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Commodity Research Report 27 March 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Gold prices traded little lower on Friday as US Dollar Index rebounded in early trades. Gold in
COMEX traded higher for the second week. Prices were trading up more than 3% and looked to face its nearterm resistance at $ 1250. Gold could settle around $ 1260 to $ 1270 by this week. On the downside prices likely
to find its important support at $ 1230. Gold Futures in MCX had a volatile trading session due to Yellen
speech. Prices initially rebounded from its critical support of Rs.28800 and made a high of Rs.28948 however
prices unable to hold on to its high dropped little lower at 0.29%.Prices likely to take support around Rs.28650
to Rs.28700 levels and expect some rebound from supports till Rs.28900 levels in near term. Gold demand in
India is expected to revive in 2017 after touching to seven-year lows in 2016. We expect gold prices to trade
higher for the week on weak dollar. The metal can rise till Rs 29,100-29,380. One can buy on dips The Crucial
Support for Gold would be Rs. 28,850-28700.”
GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - The Gold is trading in a comfortable zone area Momentum Oscillators and Bollinger Band also
are trading in neutral phase with the signal of improving trend which showing it may surge after the little
profitable selling. Technically Gold market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest
by 2.99% to settled at 4209. Now Gold is getting support at 28722 and below same could see a test of 28650
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28847, a move above could see prices testing 28900.

Monday, 27 .March .2017

SILVER - Silver prices were trading in a range of $ 17.5 to $ 17.6 levels for more than a week. Silver prices
to find its resistance at $ 17.7 to $ 17.8. Silver could hold steady till its next resistance of $ 18. MCX Silver
Futures hovering around its latest high of Rs.41100 to Rs.41500 levels. We expect the Silver prices to trade
higher on this week following international markets. Uncertainty with regards to policies in the US and
elections in the Euro are will keep the safe haven demand intact. The Silver to trade in the Range of 4110041860 in Upcoming week trading sessions.

Detail of Chart -Technical indicators have been entered into the positive trend , Technically Silver has to
Sustain the level of 41100 for the further up movement towards 41600-41800 In the near term, the crucial
Resistance for Silver is 41600-41890 and Support is 39800-39680.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-MARCH-17

