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Commodity Research Report 15 February 2016 Ways2Capital .pdf



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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

DATE

ALUMINIUM 29 FEB 2016 105.30 104.35 103.40
COPPER

29 FEB 2016 320.70

103

PP

S1

S2

S3

102.45 102.05 101.50 100.55

99.60
292.20

1634

1473

30905 30440 29975 29680 29510 29215 29045 28580

28115

LEAD

29 FEB 2016 129.90 128.60 127.35 126.80 126.10 125.55 124.85 123.60

122.40

NATURAL
GAS

24 FEB 2016 152.60 146.90 141.20 137.50 135.50 131.80 129.80 124.10

118.40

NICKEL

29 FEB 2016 566.30 554.80 543.30 538.70 531.80 527.20 520.30 508.80

497.30

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 39408 38938 38468 38226 37998 37756 37528 37058

36588

ZINC

29 FEB 2016 122.60 120.55 118.50 117.20 116.45 115.15 114.40 112.35

110.30

GOLD

05 APR
2016

2439

2278

311.20 308.90 306.50 304.10 301.70

S4

297

CRUDE OIL 19 FEB2016

316

R1

2117

2061

1956

1900

1795

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM 29 FEB 2016 111.15 108.20 105.20 103.95 102.30
COPPER
CRUDE OIL
GOLD
LEAD

S1

S3

S4

99.35 96.40

93.45

29 FEB 2016 357.50 341.10 327.70 315.60 308.30 299.20 291.90 275.50

259.10

19 FEB2016
05 APR
2016

2985

2651

2317

2161

1983

101

S2

1827

1649

1315

981

39570 34053 31536 30461 29019 27944 26502 23985

21468

29 FEB 2016 144.95 138.05 131.15 128.65 124.25 121.80 117.35 110.45

103.55

24 FEB 2016 181.60 167.20 152.80 143.30 138.40 128.90

NATURAL
GAS
NICKEL

109.60

95.20

29 FEB 2016 687.70 638.90 590.10 562.10 541.30 513.30 492.50 443.70

394.90

SILVER

04 MAR 2016 45976 43183 40390 39187 37597 36394 34804 32011

29218

ZINC

29 FEB 2016 140.70 132.40 124.15 120.05 115.95 111.80 107.70 99.45

91.20

124

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL ZINC FEB BELOW 115 TGT 113 SL 117.05
BUY CRUDEOIL FEB ABOVE 2020 TGT 2100 SL 1944

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL FEB ABOVE 2200 TGT 2300 SL 2098- NOT EXECUTED
BUY GOLD APR ABOVE 27734 TGT 27936 SL 27527- TGT ACHIVED

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

DATE

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

25 FEB 2016 69.4 69.10
5

68.80

68.60

68.45

68.25

68.10

67.80

67.45

GBPINR

25 FEB 2016 79.2 78.60
5

77.90

77.55

77.25

76.85

76.55

75.90

75.25

EURINR

25 FEB 2016

100

99.70

99.20

98.90

98.45

97.70

96.95

JPYINR

25 FEB 2016 63.2 62.45
5

61.65

61.15

60.80

60.35

60

59.20

58.35

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

10 100.75
1.50

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

DATE

USDINR

25 FEB 2016 70.3 69.65
0

69

68.70

68.35

68.05

67.70

67.05

66.40

GBPINR

25 FEB 2016 83.7 81.50
5

79.20

78.15

76.90

75.90

74.60

72.35

70.05

EURINR

25 FEB 2016 103. 101.80 100.40 99.90
20

99

98.50

97.60

96.20

94.85

JPYINR

25 FEB 2016 70.8 67.25
5

60

58.50

56.35

52.70

49.10

63.60

62.15

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

SELL USDINR FEB BELOW 68 TGT 67.40 SL 68.65
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

