Epic Research Daily Agri Report 18th April 2016 .pdf
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Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
18 April 2016
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Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Most Active Contract
CHANGE CHANGE %
Commodities In News
Jeera on NCDEX settled down amid lack of buying and improving
supplies from the producing belts. Though, some losses were capped
due to some fresh export enquiries at the spot market. However, the
sources stated that the total jeera production is projected to decline by
15 percent to reach 45 lakh tonnes as jeera area will be shifted towards
castor seed for better returns. There are reports that ill-timed rains have
hit the quality in some pockets of Gujarat and Rajasthan pushing the
prices up.However, overall jeera output is estimated to higher than last
year because of better acreage . As per second advance estimate of
Gujarat for 2015-16 jeera production is pegged at 211,000 ton up from
197,000 a year ago.
Soyabean on NCDEX settled down on hope of higher supply in
domestic market following expectation of above than the normal
monsoon rains. Prices of the bean were under pressure on hopes of
higher supply after Skymet, a private weather forecaster, said 2016
Indian monsoon is likely to remain above than the normal at 105% of
Long Period Average (LPA) of 887 mm for four month period from
June to September.The El Nino effect is likely to wane after monsoon
hits the southern Kerala coast by the end of May.
Mentha oil on MCX settled up as support triggered by export as well
as domestic demand from pharma and fragrances companies. Support
also seen after the report that Global demand for flavors and fragrances
(F&F) - flavour blends, fragrance blends, essential oils & natural
extracts, and aroma chemicals - is forecast to grow 3.9 percent per year,
reaching $ 26.3 billion in 2020 from $ 21.70 billion in 2015, as per the
Freedonia Group report. Increasing consumer demand for natural
products and transparency in labelling, driven in part by health
concerns regarding artificial ingredients, will impact demand,
particularly in developed countries, noted the report. Prices also seen
supported in the anticipation that current year production can slip more
that 35% due to lower plantings on falling prices in the last two years.
The Basmati price have gone up 11.7% in the past one month, promising
some respite to traders even as excess supply and weak demand are
expected to continue in the near term, according to credit rating agency
ICRA and some experts.Most of the companies are expected to report a
decline in profitability in 2015-16, which will weaken the leverage profile
of these companies. Listed companies such as KRBL, LT Foods and
Kohinoor Foods with established brands such as India Gate, Dawat and
Kohinoor armed with strong distribution networks are likely to be better
placed to deal with the situation, the agency said. "The scenario of excess
supply and weak international demand is expected to linger in the near
term, impacting the financial profile of basmati rice players," Sabyasachi
Majumdar, co-head of corporate rating at ICRA, said.The industry is
expected to witness weak sales growth or degrowth and decline in
profitability in 2015-16, Majumdar said. "Inability to liquidate stocks and
recover funds from debtors are likely to increase the funding requirements
and hence leverage. Nevertheless, players with established brands and
strong distribution network are likely to be better placed to cope with the
challenges," he said. Majumdar said that the situation is likely to improve
only from the next basmati paddy harvest harvest season in the second half
of FY17.While basmati price is consumed across the globe, West Asian
countries account for most of the imports. Within West Asia, Iran and
Saudi Arabia are the two largest buyers, together accounting for over 50%
of basmati rice exports from India. The country's farm production is likely
to be better in 2016-17 with forecast of above normal monsoon after two
consecutive years of drought, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh
said.The Met office predicted that there will be 'above normal' monsoon
this year, easing fears over farm and economic growth."As per IMD
forecast, definitely agriculture production will be better in 2016-17,"
Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said on the sidelines of a national
kharif conference here."We had deficient monsoon last two years. There
was 12 per cent deficient rains in 2014-15. And the following year, there
was 14 per cent deficiency. But we were better prepared. State
governments also cooperated and results were there all to see," he added.
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
National Market Update
IMD has forecast above normal monsoons with precipitation at 106% of
normal. There is 94% probability of above normal monsoons.
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET
58 sugar mills in Maharashtra had produced 82 lakh tons of sugar in 2015-16
(01st Oct, 2015 – 31st Mar, 2016) compared to 93.6 lakh tons of production
made last year during the corresponding period.
U.P had produced 65.7 lakh tons of sugar in 2015-16 (01st Oct, 2015 – 31st
Mar, 2016) which was 3.63% higher than the production made last year during
the corresponding period.
Sugar production fell by 5.4% in Karnataka which produced 40.16 lakh tons
of sugar in 2015-16 (01st Oct, 2015 – 31st Mar, 2016) compared to 42.47 lakh
tons of production in 2014-15 (01st Oct, 2014 – 31st Mar, 2015).
India has exported 82.3 thousand tons of sugar this week (ending on 03rd
Apr, 2016) which is 4% lower than the sugar exported last week.
Indian sugar production fell by 4.13% as the country produced 237 lakh tons
of sugar in 2015-16 (01st Oct, 2015 – 31st Mar,2016) compared to 247.20 lakh
tons of production in 2014-15 (01st Oct, 2014 – 31st Mar,2015).
India exported 3.59 lakh tons of sugar in March, 2016 compared to 3.18 lakh
tons of imports made during the same period.
SELL CORIANDER MAY BELOW 6615 TARGET 6570 6470 SL
SELL GUARGUM MAY BELOW 5840 TARGET 5790 5720 SL
SELL TURMERIC MAY BELOW 8360 TARGET 8316 8256 SL
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