131

130

128

127

126

125

124

122

121

COPPER

28-APR-2017

393

389

385

382

381

378

377

373

369

CRUDE OIL

20-MARCH-17

3246

3211

3176

3159

3141

3124

3106

3071

3036

GOLD

05-APR-2017

29150

29025

28900

28846

28775

28721

28650

28525

28400

LEAD

31-MARCH-2017

162

159

156

155

153

152

150

147

144

NATURAL GAS 28-MARCH-2017

211

207

203

202

199

198

195

191

187

672

659

652

646

639

633

620

607

41696

41453

41287

41044

40635

40226

185

184

182

181

178

175

NICKEL

31-MARCH-2017

685

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

42680

ZINC

31-MARCH-2017

193

42271 41862
190

187

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-MARCH-17

137

133

129

128

125

124

121

117

113

COPPER

28-APR-2017

424

410

396

388

382

374

368

354

340

CRUDE OIL

20-MARCH-17

3580

3441

3302

3222

3163

3083

3024

2885

2746

GOLD

05-APR-2017

30379

29823

29267

29030

28711

28474

28155

27599

27043

LEAD

31-MARCH-2017

182

172

162

157

152

147

142

132

122

NATURAL GAS

28-MARCH-2017

233

221

209

205

197

193

185

173

161

NICKEL

31-MARCH-2017

739

710

681

662

652

633

623

594

565

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

44023

43110

42197

41864

41284

40951

40371

39458

38545

ZINC

31-MARCH-2017

203

197

191

187

185

181

179

173

167

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

65.70

65.50

65.40

65.25

64.84

64.75

64.63

64.15

64.00

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

71.22

70.58

70.22

69.62

69.48

69.27

68.96

68.54

68.22

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

86.18

84.52

82.45

81.03

79.55

79.05

78.88

78.22

77.14

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

62.14

61.45

60.74

59.16

58.88

57.74

56.29

55.63

53.87

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

68.58

67.42

66.54

66.03

64.82

64.23

62.96

61.52

60.78

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

76.12

75.18

74.13

72.35

71.31

69.52

68.48

66.70

65.84

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

91.72

90.01

89.36

88.22

86.85

84.92

83.57

82.65

80.44

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

66.48

65.58

64.32

62.44

60.77

58.26

56.34

54.61

52.08

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-MAR-2017

SYBEANIDR

20-MAR-2017

RMSEED

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

659

652

647

645

640

638

631

624

3115

3046

2977

2935

2908

2866

2839

2770

2701

20-MAR-2017

4258

4165

4072

4014

3979

3921

3886

3793

3700

JEERAUNJHA

20-MAR-2017

20175

19480

18785

18360

18090

17665

17395

16700

16005

GUARSEED10

20-MAR-2017

4151

4062

3973

3918

3884

3829

3795

3706

3617

TMC

20-MAR-2017

7101

6869

6637

6495

6405

6263

6173

5941

5709

666

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-MAR-2017

696

680

664

653

648

637

632

616

600

SYBEANIDR

20-MAR-2017

3277

3150

3023

2958

2896

2831

2769

2642

2515

RMSEED

20-MAR-2017

4464

4295

4124

4039

3954

3869

3784

3614

3444

JEERAUNJHA

20-MAR-2017

22748

21088

19428

18682

17768

17022

16108

14448

12788

GUARSEED10

20-MAR-2017

4295

4152

4009

3936

3866

3793

3723

3580

3437

TMC

20-MAR-2017

7352

7026

6700

6526

6374

6200

6048

5722

5396

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices retraced gains late Friday but still notched up a second weekly rise as concerns over the Trump
administration’s ability to push through its pro-growth economic agenda underpinned safe haven demand.
Gold for April delivery settled down 0.34% at $ 1,243.00 on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange, off session highs of $ 1,251.85. Gold touched its highest since February 28 on
Thursday, at $ 1,253.15 and ended the week with a gain of 1.07%. Prices of the precious metal turned lower
as the dollar steadied after Republican leaders dropped legislation to replace the Affordable Care Act before
a planned vote in the House of Representatives, after it failed to gather enough support to pass. Investors
viewed the Trump administration's failure to push through a healthcare overhaul as a sign he may also face
further setbacks delivering on other policy pledges including corporate tax cuts, regulatory reform and
infrastructure spending. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a tradeweighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 99.59 in late trade. The index dipped to 99.36
earlier in the session, an almost four month low. A strong U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens
the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders
of other currencies. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was at $17.78 a troy ounce late Friday, and
ended the week up 2.11%.
Copper was at $2.64 a pound and ended the week down 1.42%.In the week ahead, investors will be
continuing to monitor political developments in the U.S., as Trump’s promised tax reforms come into focus.
Expectations that the Trump administration would spur growth and inflation through fiscal stimulus pushed
the dollar to 14-year highs in the weeks after the election. But the greenback has weakened in recent week as
it became apparent that the White House would have difficulty in delivering on its legislative agenda.
Market watchers will also be watching U.S. economic reports, including figures on personal income and
spending and appearances by a number of Fed officials.Gold rose on Friday, notching its second straight
week of gains as concern about the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to push legislation through
Congress pressured the dollar, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. The dollar remained
near seven-week lows against a basket of currencies .DXY ahead of a vote on a healthcare bill, formally
called the American Health Care Act. Gold, seen as a safe haven asset, has benefited from falls in the dollar,
U.S. bond yields and stocks this week as Trump's difficulty in passing healthcare reform has undermined
faith that he can deliver on promises of tax cuts and investment. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.2 at $ 1,247.66
an ounce by 2:10 p.m. EDT. The metal has risen 1.6 percent this week and on Thursday touched $ 1,253.12,
its highest since Feb. 28. It rose nearly 2 percent a week earlier. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled at $
1,248.50 an ounce. Trump has set up a showdown with lawmakers by demanding support for the healthcare
bill in a vote on Friday afternoon. seems to have done a little bit better as the day wore on as it's becoming
pretty sure that this bill is not gonna pass ... That's a driving force all the way across," Bullard said on Friday