L

BUY GBPINR FEB ABOVE 98.92 TGT 99.50 SL 98.34 - TGT ACHIVED

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE
SYOREFIDR

18 MAR
2016

637.8 632 626.20 623.30 620.4 617.4 614.6 608.8
0
0
0
0
0

SYBEANIDR

18 MAR
2016

4020 3935 3850

3795 3765 3710 3680 3595

3510

RMSEED

20 APR
2016

4224 4141 4058

4023 3975 3940 3892 3809

3726

JEERAUNJHA

18 MAR
2016

CHANA

20
APR2016

16335 15765 15195 14845 1462 1427 14055 13485
5
5
4588 4497 4408

4353 4319 4264 4230 4141

603

12915
4052

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE
SYOREFIDR

18 MAR
2016

663.4 648 632.60 626.40 617.2 611 601.8 586.4
0
0
0
0

SYBEANIDR

18 MAR
2016

4246 4076 3906

3823 3736 3653 3566 3396

3226

RMSEED

20
APR2016

4442 4277 4112

4050 3947 3885 3782 3617

3452

JEERAUNJHA

18 MAR
2016

CHANA

20
APR2016

18950 17400 15850 15170 1430 1362 12750 11200
0
0
5032 4777 4522

4410 4267 4155 4012 3757

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
SELL TMC APR BELOW 8600 TGT 8400 SL 8800
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY RM SEED APR ABOVE 3920 TGT 3970 SL 3784- TGT ACHIVED
BUY JEERA MAR ABOVE 13900 TGT 14200 SL 13570 - TGT ACHIVED

571

9650
3502

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS


Gold

Friday saw another rise in the price of gold, a 16 per cent rise since the year began. However,
with rising prices, the market has also slipped into a historically high discount for physical
delivery. In the past two days, a discount of $30 an ounce or higher (Rs 680-700 per 10g) was
quoted. In Ahmadabad on Friday, it was $32.5 an oz, by NCDEX poll data. Discounts are
calculated on the cost of imports, including import duty. When supply is higher than demand at
a time when bullion traders are not willing to hold stock for a longer while, they sell at a
discount. Traders said in December, when prices were at a bottom, huge imports took place,
higher than demand, and dealers had inventory of around 50 tonnes. That is now being
offloaded with the rise in prices. Sudheesh Nambiath,lead analyst with GFMS Thomson
Reuters, said: “Such a discount goes well with our demand estimates that there was heavy
stocking in the December-ending quarter. With the price in rupee terms rallying significantly
since January, it is only normal to see the metal up for sale." On Friday at Zaveri Bazaar here,
standard gold of 0.995 purity in the spot market closed nearly one per cent or Rs 275 per 10g
higher, to close at Rs 29,110. On Thursday, on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), futures
gold was quoted above Rs 30,000 per 10g. Since November, 300-325 tonnes of import is
estimated to have happened. Nambiath said, “In some cases, it’s even better for jewelers to melt
down their jewellery and sell as bars than wait for customers to come to their stores."
Gold's prospects for a sustained price rally are better than they have been for years as a weaker
dollar, crashing oil prices and concerns about the global economy have revived its safe-haven
status after years as the dog of global financial markets. The last time gold prices rose more
than 10 percent in a 10-day stretch, the bullion market was in the last gasp of a decade-long
rally that soon peaked at more than $1,920 per ounce in 2011.
Stocks advanced in Europe and Asia on Thursday, with the focus on energy companies as
speculation U.S. interest rates may not rise at all this year left the dollar nursing hefty losses
and oil held most of the previous day's big gains. The dollar fell sharply on Wednesday after
weak U.S. data and comments from a Fed policymaker interpreted as signaling further rate
hikes could be delayed.The U.S. currency fell 0.2 percent against a basket of its peers on
Thursday, and held close to Wednesday's 14-week low against the euro and its weakest for a
week against
Gold on Friday clung to sharp overnight gains that pushed the metal to a one-year high, and
looked set to post its best week in over four years as stock market turmoil stoked safe haven
demand. Stock markets fell worldwide on Thursday on fears over the health of the global
economy and the banking sector, with MSCI's global stock index closing more than 20% below
its all-time high. Safe-haven assets shone across the board. US 10-year Treasury yields hit their

lowest since 2012, while the Japanese yen climbed to its highest in 15 months against the
dollar. Spot gold rose to $1,260.60 on Thursday, its highest in a year, before paring some gains
to close up 4% in its biggest daily gain in about 2-1/2 years. On Friday, it eased 0.8% to
$1,236.60 by 0042 GMT. “The risk-off sentiment that pervaded markets overnight saw gold
briefly push above $1,260 amid rising safe haven buying, making it the best performing
commodity in 2016," ANZ analysts said in a note. For the week, spot gold is up 5.5%, the
biggest weekly gain since October 2011. Tracking spot prices, US gold futures are set to post a
gain of 7% for the week, the biggest such gain since 2008.

