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Commodity Report Ways2capital 20 june 2016 .pdf


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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2016

111.65

110.35

109.10

108.60

107.90

107.35

106.60

105.40

104.10

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

319.10

314.60

310.20

307.60

305.70

303.10

301.30

296.80

292.40

CRUDE OIL

19 JUL 2016

3445

3373

3301

3273

3229

3201

3157

3085

3013

GOLD

05AUG 2016

31585

31230

30875

30738

30520

30383

30165

29810

29455

LEAD

30 JUN 2016

121.35

119..10

116.85

115.50

114.60

113.25

112.35

110.10

107.85

NATURALGAS

27 JUN 2016

187.90

183.50

179.10

177.40

147.70

173

170.30

165.90

161.50

NICKEL

30 JUN 2016

645.70

631.60

617.50

612

603.40

597.90

589.30

575.20

561.10

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

42762

42265

41768

41565

41271

41068

40774

40277

39780

ZINC

30 JUN 2016

144.95

141.15

137.35

135

133.55

131.20

129.75

125.95

122.15

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30 JUN 2016

119.70

115.50

111.40

109.70

107.20

105.55

103.10

98.95

94.80

COPPER

30 JUN 2016

343.20

331.25

319.30

312.15

307.35

300.20

295.40

283.45

245.95

CRUDE OIL

19 JUL 2016

3844

3649

3454

3350

3259

3155

3064

2869

2674

GOLD

05 AUG2016

34100

32949

31798

31200

30647

30049

29496

28345

27194

LEAD

30 JUN 2016

122.40

119.80

117.10

115.65

114.50

113

111.80

109.20

106.50

NATURALGAS

27 JUN 2016

196.20

189.10

182

178.80

174.90

171.70

167.80

160.70

153.60

NICKEL

30 JUN 2016

666.80

646

625.20

615.80

604.40

595

583.60

562.80

542

SILVER

05 JUL 2016

46588

44898

43208

42285

41518

40595

39828

38138

36448

ZINC

30 JUN 2016

157.10

149.65

142.20

137.40

134.75

129.95

127.30

119.85

112.40

Monday, 20 June 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL
SELL GOLD AUG BELOW 30000 TGT 29700 SL 30300
BUY COPPER JUN ABOVE 316 TGT 325 SL 309

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
SELL LEAD JUL BELOW 113.30 TGT 110.30 SL 116.30 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL CRUDEOIL JUL BELOW 3268 TGT 3166 SL 3371 - MADE LOW OF 3198

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28 JUN 2016

67.50

67.30

67.15

67.05

66.95

66.85

66.80

66.60

66.45

EURINR

28 JUN 2016

76.55

76.30

76

75.85

75.75

75.55

75.45

75.20

74.90

GBPINR

28 JUN 2016

97.65

97.15

96.85

96.65

96.35

96.15

95.65

95.15

63.15

62.90

62.75

62.60

62.50

62.35

62.05

61.80

98.15
JPYINR

28 JUN 2016

63.45

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

28 JUN 2016

68.6
5

68.10

67.55

67.20

66.95

66.65

66.40

65.85

65.30

EURINR

28 JUN 2016

78.1
0

77.35

76.60

76.15

75.90

75.40

75.15

74.40

73.65

GBPINR

28 JUN 2016

102.
45

100.65

98.85

97.70

97.10

95.90

95.30

93.50

91.70

JPYINR

28 JUN 2016

65.0
5

64.25

63.40

63

62.55

62.15

61.70

60.85

60

WEEKLY FOREX CALL
BUY EURINR JUN ABOVE 76.15 TGT 76.65 SL 75.64
BUY GBPINR JUN ABOVE 96.32 TGT 96.92 SL 95.59
PREVIOUS WEEK CALL
BUY JPYINR JUN ABOVE 63.50 TGT 64.50 SL 62.50 - TGT ACHEIVED
SELL USDINR JUN BELOW 66.90 TGT 65.90 SL 67.90 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