that just one more rate hike this year would be appropriate following a rise earlier this month, but that he
would not fight a second one. Dudley said that "delicate" policy changes were necessary. did not address
monetary policy or the economic outlook in Washington. XAG= was up 1 percent at $17.91 an ounce.
Platinum XPT= was 0.6 percent higher at $964.50 an ounce.
An uptick in prices kept a lid on demand for gold in most regions across Asia this week, while in India, an
upcoming festival saw jewellers stocking up on the metal. The spot gold international benchmark XAU= is
set for a second week of gains, with prices supported by uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald
Trump's economic policy and concerns over the outcome of elections in Europe.
"Demand has been sluggish this week, especially with gold prices in the $1,240 to $1,250 range. In top
consumer China, premiums fell to about $ 10 to $ 12 an ounce against the international benchmark XAU=
from levels over $ 20 last week. Traders attributed the drop in premiums to a rise in prices. Premiums in
China had risen last week as traders said supply of the precious metal was limited due to tightening import
restrictions to stem currency outflows. were quoted in a 70 cents to $1.20 range in Hong Kong, from the 70
cents to $ 1.10 an ounce level seen last week. In Singapore, premiums were seen slightly lower, within the
80 to 90 cents range, against $ 1.20 an ounce in the week before. In Japan, traders saw the precious metal at
a discount of 50 cents to a dollar, unchanged from last week, attributing it to the lack of any significant
move in local prices. Gold demand in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the metal, improved this
week despite a price rise as jewellers stocked up for a festival next week. "Due to Gudi Padwa festival,
sentiments have improved. Festival demand has been trickling in, In the local market, gold futures MAUc1
were trading around 28,700 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, up 1 percent from a week ago. "There is pent up
demand and the money squeeze due to demonetization has come to an end," The appreciation of the rupee to
the highest level in nearly 17 months has made the price rise in other markets less painful for Indian
consumers, a Mumbai based dealer with a private bank said. Asia Gold-High prices keep demand in check,
Indian jewellers stock up for festival.
Gold prices slipped lower on Friday, as the U.S. dollar regained some strength ahead of a highly-anticipated
vote on U.S. President Donald Trump’s healthcare bill. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were down 0.28% at $ 1,243.85, just off the previous session’s
three-week high of $ 1.253,15. The April contract ended Thursday’s session 0.20% lower at $ 1,247.20 an
ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $ 1,226.40, the low of March 23 and resistance at $ 1,253,15,
Thursday’s high. The dollar regained some strength as the vote on the U.S. administration’s healthcare bill
was postponed on Thursday and rescheduled for Friday. Trump warned House Republican lawmakers that
he will leave Obamacare in place and move on to tax reform if they do not approve new legislation on
Friday. The healthcare vote is seen by investors as a test of his ability to implement key campaign promises
such as tax reform and infrastructure spending. Market participants were looking ahead to a string of
manufacturing and service sector activity data from the euro zone, due later in the day as well as U.S. data
on durable goods orders. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery were little changed at
$ 17.589 a troy ounce, while copper futures for May delivery fell 0.25% to $ 2.638 a pound.