✍ Crude Oil
Crude oil prices rose sharply by Rs 84 to Rs 2,107 per barrel in futures trade today as
speculators widened their bets after it rallied in Asia. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude
oil for delivery in March contracts was trading higher by Rs 84 or 4.15% at Rs 2,107 per barrel,
with a business turnover of 1,501 lots. The oil for february delivery also moved up Rs 57 or
3.09% to Rs 1,901 per barrel, with a business volume of 8,441 lots. Market men attributed the
rise in crude oil futures to a firming trend in Asian trade where it surged more than five%
today, a day after tanking towards 13-year lows and following a report suggesting the OPEC
producers' club was open to working towards cutting output to stabilize volatile crude markets.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices for March delivery climbed $1.47, or
5.61% to $27.68 a barrel, while Brent for April also advanced $1.68 or 5.59% to $31.74 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. WTI settled at $26.21 a barrel yesterday, its
lowest close since May 2003, and breaching bottoms set in January. The contract is down
around 11% for the week.
Some OPEC countries are trying to achieve a consensus among the group and key nonmembers for an oil production "freeze", sources familiar with the discussions say, in an attempt
to tackle the global glut without cutting supply. Top exporter Saudi Arabia might be warming
to the idea, though it was too early to say whether the kingdom would give its blessing because
any deal depends mainly on a commitment by Iran to restrict its plan to boost exports, the
sources said.MCX Crude Oil Feb is trading at `1888. It is trading up by `44.



Copper

Copper prices fell further by 0.46% to Rs 302.75 per kg in futures trading today as participants
engaged in reducing their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot market on low demand even
as the metal strengthened overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in
February declined by Rs 1.40, or 0.46%, to Rs 302.75 per kg, in a business turnover of 2,099
lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in far-month April traded lower by Rs 1.10, or 0.36%, to
Rs 307.10 per kg in 68 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of
subdued demand at domestic spot market, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.
However, firm global trend where most industrial metals rose as the dollar retreated to a threemonth low amid prospects for a delay in the tightening of US monetary policy, restricted the
fall, they said. Meanwhile, copper for delivery in three month climbed 0.7% to $4,474 a metric
tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Surging imports of copper into major consumer China should not be seen as a sign of stronger
real demand, because higher shipments are pointing more to restocking of the metal. Imports of
refined copper surged 34.4 percent in December from a year ago to a record 423,181 tonnes
and expectations are that the January numbers will be high too. Stocks of copper in LMEapproved warehouses at 227,300 tonnes are up about 40 percent since last August, while those
in SHFE monitored depots have nearly doubled to 241,282



Lead

Amid positive global cues and pick up in demand at domestic spot market, lead prices traded
higher by 0.24% to Rs 123.15 per kg in futures trade. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead
for delivery in February inched up by 30 paise or 0.24% to Rs 123.15 per kg in a business
turnover of 1,297 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in March contracts edged up by 15
paise or 0.12% to Rs 123.50 per kg in 78 lots. Analysts said besides increased demand from
battery makers in the spot market, a firm trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal
Exchange, influenced lead prices at the futures trade.



Aluminium

Aluminium prices were up by 0.39% to Rs 103.20 per kg in futures trade as traders enlarged
positions, driven by pick up in demand at the spot market amid firm global trend. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in March month moved up by 40 paise, or
0.39% to Rs 103.20 per kg in business turnover of 10 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in
February contracts edged up by 30 paise or 0.29% to Rs 102.40 per kg in 92 lots. Analysts said
increasing of positions by participants due to pick up in demand from consuming industries at
domestic spot markets and a firm global trend mainly led to rise in aluminium prices at futures
trade. Meanwhile, aluminum gained 0.3% at the London Metal Exchange.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
The National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) plans to assist castor seed traders
in liquidating their stocks through its spot market arm, NCDEX e Markets Ltd
(NeML).NCDEX suspended futures trading in castor seed on January 27, saying this was to
maintain market equilibrium, safeguard market integrity and in the general interest.
According to trade sources, around 165,000 tonnes worth Rs 495 core of the oil seed was in
various NCDEX-registered warehouses at that data. Owing to falling prices, traders haven’t
lifted these.The quantity deposited in NCDEX registered warehouses needs to be liquidated.
We would assist traders in liquidating their stocks through our spot arm NeML. For all running
contracts of castor seed on January 27, total quantity in open interest was recorded at 434,000
tonnes and 283,260 tonnes for all running contracts and near month (February) contract
respectively.Through NeML, traders can liquidate their entire holding in a phased manner,
instead of carrying the entire quantity at one go to the physical markets for selling. Selling

