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Commodity Research Report 13 february 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



Original filename: Commodity Research Report 13 february 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold prices traded lower on last week on the account of profit booking at higher levels while
strengthening dollar index will further lower gold prices in the near term. The Gold is on an upward
trajectory as investors look for a safe haven in an increasingly uncertain world. Despite the strength of
the dollar. Gold typically rises when there is fear and uncertainty in stock markets. But the stock market
has not been following its typical relationship to gold by selling off. Since Trump’s presidential win in
early November. We have had a bit of a triple-top development in gold over the last three days, just
below 29525-29680 – that is the level that’s going to offer some resistance. “We still think that the gold
market is targeting 30900-31000 level to the upside so long as we stay above 28890-29050 support.”
The precious Metal is Expected to trade in positive note in this week the crucial levels for Gold is 29580
is up side and 27800 is Down side

GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - The Bollinger Bands show price giving support from the middle band a good test and
I expect price to eventually move back up to the upper band and push even higher into that band to set
up the final rally high. We have been expecting the 5 point broadening top to morph into a more bearish
7 point top and I believe we now have the point 6 low in place at 29700-29880. It is possible for one last
marginal low although I personally favour a higher low to form. Let’s see. The MCX Gold it is Expected
to touch the level of 30900 in next week Trading Session.

Monday, 13 February 2017

SILVER - There are three crucial reasons why the silver price will outperform the gold price when the
highly inflated paper markets disintegrate under the weight of massive debt and derivatives. While many
precious metals investors are frustrated by the ability of the Fed and Central Banks to continue to prop
up the markets, the longer they postpone the day of reckoning, the worse the collapse. The Significance
levels for Silver is 42090-43160 is up side and 40150-39890 is Down side.

Detail of Chart - The daily chart of the Silver shows it making a stair-step series of lower highs and
lower lows, following the path of the declining 50-day moving average. The inverse head-and-shoulders
pattern began forming last November, with the low that month forming the left shoulder, the December
low defining the head, and this month’s price action marking the right shoulder. Previous resistance in
the $ 16.30 area delineates the neckline, and it was successfully retested in Friday’s strong session. The
Significance Levels for Silver is 40890-41256 is Down Side and 43280-443860 is Up side silver is
Expected to trade in Bullish trend for next trading Week.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

