Dagupan 2016 Preference BSC12 2015 .pdf
Original filename: Dagupan-2016-Preference_BSC12-2015.pdf
Author: Angelo S German
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A Sta&s&cal Inference on Candidate Choice in Dagupan City
BlueStorm Consul.ng, 2015. For Private Use Only
RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND PARAMETERS
The study was privately commissioned and conducted, with no
par&ality towards any candidate/ party/ interest. The data-‐
gathering team was unaware who enlisted them.
No member of the data-‐gathering team have any &es (whether
familial or associa&ve) with the City of Dagupan and/or the
Province of Pangasinan.
Results and tabula&on were validated through verbal read-‐back,
with triple cross-‐checking.
Based on the latest data from the Philippine Sta&s&cs Authority-‐
NSCB, the number of registered voters in Dagupan City stands at
approximately 92,867 (rounded up to 93,000 for concision).
Given this ﬁgure, 200 respondents (.4% of the sample space)
provides a margin of error of +/-‐ 5%, and a conﬁdence level of
Weighted clustering was computed for eight (8) barangays, based
on their number of registered voters averaged against the total.
The Barangay Hall of each sample Barangay represented point
zero. Using the RANDOM func&on of a standard scien&ﬁc
calculator, the last digit generated equaled the number of houses
from point zero (in either direc&on, depending en&rely on the
Only one voter per household was requested to ﬁll-‐out the
survey form, ideally the head of the family. In the absence of
voters, the house within closest proximity was subs&tuted.
This protocol was observed for each barangay, un&l the target
number of respondents was achieved. Data gathering was
conducted from December 5, 2016 to December 7, 2016.
In order to most accurately gauge voter sen&ment and simulate
elec&on-‐day condi&ons, a MOCK BALLOT was provided, with
corresponding verbal instruc&ons (“halimbawa po, araw na ng
eleksyon ngayon at ito ang inyong balota. Sino-‐sino po ang
pipiliin ninyo? / kunwari po tunay at oﬃcial itong balota na ito.”)
IMPORTANT NOTE: An “undecided” op&on was given to the
respondents for MAYOR and VICE MAYOR, in order to gather
beger voter insight and provide a more precise “sta&s&cal
snapshot” of the current sen&ment during the &me of the survey.
THE MOCK BPALLOT
– VICE MAYOR
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