657

650

643

640

636

633

629

622

615

SYBEANIDR

20 JUL 2016

4087

4006

3925

3876

3844

3795

3763

3682

3601

RMSEED

20 JUL 2016

4909

4828

4747

4705

4666

4624

4585

4504

4423

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2016

17865

17635

17405

17285

17175

17055

16945

16715

16485

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

657

650

643

640

636

633

629

622

615

✍NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

726

698

670

653

642

625

614

586

558

SYBEANIDR

20 JUL 2016

4480

4281

4082

3954

3883

3755

3684

3485

3286

RMSEED

20 JUL 2016

5309

5108

4907

4785

4706

4584

4505

4304

4103

JEERAUNJHA

20 JUL 2016

19275

18565

17855

17515

17145

16805

16435

15725

15015

SYOREFIDR

20 JUL 2016

726

698

670

653

642

625

614

586

558

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL
SELL SOYABEAN JUL BELOW 3835 TGT 3735 SL 3952
BUY JEERA JUL AOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17000

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL
SELL SOYABEAN JUL BELOW 3860 TGT 3760 SL 3967 - NOT EXECUTED
SELL RM SEED JUL BELOW 4644 TGT 4580 SL 4733 - NOT EXECUTED

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍GLOBAL UPDATE
 The Federal Reserve held short-term interest rates steady and officials lowered projections of how
much they’ll raise them in the coming years, signs that persistently slow economic growth and low
inflation are forcing the central bank to rethink how fast it can lift borrowing costs. Wednesday’s
moves marked a stark reversal from just a few weeks ago, when several Fed officials, including
Chairwoman Janet Yellen, dropped strong hints they might raise rates in June or July. Instead, she
emphasized the central bank’s uncertainty about when they’ll act and where rates are headed in 2018
and beyond. The uncertainty was striking in part because the Fed’s forecasts for the economy didn’t
change much from the quarterly projections released in March. Officials still expect modest economic
growth near 2% annually over the next three years, a rise in consumer-price inflation to 2%, and an
unemployment rate below 5%.

 In spite of the recent disappointing release of economic data sets from the nation along with
uncertainties in the global economy, Federal Reserve still hints a two gradual rate hikes in 2016.
However, the number of officials that expect the Fed to raise rates only once this year has gone up
significantly. The committee also cut its 2016 economic growth forecast to 2 percent from 2.2
percent. Projection for economic growth in 2017 was also slightly decreased.

✍BULLION
Gold rose on Friday after registering its biggest one-day fall since May 24 in the previous session, supported by
a softer dollar and headed for a third straight weekly gain. On a topsy-turvy Thursday, the safe-haven asset
breached the $1,300 level and hit a peak of $1,315.55 an ounce - nearly a two-year high - before turning 1%
lower following the suspension of campaigning for next week's "Brexit" referendum in Britain after a member of
Parliament was shot dead. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,283.90 an ounce at 0355 GMT. Bullion has risen 0.8%
for this week so far. Traders said that market dealings could be volatile next week ahead of the June 23
referendum when Britain will vote on whether to remain in the European Union or to leave. The Bank of
England escalated its warnings about fallout from the vote, saying it could harm the global economy and that
sterling looked increasingly likely to weaken further if "Leave" wins. Reflecting renewed optimism towards
gold, holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fun

U.S. gold fell 0.9% to $1,287.10. "Brexit concerns will still be the primary driver over the next few days," said
INTL FC Stone analyst Edward Meir, referring to the June 23 vote by Britain on whether it will leave the 28member European Union. "Given what is at stake, we think that gold will likely push higher until this
uncertainty lifts, Thursday's downside reversal notwithstanding," Meir said. Gold could get a further boost as a
safe haven if a vote by Britain to leave the group pushes Europe back into a recession. The Bank of England
escalated its warnings about fallout from the referendum, saying it could harm the global economy and that
sterling looked increasingly likely to fall further after any "Out" decision. "Leading into the Brexit vote, we
expect gold to remain around current levels between the $1,270-$1,300 range. But after then all bets are off as
everything depends on the results of the referendum," ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said. "If UK does leave the EU
we could see prices touching $1,400 in the immediate aftermath of the referendum," Hynes said. The dollar was

