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BBC N Ireland's Northern Ireland Border Poll August 2016 .pdf


Original filename: BBC N Ireland's Northern Ireland Border Poll - August 2016.pdf
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Table of Contents

Table 1

Page 1

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base: All Adults aged 18+ years

Table 2

Page 6

Q2 If there was a referendum on the border would you:
Base: All Adults aged 18+ years

Table 3

Page 11

Q3a Has the recent decision for the UK to leave the European Union changed your mind on this issue or has that been
your view for longer than that?
Base: All who would vote in a referendum

Table 4

Page 15

Q3b Has the recent decision for the UK to leave the European Union changed your mind on this issue or has that been
your view for longer than that?
Base: All who would not vote/ don't know if would vote in a referendum

Table 5

Page 20

Q4 If a future referendum resulted in Scotland voting to leave the UK, how if at all, would that affect how you may
vote in a border poll in Northern Ireland
Base: All Adults aged 18+ years

Table 6

Page 25

Analysis of Sample
Base: All Adults aged 18+ years

Page 1

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 1/1

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

GENDER
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

Male Female

AGE
----------------------------------------18-24
years

25-34
years

35-44
years

45-54
years

55-64
years

65+
years

979
979
100%

a
A
481
466
100%

b
B
498
513
100%

c
C
130
135
100%

d
D
161
170
100%

e
E
164
178
100%

f
F
172
163
100%

g
G
146
135
100%

h
H
206
198
100%

Yes

321
33%

150
32%

171
33%

46
34%

49
29%

**79
44%
DGH

61
37%
gh

*33
24%

*53
27%

No

511
52%

**268 **243
58%
47%
B

69
51%

81
47%

**71
40%

84
51%
e

*82 **123
61%
62%
dE
DEf

Don't know

147
15%

**47 **100
19
10%
19%
14%
A
Columns Tested: A,B - C,D,E,F,G,H - I,J,K - L,M,N - O,P,Q,R

**40
24%
cFgH

28
16%

18
11%

20
15%

22
11%

Fieldwork: August 2016

AGE
-------------------18-34
years
i
I
291
305
100%

35-54
years

55+
years

MARITIAL STATUS
-------------------Wid/
Marr
Sep/
ied
Div. Single

SOCIAL GRADE
---------------------------

AB

C1

C2

DE

j
J
336
341
100%

k
K
352
333
100%

l
L
557
544
100%

m
M
136
138
100%

n
N
286
298
100%

o
O
193
184
100%

p
P
267
244
100%

q
Q
192
212
100%

r
R
327
339
100%

95 **140
31%
41%
iK

**86
26%

172
32%

47
34%

102
34%

**76
41%
Pqr

69
28%

66
31%

110
33%

150 **155 **205
49%
46%
62%
IJ

298
55%

70
51%

142
48%

90
49%

137
56%

114
54%

170
50%

74
14%

20
15%

53
18%

*18
10%

39
16%

32
15%

58
17%
o

**60
20%
jk

46
13%

41
12%

Page 1

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 1/2

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

SOCIAL GRADE
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

ABC1

C2DE

WORKING
STATUS
------------Empl
oyed

Other

ADULTS
--------------------

1

2

3+

979
979
100%

a
A
460
428
100%

b
B
519
551
100%

c
C
360
355
100%

d
D
346
344
100%

e
E
225
234
100%

f
F
477
460
100%

g
G
277
284
100%

Yes

321
33%

145
34%

177
32%

114
32%

105
31%

68
29%

157
34%

No

511
52%

226
53%

285
52%

192
54%

191
55%

125
53%

Don't know

147
15%

57
13%

90
16%

49
14%

48
14%

42
18%

CHILDREN U.16
------------None
Any
At
At
Home
Home
h
H
646
631
100%

CHILDREN U.16
--------------------------None
Three
At
or
Home
One
Two
more

TENURE
-------------------Owner
Pri
Occu Rented
vate
pier
NIHE Renter

i
I
333
348
