Epic Research Daily Agri Report 11th March 2016 .pdf
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Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
11 March 2016
Epic Research India
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Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Most Active Contract
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
CHANGE CHANGE %
Commodities In News
Turmeric on NCDEX settled on short covering after prices dropped
as peak season crop arriving in the market. Further, higher arrivals from
the producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. New season crop has
hit the markets but majority of arrivals are of medium quality turmeric.
There are reports of production concern due to drought in Maharashtra
and Andhra Pradesh.There is concern over production due to heavy
rains during Nov-Dec in south India. As per dept of commerce data,
turmeric exports until Dec 2015 pegged at 64,100 tonnes while the
export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes compared to 78,360 tonnes in
FY14. As on latest sowing data, turmeric sowing in AP, Telangana is
lower than the normal sowing. New Turmeric supply reported in the
domestic market pressurizes the prices at higher levels. Falling acreage
due to poor rainfall during June-July coupled with the increased
demand for turmeric of Tamil Nadu origin has tended to push the price
of the yellow spice northwards. The total area under turmeric during
2014-15 has been estimated at 0.18 million hectares.
Chana on NCDEX settled down on profit booking after prices earlier
gained on expectation of late arrivals of new season chana as some
parts of in North and Central India experiencing unseasonal rains and
hailstorm. Further, anticipation of higher demand from dal mills and
news on crop damage in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh due to
recent unseasonal rains and hailstorm, too limited the downside.There
are reports of hailstorm damage for chana in Maharashtra during last
week and forecast the same for this week too. Government is creating
buffer stock for pulses including chana so that they can stabilize the
prices in years to come. Imported chana has also hit the markets this
month and traders & stockists are buying up to their respective stock
limits for the new season crop. India has imported 5.79 lt of Chana
until December in the current financial year. In December, country
imported over 2 lt of chana which is a record.In the second advance
estimate for 2015-16, government forecasted 8.09 mt of chana this
year, which is more than production estimated last year (7.17 mt).
Government is likely to initiate a market-linked insurance scheme for
plantation crops such as tea, coffee, tobacco and rubber to help growers
tide over the impact of price and yield fluctuations.The revenue insurance
scheme for plantation crops, an official said, will be launched once the
operational parameters are finalised by the government.It would be
implemented on a pilot basis in 7 districts and will provide insurance cover
against fluctuation in prices and yield, the official added.The scheme will
be funded from the price stabilisation fund for plantation crops.The price of
these crops are sensitive to developments in the international markets.
Besides, natural calamities too impact the productivity of these
crops.According to a Commerce and Industry Ministry report, these crops
are grown in about 16 lakh hectares and they provide direct employment to
about 17.10 lakh workers.Though the plantation crops occupy only about 1
per cent of the total cropped area, they generate about 15 per cent of the
total agricultural export earnings.The report has also stated that the growers
of plantation commodities are vulnerable to large risks in terms of
production caused by adverse climatic conditions, as also to price risks
caused by demand and supply situations and changes in domestic and
international prices."The plantation crops are traded in an extremely
competitive international market, which causes enhanced vulnerability in
times of severe price drop. Cartelisation and indirect subsidies in
international markets further increase price risks," it had said.On the other
hand, India needs to remain a credible supplier in the global market for
which price stability is an essential consideration.India is the largest
producer and consumer of black tea in the world. It is the sixth largest
producer of coffee and 4th in natural rubber production. The country is
among the largest producers and exporters of tobacco in the world.Each
one of around 1.5 lakh workers of all the small tea gardens (STG) in India
are going to get an insurance cover of Rs 2 lakh against own payment of Rs
3.5 only per annum. Under direct support of Indian Tea Board(ITB), the
accidental insurance scheme is likely to get introduced pan country from
1st April."We are excited to have such a nice scheme that we have been
asking for since long.
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
National Market Update
Castor cash markets firm up on increasing fear of lower output in some parts
of Gujarat and Rajasthan from normal expectation. Farmers in Kutchh are
complaining of lower yield than last year while farmers in Rajasthan too are
getting 10 percent lower yield than normal. There is a growing consensus that
castor production may be in range of 14 lakh tonne.
Besides, farmers are unwilling to sell seed at current price. Demand for
castor oil is good and it has lent support to the cash market fundamentals.
Stockiests are active and have started purchasing seed at higher price.Market
may trade firm in the near term.
India exported 8494.36 T castor oil during week ended 6 th March-2016 at
an average price of $1062.91 per tonne.It is lower by 54.88% from previous
week. Price realization too decreased by 6.82 % from last week. The minimum
and maximum prices were registered at $1618 and 837.80 per tonne. Castor oil
export would continue to grow as prices are lower and availability is higher.
Even before arrival pressure.
Market fundamentals and recent developments hint that the year will remain
favorable for castor oil consumers as upside potential is very limited in the
short to medium term. Speculators have burnt their fingers and would prefer to
remain sidelined in futures if futures contracts are re-launched. Under current
condition castor business may revert to fundamental good demand -supply
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6900 TARGET 6945 7095 SL
SELL GUARGUM MAR BELOW 5380 TARGET 5330 5260 SL
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 8910 TARGET 8954 9014 SL
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