and “GOVTS”

TR EOD CDS Data

<REUTERSCDS>

Main CDS Guide

<CDSINDEX>

Corporate Bond Guide

<US/CORP1>

* = Fee-liable service
All codes in <> should be entered in a quote browser.
All codes in "" should be entered in a news browser.

4

THE MORNING BENCHMARK

January 7, 2014

TRADEWEB MARKETS

AS OF 6:00 AM GMT

EURO SOVEREIGNS - 2YR - Current

EURO SOVEREIGNS - 5YR - Current

EURO SOVEREIGNS - 10YR - Current

Country Coupon

Close

Country Coupon Close

Country Coupon Close

UK

4.75

0.527

-0.017

0.309

UK

1.25

1.788

-0.021

0.893

UK

2.25

2.979

-0.042

1.074

DE

0.00

0.218

-0.006

0.000

DE

1.00

0.895

0.026

0.000

DE

2.00

1.905

0.033

0.000

FR

0.25

0.295

-0.010

0.077

FR

1.00

1.182

0.014

0.287

FR

1.75

2.330

0.020

0.425

IT

3.00

1.158

-0.175

0.940

IT

3.50

2.535

-0.071

1.640

IT

4.50

3.937

-0.025

2.032

AT

3.50

0.221

-0.026

0.003

AT

1.15

1.091

-0.047

0.196

AT

1.75

2.241

-0.070

0.336

BE

3.75

0.285

-0.053

0.067

BE

1.25

1.181

-0.037

0.286

BE

2.25

2.547

-0.095

0.642

ES

2.75

1.087

-0.188

0.869

ES

3.75

2.828

-1.693

1.933

ES

4.40

3.905

0.028

2.000

FI

4.25

0.197

-0.031

0.021

FI

1.13

1.034

0.018

0.139

FI

1.50

2.112

-0.147

0.207

GR

-

-

-

-

GR

-

-

-

-

GR

2.00

8.316

-0.522

6.411

IE

4.50

0.707

-0.488

0.489

IE

5.50

1.745

-0.471

0.850

IE

3.90

3.563

-1.605

1.658

PT

3.35

2.885

-0.467

2.667

PT

4.45

4.599

-1.046

3.704

PT

4.95

5.742

-1.160

3.837

DK

2.50

0.320

0.000

0.102

DK

4.00

1.167

0.000

0.272

DK

1.50

1.973

0.000

0.068

SE

4.50

0.813

0.002

0.595

SE

4.25

1.774

0.016

0.879

SE

1.50

2.504

0.025

0.599

U.S. TREASURIES
Bid

Change Spread-DE

Ask

<0#USBMK=TWEB>
Change
Yield

JGBs
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
20-Year
30-Year
40-Year

2-Year

99.711

99.719

0.397

0.000

3-Year

99.625

99.633

0.754

-0.003

5-Year

99.109

99.125

1.687

-0.008

7-Year

100.016

100.031

2.373

-0.007

10-Year
30-Year

98.266
97.453

98.281
97.484

2.954
3.895

-0.007
-0.002

EUR IRS

<TWEBIRS>
Close

2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year

Change
0.100
0.300
0.700
0.400

0.313
0.340
0.340
-0.012

EUR SWAP SPREADS-Current
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year

Bid
0.520
1.231
2.137

Ask
0.525
1.236
2.142

EUR OIS - Prev. Close
1M
2M
3M
4M
5M
6M
9M
12M

Close
0.140
0.144
0.144
0.145
0.144
0.144
0.145
0.147

Change
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

GBP IRS
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year

<TWEBIRS>
Close
0.437
0.256
-0.039
-0.257

USD IRS

Change
0.800
0.150
0.100
0.000

2-Year
5-Year
10-Year

Bid
0.950
2.033
2.929

Ask

100.009
99.887
99.042
100.593
99.683
103.800

100.027
99.951
99.153
100.900
100.000
104.287

<TWEBIRS>
Change
0.200
0.450
0.050
0.000

USD SWAP SPREADS-Current

Ask
0.960
2.045
2.939

Bid
0.499
1.742
3.019

2-Year
5-Year
10-Year

Ask
0.504
1.747
3.024

USD OIS - Prev. Close

GBP OIS - Prev. Close
Close
0.422
0.422
0.421
0.423
0.425
0.426
0.443
0.470

Bid

Close
0.102
0.053
0.066
-0.030

2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year

GBP SWAP SPREADS-Current

1M
2M
3M
4M
5M
6M
9M
12M

Change Spread-DE

Change
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000

5

1M
2M

Close
0.086
0.090

Change
-0.001
-0.004

3M
4M
5M
6M
9M
12M

0.092
0.095
0.098
0.102
0.114
0.131

-0.003
-0.003
-0.003
-0.004
-0.002
-0.003

Change Spread-DE

<0#JPBMK=TWEB>
Change
Yield
0.095
0.223
0.703
1.561
1.716
1.737

0.006
0.054
0.230
0.244
0.256
0.289

JPY IRS
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year

<TWEBIRS>
Bid
0.120
0.168
0.200
0.175

Ask
0.122
0.169
0.204
0.167

JPY SWAP SPREADS-Current
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year

