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Commodity Research Report 12 October 2015 Ways2Capital .pdf


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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 OCT 2015 115. 111.55
95

107.15

104.95

102.75

100.55

98.35

93.95

89.55

COPPER

30 NOV 2015 380. 369.40
65

358.15

352.95

346.90

341.70

335.65

324.40

313.15

CRUDE OIL

19 OCT 2015 3563 3453

3343

3274

3233

3164

3123

3013

2903

04 DEC 2015

2745 27161
5

26867

26744

26573

26450

26279

25985

25691

30 OCT 2015 120. 116.55
30

112.80

110.45

109.05

106.70

105.30

101.55

97.80

NATURAL GAS 27 OCT 2015 171. 168.60
60

165.60

164.30

162.60

161.30

159.60

156.60

153.60

GOLD
LEAD

NICKEL

30 OCT 2015 779. 747.60
50

715.70

699.60

683.80

667.70

651.90

620

588.10

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 3887 38235
4

37596

37214

36957

36575

36318

35679

35040

ZINC

30 OCT 2015 150. 139.30
75

127.85

123.50

116.40

112.05

104.95

93.50

82.05

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

ALUMINIUM

30 OCT 2015 117.95 112.80

107.65

105.20

102.50 100.05

97.35

92.20

87.05

COPPER

30 NOV 2015 391.30 376.10

360.82

354.30

345.60

339

330.30 315.10

299.80

3785

3476

3340

3167

3031

2858

2549

2240

GOLD

04 DEC 2015 28434 29796

27158

26890

26520

26252

25882

25244

24606

LEAD

30 OCT 2015 150.60

125.40

120.30

112.80 107.70

100.20

87.60

75

167.90

165.50

162.50 160.10

157.10 151.70

CRUDE OIL

19 OCT 2015 4094

138

NATURAL GAS 27 OCT 2015 178.70 173.30
840

146.30

NICKEL

30 OCT 2015

785.40

730.80

707.20

676.20 652.60

621.60

567

512.40

SILVER

04 DEC 2015 45210 42290

39370

38100

36450

35180

33530

30610

27690

ZINC

30 OCT 2015 155.70 142.40

129.10

124.10

115.80 110.80

102.50

89.20

75.90

WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL COPPER NOV BELOW 344 TGT 334 SL 353

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY GOLD DEC ABOVE 26500 TGT 27000 SL 25959 (MADE HIGH OF 26788)

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28 OCT 2015 65.7 65.50
5

65.25

65.10

6500

64.85

64.75

64.50

64.25

GBPINR

28 OCT 2015 75.5 74.90
0

74.30

74.05

73.70

73.40

73.10

72.50

71.90

EURINR

28 OCT 2015 101. 100.80
40

100.30

99.90

99.70

99.40

99.20

99.60

98.10

JPYINR

28 OCT 2015 55.6 55.10
2015
0

54.60

54.30

54.10

53.80

53.60

53.10

52.60

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

66

65.50

65.20

64.70

64.40

63.60

62.80

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE R4

R3

USDINR

28 OCT 2015 67.6 66.80
0

GBPINR

28 OCT 2015 76.1 75.30
0

74.50

74.10

73.70

73.30

72.90

72.10

71.30

EURINR

28 OCT 2015

100.85

100.20

99.75

99.10

98.63

97.55

96.45

55

54.50

54.20

53.70

53.30

52.50

51.60

JPYINR

103 101.95

28 OCT 2015 56.7 55.90
2015
0

WEEKLY FOREX CALL
BUY GBPINR OCT ABOVE 100 TGT 101 SL 99

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY EURINR OCT ABOVE 73.75 TGT 75 SL 72.90 ( MADE HIGH OF 74 AND CLOSED AT 73.80)

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY
DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 NOV 2015

