Altium Renewables Report 4 November 2011 (PDF)

04 November 2011

Sector Note > Renewables & Cleantech

Renewables & Cleantech

It's all about the cost of electricity production
Companies impacted
SSE
Iberdrola
Centrica

We note a recent broker report highlighting that Scottish independence
would pose an unacceptable risk for developers of renewable energy
assets North of the border. We would highlight the fact that Scotland is the
windiest part of Europe and as such has the potential to be the lowest cost
supplier of renewable energy. The UK is bound by EU emission reduction
targets and Scottish based renewables will play a key part in
decarbonising our energy market place; regardless of the political scene.
We therefore do not share the view the SSE, Iberdrola or Centrica are at
risk by developing renewable energy assets in Scotland.

§

The Scottish National Party (SNP) won an overall majority at the May elections and as
such believes it has the mandate to seek independence from the UK. The SNP is
expected to seek a referendum on independence in 2013 or 2014. Current opinion
polls suggest 45% approval rating for independence. The SNP has laid down
renewable energy as its cornerstone policy for job and wealth creation, targeting
renewable power generation moving from around 10TWh to around 50TWh by 2020.
To achieve this target, capacity would need to double from 13GW to 26GW with the
bulk of this increase coming from wind energy. Wind energy would be the lowest cost
and mostly readily available power source and as such would be a fundamental part of
meeting the UK’s carbon reduction commitments.

§

We do not share recent competitor analysis that utilities developing renewable energy
assets are exposed to stranded asset risk from an independent Scotland. We highlight
the following key reasons why this is not the case.

§

Leaving the political issues aside - the cost of electricity generation is a function of:
·
·
·

In terms of wind energy production costs, Scotland has the potential to be the lowest cost
generator of wind energy in Europe due its unique wind characteristics.

Analyst
David Cunningham

The capital cost of the generation plant
The operating cost of the generation plant
The MWhs of electricity generated per MW of generating plant installed

020 7484 4160

david.cunningam@altiumsecurities.co.uk

Sales & Trading
Ed Walsh

020 7484 4063

Clare Banham

020 7484 4052

Melanie Sharp

0207 484 4047

Rob Jenkins

020 7484 4067

Melvyn Brown

020 7484 4058

Oliver Toleman

020 7484 4055

Scott Stirling

0141 413 0632

This is a marketing communication.
The disclaimer is an integral part of
this document and should be read in
conjunction with it.
Our research is available via our website
www.altiumsecurities.com and via
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Capital IQ, Factset and Bloomberg.

www.altiumsecurities.com

§

Higher capacity wind farms in Scotland can generate electricity more cheaply than the
rest of the UK and most of Continental Europe and accommodate large electricity
transmission distances. Recent competitor analysis looks at the issue of the cost of
future renewable energy generated in Scotland based on today’s capital and
operational costs for wind farm developments and it fails to recognise that Scotland is
the windiest part of Europe (see Chart 1, Table 3 later in this report). As a result of this
Scotland enjoys higher capacity factors than the 26% reflected in the recently
published broker report. Indeed, capacity factors of around 50% are observed in the
windiest onshore locations in Scotland with obvious implications for its offshore wind
industry. Generally most operating and to be constructed wind farm sites in Scotland
enjoy capacity factors in excess of 30% leading to an IRR uplift of 3% versus 26%
capacity sites.

04 November 2011

Sector Note > Renewables & Cleantech

§

Without Scottish based renewables the rest of the UK would be required to build far
more MWs of renewable energy (most likely wind) to achieve its climate change
objectives. England has a low wind speed regime combined with high urban density
and as such the cost of meeting UK Government emission reduction target would be
more expensive without Scottish based renewables. We therefore view Scottish
independence an irrelevant factor in meeting UK wide reduction commitments as the
lowest cost supplier will always be sought first.

