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IMP Breaking New MI 11 Poll (1) .pdf


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Exclusive: Internal Poll Shows David Trott
Defeating U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in MI-11
GOP Primary
Monday, June 30, 2014, 7:00 a.m.

An internal poll shows attorney David Trott with a double-digit lead over
U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) in the GOP primary for the 11th
Congressional District seat.
The live-operator survey taken last week by North Carolina-based National
Research Inc., was obtained by Inside Michigan Politics. IMP made the
call to run the poll because of the lack of public polling in the race and
the pollster’s record. Former New York Times analyst Nate Silver ranked
National Research near the top his list of accurate polling firms in the 2012
cycle.
Trott had 33% to Bentivolio’s 19%, giving him a 14-point lead for the Aug. 5
primary.
This GOP primary is one of the most watched in the country.Bentivolio
was elected with Tea Party support in 2012 as the only Republican on the
ballot after then U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter (R-Livonia) resigned amidst a
petition-gathering scandal. He’s been vastly outraised by Trott, an attorney
and longtime GOP fundraiser, who also has earned many high-profile
endorsements.
The MI-11 covering Wayne and Oakland counties has a 55% GOP base, so
the party is favored to keep the seat -- but it’s not guaranteed. There’s also
a tough Democratic primary mainly between former congressional candidate
Nancy Skinner, former State Department official Bobby McKenzie and Dr.
Anil Kumar.

There are still a large number of undecided voters in the poll -- 47%. But
Bentivolio will “have a very difficult time” winning their votes, according to
a memo written by Adam Geller of National Research and Stu Sandler of
Decider Strategies, a consultant for Trott.
When the pollster included voters leaning to one candidate or the other,
Trott’s lead grew to 39% to 21% for Bentivolio.
Trott polled behind Bentivolio in each of the three previous head-to-head
matchups, but “steadily improved,” the memo said.
On June 6, 2013, Trott had 8% and Bentivolio had 29%. On May 1, 2014,
Trott earned 21% and Bentivolio 30%. On May 22, 2014, the candidates
were statistically tied, with Trott at 22% and Bentivolio at 23%.
Trott’s favorables in the most recent poll were 30% favorable to 16%
unfavorable. Bentivolio’s were nearly evenly split, 28% favorable to 25%
unfavorable.
An automated poll last month from Target Insyght/Michigan Information &
Research Service had almost the opposite result in the horserace question.
Bentivolio was at 33% and Trott was at 21%.
The internal Trott survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in the MI11 was conducted between June 23 and 24, 2014. The margin of error was
4.9%.
###


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