up slightly on Friday, rising 0.1% to 104.37 yen, but it was still down more than 2.5% for the week, after hitting
its lowest since August 2014 on Thursday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six
major peers, slipped 0.2% and is set for a weekly decline of the same magnitude. On Thursday, holdings in
SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.20% to 902.53 tonnes, the
highest since October 2013. Silver, which slid 2% for its biggest one-day fall in about a month on Thursday, rose
1.1% to $17.33 and was nearly flat for the week. Platinum and palladium were headed for a weekly decline
despite rising on Friday by 1% and 2.1% respectively.

✍ENERGY
Crude oil prices rose on Friday for the first time in seven days as markets took a breather from concerns about
the impact of Britain's possible exit from the European Union. Brent crude futures were up 59 cents, or 1.3%, at
$47.78 a barrel at 0143 GMT after slumping 3.6% in the previous session. The contract is on track to fall nearly
5.5% for the week. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 37 cents, or 0.8%, to $46.58. The contract
fell 3.8% in the previous session and prices are down around 5% so far this week. The British pound rose from a
two-month low after campaigning for next week's so-called Brexit vote next week was suspended following the
murder on Thursday of UK member of parliament Jo Cox, who was a vocal advocate for Britain to stay in the
European Union. Commodities across the board also posted gains, while equity benchmarks including Japan's
Nikkei stock average rose. "We need to brace ourselves for further volatility," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst
at Options Xpress in Sydney. "We are seeing a bit of a recovery now with maybe some short positions being
unwound. It is certainly going to be a wild ride for investors and traders going into the June 23 decision," he
said. Still, global oil majors Chevron Corp and Royal Dutch Shell Plc are putting small refineries on the auction
block as they look to trim lower-margin assets in the face of headwinds from rising crude oil prices. Chevron,
the second largest US oil company, is soliciting interest in its Burnaby, British Columbia, refinery and gasoline
stations, the company told Reuters. Shell is looking for buyers for its Martinez, California, refinery, two people
familiar with the situation told Reuters. Shell declined to comment.

✍ BASE METAL
Copper prices rose 0.8 percent last week to close at $4550 per tonne as minutes of the Bank of England's latest
decision on interest rates show that the monetary policy committee thinks inflation and economic growth would
be undermined if the British public votes to leave the EU, thereby urging people to vote in favor of REMAIN in
EU, easing some fears of Brexit. Traders said sentiment in copper remained firm as it rose after two days of
losses in global markets on evidence that Chinese growth is stabilizing and concerns over a build up in metal
stockpiles eased. Meanwhile, Copper for three-month delivery gained 1% to $4,557 a metric tonne on the
London Metal Exchange. It touched a four-month low of $4,483.50 on Thursday. In the national capital, copper
mixed scrap rose further by 2 to Rs 376 per kg. Following are today's metal rates (in Rs per kg): Zinc ingot Rs
98-104, Nickel plate (4x4) Rs 850-855, gun metal scrap Rs 227, Bell metal scrap Rs 229, copper mixed scrap Rs
376, chadri deshi Rs 295. Lead ingot Rs 76, lead imported Rs 82, aluminium ingots Rs 155, aluminium sheet
cutting Rs 151, aluminium wire scrap Rs 151 and aluminium utensils scrap Rs 149.

Supported by increased demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot markets, nickel prices traded
higher 0.63% to Rs 607.30 per kg in futures trade. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in July
month moved up by Rs 3.80, or 0.63%, to Rs 607.30 per kg in a business turnover of 35 lots. Likewise, the metal
for delivery in June traded higher by Rs 3.20 or 0.54% to Rs 600.40 per kg in 2,071 lots. Analysts said a pick-up
in demand by alloy-makers in the spot market mainly led to the rise in nickel prices at futures trade.

