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Commodity Research Report 30 November 2015 Ways2Capital .pdf


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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

DATE
31 DEC 2015

102

101

100

99

98

97

96

95

94

COPPER

29 FEB 2015

318

316

314

312

310

308

306

304

302

18 DEC 2015 2890 2870

2850

2830

2810

2790

2770

2750

2730

GOLD

05 FEB 2015 2535 25300
0

25250

25200

25150

25100

25050

25000

24950

LEAD

31 DEC 2015 112. 111.40
50

110.40

109.40

108.40

107.40

106.40

105.30

104

CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS 28 DEC 2015

153

152

151

150

148

147

146

145

144

615

610

605

600

595

590

585

580

575

NICKEL

31 DEC 2015

SILVER

04 MAR 2015 3470 34600
0

34500

34400

34300

34200

34100

34000

33900

31 DEC 2015 108. 107.50
50

106.50

105.50

104.50

103.50

102.50

101.50

100

ZINC

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31 DEC 2015

106

104

102

100

98

96

94

92

90

COPPER

29 FEB 2015

323

320

317

314

311

308

305

302

299

18 DEC 2015 2940

2910

2880

2850

2820

2790

2760

2730

2700

GOLD

05 FEB 2015 25750 25550

25400

25250

25100

25080

24950

24800

24600

LEAD

31 DEC 2015

116

114

112

110

108

106

104

102

100

NATURAL GAS 28 DEC 2015

158

156

154

152

149

147

145

143

141

628

625

612

602

594

584

570

553

540

34700

34500

34300

34100

33900

33700

33500

108

106

104

102

100

98

96

CRUDE OIL

NICKEL

31 DEC 2015

SILVER

04 MAR 2015 35100 34900

ZINC

31 DEC 2015

112

110

WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25100 TGT 24950 SL 25253
SELL ZINC DEC BELOW 103.30 TGT 102.30 SL 105.20

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL GOLD DEC BELOW 25261 TGT 24963 SL 25571 (ALMOST ACHEIVED TGT , MADE LOW OF
24965)

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY
USDINR

EXPIRY

R4

R3

DATE
26 DEC 2015 67.8 67.60
0

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

67.35

67.20

67.05

66.90

66.80

66.60

66.35

GBPINR

26 DEC 2015 101. 101.35
50

101.20

101.05

99.90

99.75

99.60

99.40

99.20

EURINR

26 DEC 2015 71.9 71.70
0

71.50

71.30

71.10

70.90

70.70

70.50

70.20

JPYINR

26 DEC 2015 55.1
0

54.90

54.80

54.70

54.55

54.45

54.30

54.15

55

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

DATE
26 DEC 2015 68.4
0

68

67.50

67.25

67

66.85

66.60

66.30

65.90

GBPINR

26 DEC 2015

101.40

101.10

101

99.95

99.60

99.25

98.90

EURINR

26 DEC 2015 72.3
5

71.70

71.40

71.10

70.85

70.55

70.10

69.75

JPYINR

26 DEC 2015 55.5 55.30
0

55.10

54.90

54.70

54.50

54.30

54.10

53.90

102 101.70
72

WEEKLY FOREX CALL
SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 100.76 TGT 100.10 SL 101.35

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 100.45 TGT 99.85 SL 101.10 (MADE LOW OF 100)

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE
SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015

644

635

626

621

617

612

608

599

590

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015

4109

4030

3951

3902

3872

3823

3793

3714

3635

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015

4966

4876

4786

4735

4696

4645

4606

4516

4426

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015

16803 16563

16323

16206

16083 15966 15843 15603

15363

CHANA

18 DEC 2015

5260

5175

5090

5046

5005

4961

4920

4836

4750

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015

4037

3978

3919

3891

3860

3832

3801

3742

3683

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY
DATE

SYOREFIDR

18 DEC 2015

684

660

636

626

621

602

588

564

540

SYBEANIDR

18 DEC 2015

4361

4193

4025

3939

3857

3771

3689

3521

3353

RMSEED

18 DEC 2015

5378

5149

4920

4802

4691

4573

4462

4233

4004

JEERAUNJHA

18 DEC 2015

17856 17241

16626

16358

16011 15743 15396 14781

14166

CHANA

18 DEC 2015

5518

5336

5154

5078

4972

4896

4790

4608

4426

CASTORSEED

18 DEC 2015

5301

4844

4387

4125

3930

3668

3473

3016

2559

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 16550 TGT 16900 SL 16200
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY JEERA DEC ABOVE 15900 TGT 16200 SL 15450 (TGT ACHEIVED)