129

127

125

125

123

456

438

420

414

402

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

S1

S2

S3

S4

121

119

117

396

384

366

348

123

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3827

3748

3669

3639

3590

3560

3511

3432

3353

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

30077

29733

29389

29230

29045

28886

28701

28357

28013

174

169

164

163

159

158

154

149

144

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

222

216

210

207

204

201

198

192

186

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

767

746

725

718

704

697

683

662

641

43318

42958

42015

41432

40489

39546

208

201

198

194

191

187

180

173

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45204 44261
30-DEC-2016

215

42375

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

132

129

126

125

123

122

120

117

114

461

441

421

415

401

395

381

361

341

4120

3936

3752

3681

3568

3497

3384

3200

3016

30638

30149

29660

29416

29171

28927

28682

28193

27704

COPPER
CRUDE OIL
GOLD

28-FEB-2016
19-OCT-2016
03-FEB-2016

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

180

173

166

163

159

156

152

145

138

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

242

230

218

211

206

199

194

182

170

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

783

756

729

720

702

693

675

648

621

42958

42375

42015

41432

40489

39546

200

192

188

180

168

156

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45204 44261
30-DEC-2016

228

216

43318
204

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT 2016

70.95

69.85

68.64

67.67

66.42

65.49

66.12

65.88

65.06

EURINR

26-OCT 2016

78.26

76.27

74.52

72.35

71.04

70.98

69.71

68.05

GBPINR

26-OCT 2016

90.25

88.24

86.38

84.02

80.08

79.01

77.98

75.58

73.18

JPYINR

26-OCT 2016

63.28

60.74

59.34

57.78

56.86

56.04

55.69

55.06

54.88

67.79

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

73.98

72.46

68.44

68.12

66.52

66.04

65.15

64.38

63.17

EURINR

26-OCT2016

79.48

77.51

75.82

73.95

70.68

69.25

68.01

67.64

65.59

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

98.56

96.74

92.34

88.82

82.26

80.08

78.28

76.28

74.88

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

69.84

67.98

65.17

63.28

59.44

57.34

55.75

53.88

51.03

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

735

725

715

709

705

699

695

685

675

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3102

3069

3036

3016

3003

2983

2970

2937

2904

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

3927

3893

3859

3838

3825

3804

3791

3757

3723

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

17938

17668

17398

17247

17128

16977

16858

16588

16318

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3362

3319

3276

3251

3233

3208

3190

3147

3104

TMC

20-APR-2016

7155

7045

6935

6869

6828

6759

6715

6605

6495

DATE

R4

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

758

741

724

713

707

696

690

673

656

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3216

3194

3082

3038

3015

2971

2948

2881

2814

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

3980

3929

3878

3848

3827

3797

3776

3725

3674

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

19338

18648

17958

17527 17268

16837

16578

15888

15198

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3558

3456

3354

3291

3252

3189

3150

3048

2946

TMC

20-APR-2016

7481

7261

7041

6923

6821

6703

6601

6381

6161

DATE

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices steadied on Friday, but remained below the week’s three-month highs as the dollar pared
back some of the gains made in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a major tax
announcement. Gold for February delivery settled down 0.15% at $ 1,235.0 on the Comex division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal was still 1.3% higher for the week. On Wednesday,
gold reached its highest level since mid-November at $ 1,243.9. The U.S. dollar index, which measures
the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 100.71 not far
from the eleven-day highs of 101.02 set earlier Friday. The index ended the week with gains of 0.95%, the
largest weekly percentage gain since mid-December after remarks from Trump indicted that his
administration would soon reform tax policy. Trump said Thursday he would be announcing something
over the next two or three weeks that would be “phenomenal” in terms of tax. A strong dollar is typically
bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when
borrowing costs rise.
Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $ 17.95 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week
with gains of 2.69% . Copper was up 4.65% at $ 2.777 a pound and ended the week up 6.03% amid fears
over a supply disruption. Workers at BHP Billiton Escondida in Chile, the world's largest copper mine,
went on strike on Thursday, bringing production to a standstill. Platinum was down 0.77% at $1,014.3
late Friday. In the week ahead, the U.S., the UK and China are to release what will be closely watched
data on inflation. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify to Congress for the first
time since Donald Trump entered the White House. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has
compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, February 13
Japan is to publish preliminary data on fourth quarter economic growth.
Tuesday, February 14
China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.
Germany is to put out a preliminary estimate of fourth quarter growth, while the euro zone is to release a
revised estimate of fourth quarter growth.
The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.
The U.K. is to publish data on consumer price inflation.
The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington to testify
on the bank’s latest monetary policy report.
Separately, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak at an event in Houston.

Wednesday, February 15
The U.K. is to publish its latest employment report.
The U.S. is to release a raft of economic data, including reports on inflation, retail sales, industrial
production and manufacturing activity in the New York region.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to testify on the bank’s latest monetary policy report to the House Banking
Committee, in Washington.

Thursday, February 16
Australia is to publish its latest jobs report.
The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its latest meeting.
The U.S. is to publish reports on building permits, housing starts, jobless claims and manufacturing
activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, February 17
New Zealand is to publish a report on retail sales.
The U.K. is also to report on retail sales.
Canada is to round up the week with figures on foreign securities purchases.
Gold steadied on Friday, but remained below this week's three-month top as the U.S. dollar and Treasury
yields came off their highs after the currency initially jumped on U.S. President Donald Trump's promise
of a major tax announcement. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.02 percent at $1,230.78 an ounce by 2:24 p.m.
EST (1924 GMT), while U.S. gold futures GCv1 for April delivery settled down 0.07 percent at
$1,235.90. On Wednesday, spot gold reached its highest since mid-November at $1,244.67. Gold prices
were on track for a second weekly gain, up 1 percent from late last Friday. The dollar .DXY pared gains
against a currency basket on Friday after earlier strength from U.S. President Donald Trump's pledge to
announce a major tax plan within weeks cooled some market nerves, reinvigorating dollar bulls. Wall
Street hit record highs for a second day on hopes of the business-friendly tax cuts. "The dollar puts a little
pressure on gold however the strength in the equity markets and the strength in the other precious metals
is lifting gold up. gold prices moved into positive territory. "It's really the intermarket relationship that's

stabilizing gold right now." Silver XAG= was up 1.5 percent at $17.91 an ounce, after tapping $ 17.99,
the highest since Nov. 11. Palladium XPD= rose 1.6 percent to $ 782, after rising to $786.40, the highest
since Jan. 25. "Both silver and palladium are up on the day as an improving China signals a better global
economy and gives support to the more industrial metals of the group," said aid Miguel Perez-Santalla,
vice president of Heraeus Metal Management in New York. Earlier in the session, however, gold prices
were lower. "The Trumpflation trade is back on the agenda, which is negative for gold. U.S. economic
data has also stoked talk that the Federal Reserve would press ahead with U.S. interest rate hikes sooner
rather than later. U.S. import prices rose more than expected in January, while initial jobless claims
dropped unexpectedly last week to the lowest in nearly 43 years. is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest
rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in
which it is priced. The major physical markets in Asia were mixed this week as Indian jewelers stocked
up for wedding season, while rising prices sidelined buyers elsewhere.
Platinum XPT= was down 0.6 percent at $1,006.10.
Gold prices tumbled on Friday, as the U.S. dollar remained broadly supported following recent comments
by U.S. President Donald Trump on tax reform and an upbeat jobless claims report added to optimism
over the strength of the U.S. economy. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
gold futures for April delivery were down 1.12% at $1,223.00, the lowest since February 6. The April
contract ended Thursday’s session 0.22% lower at $ 1,236.80 an ounce.
Futures were likely to find support at $ 1,206.20, the low of February 3 and resistance at $1,243.50,
Thursday’s high. The dollar strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he
would announce the most ambitious tax reform plan since the Reagan era in the next few weeks. During a
meeting with airline CEOs on Thursday, Trump promised a “phenomenal” tax plan, without giving any
specific details of the plan. The comments came after the U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless
claims decreased by 12,000 to 234,000 in the week ending February 4. Analysts had expected jobless
claims to rise by 4,000. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 100.69, just off a two-week high of 100.75 hit
overnight. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for March delivery lost 1.01% to $17.562 a troy
ounce, while copper futures for March delivery gained 0.77% to $2.675 a pound. Copper prices remained
under pressure however, as workers at the Escondida copper mine in Chile, the largest in the world,
launched a strike on Thursday. The workers union has warned that the strike could be lengthy, potentially
affecting global supplies.
Chile is the world’s biggest producer of the red metal, providing almost a third of the world's supply.
Asian gold demand was mixed this week with Indian jewellers stocking up for the wedding season while
rising prices kept buyers on the sidelines elsewhere. After delaying purchases last month in anticipation of
an import duty cut in the federal budget, jewellers in India have started rebuilding inventories on the back
of an uptick in retail demand due to the wedding season. "The uncertainty over the duty cut is over.
Jewellers are building inventory. Last week, the Indian government presented its budget for the 2017/18


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