§

In order to meet the UK’s target of 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020
onshore wind will play a key element in delivering the lowest cost form of carbon free
power. This view is shared by a report completed by ARUP and commissioned by the
DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change) in July this year, stating that
onshore wind represents the lowest cost form of renewable energy with the potential
to deploy 17.3GW by 2030 (median forecast). In addition to this, Scotland is
anticipated to remain an important and increasing part of the onshore wind generation,
as evidenced in Table 1 and 2. Scotland’s wind energy resource is 78% of the UK
average, while 62% is either operational, under construction or in planning.

Table 1: UK onshore wind accessible resources
England and Wales

Scotland

Northern Ireland

UK

20,291

68,824

20,564

109,679

Capacity (MW)

Source: ETSE 200, New & Renewable Energy: Prospects in the UK for the 21st century

Table 2: High-level distribution of UK onshore wind prospects (MW)

England and Wales
Scotland
GB

Operational

Under Construction

Consented

In Planning

Total

1,726 (43%)

130 (12%)

1,490 (45%)

1,775 (35%)

5,120 (38%)

2,314 (57%)

928 (88%)

1,833 (55%)

3,229 (65%)

8,304 (62%)

4,041 (100%)

1,058 (100%)

3,323 (100%)

5,004 (100%)

13,425 (100%)

Source: RenewableUK & Oxera analysis

2

§

The proposed Electricity Market Reform (EMR) includes the introduction of a Carbon
Price Support (CPS) which may lead to increased electricity pricing, particularly if we
fail to meet our 2020 renewables targets. The floor price takes effect from April 2013,
starting at £16/tCO2, increases linearly to £30/tCO2 by 2020 and is planned to increase
to £70/tCO2 by 2030. Analysis completed by HM Treasury, the Committee on Climate
Change (CCC) and Oxera predict that CPS will double carbon costs for fossil fuel
based industries before 2030. To illustrate the impact upon wholesale electricity
pricing, a carbon price of £25/tCO2 would increase the marginal cost of energy
generation from a modern combined cycle gas turbine by around £9.0/MWh. We
therefore do not share the view suggested by competitor research that natural gas
could meet our overall energy needs in a cost effective manner as this does not fit in
with current UK Government strategy. The CPS has the potential to lead to higher
long term carbon prices than would have been delivered under the EU ETS (European
Trading Scheme) alone. Based upon the UK’s dependence upon Scottish wind energy
it is a commercial and logical view that the lowest cost of renewable energy will be
utilised first regardless of the political stewardship of Scotland.

§

Energy security is also a major part of future planning. For the UK to expose itself to
greater energy dependence from the Middle East and Russia would be too great a risk
for the energy mix. As a consequence we believe that locally supplied clean energy
would almost certainly be treated as a priority, not as a stranded asset as depicted in
the recently published competitor broker report. We do not see Shale Gas or Nuclear
energy providing viable alternatives in terms of cost, risk and return, or meeting our
carbon reduction commitments.

04 November 2011

Sector Note > Renewables & Cleantech

§

Based upon Scotland’s rich wind resource the cost of the UK Government’s climate
change policies are reduced, not increased. If an independent Scotland were held to
ransom with their stranded renewable energy assets this would only lead the rest of
the UK paying a higher electricity price (due to carbon costs and the potential for fossil
fuel price inflation). Additionally, mainland Europe (in particular Germany) would be a
ready buyer of zero emission energy if the rest of the UK was unwilling to accept their
neighbours’ energy exports. There are already plans to link Scotland’s energy exports
into the Nord Pool in addition to increasing the availability of pumped storage thereby
reducing intermittency from wind and decreasing costs further.

