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Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 18 April 2016 .pdf


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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

105.65

104.80

103.95

103.65

103.10

102.75

102.25

101.40

100.55

COPPER

29 APR 2016

327.80

324.10

320.50

318.80

316.80

315.20

313.20

309.50

305.90

CRUDE OIL

19 MAY 2016

3103

3005

2907

2856

2809

2758

2711

2613

2515

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

29480

29293

29106

29032

28919

28845

28732

28545

28358

LEAD

29 APR 2016

117.90

116.65

115.40

114.70

114.15

113.45

112.90

111.65

110.40

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

147.30

141.10

134.90

131.30

128.70

125.10

122.50

116.30

110.10

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

622

612.20

602.40

598

592.60

588.20

582.80

573

563.20

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

39899

39412

38925

38716

38438

38229

37951

37464

36977

ZINC

29 APR 2016

129.85

127.90

125.95

125.10

124

123.20

122.05

120.10

118.10

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

29 APR 2016

116.65

111.95

107.15

105.25

102.40

100.50

97.65

92.90

88.15

COPPER

29 APR 2016

359.20

344.30

329.40

323.30

314.50

308.40

299.60

284.70

269.80

CRUDE OIL

19 MAY 2016

3440

3231

3022

2913

2813

2704

2604

2395

2186

GOLD

03 JUN 2016

31396

30616

29836

29397

29056

28617

28276

27496

26716

LEAD

29 APR 2016

131.35

125.70

120..10

117.05

114.40

111.40

108.75

103.10

97.45

NATURAL GAS

26 APR 2016

161.60

151.10

140.60

134.20

130.10

123.70

119.60

109.10

98.60

NICKEL

29 APR 2016

.
696.90

660

623.10

608.40

586.20

571.50

549.30

512.40

475.50

SILVER

05 MAY 2016

43752

41820

39888

39197

37956

37265

36024

34092

32160

ZINC

29 APR 2016

151.50

141.70

131.90

128.10

122.10

118.30

112.30

102.50

92.70

Monday, 18 April 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL NATURAL GAS APR BELOW 126 TGT 119 SL 135.60
SELL GOLD JUN BELOW 28714 TGT 28498 SL 28931

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY GOLD JUN ABOVE 29302 TGT 29619 SL 28988- MADE HIGH OF 29459
SELL NICKEL APR BELOW 560 TGT 530 SL 591 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

67.75

67.40

67

66.85

66.60

66.50

66.25

65.85

65.50

EURINR

27 APR 2016

76.55

76.20

75.90

75.65

75.55

75.30

75.20

74.85

74.50

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

96.50

96

95.45

95.25

94.95

94.75

94.45

93.90

93.40

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

62

61.70

61.40

61.20

61.10

60.90

60.75

60.45

60.15

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27 APR 2016

69.9
0

68.90

67.80

67.10

66.80

65.90

65.10

64.20

63.20

EURINR

27 APR 2016

78.6
0

77.65

76.70

76.05

75.75

75.10

74.80

73.80

72.85

GBPINR

27 APR 2016

99.5
5

98

96.45

95.75

94.90

94.20

93.30

91.75

90.20

JPYINR

27 APR 2016

64.0
5

63.10

62.20

61.60

61.30

60.70

60.35

59.45

58.55

WEEKLY FOREX CALL
SELL JPYINR APR BELOW 61.60 TGT 60.95 SL 62.10
SELL EURINR APR BELOW 75.25 TGT 74.30 SL 76.40

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY GBPINR APR ABOVE 94.95 TGT 95.95 SL 93.98 - MADE HIGH OF 95.56

✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 MAY 2016

676

671

666

663

661

658

656

651

646

SYBEANIDR

20 MAY 2016

4465

4375

4285

4241

4195

4151

4105

4015

3925

RMSEED

20 MAY 2016

4802

4690

4578

4536

4466

4424

4354

4242

4130

JEERAUNJHA

20 MAY 2016

17015

16655

16295

16135

15935

15775

15575

15215

14855

CHANA

20 MAY 2016

5761

5545

5329

5257

5113

5041

4897

4681

4465

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 MAY 2016

700

687

674

667

661

654

648

635

622

SYBEANIDR

20 MAY 2016

4540

4422

4304

4250

4186

4132

4068

3950

3832

RMSEED

20 MAY 2016

4915

4767

4619

4557

4471

4409

4323

4175

4027

JEERAUNJHA

20 MAY 2016

18645

17675

16870

16425

16080

15630

15285

14495

13695

CHANA

20 MAY 2016

5761

5545

5329

5257

5113

5041

4897

4681

4465

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
BUY JEERA MAY ABOVE 16550 TGT 16900 SL 16238
BUY SOYABEAN JUN ABOVE 4270 TGT 4350 SL 4194

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL
BUY JEERA MAY ABOVE 16700 TGT 17000 SL 16290 - NOT EXECUTED.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
✍Bullion
Gold edged up on Friday following three days of declines, but was heading for its first weekly drop in three as a
stronger dollar and higher equities kept investor interest in check. Bullion climbed to a three-week high on
Tuesday, only to give up gains as world stocks rose to their highest levels since late December on Thursday,
boosted by robust Chinese economic data and a surge in oil prices earlier this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at
$1,229.06 an ounce by 0941 GMT, following a drop of 1.3% in the previous session. It was heading for a 1%
loss for the week.Gold prices have steadied after posting their biggest quarterly rise in nearly 30 years in the
three months to March, driven by a reining in of expectations that the US Federal Reserve will push ahead with
several rate hikes this year."We are seeing central banks having separation anxiety with their stimulus policies
and so much stimulus tends to devalue currencies and that's the follow through from negative real rates," ETF
Securities analyst Martin Arnold said."It is a cost for people to hold cash and fixed income and it devalue fiat
currencies, so people are still turning to gold."Higher interest rates would lift the opportunity cost of holding
non-yielding assets, while boosting the dollar.Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lock hart on
Thursday said he no longer expects to advocate for a US interest rate hike in April, but added there is still time
for two or three rate hikes this year.The Fed will raise interest rates twice this year, most likely in June, but the
probability has faded on signs of a weak start to the year, inflation that is still tame and a brittle global backdrop,
a Reuters poll showed.Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to
806.82 tonnes on Thursday, the lowest in a month.Among other precious metals, silver was on track to post a 5%
weekly gain, its biggest jump in six weeks. It was up 0.3% at $16.19 an ounce, after hitting its highest level since
October earlier this week.Platinum was headed for its third straight weekly gain, but was down 0.6% at $983.50
an ounce, while palladium fell 0.3% at $559.40 but was poised for its best week in six with a 4.5% rise.European
car sales rose 5.7% in March, industry data showed on Friday, helped by discounts and other incentives.
Platinum and palladium are used in auto catalysts to clean up exhaust emissions.
SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange
traded fund, said its holdings stood at 812.46 up 5.64 tonnes, from previous business day. Holdings of the largest
silver backed exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's i shares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10366.70 down
29.59 tonnes, from previous business day.Gold imports are likely to drop 41% in April from that a year ago, a
development that augurs well for the Narendra Modi government's efforts to keep current account deficit under
control.San Francisco Fed President John Williams, said in his comments that he expects two – three rate hikes
this year and when it happens the markets are likely not to go volatile. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top goldbacked exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.33 percent to 815.14 tonnes on Tuesday. Given the high
probabilities of rate hikes from Fed the rally in gold is likely to run into resistance shortly , at the same time as
the ETF flows have also started to consolidate we might see gold prices nudging lower from current levels. For
the day we therefore recommend a sell in gold.