Bid
0.208
0.380
0.895

Ask
0.213
0.385
0.901

CDS - EUROPE iTraxx -Prev. Close
EUR-5Y
EUR-10Y
XOVER-5yr

Bid
68.938
117.500
278.000

Ask
69.438
118.000
280.000

HiVol-5yr

99.000

104.000

CDS - U.S. Prev. Close
Bid

Ask

IG.20-3Y

46.171

53.409

IG.20-5Y

55.999

65.487

IG.20-7Y
IG.20-10Y

110.500
107.850

110.500
125.400

THE MORNING BENCHMARK

January 7, 2014

THOMSON REUTERS CDS BIGGEST MOVERS - January 6
Markit Intra-day prices. Convention spread for lower risk entities is based off the 100bp fixed coupon, while the convention spread for higher risk entities is based off the 500bp fixed coupon.

CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - LOWER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)

CREDIT DETERIORATION - LOWER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are <500bps)

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

Name

RIC

ConvSprd % Chg

Name

RIC

ConvSprd % Chg

TEVA PHARM IND
TYCO INTL

TEVA5YUSAC=MG

69.75

-8.26

AIRBUS GROUP

AERM5YEUAM=MG

63.75

TYC5YUSAX=MG

44.50

-4.69

UNILEVER NV

UN5YEUAM=MG

24.75

9.18

STANDARD CHARTER

STAC5YEUAM=MG

96.50

-3.98

PUBLICIS GROUPE

PUBP5YEUAM=MG

36.84

8.34

NOVARTIS

NOVB5YEUAM=MG

22.25

-3.26

DENMARK

DKGV5YUSAC=MG

20.50

7.89

POLAND

PLGV5YUSAC=MG

77.25

-2.90

SWEDEN

SEGV5YUSAC=MG

15.25

7.02

CREDIT IMPROVEMENT - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)

14.25

CREDIT DETERIORATION - HIGHER RISK ENTITIES
(CDS whose 5Yr spreads are >=500bps)

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

Name

RIC

ConvSprd % Chg

Name

RIC

ConvSprd % Chg

GROHE HOLDING
DUBAI

GROH5YEUAM=MG
DUBA5YUSAC=MG

52.25
207.75

-9.39
-4.48

ALCATEL LUCENT

ALCA5YEUAM=MG

291.00

TUI AG

TUIG5YEUAM=MG

220.25

2.44

GREECE

GRGV5YUSAC=MG

618.94

-3.70

NXP

NXP5YEUAM=MG

216.25

2.09

UKRAINE

UAGV5YUSAC=MG

698.34

-1.64

O.T.E. TELECOM

OTE5YEUAM=MG

245.84

2.01

PORTGL TELCM FIN

PTCF5YEUAM=MG

251.75

-1.15

SUNRISE COMNCTS

SUOZ5YEUAM=MG

273.75

1.96

Avg. Bid

% Chg

2.71

THOMSON REUTERS BIGGEST LOAN MOVERS - January 6
CREDIT IMPROVEMENT

CREDIT DETERIORATION

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

EUROPE/ MID EAST/ AFRICA

Name

RIC

ALIPLAST BELGIUM

<A000FC018TB1=R>

96.67

0.69

CBR HOLDING GMBH <C000CP044TB1=R>

85.50

-1.25

CORTEFIEL SA

<C000DJ035TB3=R>

61.59

0.51

PHS GROUP PLC

<P0007Q026TC1=R>

80.19

-0.80

Avg. Bid

Name

% Chg

RIC

MONDO MINERALS O <M000E9013TB1=R>

92.75

0.36

KP1 GROUP

<K0003Z019TB1=R>

92.31

-0.74

CAMAIEU SA

<C000K1018TC3=R>

85.30

0.35

AVR HOLDING

<H0005S041TB1=R>

97.95

-0.46

FAT FACE

<F0005S019TB1=R>

89.50

0.28

FLINT GROUP

<F00053069TD1=R>

95.45

-0.38

To access Thomson Reuters CDS index and single-name data on 3000Xtra, please enter <REUTERSCDS> in a quote
object, or go to CreditViews.
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6


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