100%

j
J
646
631
100%

k
K
154
162
100%

l
L
115
117
100%

m
M
64
68
100%

n
N
658
643
100%

o
O
164
176
100%

p
P
148
150
100%

96
34%

**187 **134
30%
39%
H

**187
30%

54
33%

**53
45%
J

28
40%

205
32%

52
30%

*63
42%
no

236
51%

150
53%

**359 **152
57%
44%
I

**359
57%
Lm

81
50%
l

**44
37%

28
41%

*354
55%
P

94
53%
P

**57
38%

68
15%

38
13%

86
14%

28
17%

21
18%

13
19%

*85
13%

30
17%

30
20%
n

86
14%

61
18%

Columns Tested: A,B - C,D - E,F,G - H,I - J,K,L,M - N,O,P

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 2

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 1/3

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

COMMUNITY
BACKGROUND
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

979
979
100%

Prote
stant
a
A
477
459
100%

Cath
olic
b
B
373
405
100%

REGION
SUMMARY
------------Grtr
Bel
fast
incld
Rest
BC
NI
c
C
330
380
100%

Grtr
Bel
fast

Tyrone
/Ferm
Down Armagh anagh

Derry Antrim

Urban

Rural

ETHNICITY
------------White
UK/
Ire
land

Other

e
E
104
161
100%

f
F
226
219
100%

g
G
201
159
100%

h
H
33
79
100%

i
I
138
131
100%

j
J
117
124
100%

k
K
160
107
100%

l
L
626
618
100%

m
M
353
361
100%

n
N
943
942
100%

o
O
34
34
100%

41
25%

**47
22%

58
37%
eFk

37
47%
eFk

*54
41%
eFK

**56
45%
EFK

28
26%

190
31%

131
36%

313
33%

9
25%

**103 **148
64%
68%
GhIJ
GHIJ

74
46%
j

33
41%

**50
38%

**41
33%

63
59%
gIJ

**350 **161
57%
45%
M

**503
53%
O

**6
19%

27
17%

9
11%

*27
21%
ef

*27
22%
eF

16
15%

**126
13%

**19
56%
N

321
33%

**82 **214
18%
53%
A

**88 **233
23%
39%
C

No

511
52%

**332 **124
72%
31%
B

**251 **260
66%
43%
D

Don't know

147
15%

67
17%
A

Bel
fast
City

AREA
-------------

d
D
649
599
100%

Yes

**46
10%

REGION
------------------------------------------------

**41 **106
11%
18%
C

17
11%

*24
11%

**77
13%

**70
19%
L

Columns Tested: A,B - C,D - E,F,G,H,I,J,K - L,M - N,O

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 3

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 1/4

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

NATIONAL IDENTITY
------------------------------------------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

979
979
100%

Briti
sh
a
A
474
457
100%

Northe
rn
Irish Irish

Engli Scotti
sh
sh

Welsh

b
B
274
294
100%

c
C
310
294
100%

*d
*D
15
12
100%

*e
*E
4
5
100%

**76 **175
17%
59%
ACG

85
29%
A

2
13%

1
24%

Yes

321
33%

No

511
52%

**322
71%
BCG

**80
27%
g

165
56%
BG

*10
82%

3
58%

Don't know

147
15%

58
13%

39
13%

43
15%

1
5%

1
18%

*f
*F
1
1
100%

0
-

1
100%

0
-

Other
g
G
31
35
100%

8
24%

NATIONAL IDENTITY
--------------------------------------------------------Brit
ish Irish British
Brit
and
and
Irish
North
ish North North
and
Brit
ern
and
ern
ern Northern
ish Irish Irish Irish Irish Irish
Irish
only
only
only
only
only
only
only Other
h
H
373
367
100%

i
I
238
258
100%

j
J
208
201
100%

*k
*K
9
9
100%

l
L
73
64
100%

*m
*M
14
16
100%

*n
*N
13
12
100%

o
O
51
54
100%

**61 **159
17%
62%
HJLO

66
33%
HL

5
54%

**8
13%

*9
61%

2
15%

11
21%

**3
10%

**261
71%
IJO

**66
26%

106
53%
IO

2
24%

**47
73%
IJO

**2
15%

*10
80%

**17
32%

**24
67%
ABC

45
12%

33
13%

29
14%

2
22%

9
14%

4
25%

1
5%

**25
47%
HIJL

Columns Tested: A,B,C,D,E,F,G - H,I,J,K,L,M,N,O

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 4

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 1/5

Q1 Do you think the government should call a referendum on the border?
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

