Epic Research Daily Agri Report 5th April 2016 .pdf
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Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
05 April 2016
Epic Research India
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Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Most Active Contract
SUGAR M GRADE
CHANGE CHANGE %
REF SOYA OIL
Commodities In News
Sugar Futures closed higher in weekly basis but traded down on
Friday on profit bookings. Sugar May futures closed lower by 2.70% to
settle at Rs. 3,538 per quintal. However, spot prices at Vashi increased
by 1.67% on good physical demand. Sugar production as on March 31
is 4.43% lower than the sugar production during corresponding period
of previous year as per ISMA data release. All India sugar production
is 237 lt, up to March 31, 2016, which is about 11 lt less than last
year.India is expected to produce 25.64 mt of sugar lower from 26 mt
forecasted last month in 2015-16 marketing year against 28.3 mt in the
previous year on deficient rains. On the export front, Indian millers
have so far, contracted about 14 lt of sugar for exports and likely to see
over 80% jump to 20 lt in 2015-16 marketing year.We expect sugar to
trade sideways to lower due to selling pressure at higher levels.
However, expectation of good summer demand coupled with lower
output and good exports may keep price stable.
Chana futures continue its increasing trend, as demand surpasses
arrivals due to increased procurement by government. Chana futures
for April delivery closed higher by 5.02% on weekly basis to settle at
Rs 4,604 per quintal. Market participants are expecting good spot
demand in coming months, as arrivals have been steady across country.
Moreover, Govt. has also started to procure directly from farmers to
create buffer stock for pulses including chana.Imported chana has also
hit the markets this month and traders & stockists are buying up to their
respective stock limits for the new season crop. India has imported 5.79
lt of Chana until December in the current financial year. In December,
country imported over 2 lt of chana which is a record. In the second
advance estimate for 2015-16, government forecasted 8.09 mt of chana
this year, which is more than production estimated last year (7.17 mt).
According to IMD, fresh spell of rain may lash North-West this week
due to western disturbances but still no traces of rains in Rajasthan.
Private firm Weather Risk Management Services has said that India will
receive normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season,
welcome news in a country where as much as 60% of the farmland is rainfed.The forecast from the government's India Meteorological department (
IMD) is expected by the last week of April. Local authorities use IMD's
prediction to decide on their monsoon preparations."The 2016 monsoon
rains will be normal and well distributed. The models are indicating above
average rainfall from June to September," said Kanti Prasad, headmeteorology at Gurgaon headquartered Weather Risk Management
Services.Monsoon rainfall was deficit in 2015-16 and 2014-15 at 14% and
12% respectively.However, Prasad said that there may be some areas in
northeast India, Maharashtra and Rajasthan where overall rainfall activity
may be somewhat on the negative side of the normal during monsoon."In
the four-month rainy season, rains in June are expected to be the maximum,
thereby reducing over the next three months," said Prasad.The
meteorologist said that most global models indicated continued weakening
of El Nino conditions over the coming months, returning to normal by late
spring or early summer 2016 and a chance of La Nina development by fall.
"These signals are favourable for above normal monsoon rainfall over the
country during June to September, 2016," he said.Sonu Agrawal, managing
director of Weather Risk Management Services, said that the firm will
update its monsoon forecast fortnightly.Information and forecasts of
weather are largely sought by clients in aviation, energy, insurance,
banking, agriculture and trading, apart from logistics, chemicals and
commodity companies. Weather Risk Management Services has clients
from Pepsico, Bayer, Syngenta, Mother Dairy, Multi Commodity
Exchange and Reliance infra-backed BSES power distribution company,
among others.Presenting its long-range weather forecast on April 1 in
Delhi, the company said it processed data from the American scientific
agency National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to come to this
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
National Market Update
All India average prices of Castor seed decreased by 0.53 % to Rs 3000.64
per qtl week on week basis. It was being traded at Rs 3016.72 per qtl. during
the week ended 23rd March-2016.Weak buying interest by plants, stockiest at
current price and subdued import demand have restricted cash market from
getting firmer. Mostly markets remained closed in the last week of March.
Profit booking at higher level in Rajkot commodity exchange pressurized
seed in cash and RCX and weak tone likely to continue in the first week of
April. Higher arrivals are expected in April as markets remained closed last
week due to March Closing. Mostly active traders remained active to settle
their accounts. Oil demand was seen lower as importers have covered their
India exports 11614.20 T castor Oil during the week ended 20th March at an
average price of $1095.61 per T. China ,Thailand and US were the major
buyers last week. The flow of export would continue as importers are taking
advantage of lower price and they are stocking castor oil. Higher export
volume indicates that if prices firms up in coming months ,they may restrict
Agricultural Statistics Division, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, India
has revised its Second Adv estimate for foodgrains and estimated 17.27 lakh
tonne castor seed production for 2015-16 crop year,to be marketed in MY
2016-17.The production target for the year had been fixed at 20.34lakh tonne.
India had produced 18.70 lakh tonne castor seed last year as per final estimate
by DES..Against this private estimates hinges in the range of 14 to 15 lakh
tonne for this year.
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 7390 TARGET 7435 7585 SL
SELL GUARGUM APRIL BELOW 5380 TARGET 5330 5260 SL
SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8300 TARGET 8256 8196 SL
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