✍Crude Oil
As per closing basis, WTI International posted gains around 4.50%, registering at $42.17/ bbl, whereas gains in
Brent crude oil were around 4.30%, registering at $44.69/bbl . MCX crude oil showed gains around 4.35%,
registering at Rs.2782/bbl . Partially supported by expected products side inventory withdrawals and partially by
some of the positive outcome from the upcoming Doha meet, crude prices got catalyzed yesterday.Apart from

this, with continuous decline in US crude production levels could push down their average levels below 9
million barrels per day this time. A deal to freeze oil output by OPEC and non-OPEC producers fell apart on
Sunday after Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran join in despite calls on Riyadh to save the agreement and help
prop up crude prices. It was the worst possible outcome for oil producers at their weekend meeting in Doha, with
their failure to reach even a weak agreement showing very publicly their divisions and inability to act in their
own interests. North Dakota's oil output is expected to resume large declines in March and April after a smallerthan-expected slide in February, a state regulator said on Friday, as producers continue to focus on the most
economical drilling areas. Kuwait reduced its crude oil output and refining production on Sunday as part of an
emergency plan to help the OPEC member deal with the largest petroleum workers' strike in years

✍Base Metal
Metal for delivery in far-month June contracts edged higher by Rs 2.20, or 0.69 per cent, to Rs 322 per kg in a
business volume of 92 lots.Globally, copper for delivery in three months rose 2.2 per cent to USD 4,766.50 a
tonne on the London Metal Exchange ( LME).Analysts said that apart from pick-up in domestic demand, a
firming overseas trend after data showed a strong recovery in China's exports in March, mainly influenced
copper futures here.China is the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, nickel for delivery in May gained Rs 4.30, or 0.75 per cent, to Rs 577.80 per kg, in a business
turnover of six lots. The metal for delivery in April rose by Rs 4.10, or 0.72 per cent, to trade at Rs 571.70 per kg
in 644 lots.
Analysts said apart from increased domestic demand from alloy-makers, firmness in metal at the London Metal
Exchange, influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

Industrial metals fell on Friday after strong Chinese economic data raised fears that government stimulus
programmes in the top metals consumer are not sustainable, and as the market also looked ahead to a key
meeting of oil producers.Heavy rains in central Chile have prompted global miner Anglo American Plc and
state-owned producer Codelco to temporarily suspend operations at two major copper mines with combined
annual capacity of 880,000 tonnes. Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) has appointed Bechtel as contractor for the
planned $3.5 billion expansion of its production facilities, it said in a bourse statement on Sunday. South Korea
bought 1,000 tonnes of Belgian zinc for July 29 arrival via a tender, the state-run Public Procurement Services
said on its website. China's nickel prices posted their biggest daily rise in nearly five months mid-week, boosted
by speculation about planned state purchases and on reduced availability of nickel pig iron, an alternative used in
stainless steel production, traders said.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
 With above normal monsoon rainfall expected in 2016, the country is likely to get bumper production
of rice, see increase in production of oilseeds and pulses and set stage for excellent rabi production.
However, consumers will have to pay hefty price for at another five to six months for pulses till the
next harvest hits markets and for sugar, currently priced at Rs 45/kg in retail, as good monsoon will
not help cut the expected sugar production deficit in 2016-17. Even if the monsoon is delayed till the
third week of June in Marathwada, it may not affect cotton and soyabean much. This year, we want to
give a loud message for planting desi cotton, which gave yields comparable to Bt cotton due to
drought conditions.

