Commodity Research Report 20 february 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Last week, spot gold prices rose marginally by 0.1 percent to close at $1235.2 per ounce as
the dollar weakened after a 10-day winning streak and investors took the opportunity to buy bullion as
a hedge against political uncertainty in the United States and Europe. On the MCX, gold prices rose by
0.6 percent to close at Rs.29360 per 10 gms. Concern over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, as
well as elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year, have fueled gold's rise to a peak of
$1,244.67 on Feb. 8. But the prospect of a higher dollar and U.S. Treasury yields after U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that U.S. interest rates may need to be raised in March pushed gold to
$1,216.41 on Wednesday, its lowest since Feb. 3. We expect gold prices to trade higher as uncertainty
continues to haunt investor’s flight towards safe haven, while weak dollar index would also be
supportive for gold prices. On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade higher,
Gold in MCX Futures inched higher to close at 0.84%, prices opened higher on Monday above its key
level of Rs.29211. Gold prices made a fresh high at Rs.29278. Prices trading little lower on Friday
below Rs.29400 and expect prices to trade little sideways around Rs.29200 to Rs.29400 levels. As per
medium term perspective, the second wave of upside started from Rs.29100 and could extend its rally
till Rs.29600 to Rs.29700 levels..
Chart Details - The Bollinger Bands show price giving support from the middle band a good test and
I expect price to eventually move back up to the upper band and push even higher into that band to set
up the final rally high. We have been expecting the 5 point broadening top to morph into a more bearish
7 point top and I believe we now have the point 6 low in place at $1206. It is possible for one last
marginal low although I personally favour a higher low to form. Let’s see. And in MCX it is Expected
to touch the level of 29800-29950 in next week Trading Session.
Monday, 20 February 2017
SILVER - Spot silver prices rose by 0.1 percent to close at $18 per ounce in linen with rise in gold
prices, however, stronger dollar index capped the rally. On the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.84 percent
to close at Rs.42937 per kg. Silver prices trading above its key resistance of $18 but it may find its
another near - term hurdle at $18.1 to $18.2 levels, a break in which prices could extend its medium term
bull trend till $18.5. Silver in MCX Futures rallied higher on Monday to the high of Rs.42731. We can
expect this rally to continue in coming sessions till Rs.43500 to Rs.44000 levels. Silver expected to
hover around its high’s for short term.
Chart Details ;MCX Silver-Mar seems oversold with low volume (RSI < 52). It has major support at
41400-40300. If it breaks 41400, then it can fall down to 40300-38600. And on upper side it has major
Resistance at 43200-44820.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
03-MARCH-2016 43557 43340
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices fell on Friday as the stronger dollar outweighed concerns about uncertainty surrounding
U.S. policy and upcoming elections in Europe. Gold for February delivery settled down 0.46% at
$1,235.85 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. dollar index, which
measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose 0.44%
to 100.89 late Friday, reversing Thursday’s 0.72% drop and leaving it up 0.16% for the week. A strong
dollar is typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yieldbearing assets when borrowing costs rise. The precious metal still notched up a weekly gain of 0.35% as
uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump spurred safe haven demand for bullion.
Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $ 17.97 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week
with gains of 0.25%. In the holiday shortened week ahead, the Fed is to publish the minutes of its
February meeting on Wednesday, which will be scrutinized for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
Investors will be looking to U.S. housing data in order to see whether the rise in consumer spending and
inflation is translating into higher house prices and a pick-up in home sales. Markets will also be
watching survey data on private sector activity in the euro zone on Tuesday. Ahead of the coming week,
Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday February 20
Financial markets in the U.S. will be closed for the Presidents Day holiday.
Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
Tuesday, February 21
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, giving
investors insight into how officials view the economy and their policy options.
The euro zone is to release survey data on private sector business activity.
The UK is to report on public sector borrowing.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is to speak at an event in Minnesota and Philadelphia Fed
head Patrick Harker is to speak at an event in Pennsylvania.
Wednesday, February 22
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at an event in Sydney.
Australia is to release data on completed construction work and the wage price index.