633

628

623

620

618

615

613

608

603

SYBEANIDR

20 NOV 2015

4224

4087

3950

3865

3813

3728

3676

3539

3402

RMSEED

20 NOV 2015

5120

5029

4938

4886

4847

4795

4756

4665

4574

20 NOV 2015 17076 16776

16476

16288

16176 15988 15876 15576

15276

CHANA

20 NOV 2015

5533

5409

5285

5218

5161

5094

5037

4913

4789

CASTORSEED

20 NOV 2015

4211

4186

4161

4148

4136

4123

4111

4086

4061

JEERAUNJHA

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY
DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 NOV 2015

692

667

642

629

617

604

592

567

542

SYBEANIDR

20 NOV 2015

4987

4571

4155

3968

3739

3552

3323

2907

2491

RMSEED

20 NOV 2015

5455

5248

5041

4938

4834

4731

4627

4420

4213

20 NOV 2015 17480 17035

16590

16345

16145 15900 15700 15255

14810

CHANA

20 NOV 2015

6271

5903

5535

5343

5167

4975

4799

4431

4063

CASTORSEED

20 NOV 2015

4685

4517

4349

4238

4181

4070

4013

3845

3677

JEERAUNJHA

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
BUY CHANA NOV ABOVE 5200 TGT 5330 SL 5068

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY TMC NOV ABOVE 7900 TGT 8300 SL 7544 (MADE HIGH OF 8248)

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ PRECIOUS METAL
GOLD
Gold prices fell Rs 49 to Rs 26,698 per 10 grams in futures trade today as participants trimmed
their positions, largely in tune with a weak trend overseas.In futures trading, gold for delivery
in far-month February next year was trading Rs 49, or 0.18% down, at Rs 26,698 per 10 grams
at Multi Commodity Exchange with a business turnover of 12 lots.Also, the metal for delivery
in December shed Rs 44, or 0.17%, to Rs 26,511 per 10 grams in 358 lots. Analysts said a
weakening trend in the overseas markets where gold retreated from over one-week high as
Chinese markets reopened after a long break and investors awaited minutes from the Federal
Reserve's last meeting for clues on the timing of an interest rate increase, weighed on the
futures trade here. Globally, gold fell 0.3% to $1,141.76 an ounce in Singapore. Gold ticked
higher on Friday, recovering modestly from overnight losses, but uncertainty over whether the
Federal Reserve would hike U.S. rates this year weighed on the market. Spot gold edged up 0.1
percent to $1,140.10 an ounce by 0040 GMT, after dropping 0.6 percent in the previous session
following the release of minutes from the Fed's Sept. 16-17 meeting. The metal is up 0.2
percent for the week. The Fed thought the economy was

✍ SILVER
Amid a weakening trend overseas, silver prices tumbled Rs 651 to Rs 36,850 per kg in futures
trade today as speculators cut their positions. Silver for delivery in far-month March next year
contracts was trading sharply lower by Rs 651, or 1.74%, at Rs 36,850 per kg in a business
turnover of 1,663 lots in futures trading at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).On similar
lines, the white metal for delivery in December slumped Rs 643, or 1.68%, at Rs 37,590 per kg
with a business turnover of 29 lots. In the international market, silver traded 2.5% lower at
$15.65 an ounce in Singapore. Market analysts said a weak trend in precious metals in global
markets as investors awaited minutes from the US Federal Reserve's last meeting for clues on
the timing of an interest rate increase, kept pressure on silver futures.

✍ BASE METALS
✍ COPPER
Copper futures were up 1.50% at Rs 344.95 per kg today as speculators enlarged bets, largely
in step with a firming trend in base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME). At Multi
Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in November rose Rs 5.10, or 1.50%, at Rs 344.95
per kg, in a turnover of 4,681 lots. Metal for delivery in far-month February next year also rose
Rs 4.80 to trade at Rs 350.60 per kg, with trade volume of 86 lots. Analysts said gains in
copper and other metals overseas after Glen core has cut production this year and rising
demand at the domestic spot markets influenced metal prices at futures trade here.

