MORI Leadership Independence September 2016 (PDF)

Page 1

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 1

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All giving a voting intention and (9/10 or 10/10) likelihood to vote (at INDY4)

Total
(Weight
ed)

(x)

Gender

Male Female
(a)
(b)

Employment status
of respondent

AGE

16-24
(c)

25-34
(d)

35-54
(e)

55 or
more
(f)

Work Sector

Working Working
(full
(partNot
time)
time) working Retired
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)

Public
(l)

Tenure
Rent
Owner council
occup Housing Rented
ied
Assoc. private
(m)
(n)
(o)

All

Unweighted Total

831

404

427

86

98

329

312

379

117

196

228

243

643

94

61

831

Weighted Total

779

378

401

118*

114*

283

257

351

78*

165*

169*

293

98

520

142*

103*

831

Yes

370

186
46%

70

73

169

38

96

48%j

49%j

58%xj

132
45%

50
51%

221
43%

79
56%

63

60%ef

124
64%xef 44%

61%m

366
44%

215
54%

48
40%

41
36%

183
52%

40
51%

69
42%

161

48
49%

299

63
44%

40
39%

465
56%

No

184
48%fjm 49%

409
52%di

193
51%

159
56%cd

97
38%
160
62%xcd

123

Private
/Selfempl
-oyed
(k)

Unweigh
ted
Total

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b - x/c/d/e/f - x/g/h/i/j - x/k/l - x/m/n/o - x/p/q
* small base

55
33%
114

67%xghi 55%

57%xo

Page 2

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 2

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All giving a voting intention and (9/10 or 10/10) likelihood to vote (at INDY4)

Total
(Weigh
ted)
(x)

Unweig
hted
Urban/rural Total

Affluence of area
20% zones
1 Most
deprived
(a)

2
(b)

3
(c)

4
(d)

5 Least
deprived
(e)

Urban
(f)

Rural
(g)

Unweighted Total

831

95

126

159

171

193

557

187

831

Weighted Total

779

109*

132*

148*

136

170

534

162*

831

Yes

370
48%

67

409

No

52%af

74
50%

64
47%

71
42%

275

62%xe

67
51%

42
38%

65
49%

74
50%

72
53%

99

259
48%

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b/c/d/e - x/f/g
* small base

58%a

52%x

69
42%

366
44%

94
58%

465
56%

Page 3

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 3

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All giving a voting intention

Total
(Weight
ed)

(x)

Gender

Male Female
(a)
(b)

Employment status
of respondent

AGE

16-24
(c)

25-34
(d)

35-54
(e)

55 or
more
(f)

Work Sector

Working Working
(full
(partNot
time)
time) working Retired
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)

Public
(l)

Tenure
Rent
Owner council
occup Housing Rented
ied
Assoc. private
(m)
(n)
(o)

All

Unweighted Total

914

442

472

100

110

346

352

403

133

225

244

260

685

119

70

914

Weighted Total

923

445

478

134*

138*

308

335

374

97*

196*

239*

321

108

564

222*

119*

914

Yes

411

210
44%

79

88

138

177

52

112

59%xf

64%xef 45%f

100
30%

268
56%

55
41%

50
36%

235

197

No

201
45%fjm 45%

512

244

55%cdio 55%

170
55%d

47%j

70%xcde 53%

135

Private
/Selfempl
-oyed
(k)

Unweigh
ted
Total

53%j

57%xj

46
47%

85
43%

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b - x/c/d/e/f - x/g/h/i/j - x/k/l - x/m/n/o - x/p/q
* small base

58
24%
182

147
46%

54
50%

230
41%

103
47%

69
58%xm

388
42%

174

54
50%

334

119
53%

49
42%

526
58%

76%xghi 54%

59%xo

Page 4

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 4

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All giving a voting intention

Total
(Weigh
ted)
(x)

Unweig
hted
Urban/rural Total

Affluence of area
20% zones
1 Most
deprived
(a)

2
(b)

3
(c)

4
(d)

5 Least
deprived
(e)

Urban
(f)

Rural
(g)

