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Commodity Research Report 16 January 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



Original filename: Commodity Research Report 16 January 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
Author: w2c

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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold prices holding steady near its psychological resistance at $ 1200, trading up over 2% this
week. The medium term trend for Gold remains positive as the trend continuous from $ 1130 om
COMEX; we can expect Gold to hover around its important resistance at $1200 and could turn bearish
below $ 1180. Gold in MCX Futures holding steady above Rs.28300 and could trade little upside above
Rs.28400 to test Rs.28550 to Rs.28600. Prices could turn negative on a hold below Rs.28200 levels.
GOLD CHART -

Chart Detail The statistical and technical indicators suggest that gold was going ahead and that it was due for a
correction. one key indicator is the moving average of convergence/divergence, which is also known
as MACD Along with Bollinger BAND, and on a weekly basis the MACD and Bollinger Band are
indicating that the next move for gold will be up. MCX gold is getting support at 27980 and below
same could see a test of 27560 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28980-29020, a move
above could see prices testing 29562.
.
Monday, 16 January 2017

SILVER Silver prices trading in sideways move from $16.5 to $17. Silver the long term trend remains bearish
and we can expect fresh selling any time for a deeper correction till $15.5 to $15 levels in coming
days. Silver in MCX trading in a range of Rs.40600 to Rs.41100, the long term trend for this
commodity remains bearish and next fall could come below Rs.40500 till Rs.40000 to Rs.39000 in
coming days.

Detail of Chart -On the Above Given Daily Chart of Silver is preserved the psychological support
40100. MCX Silver is getting support at 39950 and below same could see a test of 39550-39600 level,
And resistance is now likely to be seen at 41258-41309, a move above could see prices testing 41890.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