✍ NICKEL
Nickel prices moved up by 1.30% to Rs 678.20 per kg in futures market today after speculators
widened bets, tracking a firm trend in the spot market on increased demand from alloy makers.
At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in November gained Rs 8.70, or 1.30%, to
Rs 678.20 per kg in a business turnover of 116 lots.In a similar manner, the metal for delivery
in October rose Rs 8.30, or 1.28%, to Rs 671.30 per kg in 2,581 lots. Analysts said apart from
increased domestic demand from alloy makers and other consuming industries, strength in base
metals at the London Metal Exchange, influenced nickel futures here.

✍ LEAD
Taking positive cues from the global market and rising spot demand, lead futures traded over
2% higher at Rs 111.05 per kg today as participants enlarged positions. Lead for delivery in
October traded higher by Rs 2.35, or 2.16%, to Rs 111.05 per kg, in a business turnover of
1,847 lots in futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange.On similar lines, the metal for
delivery in November was trading higher by Rs 2.20, or 2.01%, at Rs 111.90 per kg in 101 lots.
Globally, lead gained as much as 1.9% at the London Metal Exchange (LME).Analysts said
besides better demand from battery makers in spot market, firm global trend in base metals as
commodity production were accelerating influenced lead prices at futures trade here.

✍ ZINC
Zinc futures climbed 3.78% to Rs 112.60 per kg today after speculators built up bets on the
back of a firming trend overseas amid rising demand in the domestic spot market. In futures
trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in October surged Rs 4.10, or
3.78%, to Rs 112.60 per kg, in a business turnover of 4,848 lots. Also, metal for delivery in
November contracts gained Rs 3.95, or 3.60%, at Rs 113.60 per kg, with a business volume of
165 lots. According to marketmen, a firming trend in metal at the London Metal Exchange
(LME) after Glencore Plc announced a plan to cut output by about a third, adding to signs that
some commodity producers are willing to scale back supplies to combat slumping prices and
boosting the prospects for a global deficit. Furthermore, uptick in demand at domestic spot
markets from consuming industries too supported the upside in metal prices, they said. The
metal used to galvanize steel jumped as much as 4.8 percent to $1,747 per tonne at the LME,
the highest since September 18.

✍ ENERGY
Crude oil prices rose sharply by Rs 62 to Rs 3,279 per barrel in futures trade today as
speculators widened their bets after it extended recent rally in Asia. At Multi Commodity
Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October contracts was trading higher by Rs 62, or 1.71%, at
Rs 3,279 per barrel, with a business turnover of 8,967 lots.The oil for November delivery also
moved up Rs 55, or 1.68%, to Rs 3,329 per barrel, with a business volume of 910 lots.Market

men attributed the rise in crude oil futures to a firming trend in Asian trade on hopes that
increasing demand and a decline in US crude production would ease a supply glut that has
depressed the market for more than a year. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude prices
for November delivery climbed 0.49% to $49.67 a barrel, while Brent for November also
advanced 0.45% to $53.29 a barrel in late-morning trade on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ JEERA
Jeera prices were up 0.65 per cent to Rs 16,160 per quintal in futures trade on Wednesday after
traders widened their positions taking positive cues from spot market.In futures trading at the
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in November rose Rs 105 or
0.65 per cent to Rs 16,160 per quintal with an open interest of 9,039 lots.The October contract
was trading higher by Rs 100 or 0.63 per cent to Rs 15,865 per quintal in 9,315 lots.The rise in
jeera futures prices to pick up in demand in the spot market against restricted supplies from
growing belts.

✍ MUSTARDSEED
Mustardseed futures traded Rs 67 lower at Rs 4,663 per quintal on tuesday after participants
booked profits at existing levels.Besides, rising supplies in physical market too weighed on
prices.
At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, mustardseed for October month
delivery contract slipped by Rs 67, or 1.42 per cent to Rs 4,663 per quintal, with an open
interest of 46,140 lots.The November contract lost Rs 44, or 0.91 per cent to Rs 4,794 per
quintal, in an open interest of 48,720 lots.Fall in mustardseed futures was largley due to
profit-booking by participants and rising supplies in the spot market.

