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Epic Research Weekly Agri Report 18th April 2016 .pdf


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Title: 6 x 1000 Project - Segment
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WEEKLY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
18 APRIL 2016

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Weekly Wrap Up
MONTH

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

% CHG

VOL

MONTH

OPEN

HIGH

CORIANDER

APR

7300

7300

6615

SUPPORT

SUPP.1

SUPP. 2

6488

6209

6767

6894
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

7153

7579

-5.44

27380

Coriander short term
trend is bearish and
may continue in coming
days.

-

-

-

-

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

-

-

8530

8580

8222

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

8221

8043

8400

8400
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

8579

8759

% CHG

VOL

-

-

PIVOT

LEVELS

-

RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

-

-

GUARGUM

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

-

INTRADAY

TURMERIC

APR

CLOSE

CASTORSEED

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

LOW

-1.11

60150

Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
may continue in coming
days.

APR

5890

6070

5750

SUPPORT

SUPP. 1

SUPP. 2

5723

5577

5870

PIVOT

INTRADAY
LEVELS

5897
RESISTAN
CE

RES. 1

RES. 2

6043

6217

+0.51

78286

Guargum Short term
trend is bearish and
may continue in
coming days.

2

Weekly Recommendations

BUY CORIANDER MAY ABOVE 7300 TARGET 7500 7770 SL BELOW 7080
SELL CORIANDER MAY BELOW 6615 TARGET 6415 6145 SL ABOVE 6765

BUY GUARGUM MAY ABOVE 6070 TARGET 6250 6450 SL BELOW 5870
SELL GUARGUM MAY BELOW 5750 TARGET 5570 5370 SL ABOVE 5950

3

Commodities In News
Jeera on NCDEX settled down amid lack of buying and improving
supplies from the producing belts. Though, some losses were capped due to
some fresh export enquiries at the spot market. However, the sources stated
that the total jeera production is projected to decline by 15 percent to reach
45 lakh tonnes as jeera area will be shifted towards castor seed for better
returns. There are reports that ill-timed rains have hit the quality in some
pockets of Gujarat and Rajasthan pushing the prices up.However, overall
jeera output is estimated to higher than last year because of better acreage .
As per second advance estimate of Gujarat for 2015-16 jeera production is
pegged at 211,000 ton up from 197,000 a year ago.
Soyabean on NCDEX settled down on hope of higher supply in domestic
market following expectation of above than the normal monsoon rains.
Prices of the bean were under pressure on hopes of higher supply after
Skymet, a private weather forecaster, said 2016 Indian monsoon is likely to
remain above than the normal at 105% of Long Period Average (LPA) of
887 mm for four month period from June to September.The El Nino effect is
likely to wane after monsoon hits the southern Kerala coast by the end of
May.
Mentha oil on MCX settled up as support triggered by export as well as
domestic demand from pharma and fragrances companies. Support also seen
after the report that Global demand for flavors and fragrances (F&F) flavour blends, fragrance blends, essential oils & natural extracts, and aroma
chemicals - is forecast to grow 3.9 percent per year, reaching $ 26.3 billion
in 2020 from $ 21.70 billion in 2015, as per the Freedonia Group report.
Increasing consumer demand for natural products and transparency in
labelling, driven in part by health concerns regarding artificial ingredients,
will impact demand, particularly in developed countries, noted the report.
Prices also seen supported in the anticipation that current year production
can slip more that 35% due to lower plantings on falling prices in the last
two years.

ECONOMIC NEWS
The Basmati price have gone up 11.7% in the past one month, promising
some respite to traders even as excess supply and weak demand are
expected to continue in the near term, according to credit rating agency
ICRA and some experts.Most of the companies are expected to report a
decline in profitability in 2015-16, which will weaken the leverage profile
of these companies. Listed companies such as KRBL, LT Foods and
Kohinoor Foods with established brands such as India Gate, Dawat and
Kohinoor armed with strong distribution networks are likely to be better
placed to deal with the situation, the agency said. "The scenario of excess
supply and weak international demand is expected to linger in the near
term, impacting the financial profile of basmati rice players," Sabyasachi
Majumdar, co-head of corporate rating at ICRA, said.The industry is
expected to witness weak sales growth or degrowth and decline in
profitability in 2015-16, Majumdar said. "Inability to liquidate stocks and
recover funds from debtors are likely to increase the funding requirements
and hence leverage. Nevertheless, players with established brands and
strong distribution network are likely to be better placed to cope with the
challenges," he said. Majumdar said that the situation is likely to improve
only from the next basmati paddy harvest harvest season in the second half
of FY17.While basmati price is consumed across the globe, West Asian
countries account for most of the imports. Within West Asia, Iran and
Saudi Arabia are the two largest buyers, together accounting for over 50%
of basmati rice exports from India. The country's farm production is likely
to be better in 2016-17 with forecast of above normal monsoon after two
consecutive years of drought, Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh
said.The Met office predicted that there will be 'above normal' monsoon
this year, easing fears over farm and economic growth."As per IMD
forecast, definitely agriculture production will be better in 2016-17,"
Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh said on the sidelines of a
national kharif conference here."We had deficient monsoon last two years.
There was 12 per cent deficient rains in 2014-15. And the following year,
there was 14 per cent deficiency. But we were better prepared. State
governments also cooperated and results were there all to see," he added.

4

NEWS RECAP
COMMODITY HEADLINES
Now, Punjab farmers can hire tractors, farm implements using mobiles.
 Andhra Pradesh targets to produce 172 lakh tonnes foodgrains in FY17.
Government sees better agricultural output this year on hopes of good monsoon.
 Basmati prices likely to firm up in near term despite tepid demand.
 Poor back-to-back monsoons, coupled with depleting reservoirs and a heatwave have hit rural India
hard.
 Govt to continue regulating seed, pharma prices: Radha Mohan Singh.
 2016 monsoon to be above average: Skymet.
 Won’t allow firms such as Monsanto to exploit farmers: Radha Mohan Singh, Agriculture Minister.
 India's February tea output rises 5 percent y/y:Tea Board.
 TGBL commissions the Tea Research Association to study climate changes affecting India's tea
growth.
 Drought-hit Maharashtra plans cloud-seeding.
5

SPOT QUOTES
COMMODITY NAME

LOCATION

PRICE

COMMODITY NAME

LOCATION

PRICE

Barley

Jaipur

1546.65

Ref Soya Oil

Nagpur

653

Chana

Bikaner

5050

Ref Soya Oil

Mumbai

645

Chana

Delhi

5219.6

Shankar Kapas

Rajkot

988.95

Soy Bean

Indore

4197

Soy Bean

Nagpur

4201.15

Chana

Indore

5279.3

Coriander

Kota

7360.35

Cotton

Kadi

16337.9

Guar Gum

Jodhpur

5817.4

Soy Bean

Kota

3912.5

Guar Seed 10 MT

Jodhpur

3357.8

Soymeal

Indore

38100

Guarseed

Bikaner

3325

Sugar M Grade

Erode

3695

Jeera

Unjha

16116.65

Sugar M Grade

Muzaffar Nagar

3612.5

Mustardseed

Jaipur

4440.6

Sugar M Grade

Delhi

3635

Mustardseed

Alwar

4437

Sugar M Grade

Kolkatta

3730

Ref Soya Oil

Indore

646.3

Sugar S

Vashi

3600.55

6

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