Gold slipped on Thursday as the dollar firmed, while palladium extended gains to hit a two-year high on
economic data and demand from the automobile sector. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.3 percent at $1,245.26
an ounce by 2:21 p.m. EDT, retreating from an intraday peak of $1,253.12, its highest since Feb. 28. U.S.
gold futures GCcv1 shed 0.3 percent to $ 1,246.60. "The dollar has been a little bit stronger, interest rates
climbed up a touch and the stock market finally gave a positive performance prior to tonight's vote on
healthcare - all of which means gold traders have pulled back a little. The dollar index .DXY , Which
measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was slightly firmer at 99.769. It had dropped to its
lowest in nearly seven weeks at 99.547 on Wednesday. U.S. stocks rose slightly on Thursday, with gains
limited by signs that President Donald Trump was struggling to get enough votes to pass a healthcare bill in
Congress, while European shares rose on bank borrowing and oil prices slipped. The immediate focus is on
whether Trump can gather enough support to pass a bill to roll back Obamacare, representing a major test of
his legislative ability and whether he can keep his promises to business. rough ride for the healthcare plan
could affect Trump's efforts to cut taxes and boost infrastructure, with the potential to drive more investors
to gold as a safe haven if stock markets fall. The dollar briefly slipped on Thursday after U.S. jobless claims
rose unexpectedly, sending gold temporarily higher
Gold prices edged lower during European morning hours on Thursday, pulling back from the prior session's
three-week high as markets looked ahead to a key health care vote in Congress later in the day. Comex gold
futures dipped $ 2.65, or around 0.2%, to $ 1,247.05 a troy ounce by 4:10AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was
down $ 2.15 at $ 1,246.80.
Gold settled higher for the fifth session in a row on Wednesday after touching its strongest level since
February 28 at $1,251.50 as growing doubts about U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-growth economic
agenda prompted investors to dump risky assets and rush to safe havens. Headlines from Washington will
continue to be in focus, as the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on repealing and replacing
the Affordable Care Act on Thursday, with the votes needed for passage in doubt. Trump was to meet at the
White House with members of the Freedom Caucus on Thursday at 11:30 AM ET, the White House said.
The Freedom Caucus, a key group of House Republicans, has threatened to vote against the Obamacare
replacement bill, unless the language in the bill changes dramatically. Investors see the Trump
administration's struggles to push through the healthcare overhaul as a sign he may also face setbacks
delivering on the promises for tax cuts, regulatory reform and infrastructure spending.
Gold climbed to a three-week high on Wednesday as the dollar fell to seven-week lows and bond yields
sank on uncertainty over the economic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Spot gold XAU= was up
0.4 percent at $ 1,249.98 an ounce by 2:43 p.m. EDT , close to the session high of $1,251.26, the highest
since Feb. 28. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.3 percent at $ 1,249.70. Trump and Republican
congressional leaders appeared to be losing the battle to get enough support to pass their Obamacare
rollback bill. Mark Meadows, who heads the conservative House Freedom Caucus, said his group had more
than enough members to stop the bill from passing. current House Republican rollback plan is scheduled for
a floor vote on Thursday. "This could keep the Fed more measured regarding the pace of rate hikes, which

has seen yields, U.S. dollar, and equities fall off while gold rallies." A lack of concrete policy from the
Trump administration is increasing gold's attraction as a safe-haven investment. Gold was supported by a
further drop in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield US10YT=RJR dipping to the lowest
since Feb. 28. Gold has rallied around $ 50 from last Wednesday's low and clocked its longest winning
streak since early January after a less hawkish tone on interest rates in the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest
policy statement last week. The repositioning of investors since the Fed meeting continues unabated, with
investors becoming less bearish as a result of the subdued outlook for rates in 2018," Holdings of SPDR
Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.5 percent to 834.40 tonnes
on Tuesday after three sessions of outflows. The gold market shrugged off what police called a terrorist
incident in London. other precious metals, spot silver XAG= turned up 0.06 percent at $17.51 an ounce,
while platinum XPT= fell 0.8 percent at $ 959.
Gold prices rose to a three-week high during European morning hours on Wednesday, as growing doubts
about U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-growth economic agenda prompted investors to dump risky assets
and rush to safe havens. Comex gold futures reached a session peak of $ 1,249.05 a troy ounce, the highest
since February 28. It was last at $ 1,247.00 by 4:20AM ET, up 50 cents, or less than 0.1%. It settled higher
for the fourth session in a row on Tuesday, as risk-averse investors sought safer investments amid a weak
dollar and as U.S. equities tumbled on doubts over the implementation of President Trump's economic
agenda. Meanwhile, spot gold was up $ 3.95 at $ 1,248.55 per ounce. Headlines from Washington will
continue to be in focus, as House Republicans are expected to vote on repealing and replacing the
Affordable Care Act on Thursday. The Freedom Caucus, a key group of House Republicans, threatened to
issue a formal statement of opposition to the Obamacare replacement bill, which would delay the vote,
unless the language in the bill changes dramatically. Appetite for riskier assets took a hit on concerns the
House will not have enough votes to repeal and replace the healthcare bill, triggering worry that more of the
Trump Administration's pro-growth policies could be delayed or derailed in Congress.
Gold rallied to the highest level in nearly three weeks on Tuesday after a strong debate performance from
French centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and as fading expectations for near-term U.S.
interest rate hikes pushed the dollar lower. The U.S. dollar index .DXY fell to a six-week low while 10-year
Treasury yields and U.S. and European shares also dropped, helping to bolster gold. Spot gold XAU= was
up 0.9 percent at $ 1,244.48 an ounce by 2:50 p.m. EDT, just off the session high of $ 1,247.60, its highest
level since March 2. U.S. gold futures GCv1 for April delivery settled up 1 percent at $ 1,246.50. "We're
back down below 100 on the dollar index, and that is tied in with the less aggressive rate hike expectations
that we heard last week from the Fed,"
The Fed's policy statement last Wednesday was less hawkish than expected, dampening speculation that the
U.S. central bank would raise interest rates quickly this year. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates,
because they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in
which it is priced. Gold fell in the run-up to the Fed's rate hike last week, with hedge funds and money
managers sharply cut their net long position in COMEX gold futures. funds totally missed the boat ... which