The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
The UK is to release revised figures on fourth quarter growth.
Canada is to publish data on retail sales.
The U.S. is to release industry data on existing home sales and later the Fed is to publish the minutes
of its February policy meeting.
Thursday, February 23
Australia is to report on private capital expenditure.
The U.S. is to release the weekly report in initial jobless claims.
Friday, February 24
RBA Governor Philip Lowe is to speak at an event in Sydney.
Canada is to publish figures on inflation.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on new home sales and a revised report on consumer
Gold prices eased on Friday but notched a weekly gain as investors opted for the safe-haven qualities of
bullion due to uncertainty about U.S. and European politics as well as the direction of stock markets.
Global equity markets lost momentum after setting record highs in the previous two sessions, partly due
to disquiet about the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. is close to its recent multimonth high
despite the strong dollar, due to an increase in volatility on the equity markets and more uneasiness on
the political front, which is supporting the search for safe-haven assets. Spot gold XAU= was 0.14
percent lower at $1,237 per ounce by 2:44 p.m. EST, while U.S. gold futures GCcv1 ended the session
down 0.2 percent at $1,239.10. Concern over Trump's policies, as well as elections in the Netherlands,
France and Germany this year, fueled gold's rise to a peak of $1,244.67 on Feb. 8, the strongest in
nearly three months. Gold, on track for a third week of gains, has risen nearly 8 percent in 2017. Early
in the week, gold prices fell after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said U.S. interest rates may need to be raised
in March. "On balance, we still don't think that the Fed will raise interest rates at the March FOMC
meeting, but the 0.6 percent month-on-month surge in consumer prices in January could prompt the Fed
to move sooner than we anticipate," Capital Economics analysts said in a note. Gold prices recovered by
Wednesday after strong U.S. data showed U.S. inflation was picking up. is highly sensitive to rising
U.S. interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting
the dollar, in which it is priced.
The dollar index .DXY rose 0.5 percent to 100.93 on Friday, recovering from a one-week low of 100.41
the day before. Holdings of SPDR Gold, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, have
risen 5.6 percent so far this month, the most since June 2016. "The market seems to be quite supported
by investment inflows into the ETFs and I think this will be the most important factor through the year
as we expect investors to keep pouring money into gold ETFs," Weinberg added.
Gold started trading at a discount to official prices in India on Friday for the first time in seven weeks,
and buyers elsewhere in Asia held back purchases, waiting for rallying bullion prices to ease. Gold
XAU= crept higher on Friday as investors opted for its relative safety given uncertainty about U.S. and
European politics and the direction of stock markets. Gold, on track for a third week of gains, has risen
about 7.5 percent in 2017. "The physical side has been very weak still, as people are hesitant in buying
at these levels. "We are seeing only those who are buying for investment purposes since Donald Trump
came in January. rest of them aren't buying and waiting for prices to come down."
Dealers in India, the world's second-largest gold consumer, were offering a discount of up to $1 an
ounce this week from official domestic prices, compared to a premium of $3 last week. The domestic
price includes a 10 percent import tax. "The market is losing momentum due to the price rise. Prices
need to come down below 28,500 rupees to boost demand,"Gold MAUc1 was trading around 29,400
rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after falling to 26,862 rupees in December, the lowest level since Feb. 2,
2016. Gold demand in India will be muted this year after dropping to multi-year lows in 2016, as the
government pushes to make the market more transparent and brings in a new tax, the World Gold
Council said. has been falling after remaining robust for the past two-three weeks," said Daman Prakash
Rathod, a director at MNC Bullion, a wholesaler based in Chennai in southern India. "Retail buyers are
waiting for (a) price correction. Even jewellers have stopped re-stocking," he said. India's gold imports
in January fell 30 percent from a year ago to $2.04 billion. in China, the top consumer, were quoted $10
over international spot prices XAU= .
Hong Kong and Singapore premiums dropped slightly to 70 cents to $1.10 from last week's 80 cents$1.20. Prices in Japan were at a discount of 50 cents to $1, said a Tokyo-based trader.