REFERENDUM VOTE
---------------------------NI
join
Stay
RoI
Would
in outside
not
UK
UK
DK
vote

979
979
100%

a
A
629
614
100%

b
B
203
215
100%

c
C
119
126
100%

*d
*D
28
24
100%

Yes

321
33%

**116
19%

**169
78%
AC

34
27%
a

**2
10%

No

511
52%

**440
72%
BC

**39
18%

**26
21%

**6
25%

Don't know

147
15%

**58
9%
B

**8
3%

**66
52%
AB

**16
66%

Columns Tested: A,B,C,D

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 5

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 2/1

Q2 If there was a referendum on the border would you:
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

GENDER
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

Male Female

AGE
----------------------------------------18-24
years

25-34
years

35-44
years

45-54
years

55-64
years

h
H
206
198
100%

18-34
years

979
979
100%

b
B
498
513
100%

c
C
130
135
100%

d
D
161
170
100%

e
E
164
178
100%

f
F
172
163
100%

Vote to stay in the United
Kingdom

614
63%

286
61%

328
64%

91
67%
E

107
63%
e

**90
51%

93
57%

Vote for Northern Ireland to
join the Republic of Ireland
outside the United Kingdom

215
22%

*118
25%
b

*97
19%

26
19%

33
19%

**54
30%
cdH

*46
28%
H

29
22%

**28
14%

59
19%

**99
29%
IK

Don't know

126
13%

50
11%

75
15%

16
12%

25
15%
h

*32
18%
H

22
13%
h

17
13%

**14
7%

42
14%

24
2%

11
2%

13
3%

2
2%

5
3%

3
1%

3
2%

**8
6%
ef

4
2%

7
2%

81 **152
60%
77%
DEFG

i
I
291
305
100%

35-54
years

a
A
481
466
100%

Would not vote

g
G
146
135
100%

65+
years

AGE
--------------------

j
J
336
341
100%

55+
years

MARITIAL STATUS
-------------------Wid/
Marr
Sep/
ied
Div. Single

SOCIAL GRADE
---------------------------

AB

C1

C2

DE

k
K
352
333
100%

l
L
557
544
100%

m
M
136
138
100%

n
N
286
298
100%

o
O
193
184
100%

p
P
267
244
100%

q
Q
192
212
100%

r
R
327
339
100%

197 **183 **233
65%
54%
70%
J
J

344
63%

95
69%

175
59%

**98
53%

143
59%

*150
70%
Op

223
66%
O

**57
17%

114
21%

26
19%

75
25%

46
25%

56
23%

43
20%

70
21%

53
16%
k

*31
9%

73
13%

12
9%

40
14%

**34
19%
Qr

39
16%
q

*17
8%

36
11%

5
2%

12
4%

13
2%

4
3%

7
2%

5
3%

6
3%

3
1%

10
3%

Columns Tested: A,B - C,D,E,F,G,H - I,J,K - L,M,N - O,P,Q,R

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 6

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 2/2

Q2 If there was a referendum on the border would you:
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

