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Epic Research Daily Agri Report 17th FEB 2016 .pdf



Original filename: Epic Research Daily Agri Report 17th FEB 2016.pdf
Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014  

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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
17 February 2016

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Market Views
MONTH

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

% CHG

VOL

MONTH

OPEN

HIGH

CORIANDER

APR

6705

6820

6611

SUPPORT

SUPP.1

SUPP. 2

6650

6526

6774

6735
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

6859

6944

+1.23

6690

Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
days.

-

-

-

-

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

-

-

8560

8690

8440

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

8470

8330

8610

8580
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

8720

8830

% CHG

VOL

-

-

PIVOT

LEVELS

-

RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

-

-

GUARGUM

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

-

INTRADAY

TURMERIC

APR

CLOSE

CASTORSEED

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

LOW

+0.33

15480

Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.

MAR

5850

5930

5700

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

5670

5570

5770

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

5800
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

5900

6030

-0.52

17006

Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.

2

Most Active Contract
NCDEX INDICES

TOP LOSERS

SYMBOL

EXPIRY DATE

CURRENT
PRICE

CHANGE

CHANGE
%

JEERA

18-03-2016

14660.00

-340.00

-2.27%

RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED

20-04-2016

3977.00

-38.00

-0.95%

BARLEY

20-04-2016

1392.00

-13.00

-0.93%

SOYABEAN

19-02-2016

3733.00

-10.00

-0.27%

TOP GAINERS

SYMBOL

EXPIRY DATE

CURRENT
PRICE

CORIANDER

20-04-2016

6774.00

95.00

1.42%

CHANA

20-04-2016

4370.00

55.00

1.27%

TURMERIC

20-04-2016

8610.00

52.00

0.61%

COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA

19-02-2016

2072.00

1.00

0.05%

CHANGE CHANGE %

Index

Value

Pre.
Close

%
Change

CASTORSEED

-

-

-

CHANA

4370

4312

+1.35

CORIANDER

6774

6692

+1.23

GUARGUM

5680

5670

+0.18

JEERA

14660

15020

-2.40

MUSTARD
SEED

3977

4006

-0.72

SOYABEAN

3733

3733

0.00

TURMERIC

8610

8582

+0.33

3

Commodities In News
ECONOMIC NEWS

Ref Soya oil settled down on oversupply woes following robust
imports data. India's soyoil imports surged four fold high to 490,718
tons in December compared to 97,027 tons for the same period a year
ago, data released by the SEA of India showed. As per latest SEA data,
edible oils import rose to 14.07 lt in December last year from 11.23 lt
in December 2014. However, imports of non-edible oils fell to 11,467
tonnes from 17,996 tonnes in the year-ago period. Earlier, the
Agriculture Ministry has proposed further hike in import duty of edible
oils by 5 per cent in a bid to protect the interest of farmers, but the
decision is still pending.The Ministry has proposed increase in import
duty on crude edible oils to 17.5 per cent and on refined edible oils to
25 per cent from the existing level. Soymeal exports touched an all time
low of 7,707 tonnes in January this year, due to higher bean prices in
the domestic market. The export during April-January period of the
current fiscal declined by 87 per cent to 69,266 tonnes compared to
5.35 lakh tonnes in the same period of previous year.
Jeera settled up on rising demand from stockists and traders at the
spot market. Though, Good weather conditions for cumin crop in
Gujarat and limited export demand, capped some gains. Jeera supply
reported lower in the Unjha spot market as new arrivals started lower
quantity. Sources revealed that, Jeera sowing is delayed by 20 - 25 days
in Gujarat as a result new Jeera crop arrivals will delay compared to
normal arrivals time.From February 1st-13th 2016, Jeera supply lower
by 40600 bags (1 bag = 55 Kgs) as compared to last year same period.
Jeera sowing in Gujarat until Jan 25 stood at 295,400 hectare up nearly
11% compared to year ago, according to data from state government.
Sowing in Rajasthan is also reported to be higher due to better prices at
the sowing of sowing operations. According to Dept of Commerce
data, the export of jeera during first 8 month of 2015- 16 (Apr-Nov) is
56,787 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year.

