PokemonGo DistributionMath (PDF)

Odds of "Catching Em All" with Staggered
Release vs. Full G1 + G2 Release
1
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Starting with:
154 available*
100.00%
99.35%
98.70%
98.05%
97.40%
96.75%
96.10%
95.45%
94.81%
94.16%
93.51%
92.86%
92.21%
91.56%
90.91%
90.26%
89.61%
88.96%
88.31%
87.66%
87.01%
86.36%
85.71%
85.06%
84.42%
83.77%
83.12%
82.47%
81.82%
81.17%
80.52%
79.87%
79.22%
78.57%
77.92%
77.27%
76.62%
75.97%
75.32%
74.68%
74.03%

"Tries"
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.19
1.20
1.21
1.22
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.28
1.29
1.31
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.35

Starting with:
240 available*
100.00%
99.58%
99.17%
98.75%
98.33%
97.92%
97.50%
97.08%
96.67%
96.25%
95.83%
95.42%
95.00%
94.58%
94.17%
93.75%
93.33%
92.92%
92.50%
92.08%
91.67%
91.25%
90.83%
90.42%
90.00%
89.58%
89.17%
88.75%
88.33%
87.92%
87.50%
87.08%
86.67%
86.25%
85.83%
85.42%
85.00%
84.58%
84.17%
83.75%
83.33%

"Tries"
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.06
1.07
1.07
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.09
1.10
1.10
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.15
1.15
1.16
1.17
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.19
1.19
1.20

42
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61
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70
71
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73
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77
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79
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81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88

73.38%
72.73%
72.08%
71.43%
70.78%
70.13%
69.48%
68.83%
68.18%
67.53%
66.88%
66.23%
65.58%
64.94%
64.29%
63.64%
62.99%
62.34%
61.69%
61.04%
60.39%
59.74%
59.09%
58.44%
57.79%
57.14%
56.49%
55.84%
55.19%
54.55%
53.90%
53.25%
52.60%
51.95%
51.30%
50.65%
50.00%
49.35%
48.70%
48.05%
47.40%
46.75%
46.10%
45.45%
44.81%
44.16%
43.51%

1.36
1.38
1.39
1.40
1.41
1.43
1.44
1.45
1.47
1.48
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.54
1.56
1.57
1.59
1.60
1.62
1.64
1.66
1.67
1.69
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.77
1.79
1.81
1.83
1.86
1.88
1.90
1.93
1.95
1.97
2.00
2.03
2.05
2.08
2.11
2.14
2.17
2.20
2.23
2.26
2.30

82.92%
82.50%
82.08%
81.67%
81.25%
80.83%
80.42%
80.00%
79.58%
79.17%
78.75%
78.33%
77.92%
77.50%
77.08%
76.67%
76.25%
75.83%
75.42%
75.00%
74.58%
74.17%
73.75%
73.33%
72.92%
72.50%
72.08%
71.67%
71.25%
70.83%
70.42%
70.00%
69.58%
69.17%
68.75%
68.33%
67.92%
67.50%
67.08%
66.67%
66.25%
65.83%
65.42%
65.00%
64.58%
64.17%
63.75%

1.21
1.21
1.22
1.22
1.23
1.24
1.24
1.25
1.26
1.26
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.29
1.30
1.30
1.31
1.32
1.33
1.33
1.34
1.35
1.36
1.36
1.37
1.38
1.39
1.40
1.40
1.41
1.42
1.43
1.44
1.45
1.45
1.46
1.47
1.48
1.49
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.53
1.54
1.55
1.56
1.57

89
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112
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115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135

42.86%
42.21%
41.56%
40.91%
40.26%
39.61%
38.96%
38.31%
37.66%
37.01%
36.36%
35.71%
35.06%
34.42%
33.77%
33.12%
32.47%
31.82%
31.17%
30.52%
29.87%
29.22%
28.57%
27.92%
27.27%
26.62%
25.97%
25.32%
24.68%
24.03%
23.38%
22.73%
22.08%
21.43%
20.78%
20.13%
19.48%
18.83%
18.18%
17.53%
16.88%
16.23%
15.58%
14.94%
14.29%
13.64%
12.99%

2.33
2.37
2.41
2.44
2.48
2.52
2.57
2.61
2.66
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.91
2.96
3.02
3.08
3.14
3.21
3.28
3.35
3.42
3.50
3.58
3.67
3.76
3.85
3.95
4.05
4.16
4.28
4.40
4.53
4.67
4.81
4.97
5.13
5.31
5.50
5.70
5.92
6.16
6.42
6.70
7.00
7.33
7.70

63.33%
62.92%
62.50%
62.08%
61.67%
61.25%
60.83%
60.42%
60.00%
59.58%
59.17%
58.75%
58.33%
57.92%
57.50%
57.08%
56.67%
56.25%
55.83%
55.42%
55.00%
54.58%
54.17%
53.75%
53.33%
52.92%
52.50%
52.08%
51.67%
51.25%
50.83%
50.42%
50.00%
49.58%
49.17%
48.75%
48.33%
47.92%
47.50%
47.08%
46.67%
46.25%
45.83%
45.42%
45.00%
44.58%
44.17%

1.58
1.59
1.60
1.61
1.62
1.63
1.64
1.66
1.67
1.68
1.69
1.70
1.71
1.73
1.74
1.75
1.76
1.78
1.79
1.80
1.82
1.83
1.85
1.86
1.88
1.89
1.90
1.92
1.94
1.95
1.97
1.98
2.00
2.02
2.03
2.05
2.07
2.09
2.11
2.12
2.14
2.16
2.18
2.20
2.22
2.24
2.26