means they could run right back in here. "There are a number of things going on politically that are going to
keep the market nervous." The euro EUR= rallied after Macron cemented his position as the front-runner in
the French presidential race in the first televised debate on Monday versus anti-European Union contender
Marine Le Pen. prices were also underpinned by uncertainty over President Donald Trump's policy
direction. "The previous two hikes marked cycle lows for gold, and European election uncertainty, U.S.
President Trump's foreign policies, as well as seasonal demand in India materializing in April are likely to
make Q2 the strongest quarter for gold prices this year. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange traded
fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares GLD , declined for a third straight day on Monday. Meanwhile,
data from the Swiss customs bureau showed Hong Kong's net gold exports to Switzerland hit their highest
level in February since records began five years ago. XAG= was up 0.7 percent at $ 17.53 an ounce, while
platinum XPT= was 0.1 percent lower at $ 966.24. Palladium XPD= was up 0.6 percent at $ 784, after rising
to its highest level in more than a month at $ 792.90 an ounce.
It's not unusual for a financial market to be pulled in different directions simultaneously by competing
influences, but what is notable for gold currently is the apparent inability of the contradictory factors to gain
momentum. History and logic suggest that when the United States starts a monetary tightening cycle, gold
will underperform, since as a Non-yielding asset it loses out to instruments that will enjoy higher yields
from the rising rates. The Federal Reserve lifted interest rates on March 15 for the second time in three
months, with expectations that it will raise at least twice more this year and perhaps three times in 2018. But
spot gold XAU= didn't drop when the Fed pulled the rates lever, gaining 1.7 percent the day of the increase,
and closing at $ 1,233.15 an ounce on Monday, up almost 3 percent since the day before the Fed move and
9.9 percent since the recent low in mid-December. So, why is the gold market being sanguine about rising
U.S. interest rates?, Part of the answer may be that investors are taking a view that the rise in real yields may
not be as dramatic given U.S. inflation is also on an upward trend. There also may be a U.S. dollar effect,
with analysts noting that it's likely that the greenback has already seen the bulk of its rally in this tightening
cycle. "In the current cycle, the broad U.S. dollar has so far appreciated by 22 percent, and we see the dollar
rallying another 2 percent higher into midyear before retracing to current levels by the first quarter of 2018.
"In short, the lion's share of this cycle's U.S. dollar appreciation could potentially be behind us," the analyst
said. Rising U.S. inflation and a peak in U.S. dollar strength may mean that the traditional impact of a U.S.
monetary tightening cycle may be less than usual. What the gold market is currently signalling is that while
U.S. interest rate rises are still a bit of a headwind, they may not be enough to offset some compelling
tailwinds.