Unweighted Total

914

110

141

174

190

202

607

210

914

Weighted Total

923

144*

163*

166*

164*

190

632

195

914

Yes

411
45%

70
49%

69
42%

79
47%

80
49%

82
43%

512

73
51%

94
58%

87
53%

84
51%

107
57%

No

55%f

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b/c/d/e - x/f/g
* small base

306
48%x

326
52%

74
38%

388
42%

120
62%

526
58%

Page 5

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 5

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All 9/10 or 10/10 likelihood to vote (at INDY4)

Total
(Weight
ed)

Gender

Male Female
(a)
(b)

(x)

Employment status
of respondent

AGE

16-24
(c)

25-34
(d)

35-54
(e)

55 or
more
(f)

Work Sector

Private
Working Working
/Self(full
(partNot
empl
time)
time) working Retired -oyed
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)
(k)

Tenure
Rent
Owner council
occup Housing Rented
ied
Assoc. private
(m)
(n)
(o)

All

Unweighted Total

883

427

456

90

104

357

326

409

124

202

243

262

687

100

62

883

Weighted Total

821

397

424

122*

123*

305

266

375

83*

174*

173

311

106

554

148*

105*

883

Yes

370

186
44%

70

73

169

96

45%j

38
46%

193
49%

215
51%

48
39%

41
34%

183
49%

40
48%

69
40%

41
5%

18
4%

23
5%

4
3%

8
7%

24
6%

5
6%

8
5%

3
2%

2
*

2
*

-

-

-

-

1
1%

*
*

No

184
45%fjm 46%

409
50%d

Undecided
Refused

124
58%xef 60%xef 41%
159
52%d

21
7%
1
*

97
37%
160
60%xcd

8
3%
*
*

*
*

131

Public
(l)

Unweigh
ted
Total

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b - x/c/d/e/f - x/g/h/i/j - x/k/l - x/m/n/o - x/p/q
* small base

55%j

55
32%
114

132
43%

50
47%

221
40%

79
53%

63
60%xm

366
41%

161

48
45%

299

63
43%

40
38%

465
53%

33
6%

5
3%

2
2%

49
6%

1
*

1
1%

-

66%xghi 52%

18
6%
-

8
7%
*
*

54%x

3
*

Page 6

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 6

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All 9/10 or 10/10 likelihood to vote (at INDY4)

Total
(Weigh
ted)
1 Most
deprived
(a)

(x)

Unweig
hted
Urban/rural Total

Affluence of area
20% zones
2
(b)

3
(c)

5 Least
deprived
(e)

4
(d)

Urban
(f)

Rural
(g)

Unweighted Total

883

97

131

171

183

203

583

202

883

Weighted Total

821

111*

138*

156*

147

177

555

175

883

Yes

370
45%

67

No
Undecided
Refused

74
47%

64
44%

71
40%

275

61%xe

67
48%

409
50%

42
38%

65
47%

74
47%

72
49%

99

41
5%

2
2%

6
4%

7
4%

11
8%

-

-

1
1%

-

2
*

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b/c/d/e - x/f/g
* small base

56%a

6
4%
-

69
39%

366
41%

259
47%

94
54%

465
53%

20
4%

12
7%

49
6%

1
*

*
*

3
*

50%x

Page 7

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 7

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All

Total
(Weight
ed)

Gender

108

121

388

376

447

148

147

236

264

292

749

134

73

1000

521

143*

152*

343

355

409

105*

216*

248*

345

123

615

241*

123*

1000

210
40%

79

88

138

100
28%

177

52

112

268
51%

55
39%

50
33%

235

197

9
6%

476

1000

479

244

51%cdil 51%

Undecided
Refused

65

Rent
Owner council
occup Housing Rented
ied
Assoc. private
(m)
(n)
(o)

524

1000

512

Public
(l)

Tenure

35-54
(e)

Weighted Total

No

Working Working
(full
(partNot
time)
time) working Retired
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)

Private
/Selfempl
-oyed
(k)

25-34
(d)

Unweighted Total

201
41%fjm 42%

Work Sector

16-24
(c)

Male Female
(a)
(b)

411

AGE

Unweigh
ted
Total

55 or
more
(f)

