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Commodity Research Report 09 January 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf


Original filename: Commodity Research Report 09 January 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold

prices inching upside in recent days over 4% from its all time low of $1122.5 in Comex.

We can expect the short term rally to continue till its psychological resistance at $ 1200. The medium
term trend remains bearish and we can expect fresh selling could come around $ 1200 for a near target
till $ 1150 to $ 1130 levels; even we are expecting prices to target $ 1100 to $ 1080 in coming days.
Gold prices in MCX with its short term positive trend from Rs.27000 could head towards Rs.28200 to
Rs.28400. The medium term trend could remain bearish for a target up to Rs.27500 to Rs.27000 levels
in coming days. The Significance levels for Next week is 27977-28175 is Up side and 27779-27581 is
Down Side.
GOLD CHART -

Chart Detail The statistical and technical indicators suggest that gold was going ahead and that it was due for a
correction. one key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence, which is also known
as MACD, and on a weekly basis the MACD and Parabolic SAR are indicating that the next move for
gold will be up. MCX gold is getting support at 27813 and below same could see a test of 27740 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 27971, a move above could see prices testing 28056.
.
Monday, 09 January 2017

SILVER Silver prices in COMEX look bearish and next sort of selling could come shortly, prices rebounded
from $ 15.7 and made a high of $ 16.72 on Thursday. The trend remains bearish till $ 16 to $ 15.5
shortly. MCX Silver holding steady for short term, but the trend could remain bearish. We can expect
fresh selling could come around Rs.40600 to Rs.41000 till Rs.39000 to Rs.38000 levels. The Crucial
levels of Silver for Next week is 40451-40767 is up side and 40135-39819 is Down side.

Detail of Chart -On the Above Given Daily Chart of Silver is preserved the psychological support
39200. MCX Silver is getting support at 39850 and below same could see a test of 39359 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 40685, a move above could see prices testing 41029.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