Lead prices went up by 0.70% to Rs 115.65 per kg in futures trade today as traders enlarged their positions amid
rising demand at domestic spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in the current
month rose by 80 paise or 0.70% to Rs 115.65 per kg in a business turnover of 940 lots. The metal for delivery
in July edged up by 75 paise or 0.65% to Rs 116.45 per kg in 52 lots. Market analysts said rising demand from
battery-makers in the domestic spot markets kept lead prices higher at futures trade but weakness in the base
metals pack at the London Metal Exchange on global growth concerns, limited the gains.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

 Slower- than-normal progress of the south-west monsoon has impacted sowing of rain-fed kharif
crops, according to data released by the agriculture ministry on Friday.So far, an area of 8.4 million
hectares has been sown, nearly 11% lower than the 9.4 million hectares sown by this time last year.
However, these are early days as the seasonal or total area under kharif crops in the June October
season is 106.2 million hectares. Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, coarse cereals and cotton are
planted till mid- to end-July. Sowing is expected to pick up pace as the monsoon progresses. Over the
past week, the monsoon has not moved beyond parts of Karnataka in southwestern India, although it
progressed into the eastern regions to cover West Bengal and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha.
The drought-hit states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh are yet to witness monsoon
showers. After two deficit rainfall years leading to a protracted drought, all eyes are on the monsoon
which is forecast to be above normal this year, at 106% of the long-period average. The south-west
monsoon is critical to the kharif crop season as over half of India’s farmland lacks assured irrigation
and India receives 80% of its annual rainfall during these four months.

 The import of pulses has come under the scanner of central intelligence agencies to check any black
marketing and cartelisation to jack up the prices of the commodity. The officials of Intelligence
Bureau (IB) and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) have alerted the field formation to the
possibility of such illegal activities by traders and hoarders, official sources said today. About 5.5
million tonnes of pulses were imported last fiscal, largely through private traders. The move comes as
the prices of pulses have continued to soar and reached Rs 200 per kg in retail. Various central
agencies and the Income Tax department have been conducting raids across the country for some time
to check hoarding.

✍SOYABEAN
Indian soybean futures gained on expectations of a delay in sowing as monsoon rains are yet to arrive in regions
where the oil seed is grown.The July soybean contract on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange rose
by 0.97 percent to 3,954 rupees ($58.92) per 100 kg.July soyoil futures eased 0.42 percent to 644 rupees per 10
kg due to high stocks of oil in the country.Farmers of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may switch to pulses
and other cash crop due to lower crushing demand. According to the SOPA, output of the soybean for 2015-16 is
forecasted down at 6.9 mt, compared to earlier estimate of 7.4 mt. At Indore spot market in top producer Madhya
Pradesh, soybean dropped by 29 rupees to 3968 rupee per 100 kgs. Oil meal exports during May 2016 are
reported at only 7,737 tons compared to 121,339 tons in May 2015 - down by 94% according to data compiled
by Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Farmers of MP and Maharashtra may switch to pulses and other

cash crop due to lower crushing demand. According to the SOPA, output of the soybean for 2015-16 is
forecasted down at 6.9 mt, compared to earlier estimate of 7.4 mt.

✍CHANA
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi)’s directive on Thursday asking exchanges not to launch new
chana (Bengal gram) contracts and allow only squaring off the open positions, following the suspension of chana
futures, had an impact on prices in mandis. Prices went down on Friday by 1.7 per cent. In futures market,
prices were below spot market as traders were reducing positions as heavy margins were already imposed by the
regulator.On Friday, the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) spot chana price fell
1.7 per cent to Rs 6954 a quintal in Delhi mandi while futures was down 0.66 per cent to Rs 6,875. June last
year, chana turnover on the NCDEX was Rs 1,165 crore and it was contributing 22.3 per cent of total NCDEX
volumes. However, in past two months the average volume has come down to Rs 165 crore, 5.5 per cent of the
exchange’s volumes.Even open interest a year ago used to be 0.29 million tonnes, which fell to 15,000 tonnes on
Friday.A sebi appointed task force is working on a criteria for commodities to qualify for trading in derivatives.
Wheat and maize prices have also shot up 10 to12 per cent since April, but available stock with government has
yet not raised panic button.