(x)

Yes

Employment status
of respondent

6%j

27
6%

38
7%

12
1%

7
1%

6
1%

55%xef 58%xef 40%f

-

170

43%j

50%d

66%xcde 48%

10
7%

31
9%

14
4%

29
7%

3
2%

4
1%

6
2%

6
2%

58
23%

147
43%

54
44%

230
37%

103
43%

69
56%xm

388
39%

174

54
44%

334

119
49%

49
40%

526
53%

43
7%

16
6%

4
3%

75
8%

8
1%

4
1%

1
1%

11
1%

49%j

52%xj

46
43%

85
39%

8
7%

17
8%

6
2%

19
6%

3
1%

3
1%

5
1%

-

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b - x/c/d/e/f - x/g/h/i/j - x/k/l - x/m/n/o - x/p/q
* small base

182

All

73%xghi 50%

14
11%x

2
1%

54%x

Page 8

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 8

INDY1 Should Scotland be an independent country?
Base : All

Total
(Weigh
ted)
(x)

Unweig
hted
Urban/rural Total

Affluence of area
20% zones
1 Most
deprived
(a)

2
(b)

3
(c)

5 Least
deprived
(e)

4
(d)

Urban
(f)

Rural
(g)

Unweighted Total

1000

116

151

195

209

216

654

233

1000

Weighted Total

1000

151*

174*

181

182*

201

677

213

1000

Yes

411
41%

70
47%

69
40%

79
43%

80
44%

82
41%

512
51%

73
49%

94
54%

87
48%

84
46%

107
53%

Undecided

65
6%

4
3%

10
6%

12
7%

15
8%

Refused

12
1%

3
2%

2
1%

3
2%

3
2%

No

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b/c/d/e - x/f/g
* small base

306

74
35%

388
39%

326
48%

120
56%

526
53%

11
5%

36
5%

16
7%

75
8%

1
*

9
1%

3
1%

11
1%

45%x

Page 9

Scottish Public Opinion Monitor - September 2016
Table 9

INDY2. As you may know, the UK voted to leave the European Union in a referendum held in June 2016.
Did this event change how you would vote in a future referendum on Scottish independence or not?
Base : All giving a view yes or no, on whether Scotland should be an independent country

Total
(Weight
ed)

Gender

Male Female
(a)
(b)

(x)

Employment status
of respondent

AGE

16-24
(c)

Private
Working Working
/Self55 or
(full
(partNot
empl
25-34 35-54 more time)
time) working Retired -oyed
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)
(k)

Unweighted Total

914

442

472

100

110

346

352

403

Weighted Total

923

445

478

134*

138*

308

335

374

Yes, the EU referendum
result changed how I
would vote in a future
independence referendum

141

No, the EU referendum
result has not changed
how I would vote in a
future independence
referendum

731

Don't know/unsure

15%f

69
15%

359

79%dil 81%

51
6%m

18
4%

72
15%

29

372
78%

101
75%

34
7%

4
3%

22%f

Work Sector

27
20%

244

260

685

119

70

914

239*

321

108

564

222*

119*

914

77
79%

136
69%

1
1%

20

24
6%

Fieldwork dates : 5th to 11th September 2016
Respondent Type : General public aged 16+
J16-063558-01 Weighted.
Source : Ipsos MORI
*=Less than 0.5 %
Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - x/a/b - x/c/d/e/f - x/g/h/i/j - x/k/l - x/m/n/o - x/p/q
* small base

All

225

92
252
284
294
82%d 85%xd 79%
67%

18
5%

Rent
Owner council
occup Housing Rented
ied
Assoc. private
(m)
(n)
(o)

196*
40
20%

11
4%

Tenure

133

19
20%

14%xe

34
10%

97*

56
15%

19

46
15%

135

Public
(l)

Unweigh
ted
Total

10%j

23
10%

210
88%xi

6
2%

48
15%

25
23%x

90
16%

27
12%

19
16%

138
15%

256
80%

78
73%

452
80%

179
80%

88
74%

749
82%

17
5%

5
4%

22
4%

16
7%

12
10%

27
3%