SOCIAL GRADE
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

979
979
100%

ABC1
a
A
460
428
100%

C2DE
b
B
519
551
100%

Empl
oyed
c
C
360
355
100%

Other

ADULTS
--------------------

1

2

3+

CHILDREN U.16
------------None
Any
At
At
Home
Home

CHILDREN U.16
--------------------------None
Three
At
or
Home
One
Two
more

TENURE
-------------------Owner
Pri
Occu Rented
vate
pier
NIHE Renter

d
D
346
344
100%

e
E
225
234
100%

f
F
477
460
100%

g
G
277
284
100%

h
H
646
631
100%

i
I
333
348
100%

j
J
646
631
100%

k
K
154
162
100%

l
L
115
117
100%

m
M
64
68
100%

n
N
658
643
100%

o
O
164
176
100%

p
P
148
150
100%

215 **239
60%
70%
c

149
63%

284
62%

181
64%

*412
65%
i

*202
58%

*412
65%
L

100
62%

*61
52%

40
58%

407
63%

117
67%

86
57%

Vote to stay in the United
Kingdom

614
63%

Vote for Northern Ireland to
join the Republic of Ireland
outside the United Kingdom

215
22%

102
24%

113
21%

75
21%

69
20%

51
22%

94
20%

70
25%

130
21%

85
25%

130
21%

36
22%

31
26%

19
27%

141
22%

30
17%

*43
28%
o

Don't know

126
13%

**73
17%
B

**53
10%

*56
16%
D

**27
8%

29
12%

*70
15%
g

*27
9%

*71
11%

*55
16%
h

*71
11%

24
15%

*23
20%
j

8
12%

79
12%

24
13%

21
14%

9
3%

9
3%

6
3%

12
3%

7
2%

18
3%

6
2%

18
3%

2
1%

2
1%

2
3%

17
3%

5
3%

1
1%

Would not vote

**241 **372
56%
68%
A

WORKING
STATUS
-------------

24
11
13
2%
3%
2%
Columns Tested: A,B - C,D - E,F,G - H,I - J,K,L,M - N,O,P

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 7

(16-051658) PROJECT BORDER

Table 2/3

Q2 If there was a referendum on the border would you:
Base : All Adults aged 18+ years

COMMUNITY
BACKGROUND
-------------

Total
Significance Level: 95%
Significance Level: 99%
UNWEIGHTED
WEIGHTED

979
979
100%

Prote
stant
a
A
477
459
100%

Cath
olic
b
B
373
405
100%

REGION
SUMMARY
------------Grtr
Bel
fast
incld
Rest
BC
NI
c
C
330
380
100%

d
D
649
599
100%

Vote to stay in the United
Kingdom

614
63%

**404 **151
88%
37%
B

**274 **340
72%
57%
D

Vote for Northern Ireland to
join the Republic of Ireland
outside the United Kingdom

215
22%

**22 **176
5%
43%
A

**51 **164
13%
27%
C

Don't know

126
13%

**21
5%

**71
17%
A

49
13%

24
2%

11
2%

8
2%

6
2%

Would not vote

REGION
------------------------------------------------

Bel
fast
City
e
E
104
161
100%

Grtr
Bel
fast

Tyrone
/Ferm
Down Armagh anagh

Derry Antrim

f
F
226
219
100%

g
G
201
159
100%

h
H
33
79
100%

i
I
138
131
100%

j
J
117
124
100%

k
K
160
107
100%

105 **168
65%
77%
i eGHIJ

91
57%

40
50%

**66
51%

*66
53%

AREA
-------------

Urban
l
L
626
618
100%

Rural

ETHNICITY
------------White
UK/
Ire
land

Other

m
M
353
361
100%

n
N
943
942
100%

o
O
34
34
100%

*77
72%
GhIJ

**415 **199
67%
55%
M

**601
64%
O

**12
35%

**115 **100
19%
28%
L

209
22%

6
19%

28
17%

**23
10%

43
27%
Fk

**32
41%
EFK

37
28%
Fk

35
28%
Fk

18
17%

77
13%

28
17%
K

22
10%

20
13%
k

5
7%

*25
19%
fK

20
16%
K

**6
6%

77
13%

49
13%

**110
12%

**14
41%
N

18
3%

0
-

6
3%

4
3%

2
2%

3
2%

3
2%

**6
6%
e

11
2%

13
4%

22
2%

2
5%

Columns Tested: A,B - C,D - E,F,G,H,I,J,K - L,M - N,O

Fieldwork: August 2016

Page 8


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