161107 Seabury analysis of 2016.pdf


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Seabury analysis

Chart 2: Air trade in 2016 saved by perishables

Air trade growth by commodity group, 2015-2016 (Jan-Jul)
Thousand tonnes
Corrected
growth

(+0.3%)

West Coast port strike correction

Correction

121
14
Actual
growth

Corrected
YoY growth:

(-147)
(-1.2%)

-185

-62

Total

High
tech

Auto Machinery Capital
parts
equip.

0.3%

-5.8%

-3.7%

-37

-0.7%

-6

-20

-1.8%

Other

-0.4%

-10

16

21

Fashion Chemicals Raw Consumer
materials goods Perishables

0.7%

2.3%

1.5%

4.0%

7.9%

Even when correcting for effect of West Coast port strike, high-tech and automotive are the key declining industries
(source: Seabury Global Trade Database (September 2016))

operators on some key routes, but the lower operating
costs have done nothing to discourage capacity
growth, despite weak growth in demand, pushing load
factors down once again. Freighter operators, some
of whom may have expanded their reach during the
highs of 2015, are seeking to maintain their advantage
and for some that might mean holding on to capacity
that lower fuel prices make cheaper to run.
All that contributes to a situation in which capacity
continues to outpace demand, further exacerbating
the imbalance between supply and demand while also
hitting yields and load factors. Since 2010, only in 2014
has cargo traffic demand (FTK) outgrown capacity (ATK).
The steady growth in capacity is also due to
increases in belly hold availability, which is outpacing
growth in freighter capacity and looks set to continue
to do so as operators open up new passenger routes
and aircraft order books continue to swell.

Shockwaves
If tough comparisons characterised the first half of
2016, geopolitical and corporate shocks have been the
order of the day in the second half. They may not have
had a concrete impact on the global logistics sector
yet. However, industry operators are waiting with bated
breath to see what effects surprise events including
Britain’s Brexit vote, turmoil in Turkey, the recent
passing away of King Rama IX of Thailand and the
bankruptcy filing of Hanjin Shipping line will have on
their businesses. Not to mention another huge world
event – the results of the US elections in November.

December 2016 − www.airlinecargomanagement.com

Dire economic forecasts post-Brexit have not had an
impact on cargo volumes in the European region but
players are watching with interest, not only for clues on
the economic effects but operationally speaking, on
how transporting goods through London will play out
if and when Britain finally leaves the European Union.
Political unrest in Turkey – a strategic hub for the air
cargo industry because of its east-meets-west location
– could also have a big impact if it continues.
Hanjin’s bankruptcy initially boosted demand for air
and rail transportation but the effects are small so far
and it is too soon to tell if and how long they will last.
Watch this space.

Bearing fruit
But what about the good news? One of the bright
spots in 2016 has been the perishables sector, with
carriers from all four corners of the globe reporting an
increase in demand and looking for ways to meet it.
In the first seven months of the year, perishables
have almost single-handedly offset the decline in
volumes of some of the key high-value commodities –
high-tech and automotive (see Chart 2, above).
Fresh flowers topped the charts with 18,000 tonnes
more transported in the same period, while salmon
exports – mostly from Norway and Chile – rose by
around 15,000 tonnes. The Norway to Vietnam trade
lane for fresh fish showed the strongest growth, up
by 7,000 tonnes in January to July while the country’s
fish exports to the United States were up 5,300 tonnes
in the same period. f

Airline Cargo Management 43