✍ SOYBEAN
Soybean prices are on the rise due to lower productions estimates for this kharif season.Within
a week, prices rose 20 per cent, more than Rs 600/100 kg gains, in spot markets due to the
lower production estimates.As per latest estimates, production this kharif season is likely to
stand at 8,642,600 tonnes, compared with last year’s revised estimate of 9,000,000 tonnes. This
year, the carryover stock is likely to be 900,000 tonnes.
Initial arrivals clearly indicated lower production. in October, arrivals in Madhya Pradesh
generally stand at 400,000-500,000 bags of 100 kg each but this year, the numbers are low.
Soybean production in Madhya Pradesh is the highest in the country.Currently, arrivals across
India stand at around 550,000 bags of 100 kg each, including average daily arrivals of 250,000

bags in Madhya Pradesh and 125,000 bags in Maharashtra and 75,000 bags in Rajasthan.Prices
at mandi auctions are Rs 3,450-3,800/100 kg, while plant delivery prices are Rs
3,650-3,800/100 kg. Analysts say prices have risen more than 20 per cent on futures exchanges
compared to mid-August.Initially, production estimates were higher, due to which prices went
down in August. But later, a dry spell and lower output fears pushed up prices.
Extending its upward journey, soyabean prices rose by another Rs 96 to Rs 3,882 per quintal in
futures trading on tuesday as traders engaged in building up huge positions amid positive
overseas cues.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, soyabean delivery for
March surged Rs 96, or 2.54 per cent, to Rs 3,882 per quintal, having an open interest of 40
lots.
The November contract added Rs 12, or 0.33 per cent, to Rs 3,693 per quintal in an open
interest of 82,630 lots.Soyabean for delivery in October was trading higher by Rs 7, or 0.19 per
cent, at Rs 3,688 per quintal in an open interest of 31,480 lots.Creation of huge positions by
speculators, tracking positive overseas cues, influenced soyabean futures here.Meanwhile, all
active contracts hit upper circuit limits in yesterday's trade.
Meanwhile, the Solvents Extractors Association of India has said India’s oilmeal exports rose
four per cent to 113,913 tonnes in September compared to the year-ago period. The rise,
however, was aided by a low base, it added.Exports of rapeseed fell 8.2 per cent to 60,211
tonnes.For April-September, overall oilmeal exports stood at 723,661 tonnes, compared with
1,024,370 tonnes during the corresponding period last year, down 29 per cent.For the
April-September period, soybean meal exports stood at 42,743 tonnes, compared with 111,027
tonnes in the year-ago period.

✍ CHANA
The government's decision to permit states to impose stock limits on commodities stored in
warehouses registered with the Warehouse Development and Regulatory Authority (WDRA)
has started impacting futures prices, especially that of chana.A fortnight ago, chana was quoted
at a discount of Rs 190-200 a quintal in New Delhi delivery on the National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX).
While the fundamentals for chana have favoured bulls and prices have been going up in the
spot market, resulting in higher futures prices, traders have started taking their stock out from
WDRA-registered warehouses, which was otherwise was acting as a threat for futures as that
can be offloaded on exchanges if prices rise sharply. That threat of delivery is now evasive,
which has resulted in futures prices rising faster than spot.A few days ago, the Union Cabinet
had decided to extend stock limits on essential commodities such as oilseeds and pulses for a
year and permitted states to impose stock limits on WDRA-registered warehouses. Stocks
stored in such warehouses can only be delivered on futures exchanges.

✍ TURMERIC
Turmeric prices were up by Rs 114 to Rs 8,130 per quintal in futures market on wednesday on
emergence of buying by traders, driven by rising demand in the spot market.At the National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, turmeric for delivery in November rose Rs 114, or 1.42
per cent, to Rs 8,130 per quintal with an open interest of 10,090 lots.The October contract
gained Rs 104, or 1.35 per cent, to Rs 7,800 per quintal in 16,155 lots.Pick up in demand at the
spot market, mainly helped the turmeric prices to rise.


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