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Equity Research Report 21 November 2016 Ways2Capital .pdf



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TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : - The Indian Benchmark Index, Nifty fell 2.12% for the week ended 11
Nov 2016. Volatility was the order of the week with the panic gap down low of 8076
being made on Wednesday on 9th Nov. Morning as it suffered from the double whammy
when Indian Prime Minister Modi banned Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1000/- currency note to curb
corruption and black money in India which affected sentiments. On that day US President
candidate Mr. Donald Trump won the elections which shocked global financial markets.
The Nifty open in a negative trend down by 12 points or 0.14 per cent at 8284. The
benchmark Index Nifty fell by 163 points from its high of 8287 on Tuesday Trading
Session. The benchmark index is experiencing a "see saw" between the bulls and the
bears as evident from Nifty oscillating between the range of 8100 to 8600, two times in
last 5 trading sessions. This is the result of Dollar outflows from the country because of
the increased probability of a December Rate hike by US FED. The chances of December
rate hike has increased as confirmed by the upside breakout in the 3 month US treasury
yield. Similar phenomena occurred during FED's last rate hike in Nov-Dec 2015 where
Nifty fell by 500 points. September IIP data is lower than the market estimates. The
uncertainty around immediate outcomes of the demonetization introduced by the PM has
contributed in such a highly volatile markets. Nifty saw relentless selling by FIIs in last 5
trading sessions where shares worth Rs. 8632 Crore have been sold in the cash segment.
After a gap up opening , market fell and could not sustain above 8200 levels. This caused
panic and markets fell further by 50 points in the last hour of trading Session. Nifty major
support of 8076 if breached can put pressure and markets can go to the psychological
level of 7920 mad
BANK NIFTY : - The Banking Stocks Index Bank Nifty open in a Negative note on
Tuesday trading Session down by 70 points or 0.36 per cent at 19808. Banking stocks
continue to outperform their peers globally which makes 19500 a major support for Bank
Nifty and an important resistance at 20300. Broader markets were weak with Bank Nifty
selling off almost 1200 points from its recent high of 20300. With about Rs. 4 lakh crore
coming into the banking system within a week after demonetisation, Moody's Investors
Service today cautioned that banks' deposit base will witness a "shar p decline" as and
when the current restriction on cash withdrawals eases. In a major assault on black
money, counterfeit notes and terror financing. The Bank Nifty Chart showing the
Cautiousness ahead. If Bank Nifty breaks above the level of 19900 the Bank Nifty can
rally 400-600 points in near term. The support for Bank Nifty is at 19211-19166-1908018950-18825 and the resistance to the up move is at 19435-19490-19660-19800 levels.
Monday, 21 November 2016

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY

WEEKLY

R2

R1

PP

S1

8321

8163

8084

8005

R2

R1

PP

S1

8324

8124

7924

R1

PP

S1

S2

8913

8250

7587

6261

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

19850

19300

R2

R1

8724
MONTHLY

R2
10239

S2
7847
S2
7524

BANK NIFTY
DAILY

WEEKLY

22041
MONTHLY

19025

PP

20173

R2

18305

PP

21242

21 DAYS

50 DAYS

NIFTY

8440

8545

BANK NIFTY

19437

19399

PARABOLIC SAR

DAILY

WEEKLY

S2
16437

S1

19144

MOVING AVERAGE

18200

S1

19239

R1

25438

18750

17046

100 DAYS

S2
12850

200 DAYS

8489

8320

18994

1830

MONTHLY

NIFTY

8048

8762

7670

BANK NIFTY

18431

18854

15629

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied Bollinger Band
along with Parabolic SAR both the indicators are Leading Indicators, and gives signal of
Buying or Selling. Although the Uses of Bollinger Band differ from traders to traders
Some buy when it break the Middle Band from below side and some buy when it break
Upper Band. We assume that the Breaking the Middle Band Usually a down side is bear
Signal as we can see on the above given chart it has break the middle Band. and it was
not able to sustain the Significance Support level of 8150. and give Gap Down opening
below its Lower Band. From this ;level we may see some Panic zone in Nifty for the
Upcoming week. Nifty may witness the furthre downfall towards 7920 level. The
Significance Levels for Nifty is 8150-8180 is up side and 8050-7980 is down side.

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the
Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR. Both are the leading Indicators and give
Signal on Breakout of Upper or Lower Band. On the Above given chart of Bank Nifty it
has touch the Upper band but not able to break the Resistance level of 19980. From this
level we are Expecting the Bank Nifty may go Up side further to the level of 20260 for
Next week. The Significance levels for Bank Nifty is 19920-20542 Up side and 1930018900 is Down Side.