136
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163
164
165
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167
168
169
170
171
172
173
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175
176
177
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180
181
182

12.34%
11.69%
11.04%
10.39%
9.74%
9.09%
8.44%
7.79%
7.14%
6.49%
5.84%
5.19%
4.55%
3.90%
3.25%
2.60%
1.95%
1.30%
36.25%
35.83%
35.42%
35.00%
34.58%
34.17%
33.75%
33.33%
32.92%
32.50%
32.08%
31.67%
31.25%
30.83%
30.42%
30.00%
29.58%
29.17%
28.75%
28.33%
27.92%
27.50%
27.08%
26.67%
26.25%
25.83%
25.42%
25.00%
24.58%

8.11
8.56
9.06
9.63
10.27
11.00
11.85
12.83
14.00
15.40
17.11
19.25
22.00
25.67
30.80
38.50
51.33
77.00
2.76
2.79
2.82
2.86
2.89
2.93
2.96
3.00
3.04
3.08
3.12
3.16
3.20
3.24
3.29
3.33
3.38
3.43
3.48
3.53
3.58
3.64
3.69
3.75
3.81
3.87
3.93
4.00
4.07

43.75%
43.33%
42.92%
42.50%
42.08%
41.67%
41.25%
40.83%
40.42%
40.00%
39.58%
39.17%
38.75%
38.33%
37.92%
37.50%
37.08%
36.67%
36.25%
35.83%
35.42%
35.00%
34.58%
34.17%
33.75%
33.33%
32.92%
32.50%
32.08%
31.67%
31.25%
30.83%
30.42%
30.00%
29.58%
29.17%
28.75%
28.33%
27.92%
27.50%
27.08%
26.67%
26.25%
25.83%
25.42%
25.00%
24.58%

2.29
2.31
2.33
2.35
2.38
2.40
2.42
2.45
2.47
2.50
2.53
2.55
2.58
2.61
2.64
2.67
2.70
2.73
2.76
2.79
2.82
2.86
2.89
2.93
2.96
3.00
3.04
3.08
3.12
3.16
3.20
3.24
3.29
3.33
3.38
3.43
3.48
3.53
3.58
3.64
3.69
3.75
3.81
3.87
3.93
4.00
4.07

183
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209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229

24.17%
23.75%
23.33%
22.92%
22.50%
22.08%
21.67%
21.25%
20.83%
20.42%
20.00%
19.58%
19.17%
18.75%
18.33%
17.92%
17.50%
17.08%
16.67%
16.25%
15.83%
15.42%
15.00%
14.58%
14.17%
13.75%
13.33%
12.92%
12.50%
12.08%
11.67%
11.25%
10.83%
10.42%
10.00%
9.58%
9.17%
8.75%
8.33%
7.92%
7.50%
7.08%
6.67%
6.25%
5.83%
5.42%
5.00%

4.14
4.21
4.29
4.36
4.44
4.53
4.62
4.71
4.80
4.90
5.00
5.11
5.22
5.33
5.45
5.58
5.71
5.85
6.00
6.15
6.32
6.49
6.67
6.86
7.06
7.27
7.50
7.74
8.00
8.28
8.57
8.89
9.23
9.60
10.00
10.43
10.91
11.43
12.00
12.63
13.33
14.12
15.00
16.00
17.14
18.46
20.00

24.17%
23.75%
23.33%
22.92%
22.50%
22.08%
21.67%
21.25%
20.83%
20.42%
20.00%
19.58%
19.17%
18.75%
18.33%
17.92%
17.50%
17.08%
16.67%
16.25%
15.83%
15.42%
15.00%
14.58%
14.17%
13.75%
13.33%
12.92%
12.50%
12.08%
11.67%
11.25%
10.83%
10.42%
10.00%
9.58%
9.17%
8.75%
8.33%
7.92%
7.50%
7.08%
6.67%
6.25%
5.83%
5.42%
5.00%

4.14
4.21
4.29
4.36
4.44
4.53
4.62
4.71
4.80
4.90
5.00
5.11
5.22
5.33
5.45
5.58
5.71
5.85
6.00
6.15
6.32
6.49
6.67
6.86
7.06
7.27
7.50
7.74
8.00
8.28
8.57
8.89
9.23
9.60
10.00
10.43
10.91
11.43
12.00
12.63
13.33
14.12
15.00
16.00
17.14
18.46
20.00

230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240

4.58%
4.17%
3.75%
3.33%
2.92%
2.50%
2.08%
1.67%
1.25%
0.83%
0.42%
Average Tries:

21.82
24.00
26.67
30.00
34.29
40.00
48.00
60.00
80.00
120.00
240.00
1922.81

4.58%
4.17%
3.75%
3.33%
2.92%
2.50%
2.08%
1.67%
1.25%
0.83%
0.42%
Average Tries:

21.82
24.00
26.67
30.00
34.29
40.00
48.00
60.00
80.00
120.00
240.00
1454.38

* 154 available refers to all pokemon currently available in the game globally, including
region exclusives
* 240 available refers to all non-legendary and non-mythical pokemon anticipated with a
"full" release of Gen 2
- This assumes even distribution for simplicity, as if species were merely a number on a 154
or 240 sided die. Real distribution is far more complex, but will exacerbate this difference,
making a full release even more favorable. Furthermore, having to travel to catch pokemon
-twice- would not benefit people just getting the game in their area.