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍ PRECIOUS METAL
✍ Gold
Gold futures were down by Rs 37 to Rs 25,244 per 10 gram today as participants trimmed their
positions. In futures trading, gold for delivery in December traded Rs 37, or 0.15% lower at Rs
25,244 per 10 gram in a business turnover of 350 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange.On
similar lines, the metal for delivery in far-month February next year shed Rs 33, or 0.13%, to
Rs 25,390 per 10 gram in 32 lots. Market analysts said the fall in gold futures was mostly in
tune with a weak trend overseas as expectations for an increase in US borrowing costs by the
end of the year buoyed the dollar, curbing the metal's appeal. Meanwhile, gold prices in global
market retreated as much as 0.4% to $1,068.36 an ounce in Singapore today.
Gold traded near its lowest in nearly six years on Thursday as the dollar held at multi-month
highs after US economic data reinforced expectations of an interest rate rise this year. The US
currency was also supported against the euro, weighing on dollar-denominated gold, as
European Central Bank officials said they were considering options such as whether to stagger
charges on banks hoarding cash or to buy more debt. The ECB meets next week. Spot gold was
unchanged on the day at $1,070.76 an ounce by 1505 GMT, not far off the $1,064.95 hit last
week, its lowest since February 2010. Liquidity was thin, with US markets are shut for the
Thanksgiving holiday. "The sense in the market is that the dollar will continue to rally due to
the prospect for QE (quantitative easing) in Europe and the hike in the US," Saxo Bank's head
of commodity strategy Ole Hansen said. "The focus is back to the negative correlation to a
stronger dollar and that's keeping gold under pressure." The dollar was up 0.1% against a
basket of major currencies, trading close to an eight-month high reached in the previous
session. "The dollar index is within reach of the multi-year high of 100.39. A break of this level
would put downside pressure on gold," ScotiaMocatta said in a note. Data on Wednesday
showed US manufacturing output in October rose well above economists' expectations while
business spending plans surged. Gold had seen some safe-haven bids earlier this week after
Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet, stoking tensions between the countries, but interest has
faded as investors' focus returned to a US rate rise. "People are preparing for the rate hike ... if
you look at strategists' recommendations of the top 20 trades, gold is not in there," MKS SA
senior vice president Bernard Sin said.

✍ Silver
Taking weak cues from overseas markets, silver prices dropped by Rs 202 to Rs 34,511 per kg
in futures trade today as participants cut down their bets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
silver for delivery in far-month March 2016 was trading lower by Rs 202, or 0.58%, to Rs
34,511 per kg in a business turnover of 202 lots. Similarly, the white metal for delivery in
December declined by Rs 141, or 0.41%, to Rs 33,940 per kg in a business volume of 624 lots.
In the international market, silver fell 1.09% to $14.12 an ounce in Singapore today. Traders
said the fall in silver prices at futures trade was largely in step with a weak trend in precious
metals in global markets as expectations for a hike in US borrowing costs by the end of the year
boosted the dollar, curbing the metal's appeal.

✍ Crude oil
Crude oil futures prices rose 0.98% to Rs 2,888 per barrel today as speculators built bets amid a
firm trend in Asia. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil for delivery in December was
trading Rs 28, or 0.98%, higher at Rs 2,888 per barrel, with a business turnover of 14,010 lots.
The oil for January next year delivery contracts moved up by Rs 26, or 0.88%, to Rs 2,994 per
barrel, with a business volume of 302 lots. Marketmen said the rise in crude oil futures was
largely in tandem with a firming trend in Asia where it held above$43 a barrel after US
commercial crude supplies rose at a slower pace while concerns over the shooting down by
Turkey of a Russian warplane lingered. Data from the US Department of Energy released
yesterday showed that the country's commercial crude supplies rose by 1.0 million barrels for
the week ended November 20. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in
January was up eight cents at$43.12 while Brent crude for January gained seven cents to$46.24
on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

✍ Nickel
Nickel futures traded lower by 0.49% to Rs 611.40 per kg largely in tune with weak overseas
trend amid subdued demand from alloy-makers at domestic spot markets. In futures trading at
the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in December weakened by Rs 3, or 0.49%,
to Rs 611.40 per kg in a business turnover of 165 lots.Similarly, the metal for delivery in
November was down by Rs 2.80, or 0.46%, at Rs 605.20 per kg in 664 lots. Globally, nickel
dropped as much as 1.8% at the London Metal Exchange (LME). Analysts said apart from

weak demand from alloy makers at domestic spot markets, a weak trend in the base metals
pack in global markets weighed on nickel prices at futures trade here.

