Dagupan 2016 Preference BSC12 2015 (PDF)

A  Sta&s&cal  Inference  on  Candidate  Choice  in  Dagupan  City  
.  

BlueStorm  Consul.ng,  2015.  For  Private  Use  Only

RESEARCH  BACKGROUND  AND  PARAMETERS  
The   study   was   privately   commissioned   and   conducted,   with   no  
par&ality   towards   any   candidate/   party/   interest.   The   data-­‐
gathering  team  was  unaware  who  enlisted  them.  

No   member   of   the   data-­‐gathering   team   have   any   &es   (whether  
familial   or   associa&ve)   with   the   City   of   Dagupan   and/or   the  
Province  of  Pangasinan.    

Results  and  tabula&on  were  validated  through  verbal  read-­‐back,  
with  triple  cross-­‐checking.    

RESPONDENT  
RESPONDENT  
POPULATION  
POPULATION  
Based  on  the  latest  data  from  the  Philippine  Sta&s&cs  Authority-­‐
NSCB,  the  number  of  registered  voters  in  Dagupan  City  stands  at  
approximately  92,867  (rounded  up  to  93,000  for  concision).  

Given   this   figure,   200   respondents   (.4%   of   the   sample   space)  
provides   a   margin   of   error   of   +/-­‐   5%,   and   a   confidence   level   of  
95%  

Weighted  clustering  was  computed  for  eight  (8)  barangays,  based  
on  their  number  of  registered  voters  averaged  against  the  total.    

RESPONDENT  
SAMPLING  VPALUATION  
OPULATION  

RESPONDENT  
DATA  GATHERING  
POPULATION  
METHODOLOGY  
The   Barangay   Hall   of   each   sample   Barangay   represented   point  
zero.   Using   the   RANDOM   func&on   of   a   standard   scien&fic  
calculator,  the  last  digit  generated  equaled  the  number  of  houses  
from   point   zero   (in   either   direc&on,   depending   en&rely   on   the  
team).  
Only   one   voter   per   household   was   requested   to   fill-­‐out   the  
survey   form,   ideally   the   head   of   the   family.   In   the   absence   of  
voters,  the  house  within  closest  proximity  was  subs&tuted.    
This   protocol   was   observed   for   each   barangay,   un&l   the   target  
number   of   respondents   was   achieved.   Data   gathering   was  
conducted  from  December  5,  2016  to  December  7,  2016.      

RESPONDENT  
INQUIRY  APPROACH  
POPULATION  
In  order  to  most  accurately  gauge  voter  sen&ment  and  simulate  
elec&on-­‐day   condi&ons,   a   MOCK   BALLOT   was   provided,   with  
corresponding   verbal   instruc&ons   (“halimbawa   po,   araw   na   ng  
eleksyon   ngayon   at   ito   ang   inyong   balota.   Sino-­‐sino   po   ang  
pipiliin  ninyo?  /  kunwari  po  tunay  at  official  itong  balota  na  ito.”)    
 
IMPORTANT   NOTE:   An   “undecided”   op&on   was   given   to   the  
respondents   for   MAYOR   and   VICE   MAYOR,   in   order   to   gather  
beger   voter   insight   and   provide   a   more   precise   “sta&s&cal  
snapshot”  of  the  current  sen&ment  during  the  &me  of  the  survey.  

RESPONDENT  
THE  MOCK  BPALLOT  
OPULATION  

RESPONDENT  
SURVEY  RESULTS  
POPULATION  
-­‐  MAYOR  

RESPONDENT  
SURVEY  RESULTS  
POPULATION  
–  VICE  MAYOR