Wheat output in India, the world's second biggest grower, is expected to
rise by 8.42 per cent to 93.82 million tonnes in the 2015-16 crop year
despite facing drought and warmer winter.In the 2014-15 crop year (JulyJune), wheat output had fallen to 86.53 million tonnes (MT) due to deficit
rain and unseasonal weather conditions. Last year's wheat output has been
revised further down by 2.41 MT in final estimates.This year's wheat
production is, however, likely to be lower than the record 95.85 MT
achieved in 2013-14 crop year.The output projections for wheat and other
crops for 2015-16 were made in the second advance estimate released by
the Agriculture Ministry."Initially, there were fears that wheat production
could take a hit due to warmer winters and decline in sowing area. But fall
in temperature towards January-end and adoption of better varieties has
improved the crop prospects," a senior Agriculture Ministry official said.If
there are no unseasonal weather conditions such as hailstorm in FebruaryMarch, wheat output could further go up, which will be factored in the crop
estimates of the ministry later, the official added.The government usually
comes out with four advance foodgrain production estimates before the
final one.The official said there are reports of yellow-rust disease outbreak
in the wheat crop in parts of Haryana, which at present is not a serious
issue.However, the agri-research body Indian Council of Agricultural
Research (ICAR) and Directorate of Wheat Research are keeping a close
watch on such developments and giving timely advisories to the state
governments.Meanwhile, the Food Ministry has kept a target to procure 30
MT of wheat directly from farmers at a minimum support price. Last year,
it had procured 28.08 MT.As per the second estimate, total foodgrain
production is pegged at 253.16 MT for the current crop year, higher by
1.14 MT, over the production of 252.02 MT during 2014-15.Total
foodgrain output is expected to exceed last year's level despite weak kharif
crops owing to deficit monsoon and rabi crops due to shortage of water in
reservoirs and relatively warmer winter, the ministry added.

4

Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
National Market Update
Total area under Castor crop in Gujarat for the year 2015-16 is 781,000
hectares as per the Government’s estimates. It has increased by 6 % as
compared to the previous year, which was 734,000 hectares according to
Government’s estimates. The area under Castor crop has increased across the
major castor producing districts, with Kachchh reporting an increase in area by
28% this year as compared to last year’s government estimates and Vadodara
reporting an increase in area by 23% this year as compared to last year’s
government’s estimates as per global castor conference-2016.However,experts
differ from this estimate and say production is even higher.

Total area under Castor crop in India for the year 2015-16 is 1,136,300
hectares. Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in India for the year
2015-16 would be 13,97,000 tonnes (Area as per Government Area
Estimates)Average yield for the year 2015-16 is 1229 kg/hectare .
Estimated total production of Castor seeds in Gujarat for the year 2015-16 is
1,150,000 tonnes, as per Government area estimates. Average yield for the
year 2015-16 is 1472 kg/hectare as against 1454 kg/hectare during the year
2014-15. There is a slight increase in yield this year (1%) as compared to last
year.

Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of
Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44
lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has
been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed
in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year
is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is
too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over.

CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
CENTER

15-Feb-15

14-Jan-15

Change

SUMERPUR

2975

2950

+25

PATAN

3045

3065

-20

MEHSANA

2975

3000

-25

BHABAR

3035

3030

+5

HARJI

3025

3050

-25

RAJKOT

3040

3005

+35

KADI

2990

2985

+5

5

Technical Outlook

BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6800 TARGET 6845 6995 SL
BELOW 6735

BUY GUARGUM MAR ABOVE 5770 TARGET 5820 5890 SL
BELOW 5710

BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 8620 TARGET 8664 8724 SL
BELOW 8560

6

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