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Commodity Research Report 06 March 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



Original filename: Commodity Research Report 06 March 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -The Gold market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by
-2.48% to settled at 6130 while prices down 150 rupees. Now Gold is getting support at 28914 and
below same could see a test of 28809 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 29162, a move
above could see prices testing 29305. Gold on MCX settled down -0.51% at 29020 as speculation grew
that the U.S. Federal Reserve would press ahead with a rate increase this month. Fed Chair Janet Yellen
said that the central bank is set to raise its benchmark interest rate later this month as long as economic
data on jobs and inflation holds up. Prior to Yellen's comments, the probability of a Fed move in March
had already risen to nearly 80 percent, money markets indicated, after hawkish comments from New
York Fed chief William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. The gold demand in
India stood at 675.5 tonnes in calendar 2016compared to 857.2 tonnes in 2015 - a decline of 21.19%,
according to data released by World Gold Council on Friday. The total jewellery demand in India for
2016 was down by 22.4% at 514 tonnes as compared to 662.3 tonnes in 2015. The Gold is Expected to
trade in positive note for this week, The Significance Resistance for Gold is 29305-29553 and
Significance Support is 228917-28809.

Monday, 6 March 2017

GOLD CHART

Chart Details - The Gold is trading in a positive Territory Momentum Oscillators and RSI also are
trading in neutral phase with the signal of improving trend which is showing strong surge after the little
profitable selling. We are looking from the chart that; gold will show 1300 to 1500 above movements
from the sure crucial level, MCX gold makes pennant pattern on monthly technical chart which shows
boom pro move may continue on the crucial support Rs.28930 and Rs.28700 when likely to found low
price up to Rs.28700 by breaking Rs.28930 and being close below it. Near upper Bollinger band is
opening on Rs.29713 in MCX gold which will work as near resistance. Upper Bollinger band is
extending up to Rs.29939 by opening near Rs.29713 given that; the above price can be found 29939 to
30134 after crossing the given resistance and giving close on it. Traders should focus on $ 1213 as
support when $1258 as resistance in Comex gold during March.

SILVER - The Silver market is also under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open
interest by - 0.88% to settled at 11026. Now Silver is getting support at 42354 and below same could see
a test of 42177 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 42704, a move above could see prices
testing 42877. Silver on MCX settled down -0.26% at 42532 as growing expectations for a March rate
hike in the U.S. and a stronger U.S. dollar continued to weigh on the precious metal. The greenback
remained broadly supported after a number of Federal Reserve officials this week expressed their
support for a March rate hike. The U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims declined by
19,000 to 223,000 in the week ending February 25 from the previous week’s total of 242,000. Fed Chair
Janet Yellen added her influential voice, saying a hike this month would be "appropriate" if economic
data hold up. Silver imports by India, one of the world’s top buyers, will probably shrink this year to the
lowest since 2012 as the government cracks down on black money, farmers struggle for cash and
stockpiles remain ample. The Silver is Also expected to trade in positive trend in this Week the
Significance Resistance is 42829-43358 and Support is 41883-41446.

SILVER CHART

Detail of Chart - MCX Silver is expected to trade in positive Trend The MACD is giving signal to
Move in the continue trend the Major Support for Silver is 42088-41843 and Major Resistance for Silver
would be 42498- breaks 41400, then it can fall down to 40300-38600. And on upper side it has major
Resistance at 43200-44820.