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

ACC
NAME
ADANI PORTS

EQ
EQ

1333
270

1320
265

1306
260

1293
255

1279
250

AMBUJACEM
ASIAN PAINT
AXISBANK
BAJAJ-AUTO
BANKBARODA
BPCL
BHEL
BHARTIARTL
BOSCH LTD
BHARTI INFRATEL
CIPLA
COALINDIA
CAIRN INDIA LTD
DRREDDY
GAIL
GRASIM
HCLTECH
HDFC
HDFCBANK
HEROMOTOCO
HINDALCO
HINDUNILVR
ICICIBANK
ITC
INDUSIND BANK
INFY
IDEA CELLULAR
KOTAKBANK
LT
M&M
MRF
MARUTI SUZUKI
ONGC
NTPC
RCOM
RELCAPITAL
RELIANCE
RELINFRA
RPOWER
SBIN
SSLT( VEDL)
SUNPHARMA
TATA

EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ

203
936
480
2599
180
652
137
310
19602
310
562
311
245
3318
447
838
787
1268
1245
2988
172
823
272
232
1142
939
72
791
1392
1262
50545
5041
279
165
40
445
997
467
41
282
219
710
305
2173
480
72
423
164
1200
477

200
925
477
2584
177
647
135
306
19424
306
555
309
235
3263
436
829
775
1258
1228
2962
168
812
268
230
1122
928
72
785
1381
1251
49822
4990
276
161
39
440
991
462
41
279
211
699
302
2149
474
71
404
161
1190
461

196
918
474
2565
175
640
134
301
19165
301
548
306
230
3202
431
815
766
1252
1218
2916
166
804
265
228
1109
923
70
779
1371
1236
49356
4939
275
157
38
436
987
457
40
276
206
680
297
2127
468
70
392
154
1175
452

193
907
471
2550
172
635
132
297
18987
297
541
304
220
3147
420
806
754
1242
1201
2890
162
794
261
226
1089
912
69
773
1360
1225
48633
4888
272
153
37
431
981
452
40
273
198
669
294
2103
462
69
373
151
1165
436

189
900
468
2531
170
628
131
292
18728
292
534
301
215
3086
415
792
745
1236
1191
2844
160
785
258
224
1076
907
68
767
1350
1210
48167
4837
271
149
36
427
977
447
39
270
191
650
289
2081
456
68
361
144
1150
427

TCS
MOTORSDVR
TATAMOTORS
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
UNIONBANK
YES BANK
ZEEL
LIMITED

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS
SR.NO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

PREV
CLOSE

SCRIPT NAME

CMP

CORP. BANK LTD.

42

48

INFEABEAM

923

1060

BANK BARODA

160

176

UNION BANK

143

157

DELTA CORP LTD.

106

116

ENGINEERS IND

268

283

POWER FINANCE

118

125

BHARAT FORGE

862

906

SWAN ENERGY

134

141

KRBL LTD.

238

250

CYIENT LTD.

458

480

NTPC

151

159

POWERGRID COR

183

191

CANARA BANK

311

326

PETRONET LNG

360

376

//
% CHANGE

+ 15.52 %
+ 14.85 %
+ 10.25 %
+ 9.17 %
+ 9.11 %
+ 5.82 %
+ 5.75 %
+ 5.10 %
+ 5.09 %
+ 5.07 %
+ 4.91 %
+ 4.85 %
+ 4.83 %
+ 4.62 %
+ 4.27 %

SR.NO

TOP 15 LOOSERS
SCRIPT NAME

PREV CLOSE

CMP

% CHANGE

1

TATA STEEL

426

385

- 9.71 %

2

AMBUJA CEMENT 219

198

- 9.45 %

3

INDUSIND BANK

1,192

1,101

- 8.94 %

4

ZEEL

482

446

-7.36 %

5

TATA MOTORS

504

471

- 7.11 %

6

ULTRATECH CEM 3634

3392

- 6.64 %

7

ACC LIMITED

1400

1309

- 6.48 %

8

AURO PHARMA

772

722

- 6.45 %

9

ITC LIMITED

242

227

- 6.22 %

10

ASIAN PAINTS

962

908

- 5.62 %

11

ADANI PORTS

276

261

- 5.37 %

12

COAL INDIA LTD. 324

306

-5.35 %

13

AXIS BANK LTD.

498

473

- 5.07 %

14

HDFC BANK

1275

1211

- 5.05 %

15

KOTAK BANK

815

779

- 4.46 %

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )
NSE FUTURE
NSE FUTURE : SELL VOLTAS FUTURE BELOW 290 TGT 280 SL 295
NSE FUTURE : SELL YESBANK FUTURE BELOW 1150 TGT 1110 SL 1170
NSE FUTURE : BUY TORNTPHARMA FUTURE ABOVE 1300 TGT 1350 SL 1280
NSE CASH
NSE CASH : BUY AXISBANK NSE CASH ABOVE 483 TGT 515 SL 468.
NSE CASH : BUY HINDUNILVR NSE CASH ABOVE 870 TGT 930 SL 845.
NSE CASH : BUY ONGC NSE CASH ABOVE 272 TGT 292 SL 264.