INDIA IS GOLD'S BEST HOPE
The main boost to gold prices in 2017 may well come from India, formerly the world's top consumer of the
precious metal. Indian gold demand was pummelled in 2016, falling 21 percent to 675.5 tonnes from 857.2
tonnes the prior year, the biggest yearly decline in volume terms recorded by the World Gold Council. One
of the main factors driving the slump was the government's ongoing efforts to attack the informal economy,

culminating in the removal of high denomination 500 and 1,000 rupee notes in November, a demonetisation
that effectively removed some 86 percent of bank notes by value. In an economy where most transactions
are still cash, the impact was to crimp retail gold demand as liquidity dried up. But there are positive signs
that India is recovering, with imports jumping to 50 tonnes in February, up more than 82 percent from the
same month in 2016, according to data provided by GFMS. some of this was likely due to what GFMS
called the release of pent-up demand, it's also possible that stronger economic conditions will lift Indian
demand for jewellery, the main driver of that market. While India is looking more positive for gold, it's
worth noting that China, the world's largest buyer, is less constructive, with soft jewellery demand and the
lack of a clear price trend deterring investment appetite. It's likely that the best-case scenario for China this
year is one of steady demand, with the main X-factor being the value of the yuan, as a depreciating local
currency may spur Chinese investor appetite for gold as a hedge. Another potential positive for gold is the
usual suspect of geopolitical risk, although if elections in France and Germany follow the recent Dutch vote,
where anti- European populists did less well than expected, it may not add much to gold demand from a risk
perspective. Overall, it appears there is no clear price trend for gold, and looking at a cross-section of
forecasts from analysts shows hat those who are bearish are only mildly so, while those bullish are also
expecting modest gains at best. While the ebb and flow of news events will drive daily price movements in
gold, it would appear that a driver to move the price away from the $ 1,100 to $ 1,300 an ounce range is
lacking.
Gold prices edged higher to a two-week peak on Monday as the dollar slid to a six-week low after a G20
weekend summit dominated by the U.S. administration's protectionist stance. The precious metal has been
rising since Wednesday, when the dollar dropped after the Federal Reserve raised U.S. interest rates but
stopped short of predicting a sharper acceleration in monetary tightening over the next two years. The dollar
fell to a six-week low before recovering to trade 0.1 percent higher .DXY against a basket of currencies.
Gold is sensitive to falling interest rates, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
"We think gold prices are going to continue to rally and the target to the upside is $1,250. "We don't
anticipate that the Fed will be so aggressive on raising rates. and there's a lot of uncertainty with Brexit
becoming official later on in the month and there's a lot of questions circulating around Russia. Markets had
been volatile as FBI Director James Comey spoke on Monday, confirming the agency was investigating
possible Russian government efforts to interfere in the 2016 U.S. election including any links between
President Donald Trump's campaign and Moscow. gold XAU= rose 0.44 percent to $ 1,233.92 an ounce by
2:14 EDT, after touching $ 1,235.50, its highest since March 6. The US gold Future GCcv1 gained 0.3
percent to settle at $ 1,234.00. Breaking a decade-long tradition of endorsing open trade, G20 finance
ministers and central bankers made only a token reference to trade at the weekend, acquiescing to an
increasingly protectionist United States. Markets balked at the move which soured risk appetite, pressuring
stocks, the dollar and oil and driving investors into safe-haven gold. The precious metal has rebounded more
than $ 35 from the low hit before the Fed policy announcement last Wednesday, while the dollar has fallen
1.7 percent. "The dovish outlook . following last Wednesday's Fed meeting is clearly still having an impact.
This is likely to lure a number of speculative financial investors back into gold after this group massively

