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Commodity Research Report 20 february 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



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Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Last week, spot gold prices rose marginally by 0.1 percent to close at $1235.2 per ounce as
the dollar weakened after a 10-day winning streak and investors took the opportunity to buy bullion as
a hedge against political uncertainty in the United States and Europe. On the MCX, gold prices rose by
0.6 percent to close at Rs.29360 per 10 gms. Concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, as
well as elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year, have fueled gold's rise to a peak of
$1,244.67 on Feb. 8. But the prospect of a higher dollar and U.S. Treasury yields after U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that U.S. interest rates may need to be raised in March pushed gold to
$1,216.41 on Wednesday, its lowest since Feb. 3. We expect gold prices to trade higher as uncertainty
continues to haunt investor’s flight towards safe haven, while weak dollar index would also be
supportive for gold prices. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade higher,
Gold in MCX Futures inched higher to close at 0.84%, prices opened higher on Monday above its key
level of Rs.29211. Gold prices made a fresh high at Rs.29278. Prices trading little lower on Friday
below Rs.29400 and expect prices to trade little sideways around Rs.29200 to Rs.29400 levels. As per
medium term perspective, the second wave of upside started from Rs.29100 and could extend its rally
till Rs.29600 to Rs.29700 levels..
GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - The Bollinger Bands show price giving support from the middle band a good test and
I expect price to eventually move back up to the upper band and push even higher into that band to set
up the final rally high. We have been expecting the 5 point broadening top to morph into a more bearish
7 point top and I believe we now have the point 6 low in place at $1206. It is possible for one last
marginal low although I personally favour a higher low to form. Let’s see. And in MCX it is Expected
to touch the level of 29800-29950 in next week Trading Session.

Monday, 20 February 2017

SILVER - Spot silver prices rose by 0.1 percent to close at $18 per ounce in linen with rise in gold
prices, however, stronger dollar index capped the rally. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.84 percent
to close at Rs.42937 per kg. Silver prices trading above its key resistance of $18 but it may find its
another near - term hurdle at $18.1 to $18.2 levels, a break in which prices could extend its medium term
bull trend till $18.5. Silver in MCX Futures rallied higher on Monday to the high of Rs.42731. We can
expect this rally to continue in coming sessions till Rs.43500 to Rs.44000 levels. Silver expected to
hover around its high’s for short term.

Chart Details ;MCX Silver-Mar seems oversold with low volume (RSI < 52). It has major support at
41400-40300. If it breaks 41400, then it can fall down to 40300-38600. And on upper side it has major
Resistance at 43200-44820.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