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
Demonetization to have temporary impact on MFIs, borrowers' - The Center's
decision to demonetize Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 currency notes may impact micro-finance
institutions and their borrowers on short term, with the latter likely to face high overdoes.
The Narendra Modi-led government on November 8 had announced demonetizing notes
of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 in a clampdown on black money and counterfeit notes. "(Post
demonetization) we expect MFI borrowers to face cash flow mismatch, thereby
prioritizing their expenses. As a result, MFIs could witness high over-dues, indicating
lack of diversification in MFIs' borrower profiles," India Ratings and Research associate
director Jindal Haria told reporters. The rating agency today released a report on microfinance sector. He expects MFI borrowers to face cash flow mismatch, thereby
reprioritising their expenses which will result into over-dues for MFIs. The report said
demonetization suggests higher core capital requirements for MFIs to withstand systemic
stress. "Most MFIs have liquidity in the form of steady-state unencumbered cash and
unavailed bank lines to meet debt obligations for 30-60 days in the event of business
disruption," the report said.
FM Jaitley rules out demonetization rollback, says no plans for Rs 1,000 note at the
moment - The government tightened over-the-counter currency exchange rules for
invalid Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes, cutting the amount by more than half to ensure that
more people get cash. It also provided relief to the farm sector and households with
weddings. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley ruled out a rollback of demonetization, as
demanded by some political parties, saying the government will "stick to it". The minister
rejected calls for a joint parliamentary committee review of the decision. He also said the
Rs. 1,000 note will not be reintroduced for now. The one-time exchange facility limit has
been lowered to Rs. 2,000 from Rs. 4,500, effective Friday. The weekly cap of Rs. 24,000
on withdrawals from bank accounts remains. Farmers and mandi traders can get up to Rs.
50,000 in cash a week and families celebrating weddings can seek Rs. 2.5 lakh from their
bank accounts. This is the second revision of the exchange limit, which was set at Rs.
4,000 initially and increased to Rs. 4,500 on November 14 to facilitate the issue of new
Rs. 500 notes. "We find that many people are not able to reach the counter and the same
persons are visiting the counter multiple times and other people are not getting the
benefits," Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das told reporters, while also
clarifying that this did not indicate a shortage of funds.

RBI could use proceeds to retire part of govt debt - Economists say the Reserve Bank
of India could help the government settle a part of its debt bilaterally from the mop-up
from demonetization, without going to the market entirely. Since Rs. 2-3 lakh crore of
unaccounted money would not find its way back into the system, there would be a
permanent reduction in currency notes issued by the RBI. This could lead to a decline the
value of its liabilities. In absence of concomitant reduction in value of RBI assets, it
would result in a revaluation gain for RBI mainly through 'Rupee securities' held on its
books. "This could be used by government to retire a part of its debt held on the books of
RBI," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist, Yes Bank. "We estimate on the basis of a Rs
2 lakh crore worth of decline in liabilities, the interest expenses of the government would
alone come down by Rs 16,000-17,000 crore." This is one of the options for the RBI
besides transferring the gains to its profit and loss account and re-transfers it to the
government as dividend. The legalities, however, remain uncertain in order to adjust its
balance sheet for lower liabilities.
Exports up 9.59 per cent at $ 23.5 billion in October; trade deficit at $ 10 billion India’s merchandise exports sharply rose in October with 18 of the 30 export sectors
registering a growth in outward shipments. Showing a 9.6% rise, exports in the month
were $ 23.5 billion compared with $ 21.4 billion in the year ago period while imports rose
8.1% to $ 33.7 billion from $ 31.1 billion in the year ago period leaving a trade deficit of
$ 10.1 billion. “Overall the trade balance has improved,” said the commerce and industry
ministry in a release. Gold imports more than doubled to $ 3.5 billion from $ 1.7 billion
in the year ago period. As for services trade, data released by RBI showed exports worth
$ 13.7 billion and imports of $ 8.3 billion in September. India’s bullish exports have
come at a time when Chinese exports fell for the seventh consecutive month in October
due to weak demand.
Advance GDP estimates will be released on Jan 7 - The Central Statistics Office will
release the first advance estimates of economic growth for the current financial year on
January 7 to help the government prepare the Budget, which has been brought forward by
about a month to February 1. The advance gross domestic product numbers are needed to
arrive at estimates of the fiscal deficit and revenue for the next year, assuming a
reasonable growth rate. Previously, the data was released around February 7, almost three
weeks before the Budget. "It has been decided to release first advance estimates of GDP
on January 7 or previous working day if January 7 is a holiday, two months and 24 days
before the end of a financial year," the statistics office said. The office will now squeeze
in the second advance estimates for the current financial year along with the third-quarter
data on February 28 or on the last working day of February. Last month, chief statistician


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