Commodity Research Report 26 December 2016 Ways2Capital .pdf
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - . The gold price is expected to move much higher in 2017, Specifically, There is going to be a
“surprising gold price increase” that could come within striking distance of its historic highs later in
the year, based on monetary policies. This Month, bulls of precious metals have ridden a roller-coaster
of hope followed by disillusionment. There will be contributing factors for the yellow metal to see a
spike: importantly, one thing that will be a driving force is demand from China and India. This week
the Fed already hinted at inflation rising, but what’s been seen so far is trivial compared to what’s
coming if even half of Trump’s campaign proposals make it to reality. Inflation is very damaging to
stock markets, and thus very bullish for gold investment demand. The Significance Levels for neat
week is 26850-26586 is Down side and 27114-27378 is Upside. The Precious Metal is Expected to
trade in the Range of 26740-28215 in Next Trading Week on Bullish Side.
GOLD CHART -
GOLD CHART - The statistical and technical indicators suggest that gold was getting overbought and
that it was due for a correction. one key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence,
which is also known as MACD, and on a weekly basis the MACD and RSI are indicating that the next
move for gold will be up. The gold now look moving toward the 28000 level in near Term. The
Important Levels for Gold as per Technical Indicators is 26850 is Down side and 27120 is Upside.
SILVER - Detail of Chart -
On the Above Given Weekly Chart of Silver is preserved the psychological support 38098. MCX
silver makes down channel pattern on weekly chart last week which given the Strong Signall for entire
surge of below near resistance Rs.40707 and Rs.41208 may prove gammon for short term when above
target have found up to 41208 by crossing Rs.40707 and giving close on which. Now in this Week The
Technical Indicators like - RSI And Moving Average convergence/divergence trading near oversold
phase consonantly on Chart given that; you should not stand into the recession move around support.
The Significance Levels for Silver is 38147-36905 is Down Side and 39369-40631 is Up side silver is
Expected to trade in Bullish trend for next trading Week.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
EXPIRY DATE R4
03-MARCH-2016 40631 40010
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
Monday, 26 December 2016
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
16802 16653 16452 16102
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
16968 16487 16118 15268
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold demand in India remained subdued this week despite a sharp fall in prices to over 10-1/2 month
lows as a severe cash crunch and holidays kept buyers away from the market, while premiums in
China fell from near 3-year highs touched in the prior week. Dealers in India, the world's No.2
consumer of the metal, were offering a discount of up to $ 2 an ounce this week over official domestic
prices that include a 10 percent import tax. In the previous week, they were offering a discount of up to
$ 3. "People do not have cash to buy gold in rural areas, while urban consumers are in holiday mood.
They are not interested in buying gold. Last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped 500- and
1,000-rupee banknotes, or 86 percent of the value of cash in circulation, as part of a crackdown on
corruption, tax evasion and militant financing. move hit wedding season demandd. Indian jewellers
rely on the wedding season for an uptick in demand during winter after the end of key festivals such as
Diwali, but this year wedding demand has fallen sharply due to the cash crunch. Local gold prices
MAUc1 fell to 26,862 rupees per 10 gram on Thursday, the lowest since Feb. 2, 2016.
Spot gold XAU= , which hit a 10-1/2-month low of $ 1,122.35 last week under pressure from a
stronger dollar after a hawkish rate hike forecast from the Federal Reserve, was on track for a seventh
straight weekly decline. "Many investors have lost interest in gold over the last few years since it gave
negative returns. They also fear the government may bring new rules to limit gold holding," The
government had clarified earlier this month that "there is no limit on holding of gold jewellery or
ornaments." Gold premiums in top consumer China fell from their near three-year highs hit last week.
Premiums in China against the international benchmark XAU= came down to $28-$29, traders said.
They rose to over $40 an ounce in the week to Dec. 16, the highest since January 2014, according to
Thomson Reuters data. Premiums rose on fears of limited supply of the metal, traders said.
"There is some buying, but not very strong. People in China or Hong Kong do not buy for Christmas,
but only for the Chinese New Year and we have three more weeks to go for that. In Hong Kong and
Singapore, sellers offered premiums of up to $1.50 an ounce. Discounts in Tokyo remained at 50 cents.