✍TURMERIC
Turmeric futures closed lower on Friday due to weak demand and reports of good sowing progress in Karnataka
and Tamilnadu. The Jul’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 0.72% lower to settle at Rs 7,976/quintal.
However, they closed negative on profit booking triggered by limited demand at spot market during closing
hours of trade. July futures ended at Rs.7976/quintal, down by 0.72% while August closed with loss of 0.87%
from its previous trade. Trade at Erode market remained steady at Rs.8400-8600/quintal for finger and Rs.81008300/quintal for bulb and arrivals were at 4000 bags. Steady trend was witnessed in Nizamabad market with
finger and bulb trading at Rs.8400/quintal and Rs.7800.quintal and arrivals at 600 bags.Reports of steady
domestic demand and expectation of higher sowing prospects have pressurizing prices. The prices may be range
bound to higher on reports of forecast of above normal rains in turmeric growing area in south India. Turmeric
arrivals have been higher in February, March and April compared to last year but the arrivals have slowed in
May as per agmarknet data. However, the arrivals are higher by 105% in May 2016 compared to last year same
month. Producers are releasing their lower or medium grade Turmeric and holding premium quality in the
anticipation of better return ahead on anticipation of some weather disturbances in the coming monsoon. As per
dept of commerce data, turmeric exports in 2015-16 are pegged at 85,426 tonnes while the export for the 201415 was 90,738 tonnes for the same period.

✍RM SEED
The July contract ended 0.69% down at Rs. 4,590 per quintal. The mustard prices are moving higher last week
on anticipation of limited supplies during the monsoon and good demand for oil from industrial buyers.Mustard
seed dropped third straight day in benchmark Jaipur market of Rajasthan on Friday due to slow demand at the
higher level as prices hit 5-month higher earlier this week.The recent surge in mustard prices were due to strong
demand for mustard oil from blenders, amid low arrivals of raw material in the spot market.However, demand
has slowed in last couple of days, as inventories with stockist were sufficient to meet any incremental
demand.Further crushing activity is slow amid disparity of Rs 3,638 per tonne to crushers, due to which off-take
of raw material was thin.Price gap between blended and pure oil was quoted nearly Rs 17/kg and the same gap is

easily saleable and attractive for market participant.Apart from local fundamentals, prices are also pressured by
weakness in futures market, which has fallen 3 percent in this week, after rallying 7 percent in June
itself.However, downside for mustard seed seen limited due to low arrivals and millers are facing supply
shortage of raw materials.Mustard seed arrivals were 1.60 lakh bags in today's trade across country, against 1.70
lakh bags on previous session.Mustard seed prices dropped Rs 25 today to trade at Rs 4,725/100kg in Jaipur
Market. While Mustard oil Expeller and Kacchi Gani eased Rs 2 to trade at Rs 790 and Rs 840/10 kg
respectively.However, Mustard cake was up Rs 10 to trade at Rs 2,350/100kg.At local bourse, mustard seed
most active July contract on the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX) was 0.12 percent
higher at Rs 4,688 while forward August contract was tad down at Rs 4,750 against Previous close of Rs 4,752.

✍JEERA
Jeera July’16 future prices ended the day in green at Rs. 17170 per quintal, up by 0.2%. On spot market front, at
Unjha market, the prices reported at around Rs.17600 and the total arrivals were 5000 bags. Stock positions at
the NCDEX accredited warehouses are 3481 tonnes and 3 MT are in process as on 17 June 2016. According to
Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during 2015- 16 (Apr-Feb) surged to 93,539 tonnes compared to
1.56 lt exported last year same period. The exports for 2015-16 declined compared to last year. Devaluation of
currencies in the buying countries and appreciation of Indian currency combined with high prices have led to a
steep decline in jeera exports in 2015-16. As per third advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production
is pegged at 2.13 lt higher by about 7% forecasted in revised fourth advance estimate of 1.97 lt. In 2013-14,
production was 3.46 lt. Industrial buyers have already sourced sufficient quantity for the domestic requirements
but the export demand may pick up as prices have been going down since last one month. In the next few
months, the prices will depend on export demand.


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