131

129

127

126

125

417

411

405

403

399

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

S1

S2

S3

S4

123

121

119

397

393

387

381

124

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3691

3651

3611

3595

3571

3555

3531

3491

3451

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

29811

29664

29517

29439

29370

29292

29223

29076

28929

160

157

154

153

151

150

148

145

142

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

204

200

196

193

192

189

188

184

180

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

780

765

750

744

735

729

720

705

690

43123

43030

42813

42689

42472

201

195

191

189

185

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 43557 43340
30-DEC-2016

207

42906

183

177

42255
171

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-DEC-2016

138

134

130

127

126

123

122

118

114

COPPER

28-FEB-2016

457

439

421

411

403

393

385

367

349

CRUDE OIL

19-OCT-2016

3813

3733

3653

3616

3573

3537

3493

3413

3333

GOLD

03-FEB-2016

31078 30465

29852

29606

29239

28993

28626

28013

27400

LEAD

30-DEC-2016

200

185

170

161

155

146

140

125

110

NATURAL GAS

27-DEC-2015

230

218

206

199

194

187

182

170

158

NICKEL

30-DEC-2016

814

786

758

749

730

721

702

674

646

44581

43672

43305

42763

42396

41854

40945

40036

217

204

196

191

183

178

165

152

SILVER
ZINC

03-MARCH-2016 45490
30-DEC-2016

230

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

68.95

67.75

67.07

66.95

66.85

66.48

66.23

66.12

66.03

EURINR

26-OCT2016

74.68

73.82

72.42

71.19

70.68

70.04

69.75

68.09

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

85.15

84.52

83.20

82.23

81.74

80.56

79.63

78.88

77.62

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

63.14

62.73

61.23

59.86

57.67

56.03

54.63

53.17

52.47

67.56

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-OCT2016

68.96

67.62

67.39

67.23

67.00

66.85

66.62

66.46

66.07

EURINR

26-OCT2016

74.66

73.58

73.01

72.78

71.42

70.82

66.09

65.98

64.94

GBPINR

26-OCT2016

94.52

91.58

89.23

87.54

85.13

83.09

82.36

79.57

77.24

JPYINR

26-OCT2016

68.14

66.55

64.42

62.52

60.86

58.38

56.29

54.12

52.12

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

684

682

680

679

678

677

676

674

672

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3091

3027

2963

2929

2899

2865

2835

2771

2707

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

3883

3850

3817

3803

3784

3770

3751

3718

3685

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

17827

17582

17337

17233

17092

16988

16847

16602

16357

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3398

3356

3314

3295

3272

3253

3230

3188

3146

TMC

20-APR-2016

7171

7065

6959

6897

6853

6791

6747

6641

6535

DATE

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-JAN-2016

757

733

709

694

685

670

661

637

613

SYBEANIDR

20-JAN-2016

3285

3163

3041

2967

2919

2845

2797

2675

2553

RMSEED

20-JAN-2016

3963

3906

3849

3819

3792

3762

3735

3678

3621

JEERAUNJHA

20-JAN-2016

18307

17882

17457

17293 17032

16868

16607

16182

15757

GUARSEED10

20-JAN-2016

3606

3486

3366

3321

3246

3201

3126

3006

2886

TMC

20-APR-2016

7671

7411

7151

6993

6891

6733

6631

6371

6111

DATE

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices fell on Friday as the stronger dollar outweighed concerns about uncertainty surrounding
U.S. policy and upcoming elections in Europe. Gold for February delivery settled down 0.46% at
$1,235.85 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. dollar index, which
measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.44%
to 100.89 late Friday, reversing Thursday’s 0.72% drop and leaving it up 0.16% for the week. A strong
dollar is typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yieldbearing assets when borrowing costs rise. The precious metal still notched up a weekly gain of 0.35% as
uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump spurred safe haven demand for bullion.
Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $ 17.97 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week
with gains of 0.25%. In the holiday shortened week ahead, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its
February meeting on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
Investors will be looking to U.S. housing data in order to see whether the rise in consumer spending and
inflation is translating into higher house prices and a pick-up in home sales. Markets will also be
watching survey data on private sector activity in the euro zone on Tuesday. Ahead of the coming week,
Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday February 20
 Financial markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
 Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.

Tuesday, February 21
 The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving
investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.
 The euro zone is to release survey data on private sector business activity.
 The UK is to report on public sector borrowing.
 Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to speak at an event in Minnesota and Philadelphia Fed
head Patrick Harker is to speak at an event in Pennsylvania.

Wednesday, February 22
 RBA Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at an event in Sydney.
 Australia is to release data on completed construction work and the wage price index.
 The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
 The UK is to release revised figures on fourth quarter growth.
 Canada is to publish data on retail sales.
 The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales and later the Fed is to publish the minutes
of its February policy meeting.

Thursday, February 23
 Australia is to report on private capital expenditure.
 The U.S. is to release the weekly report in initial jobless claims.

Friday, February 24
 RBA Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at an event in Sydney.
 Canada is to publish figures on inflation.
 The U.S. is to round up the week with data on new home sales and a revised report on consumer
sentiment.

Gold prices eased on Friday but notched a weekly gain as investors opted for the safe-haven qualities of
bullion due to uncertainty about U.S. and European politics as well as the direction of stock markets.
Global equity markets lost momentum after setting record highs in the previous two sessions, partly due
to disquiet about the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. is close to its recent multimonth high
despite the strong dollar, due to an increase in volatility on the equity markets and more uneasiness on
the political front, which is supporting the search for safe-haven assets. Spot gold XAU= was 0.14
percent lower at $1,237 per ounce by 2:44 p.m. EST, while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 ended the session
down 0.2 percent at $1,239.10. Concern over Trump's policies, as well as elections in the Netherlands,
France and Germany this year, fueled gold's rise to a peak of $1,244.67 on Feb. 8, the strongest in
nearly three months. Gold, on track for a third week of gains, has risen nearly 8 percent in 2017. Early

in the week, gold prices fell after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. interest rates may need to be raised
in March. "On balance, we still don't think that the Fed will raise interest rates at the March FOMC
meeting, but the 0.6 percent month-on-month surge in consumer prices in January could prompt the Fed
to move sooner than we anticipate," Capital Economics analysts said in a note. Gold prices recovered by
Wednesday after strong U.S. data showed U.S. inflation was picking up. is highly sensitive to rising
U.S. interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting
the dollar, in which it is priced.
The dollar index .DXY rose 0.5 percent to 100.93 on Friday, recovering from a one-week low of 100.41
the day before. Holdings of SPDR Gold, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, have
risen 5.6 percent so far this month, the most since June 2016. "The market seems to be quite supported
by investment inflows into the ETFs and I think this will be the most important factor through the year
as we expect investors to keep pouring money into gold ETFs," Weinberg added.

Gold started trading at a discount to official prices in India on Friday for the first time in seven weeks,
and buyers elsewhere in Asia held back purchases, waiting for rallying bullion prices to ease. Gold
XAU= crept higher on Friday as investors opted for its relative safety given uncertainty about U.S. and
European politics and the direction of stock markets. Gold, on track for a third week of gains, has risen
about 7.5 percent in 2017. "The physical side has been very weak still, as people are hesitant in buying
at these levels. "We are seeing only those who are buying for investment purposes since Donald Trump
came in January. rest of them aren't buying and waiting for prices to come down."
Dealers in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, were offering a discount of up to $1 an
ounce this week from official domestic prices, compared to a premium of $3 last week. The domestic
price includes a 10 percent import tax. "The market is losing momentum due to the price rise. Prices
need to come down below 28,500 rupees to boost demand,"Gold MAUc1 was trading around 29,400
rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees in December, the lowest level since Feb. 2,
2016. Gold demand in India will be muted this year after dropping to multi-year lows in 2016, as the
government pushes to make the market more transparent and brings in a new tax, the World Gold
Council said. has been falling after remaining robust for the past two-three weeks," said Daman Prakash
Rathod, a director at MNC Bullion, a wholesaler based in Chennai in southern India. "Retail buyers are
waiting for (a) price correction. Even jewellers have stopped re-stocking," he said. India's gold imports
in January fell 30 percent from a year ago to $2.04 billion. in China, the top consumer, were quoted $10
over international spot prices XAU= .
Hong Kong and Singapore premiums dropped slightly to 70 cents to $1.10 from last week's 80 cents$1.20. Prices in Japan were at a discount of 50 cents to $1, said a Tokyo-based trader.


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