Gold prices edged slightly higher in abbreviated trade ahead of the holiday weekend on Friday, but the
precious metal still posted its seventh straight weekly decline as expectations for higher U.S. interest
rates in the months ahead weighed. Gold for February delivery on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange tacked on $ 2.90, or 0.26%, to end the week at $ 1,133.60 a troy ounce, not
far from an 11-month low of $1,124.30 touched on December 15. For the week, gold futures slumped
$ 3.80, or 0.33%, the seventh straight week of declines, its longest weekly losing streak in more than
12 years. Prices of the yellow metal have fallen sharply since Donald Trump was elected president as a
soaring U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and a record-breaking rally on Wall Street have damped its
appeal. The greenback lost some steam on Friday, slipping from its 14-year-high against a basket of
currencies as investors took profits ahead of the end of the year.
The dollar index dipped 0.1% to settle at 103.00 by close of trade Friday. The index climbed to 103.62
on Tuesday, the strongest level since December 2002. Market analysts warned that the outlook for gold
remains cloudy in the near-term, given expectations for higher U.S. interest rates in the months ahead.
The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in a year earlier this month and projected
three more increases in 2017. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is
priced. Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is
denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise.
Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery shed 11.2 cents, or 0.7%, on Friday to settle at
$15.75 a troy ounce, within sight of an eight-month low of $15.67 logged on Tuesday. On the week,
silver lost 29.6 cents, or 2.8%. Meanwhile, platinum dropped 1.55%, to $893.20, marking a weekly
decline of 3.7%, while palladium slumped 0.3% to $654.85 an ounce, notching a weekly loss of 6.1%.
Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for March delivery dipped 2.0 cents, or 0.82%, on Friday to end at
$2.479 a pound, booking a weekly slide of around 3.5%. In the week ahead, trading volumes are
expected to remain light due to the Christmas holiday and as many traders already closed books before
the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing the volatility. The U.S. is to release
reports on consumer confidence, pending home sales and jobless claims, as traders look for further
indications on the strength of the economy and hints on the future path of monetary policy.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events
likely to affect the markets.
Monday, December 26
Stock markets in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, the U.K., Switzerland, Canada and the U.S. will
remain closed, to make up for Christmas Day falling on a Sunday.
All floor trading for precious and base metals options will be shut for the Christmas holiday.
Tuesday, December 27
Markets in the U.K. and Canada will remain closed for Boxing Day.
The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence.
Wednesday, December 28
The U.S. is to release data on pending home sales.
Thursday, December 29
The U.S. is to produce data on third quarter economic growth, initial jobless claims, durable goods
orders and personal spending.
Friday, December 30
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on new home sales and consumer sentiment.
Gold edged higher on Friday as the dollar retreated from this week's 14-year high and some buyers
were tempted to take advantage of prices near a 10-month low after six weeks of decline. Volumes
were thin as traders prepared for a long weekend. All floor trading for precious and base metals options
will be shut on Monday, Dec. 26 for the Christmas holiday. has fallen more than $200 an ounce from
the peak it hit after Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election victory on Nov. 8, reaching a low last
week of $ 1,122.35, as his win sparked a dollar rally and drove U.S. Treasury yields higher. It is down
14 percent this quarter, paring its gain for the year to 6.7 percent. Gold posted its biggest quarterly
increase in 30 years between January and March. Spot gold was up 0.32 pct at $ 1,132.24 per ounce by
1:50 p.m. EST , but still set to finish the week lower for a sixth straight week. The most-active U.S.
gold GCcv1 futures for February delivery settled up $2.90, or 0.26 percent, at $ 1,133.60 per ounce.
"The market is trying to base right now," said Eli Tesfaye, senior market strategist for brokerage RJO
Futures in Chicago. "Unless there are geopolitical concerns, the path of least resistance is to the
The dollar eased against a basket of currencies, off highs hit after this month's Federal Reserve policy
meeting. The bank surprised markets by indicating interest rates could rise more quickly than expected
next year. Rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while
boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. "There is a risk that the prices of gold and silver might fall
further in the short term as the Fed hikes rates more aggressively in response to some of Trump's more
inflationary policies," Capital Economics said in a weekly note. Buying in India remained subdued this
week despite a sharp fall in prices as a severe cash crunch and holidays kept purchasers away from the
market, while premiums in China fell from near three-year highs touched in the prior week. Investors
also showed little appetite for gold. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund
have fallen more than 12 percent since November. Silver XAG= was down 0.37 pct at $15.721 per
ounce, while platinum XPT= was down 1.27 pct at $890.49 and palladium was up 0.35 pct at $ 657.22.
Gold held little changed early on Friday and was on track for a seventh straight weekly decline amid
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will opt for more interest rate hikes in 2017.