§

Another factor omitted from the recent competitor research is the current system
charges for accessing the UK grid. Transmissions costs for Scottish based wind farms
are substantially higher in order to provide a levelised return for investors based upon
increased capacity and to a lesser extent grid transmission distances. See Table 3,
which summarises evidence of transmission costs for Scottish based wind farms

Table 3: UK regional load factors and costs (pre-tax)
TNUoS generation zone

TNUos (£/kW)

Capex Index

Fixed O&M

Load Factor (%)

Western Highland & Skye

22.8

1.0

1.3

26-36

North Scotland

20.1

1.0

1.1

24-36

Central Highlands

17.6

1.0

1.3

22-32

Argyll

13.3

1.0

1.3

24-34

South Scotland

12.5

0.9

1.1

22-32

North east England

8.8

1.0

1.0

22-34

Humber & Lancashire

5.4

1.1

0.9

19-29

South Yorks & North Wales

3.6

1.1

1.0

19-29

Midlands

1.6

1.0

0.9

18-28

Source: Mott MacDonald, Scottish Powr & Oxera analysis

§

The current UK Renewables Obligation Scheme (ROC) is the main subsidy for
stimulating wind energy production. Wind farms attract one ROC per MWh (expected
to fall to 0.9ROC/MW after consultation). If Scottish operational wind farms where
grandfathered in (although perhaps not) we would still expect the price of ROC’s to
increase as the rest of the UK utility sector would seek alternative sources of reducing
their carbon exposure. Ultimately the rest of the UK would procure the lowest cost of
carbon free power and this would almost certainly be found in the Scottish market
place. We therefore see minimal risk to developing Scottish based renewable assets
regardless of the prevailing political scene. The recently published competitor
research suggests that the rest of the UK would be subsidising Scotland’s wind energy
production, which is true; however without this source of energy the costs of meeting
the UK’s EU emissions targets would be substantially higher. Utilities operating in an
independent Scotland would not require access to ROC as the prevailing wholesale
price for clean energy would be sufficiently high enough via power purchase
agreements to mitigate the independent risk in our view.

§

The future capital cost of wind turbines will be driven down by competition (in
particular from the Chinese), innovative design and increasing the rated capacity of
wind turbines. This is precisely what DECC’s Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Task
Force has been assembled to do. Wind turbine costs have fallen by around 18% in the
last two years and are expected to fall further as the rated capacity and efficiency of
turbines increases. To this end companies like Gamesa, Doosan and Mitsubishi have
all committed to set up operations in Scotland to exploit its rich wind resource. There
are also operational cost reductions in the pipeline in condition monitoring and asset
management techniques designed to reduce the cost of operating onshore and
offshore wind farms.

3

04 November 2011

Chart 1: European wind resources

Source: RISO National Laboratory

4

Sector Note > Renewables & Cleantech

§

The renewable industry has seen substantial cost reduction programmes in the last
few years and this is set to continue (unlike other forms of fossil fuel based energy).
This will reduce the subsidy burden moving forward as well as mitigating the risk of
carbon price exposure via the ETS and CPS.

§

The practical benefits of pumped storage appear to have been overlooked in the
recently published competitor analysis. Without pumped storage the UK’s electricity
system would not be able to operate at the levels of availability we all enjoy, in
addition to reducing the cost of energy production. Pumped storage in Scotland will
facilitate better management of intermittent sources of electricity and will enable better
prices to be commanded by on-demand renewables.

§

Utilities remain focussed on key issues facing the sector, namely; EMR, grid
connection availability / charges and planning decisions that impact upon their key
investment decisions. The issue of an independent Scotland does not take a
prominent role in the investment decision making process. This view has already been
supported by bodies such as SSE. In the last 12 months the Scottish renewable
industry has invested more than £750m, with the industry planning further investment
of £46bln to 2020.

§

We take the view that the recently published competitor research presents a rather
alarmist perspective of the renewables investment scene in Scotland. Committed and
planned expenditure will prevail in order to meet our emissions reductions and to
neutralise exposure to fossil fuel price inflation in the future and to this end low cost
renewable energy from Scotland will play a key role.

04 November 2011

Sector Note > Renewables & Cleantech

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Recommendation (12 months)
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10% or greater upside
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5