LEVE

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

31-MARCH-17

135

132

129

127

126

28-APR-2017

406

403

400

399

397

CRUDE OIL

20-MARCH-17

3688

3641

3594

3575

GOLD

05-APR-2017

29801

29553

29305

LEAD

31-MARCH-2017

156

154

NATURAL GAS 28-MARCH-2017

196

COPPER

S2

S3

S4

123

120

117

396

394

391

388

3547

3528

3500

3453

3406

29163

29057

28915

28809

28561

28313

152

151

150

149

148

146

144

193

190

189

187

186

184

181

178

732

728

720

708

696

41859

41721

41363

41005

182

179

176

NICKEL

31-MARCH-2017

768

756

744

740

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

43153

42795

42437

42217

ZINC

31-MARCH-2017

194

191

188

187

42079

S1
124

185

184

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-MARCH-17

142

137

132

129

127

124

122

117

112

28-APR-2017

456

437

418

408

399

389

380

361

342

20-MARCH-17

3972

3840

3708

3632

3576

3500

3444

3312

3180

GOLD

05-APR-2017

31751 30918

30085

29553

29252

28720

28419

27586

26753

LEAD

31-MARCH-17

COPPER
CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS 28-MARCH-2017

169

163

157

153

151

147

145

139

133

220

208

196

192

184

180

172

160

148

733

722

709

685

661

42090

41239

39630

38021

182

178

169

160

NICKEL

31-MARCH-2017

805

781

757

746

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

47675

46066

44457

43699

ZINC

31-MARCH-2017

214

205

196

191

42848
187

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELSILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

68.54

67.78

66.89

66.27

66.03

65.88

65.32

65.01

64.54

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

73.68

73.11

72.25

71.62

70.93

70.14

69.89

69.36

68.63

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

84.12

83.74

83.08

82.49

81.70

80.48

79.50

78.70

77.67

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

62.61

61.58

60.14

59.77

58.47

57.44

56.30

55.43

53.89

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

68.72

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

GBPINR
JPYINR

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

68.54

68.12

67.42

67.08

66.30

74.24

73.70

73.03

72.70

71.84

26-MARCH-17

92.67

91.78

90.20

88.32

26-MARCH-17

67.46

66.78

64.24

62.18

S2

S3

S4

65.88

65.18

64.37

70.12

69.22

68.58

67.36

86.21

84.58

82.33

80.60

78.88

60.86

58.42

56.96

54.66

52.78

✍N

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELSCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-MAR-2017

682

677

672

670

667

665

662

657

652

SYBEANIDR

20-MAR-2017

2974

2950

2926

2912

2902

2888

2878

2854

2830

RMSEED

20-MAR-2017

4044

3999

3954

3929

3909

3884

3864

3819

3774

JEERAUNJHA

20-MAR-2017 17753

17463

17173

17002

16883

16712

16593

16303

16013

GUARSEED10

20-MAR-2017

3995

3919

3843

3801

3767

3725

3691

3615

3539

TMC

20-MAR-2017

7245

7115

6985

6911

6855

6781

6725

6595

6465

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELSDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-MAR-2017