128

126

124

124

122

424

417

410

407

403

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

S1

S2

S3

S4

120

118

116

400

396

389

382

122

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3783

3720

3657

3621

3594

3558

3531

3468

3405

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

28953

28753

28553

28467

28353

28267

28153

27953

27753

175

168

161

158

154

151

147

140

133

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

252

245

238

236

231

229

224

217

210

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

781

755

729

719

703

693

677

651

625

SILVER

03-MARCH-2016

44100

43003

41906

41397

40809

40300

39712

38615

ZINC

30-DEC-2016

202

197

192

191

187

186

182

177

37518
172

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

129

125

121

118

117

114

113

109

105

472

447

422

413

397

388

372

347

322

4167

3971

3775

3681

3579

3485

3383

3187

2991

29503

28921

28339

28113

27757

27531

27175

26593

26011

COPPER
CRUDE OIL
GOLD

28-FEB-2016
19-OCT-2016
03-FEB-2016

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

157

151

145

142

139

136

133

127

121

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

348

309

270

247

231

208

192

153

114

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

767

743

719

709

695

685

671

647

623

43351

41680

41011

40009 39340

38338

36667

34996

216

199

194

182

165

148

131

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45022
30-DEC-2016

233

177

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

68.82

68.68

68.50

68.46

68.40

68.34

68.22

68.00

67.92

EURINR

26-OCT2016

77.60

75.20

73.08

72.00

69.82

69.26

69.03

68.78

68.02

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

90.86

88.25

86.17

84.18

82.28

80.45

78.21

76.04

74.52

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

63.65

62.78

61.63

61.46

61.36

60.81

60.58

60.38

60.02

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

69.80

69.25

68.56

68.08

67.94

67.42

67.20

67.00

66.68

EURINR

26-OCT2016

81.34

79.24

77.06

76.25

74.05

72.89

70.45

68.54

66.42

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

98.53

98.56

91.85

87.22

83.45

80.15

78.28

76.17

73.95

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

69.52

68.52

68.28

67.18

65.86

64.26

62.20

60.89

59.26

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

742

738

736

734

730

728

726

724

720

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3158

3108

3089

3076

3056

3052

3024

3012

2998

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4712

4688

4658

4636

4603

4555

4525

4503

4456

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

18618 18425

18282

18085

17952 17658 17456

17289

17107

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3546

3520

3498

3460

3405

3374

3319

3291

3267

TMC

20-APR-2016

7183

7124

7058

7002

6958

6867

6822

6701

6684

DATE

R4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

770

768

766

764

762

760

758

756

754

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3203

3185

3126

3104

3068

3027

2945

2915

2896

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

4920

4896

4835

4708

4685

4612

4533

4508

4468

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

22388

21912

20102

19865 19465 18862 18385

17927

17258

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3781

3686

3525

3492

3424

3389

3318

3296

3254

TMC

20-APR-2016

7384

7216

7109

7058

6963

6848

6801

6754

6621

DATE

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices started the week higher on Monday, rallying to the strongest level in around two months as
investors looked ahead to a highly-anticipated speech by British Prime Minister Theresa May and U.S.
President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration later this week. Gold for February delivery on the Comex
division of the New York Mercantile Exchange touched a session peak of $1,208.70 a troy ounce, a level
not seen since November 23. It was last at $1,202.95 by 3:10AM ET (08:10GMT), up almost $7.00, or
0.6%. The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the dollar to a three-month low following media
reports that suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's government was prepared to make a "clean and
hard" exit from the European Union, ahead of her speech Tuesday. A report in The Sunday Times
newspaper said that May was willing to quit the European Union's single market in order to regain control
of Britain's borders. May has previously stated she will trigger Article 50, which starts the formal
withdrawal process from the European Union, by the end of March, but so far has given few details about
what deal she will be seeking. Meanwhile, global financial markets will continue to focus on U.S.
President-Elect Donald Trump as he takes the Oath of Office and offers his inaugural address on Friday.
Investors will welcome any detail he may give on his promises of tax reform, infrastructure spending and
deregulation, as well as insight regarding policies on China and the domestic economy. President-elect
Trump has been credited with being a major catalyst behind the impressive rally in U.S. shares and the
dollar since election day, although he has yet to outline his economic policies in detail. Markets were
disappointed last week after Trump failed to offer details on his promises to boost fiscal spending and cut
taxes at a highly-anticipated news conference. The precious metal has been well-supported in recent
sessions amid uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s pace of interest rate hikes this year. The Fed
had indicated in December that at least three rate increases were in the offing for 2017, according to a
forecast of interest rates from members of the central bank, known as the dot-plot. However, traders
remained unconvinced. Instead, markets are pricing in just two rate hikes during the course of this year,
according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool. A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as
positive for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, and negative for the dollar. Also on the Comex, silver
futures for March delivery was up 8.3 cents, or 0.5%, at $16.84 a troy ounce during morning hours in
London.
Meanwhile, platinum tacked on 0.1% to $986.40, while palladium advanced 0.4% to $751.75 an ounce.
Elsewhere in metals trading, copper futures dipped 0.4 cents, or 0.2%, to $2.686 a pound.
Gold ended lower on Friday as investors took profits after prices hit a seven-week peak in the previous
session, but still notched up a third consecutive weekly gain.
Gold for February delivery settled down 0.21% at $1,195.3 on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange. The metal was still 1.98% higher for the week, helped by a broad weakening of the
U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index posted its largest weekly decline since late October, shedding 1.0% as
optimism cooled over President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policy proposals.
The drop in the dollar came after Trump disappointed traders who had been hoping he would address
economic and fiscal policies in his first formal news conference as U.S. president-elect. The dollar had
rallied to 14-year peaks earlier this month on expectations that Trump's policies would spur growth and
inflation and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly. Trump will officially take
office on January 20. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $16.83 a troy ounce late Friday,
and ended the week with gains of 1.69%. Copper was up 1.29% at $2.70 a pound and ended the week up
6.62% on hopes for increased demand from top consumer China. Platinum was up 0.31% on the day at
$987.75 an ounce and was up 1.53% for the week. In the week ahead, financial markets will continue to
focus on U.S. President-elect Trump ahead of his inauguration on Friday. Investors will be looking ahead
to Thursday’ policy announcement by the European Central bank and Chinese data on fourth quarter
growth, due for release on Friday. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these
and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 16

U.S. financial markets will be closed for Martin Luther King Day.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at an event in London.

Tuesday, January 17

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
The U.K. is to release data on inflation.
The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.

New York Fed President William Dudley is to speak at an event in New York and the U.S. is also to
release the Empire state manufacturing index.

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is due to speak about starting proceedings for Britain’s exit from the
European Union.

Wednesday, January 18

The U.K. is to publish its monthly jobs report.
The euro zone is to release revised data on inflation.
The U.S. is to publish figures on inflation and industrial production. Later in the day,
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in San Francisco.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and hold a press conference to
discuss the economic outlook.

Thursday, January 19

Australia is to publish its monthly employment report.
The ECB is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a
press conference with President Mario Draghi.
Canada is to report on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.
The U.S. is to release a series of reports, including data on building permits, housing starts, initial jobless
claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Stanford.

Friday, January 20
China is to release data on fourth quarter growth as well as figures on industrial production.
The U.K. is to release data on retail sales. Canada is to round up the week with data on retail
sales.Physical gold sales eased in Asia this week as steadily higher prices kept buyers on the sidelines and
premiums remained mostly unchanged across the continent. In India, the world's second-largest consumer
of the metal, higher prices prompted retail buyers to postpone purchases for wedding season. "The
volatility in prices is confusing buyers. Many buyers are waiting for prices to stabilise," said Harmesh
Arora, a Mumbai-based bullion dealer. In local market gold prices MAUc1 were trading around 28,365


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