118

117

116

115

115

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

400

394

388

385

382

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3867

3802

3737

3710

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

28372

28214

28056

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

148

145

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

247

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

SILVER

S2

S3

S4

114

113

112

379

376

370

364

3672

3645

3607

3542

3477

27972

27898

27814

27740

27582

27424

142

141

139

138

136

133

130

239

231

228

223

220

215

207

199

728

718

708

704

698

694

688

678

668

03-MARCH-2016

42699

41864

41029

40686

39851

39359

38524

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

189

185

181

179

173

169

40194

S1
114

177

175

37689
165

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

121

117

117

117

115

115

113

111

109

419

407

395

391

383

379

371

359

347

4355

4127

3899

3791

3671

3563

3443

3215

2987

29503

28921

28339

28113

27757

27531

27175

26593

26011

COPPER
CRUDE OIL
GOLD

28-FEB-2016
19-OCT-2016
03-FEB-2016

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

157

151

145

142

139

136

133

127

121

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

348

309

270

247

231

208

192

153

114

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

767

743

719

709

695

685

671

647

623

43351

41680

41011

40009

39340

38338

36667

34996

190

183

180

176

173

169

162

155

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45022
30-DEC-2016

197

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

68.62

68.52

68.40

68.38

68.21

68.12

68.02

67.93

67.87

EURINR

26-OCT2016

75.08

74.82

73.88

71.52

71.28

70.82

69.25

68.18

67.20

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

88.04

86.40

84.16

82.25

80.18

79.02

77.03

75.98

73.16

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

61.56

60.58

58.34

57.12

56.89

56.25

55.95

55.58

55..25

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

68.80

68.73

68.65

68.56

68.47

68.42

68.28

68.12

67.90

EURINR

26-OCT2016

79.78

75.10

73.54

71.70

69.82

68.05

67.12

66.80

64.48

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

95.35

91.58

88.44

85.80

82.18

81.60

79.25

77.36

75.05

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

68.58

65.52

63.32

60.18

59.85

57.38

55.80

53.50

51.38

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

738

732

728

724

720

716

712

708

704

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3108

3086

3078

3056

3048

3038

3025

3009

2989

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4608

4536

4503

4468

4395

4365

4307

4286

4265

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

18803 18638

18282

18085

17985 17758 17625

17428

17168

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3466

3380

3304

3286

3206

3164

3116

3084

3025

TMC

20-APR-2016

7083

7003

6952

6906

6847

6799

6756

6688

6625

DATE

R4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

768

748

735

728

719

712

703

695

682

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3156

3122

3108

3098

3085

3035

2986

2978

2909

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4860

4681

4502

4425

4323

4246

4144

3965

3786

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

21252

20218

19845

19025 18756 17931 16547

16002

15985

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3678

3585

3489

3458

3372

3348

3284

3194

3085

TMC

20-APR-2016

7258

7186

7005

6985

6815

6794

6704

6641

6524

DATE

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices were little changed early on Monday, after dipping from a one-month high last week on
expectations of further interest rate hikes, with investor attention on more views from the U.S. Federal
Reserve.
FUNDAMENTALS
➢ Spot gold XAU= was steady at $1,173.06 an ounce by 0047 GMT. The metal rose nearly two percent
last week, its biggest weekly percentage rise since early November.
➢ U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were unchanged at $1,173.80 per ounce.
➢ The dollar index .DXY , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, edged 0.1
percent higher at 102.27.
➢ U.S. employment increased less than expected in December but a rebound in wages pointed to
sustained labor market momentum that sets up the economy for stronger growth and further interest rate
increases this year. Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said on Friday the central bank
could raise interest rates three times this year, faster than he had expected just a few months ago and in
line with the majority of his colleagues. The outlook for U.S. rates may become a little clearer when
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting with educators on Thursday.
➢ Two regional Fed presidents will speak later Monday, and there are no less than five speeches lined up
for Thursday. The main economic release of the week is not until Friday, when retail sales figures for
December are out.
Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish position in COMEX gold contracts for the eighth
straight week in the week to Jan. 3, taking it to the smallest in 11 months, U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Gold demand in Asia gathered some steam last week on
wedding season purchases in India, with prices swinging to a premium there for the first time in over a
month, and traders expecting demand to strengthen due to the upcoming Chinese New Year.
Gold prices fell on Friday, retreating from the previous sessions one-month highs as the dollar
strengthened against a currency basket after U.S. jobs data showed a slowdown in hiring in December but
a pickup in wage growth. Gold for February delivery settled down 0.73% at $ 1,172.65 on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal was still 1.97% higher for the week, its best
weekly performance in two months, helped by a broad weakening of the dollar earlier in the week. The
Labor Department said Friday the U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in December, falling short of
economists forecast for jobs growth of 178,000. The report also showed that the annual rate of wage

growth rose to 2.9% in December from a year earlier, the strongest since 2009. The employment data
indicated that the economy is improving enough for the Federal Reserve to keep pushing up interest rates.
The Fed has indicated that three quarter-percentage-point interest rate increases are on the cards for 2017.
Higher rates boost the dollar by making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The U.S.
dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, jumped 0.77% to 102.17 late Friday. The index had fallen in the previous two sessions after
touching a 14-year high of 103.82 on Tuesday. Both a strong dollar and higher interest rates are typically
bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when
borrowing costs rise. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, palladium ended at a five-week high of $
758.35 late Friday. The metal, which is used in vehicle catalysts to clean exhaust emissions ended the
week with gains of around 11% after data showing U.S. sales of new cars and trucks hit a record high in
2016. Silver was down 0.73% at $ 16.52 a troy ounce late Friday, after touching highs of $ 16.76 in the
previous session, its highest since December 15. Copper was up 0.18% at $2.54 a pound and ended the
week up 1.6%.
Platinum was down 0.32% on the day at $972.85 an ounce but was up almost 7.5% for the week. The
metal touched its highest since November 11 at $979.75 on Thursday. In the week ahead, investors will be
looking ahead to U.S. economic reports, particularly Friday’s retail sales figures for December.
Investors will also be watching an appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday and speeches by a
handful of other Fed officials during the week.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely
to affect the markets.
Monday, January 9
Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.
Australia is to release data on building approvals.
The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation.
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart are to speak.

Tuesday, January 10
Australia is to report on retail sales.
China is to release data on consumer and producer prices.
Canada is to publish figures on building permits.

Also Wednesday, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is scheduled to hold his first post-election news
conference, which investors will be watching for any hints about the possible direction of economic
policy.

Wednesday, January 11
The U.K. is to release a report on manufacturing and industrial production as well as trade data.
Thursday, January 12
The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting.
Canada is to report on new house price inflation.
The U.S. is to release the weekly jobless claims report along with data on import prices.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington.
Also Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Atlanta
Fed's Dennis Lockhart, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan are
due to speak.

Friday, January 13
China is to report on the trade balance.
The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on retail sales, producer prices and a preliminary look at
consumer sentiment.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is also to speak.Gold slipped on Friday from the previous day's
one-month high as the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, lifted by U.S. non-farm payrolls
data that showed a slowing in hiring last month but an increase in wages. The report supported the view
that the U.S. Federal Reserve will press ahead with interest rate increases this year, analysts said. Spot
gold XAU= was down 0.4 percent at $1,175.90 an ounce by 1526 GMT. The metal was still 2.2 percent
higher this week, its biggest weekly rise in two months, helped by a broad weakening of the dollar earlier
in the week and a retreat in U.S. bond yields. But with markets uncertain ahead of Donald Trump's
inauguration on Jan. 20, investors turned cautious after gold reached its highest since Dec. 5 at $ 1,184.90
on Thursday. "Any profit that can be booked at this early stage is welcomed by most, so that's why we're
seeing a scaling back a bit," U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were down 0.4 percent at $ 1,176.30. Non-farm
payroll data showed that the United States added 156,000 jobs in December, less than expected, but a
rebound in wages pointed to sustained labour market momentum, stronger growth and further interest rate
rises from the Fed. data "doesn't change much in terms of the interest rate outlook. The Fed has indicated
that it will press ahead with further rate hikes this year after its second in a decade last month. Higher


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