741

716

691

680

666

655

641

616

591

SYBEANIDR

20-MAR-2017

3154

3076

2998

2948

2920

2870

2842

2764

2686

RMSEED

20-MAR-2017

4407

4226

4045

3974

3864

3793

3683

3502

3321

JEERAUNJHA

20-MAR-2017

18997

18292

17587

17208 16882

16503

16177

15472

14767

GUARSEED10

20-MAR-2017

4444

4201

3958

3859

3715

3616

3472

3229

2986

TMC

20-MAR-2017

7709

7413

7117

6977

6821

6681

6525

6229

5933

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
GOLD
Gold prices fell on Friday and posted the largest weekly loss of 2017 so far amid growing expectations
that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. Gold for April delivery settled down
0.52% at $ 1,225.5 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, having touched its
lowest since February 15 at $ 1,222.9 earlier. Gold finished the week down 2.5%. Gold then ticked up
0.13% to $1234.5 in after-hours trade. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said Friday that a rate hike "would likely
be appropriate" this month if the economy remains on track. The remarks cemented the view that the
Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting on March 14-15, following a series of hawkish comments
by Fed Policymakers earlier in the week. Almost 80% of traders expect a rate hike at the Fed’s March
meeting, compared to just over 60% on Wednesday, according to Investing.com’s Fed rate monitor tool.
Higher interest rates are typically bearish for gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to
compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Elsewhere in precious metals trading,
silver was at $ 17.99 a troy ounce late Friday, and ended the week down 3.5%, closing the week lower
for the first time in 2017. Copper was at $2.68 a pound and ended the week with a gain of just 0.26%.
Platinum was up 0.67% at $1,000.6 late Friday to end the week down 2.95%. In the week ahead,
markets will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which could seal the deal for a Fed rate hike
later this month. Investors will also be looking to the outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank
meeting for fresh cues on the future direction of its stimulus program.
Gold fell 1 percent on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly loss in 2017 as speculation grew
that the U.S. Federal Reserve would press ahead with a rate increase this month. Fed Chair Janet Yellen
said on Friday that the central bank is set to raise its benchmark interest rate later this month as long as
economic data on jobs and inflation holds up. to Yellen's comments, the probability of a Fed move in
March had already risen to nearly 80 percent, money markets indicated, after hawkish comments from
New York Fed chief William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. "If there has been
a conscious effort (to raise expectations for a rate hike) I'm about to join it," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley
Fischer told an economists' forum, when asked about comments by other Fed officials this past week
that have boosted market odds of a March rate hike. gold XAU= was down 0.03 percent at $1,234.41 an
ounce by 2:22 p.m. EST, after falling 1 percent to $1,222.51, the lowest since Feb. 15. U.S. gold futures
GCv1 for April delivery settled down 0.5 percent at $ 1,226.50. Gold prices have retreated more than 2
percent after failing to decisively break through resistance at their 200-day moving on Monday. "The
market has responded very clearly to the more aggressive stance by FOMC members regarding rate
hikes in March," Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. "It's fair to say that a rate hike in March is
pretty much priced into gold." Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates as they increase the

opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. The
world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares GLD , reported a second daily
inflow on Thursday, of 1.8 tonnes, bringing the weekly rise to 4 tonnes. The dollar, however, took a
breather after two days of gains on Friday. Other precious metals, however, were firm. Spot silver
XAG= turned up 0.8 percent to $17.89 but was set to close the week lower for the first time in 2017.
"True to form, physical demand has not driven silver prices, but political uncertainty has driven greater
investor interest in silver," said Standard Chartered in a note. "The narrowing spread between platinum
and palladium calls into question whether the substitution of platinum for palladium will slow or even
reverse given some autocatalysts can make the switch on a 1:1 basis."
Gold fell 1 percent on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly loss in 2017 as speculation grew
that the U.S. Federal Reserve would press ahead with a rate increase this month. Fed Chair Janet Yellen
said on Friday that the central bank is set to raise its benchmark interest rate later this month as long as
economic data on jobs and inflation holds up. to Yellen's comments, the probability of a Fed move in
March had already risen to nearly 80 percent, money markets indicated, after hawkish comments from
New York Fed chief William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. "If there has been
a conscious effort I'm about to join it," Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told an economists' forum,
when asked about comments by other Fed officials this past week that have boosted market odds of a
March rate hike. gold XAU= was down 0.03 percent at $ 1,234.41 an ounce by 2:22 p.m. EST, after
falling 1 percent to $ 1,222.51, the lowest since Feb. 15. U.S. gold futures GCv1 for April delivery
settled down 0.5 percent at $ 1,226.50. Gold prices have retreated more than 2 percent after failing to
decisively break through resistance at their 200-day moving on Monday. "The market has responded
very clearly to the more aggressive stance by FOMC members regarding rate hikes in March,"
Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said. "It's fair to say that a rate hike in March is pretty much priced
into gold." Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost of
holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. The world's largest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares GLD , reported a second daily inflow on
Thursday, of 1.8 tonnes, bringing the weekly rise to 4 tonnes. The dollar, however, took a breather after
two days of gains on Friday. Other precious metals, however, were firm. Spot silver XAG= turned up
0.8 percent to $ 17.89 but was set to close the week lower for the first time in 2017. "True to form,
physical demand has not driven silver prices, but political uncertainty has driven greater investor interest
in silver," said Standard Chartered in a note. "The narrowing spread between platinum and palladium
calls into question whether the substitution of platinum for palladium will slow or even reverse given
some auto-catalysts can make the switch on a 1:1 basis."
Gold demand in Asia was tepid this week with investors delaying fresh purchases anticipating a further
drop in local prices as the global spot market was pressured by expectations of a hike in interest rates by
the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold XAU= was on track for its first weekly decline in five, its worst
since November, on growing expectations of a U.S. rate hike as early as this month.


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