 State-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) has invited bids from the scheduled banks for raising shortterm loan of Rs 20,000 crore for one month period. To meet out its short term fund requirement for
procurement and distribution of food grains, the Corporation is considering raising short term loans
from the scheduled Banks only for one month tenure, the FCI said in the tender document. The FCI is
raising short term loan because its subsidy arrears have touched Rs 58,650 crore, as on March 31. FCI
intends to raise short-term loan of Rs 20,000 crore with greenshoe option (the borrowing through STL
will not exceed Rs 30,000 crore at any point of time) from scheduled banks for one month maturity.
The tender was floated on April 13 and the last date for of submission of offer is April 26. Further, to
bring down the subsidy arrear in this fiscal, the government had earlier said it may consider additional
food subsidy over and above the budgetary provision, if required, towards the end of the current
financial year. The bulk of the subsidy is paid to FCI for buying foodgrains at support price and
running the public distribution system (PDS). The PDS operation cost has risen sharply in the past
few years due to increase in the minimum support prices (MSP) of grains as well as high storage
costs. The FCI also has a cash credit limit of Rs 54,495 crore with a consortium of 67 banks. The
government has earmarked Rs 1,34,834.61 crore as food subsidy for the financial year 2016-17, out
of which about Rs 1.03 lakh crore is for FCI.While, in the 2015-16 period, the government had
initially allocated Rs 97,000 crore to FCI, which was later increased to Rs 1,12,000 crore at the
revised estimate stage.
✍ RM Seed
Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 0.87 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives
Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on account of the weak crushing and
export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard Seed futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs.
4,340 per quintal, down by 0.87 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,364 against the previous closing price of Rs.
4,378. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,339.

✍ Jeera
Jeera prices closed lower by 3.13 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the producing regions in the midst of a decline in the
export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 15,640 per quintal, down by
3.13 per cent, after opening at Rs. 16,055 against the previous closing price of Rs. 16,145. It touched the intraday low of Rs. 15,640.Futures started the day on a bearish note shading the previous gains on reports of upsurge
in arrivals. The entire running contract tumbled by above 3 % on Tuesday. Though the prices in the physical
markets were attractive, farmers brought more produce which created supply glut. Stock positions at the
NCDEX accredited warehouses are 2077 tonnes and 449 MT are under process as on 10 April 2016.

✍Chana
Chana prices closed lower by 2.01 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses along with high supplies in major
producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for April 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,927 per quintal, down by
2.01 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,999 against the previous closing price of Rs. 5,028. It touched the intra-day
low of Rs. 4,898.

The National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign-2016 was organized on 11th and 12th April, 2016
at New Delhi and was inaugurated by Shri Radha Mohan Singh, Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers
Welfare.The importance of marketing reforms in agriculture sector was highlighted in the conference. It was
disclosed that Government is launching the scheme for establishing National Agricultural Market (NAM) on
14th April, 2016, which will cover 200 markets by September 2016 and another 200 by March, 2017. To
facilitate focused deliberations, the states were divided into thirteen groups on different topics on the first day of
the campaign in which for Pulses & Oil seeds – strategy to improve productivity and production of pulses &
oilseeds through improved technology package. During last week, we have seen good rally in chana prices.
However after witnessing profit booking, currently at low levels there is selling pressure. Also there is
imposition of 20% additional margin on long position NCDEX Chana May futures effective from today. During
2014-15 India has imported 21.95 lakh tones pulse from Canada and from April to January it was 20.04 lakh
tonnes. The government, in its Second Advance Estimates for production of major crops, in February 2016,
estimated the output of chana at 8.09 lt – 10 per cent higher compared to last season on a larger sowing area and
better climatic conditions.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research Investment
Advisor Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This
document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital
Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the
contents stated herein. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities
that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as
an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities or commodities.

All information, levels & recommendations provided above are given on the basis of technical & fundamental
research done by the panel of expert of Ways2Capital but we do not accept any liability for errors of opinion.
People surfing through the website have right to opt the product services of their own choices.

Any investment in commodity market bears risk, company will not be liable for any loss done on these
recommendations. These levels do not necessarily indicate future price moment. Company holds the right to
alter the information without any further notice. Any browsing through website means acceptance of disclaimer.

DISCLOSURE
High Brow Market Research Investment Advisor Pvt. Ltd. or its associates does not do business with companies
covered in research report nor is associated in any manner with any issuer of products/ securities, this ensures
that there is no actual or potential conflicts of interest. To ensure compliance with the regulatory body, we have
resolved that the company and all its representatives will not make any trades in the market.
Clients are advised to consider information provided in the report as opinion only & make investment decision
of their own. Clients are also advised to read & understand terms & conditions of services published on website.
No litigations have been filed against the company since the incorporation of the company.


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