✍ Copper
Copper futures soared 2 per cent in the domestic market on Thursday as investors and
speculators booked fresh positions in the industrial metal amidst reports that China may
consider conducting an investigation into short-selling on local exchanges, following a request
from an industry group. Further, copper producers in China are planning to meet on Friday to
discuss possible production cuts and support prices, also lifting the industrial metal. China is
the world’s biggest consumer of copper, making up nearly half of global copper consumption.
Further, upbeat US demand outlook lifted the demand prospects for the metal as orders for
business equipment in the US climbed the most in three months, up 1.3 per cent in October
from September, signaling a pickup in capital spending in the world’s biggest economy.
Copper may retreat today’s as Thursday’s surge in prices leads to profit booking amidst rising
fears that a worsening China economic slowdown may curb metal demand. At the MCX,
Copper futures for November 2015 contract closed at Rs 306.4 per kg, up by 2.08 per cent after
opening at Rs 300.45, against the previous closing price of Rs 300.15. It touched the intra-day
high of Rs 311.05.

✍ Zinc
Zinc prices moved down 1.07% to Rs 106.55 per kg in futures market today as speculators
trimmed their positions, in tandem with a weak global trend. In futures trading at Multi
Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in December dropped Rs 1.15, or 1.07%, to Rs 106.55
per kg in a business turnover of 58 lots.Likewise, the metal for delivery in November was
trading Rs 1.10, or 1.03% lower at Rs 105.30 per kg in a business turnover of 22 lots.
Marketmen said weakness in most base metals at the London Metal Exchange (LME) after
Chinese manufacturing weakened in July, mainly weighed on zinc prices in futures trade

✍ Lead
Lead prices fell 0.64% to Rs 108.45 per kg in futures trading today due to sluggish demand
from battery-makers in the spot market amid a weak global trend. At the Multi Commodity

Exchange, lead for delivery in November eased by 70 paise, or 0.64%, to Rs 108.45 per kg in a
business turnover of 124 lots. Metal for delivery in December shed 65 paise, or 0.59%, to Rs
109.25 per kg in three lots. Market analysts said besides sluggish demand from battery-makers
in the spot market amid a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal Exchange as
investors weigh the impact of possible cuts by Chinese producers, mainly kept pressure on lead
prices at futures trade.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ Mustard seed
Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.26 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on
account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard
Seed futures for December 2015 contract closed at Rs. 4,633 per quintal, down by 0.26 per
cent, after opening at Rs. 4,600 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,645. It touched the
intra-day low of Rs. 4,580. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a
result of the weak demand for the commodity
The turmeric spot prices at the Erode market traded at Rs.9800 per quintal for Finger variety
and Rs. 9300 per quintal for Gattah variety unchanged from the previous close. The daily
arrivals reported at Sangli market were hovered in the range of 2000-3000 bags. Fresh demand
reported at the spot front supported the uptrend in turmeric prices. Taking cues from the spot
activities, the turmeric futures traded on a positive note on Thursday. The stock position of
turmeric at NCDEX-accredited warehouses as of 25 November 2015 was reported at 5093
metric tonnes
According to the derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest have increased an
indication that the market is attracting large numbers of traders willing to open positions from
the long side and hold them.
✍ Castorseed
Castorseed prices fell by 0.78 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of fresh supply of the commodity in the major mandies
as well as strong production estimates. At the NCDEX, castor seed futures for December 2015
contract was trading at Rs. 4,029 per quintal tonnes, down by 0.78 per cent, after opening at Rs.
3,965 against the previous closing price of Rs. 3,998. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 3,965
till the trading Aa 12.40 PM.

✍ Chana
Chana prices were down 1.31% to Rs 4,970 per quintal in futures trade on Monday as
participants reduced exposure, triggered by higher supplies in the spot markets.At National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December eased by Rs 66, or
1.31%, to Rs 4,970 per quintal with an open interest of 51,040 lots.
On similar lines, the commodity for delivery in January 2016 traded lower by Rs 61, or 1.27%,
to Rs 4,710 per quintal in 28,820 lots.Fall in chana prices to higher supplies from producing
belts against weak trend at spot markets on fall in demand at prevailing levels.
✍ Jeera
Jeera prices closed lower by 1.05 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the
producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures
for December 2015 contract closed at Rs. 15,900 per quintal, down by 1.05 per cent, after
opening at Rs. 15,830 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,160. It touched the intra-day
low of Rs. 15,830. Commodity markets (Agri) were shut on November 25, 2015 on account of
Guru Nanak Jayanti, which commemorates the birth of the founder of the Sikh faith.
During Thursday’s trading session, jeera futures traded on a positive trend on cues from spot
markets. Hence, jeera Dec contract settled the day at Rs.16150 up by 1.2% Jeera spot prices at
the Unjha market hovering in the range of Rs.15150 – Rs.16000 per quintal. The total daily
arrivals reported at Unjha market hovering in the range of 4000- 6000 bags. However, prices at
the spot front remained steady due to limited export demand. Stock position of commodities at
NCDEX approved warehouse as on 25 November 2015 is 5774 MT.


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