through a spot exchange might yield better realization than transporting entire quantity to
physical markets on one occasion.
With around 700,000 - 800,000 tonnes of castor seed left unsold elsewhere in the market,
finding buyers at this point in time looks difficult. Assuming the crop sise of 1.2-1.3 million
tonnes for the next year, castor seed price might worsen going forward.
The Agriwatch Agri Commodities Index fell 0.88% to 100.22 during the week ended Feb 6,
2016, from 101.11 during the previous week. The base for the Index is 2014 (= 100). The
Pulses Index was the main contributor, falling 5.13% during the week to 150.83.The
Vegetables Index, down 3.64% during the week, the Oilseeds Index (-2.03%) and the Edible
Oils Index (-0.91%) were the other main contributors. Other commodity group indices which
declined during the week were the Cereals Index (-0.02%), Fibres Index (-1.89%) and Other
Non-Food Articles Index (-2.76%). Indices which gained during the week were the sugar, gur,
khandsari (sweeteners) index (+0.69%) and the Condiments & Spices Index (+3.54%).



Chana

Chana prices closed lower by 0.72 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with
high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract
closed at Rs. 4,298 per quintal, down by 0.72 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,374 against the
previous closing price of Rs. 4,329. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,285.
During Thursday’s trading session NCDEX Chana April opened positive but during first of the
session it traded negative after that it resumed uptrend and closed positive only. NCDEX Chana
April futures ended the day at Rs. 4329 per quintal which is 1.54% up against the previous day.
According to the latest forecast, Indian weather reports are mixed where as pulse crops in some
regions receiving much needed moisture and dryness persisting in other. Pulses prices are rising
since last year due to production fall in the wake of unfavorable weather condition. Several
steps have taken by government for curbing the pulses price but prices are expected to remain
firm this year due to production concerns because of drought for the second straight year.
According to Australia Agriculture Department, this year chana production might increase up
to 10.13 lakh tonnes, where as it was 5.55 lakh tonnes during 2014-15 and 6.29 lakh tonnes in
2013-14. During 2014 – 15 pulses production was around 172 lakh ton which was 20 lakh ton
less against the previous year where as it is expected that during 2015 – 16 production might be
around 55 lakh ton. On Wednesday during India-Africa agri business forum Kenya importer
told that this year pulses import in India from Kenya may increase by 10- 20 percent against the
previous year. As per preliminary reports received from various State Government Agriculture
Departments, the total area sown under summer crop



Mustard seed

Mustard seed prices closed higher by 1.68 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity &
Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the decline in the supply for the
commodity in the major markets. At the NCDEX, mustard seed futures for April 2016 contract

closed at Rs. 3,988 per quintal, up by 1.68 per cent, after opening at Rs. 3,940 against the
previous closing price of Rs. 3,922. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 4,010.



Jeera

Jeera prices closed lower by 1.36 per cent on Friday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in
the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for March 2016
contract closed at Rs. 14,490 per quintal, down by 1.36 per cent, after opening at Rs. 14,740
against the previous closing price of Rs. 14,690. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 14,410.
Jeera futures extended its bullish trade as positive factors prevailing in the market supported the
market to trade higher. News of crop damage in Northern Gujarat due to disease and on
concerns on yield due to lower moisture levels supported the buyer’s sentiments. Jeera Mar
contract closed the day at Rs.14690 per quintal, higher by 1.8% from its previous close. Spot
markets are trading higher taking positive cues from the futures market. Jeera at spot market of
Unjha are trading higher at Rs. 13700 per quintal, up by Rs. 100 and arrivals were reported at
around 2500 bags, higher by 1000 bags. Demand is steady in the markets after fresh export
enquiries for the new crop. As on 8th Feb, sowing of jeera is complete in 295400 hectares in
Gujarat and it is 84% over normal acreage. However, it is higher than last year’s acreage during
corresponding time. Stock position of commodities at NCDEX approved warehouse as on 10th
Feb 2016 is 221 MT. Marginal stocks in the warehouses also supported buyer’s sentiments.


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