reduced their net long positions in the run-up to the meeting. Money managers reduced their net long, or
buy, positions in gold by 44,058 lots to 49,835 lots during the week to March 14, the lowest since early
January. Spot Gold is expected to test resistance at $ 1,237, a break above which could lead to gains to $
1,243. the bullish gold narrative, holdings of SPDR Gold GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, fell 0.35 percent to 834.10 tonnes on Friday. Silver XAG= rose 0.3 percent to $ 17.37 an ounce,
while platinum XPT= was up 1.2 percent at $ 969.70 and palladium XPD= firmed by 1.1 percent to $
781.20.
Gold prices rose to a two-week high during European morning hours on Monday, as the U.S. dollar headed
for its longest losing streak since November in wake of the Federal Reserve's dovish guidance on the path of
rate hikes this year. Comex gold futures jumped to a session peak of $ 1,235.50 a troy ounce, the highest
since March 6. It was last at $ 1,232.85 by 4:15AM ET, up $ 2.65, or around 0.2%. Meanwhile, spot gold
was up $ 3.70 at $ 1,233.15 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength
against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down around 0.2% at 99.94 in London morning
trade. It fell to 99.86 earlier, the lowest since February 6. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last
week in a widely-expected move, but stuck to its projection for two more hikes this year. Heading into the
meeting, markets had braced for a potentially more hawkish tone from the Fed. The precious metal is
sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding Non-Yielding Assets such as
bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of
increases. Market players will focus on a handful of Fed speakers in the week ahead, including Chair Janet
Yellen on Thursday, as they look for more clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. Monday sees
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speak about current economic conditions and monetary policy at the
National Association for Business Economics luncheon in New York. Traders will also keep an eye out on
U.S. housing data to gauge if a recent increase in consumer spending and inflation is translating into higher
home prices and a pick-up in home sales. Headlines from Washington will also be in focus, as traders await
further details on President Donald Trump's promises of tax reform and infrastructure spending. The House
is expected to vote on a heath care bill Thursday, and if it passes that would be seen as a small step moving
Congress closer to considering tax reform, though any legislation must also battle its way through the
Senate. Also on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery held steady at $ 17.40 a troy ounce. Meanwhile,
platinum added 0.3% to $ 966.25, while palladium held firm at $ 776.12 an ounce. Elsewhere in metals
trading, copper futures dipped 0.9 cents, or 0.3%, to $ 2.683 a pound.

The significant events Ahead likely to affect the markets.
Monday, March 27
The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are both
to speak.

Tuesday, March 28
The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is to speak.

Wednesday, March 29
The UK is to publish data on net lending.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak.
The U.S. is to release a report on pending homes sales.

Thursday, March 30
In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on inflation.
Canada is to publish figures on raw material price inflation.
The U.S. is to release revised data on fourth quarter growth along with the weekly report on initial jobless
claims.

Friday, March 31
Japan is to publish data on household spending and inflation.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.
China is to release its official manufacturing and services PMI’s.
Germany is to release figures on retail sales and unemployment change. Meanwhile, the euro zone is to
publish preliminary data on inflation.
The UK is to report on the current account and release revised data on fourth quarter growth.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and spending, a report on manufacturing
activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

✍ ENERGY
Oil prices dipped on Monday as rising U.S. drilling activity outweighed talks that an OPEC-led production

cut initially due to end in mid-2017 may be extended. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1 ,
the international benchmark for oil, eased 7 cents from their last close to $ 50.73 per barrel by 0145 GMT.
In the United States, West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 14 cents at $ 47.83 a barrel.
Traders said that prices received some support from talks over the weekend between the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, aimed at extending a production cut
beyond the middle of the year in order to prop up the market. and non-OPEC decided to get ahead of the
game this weekend, announcing they are reviewing whether the output curb deal should be extended," But
the OPEC-led cuts were offset by rising drilling activity and oil production in the United States, which
traders said contributed to financial traders reducing their long positions in crude futures to the lowest level
since early December. U.S. oil rig count continued its surge . Since its trough on May 27, 2016, producers
have added 336 oil rigs in the U.S.," The U.S. bank said that should the rig count stay at the current levels
and the impact of a backlog of previously closed rigs returning to production was considered, then U.S. oil
production would rise by 235,000 bpd between the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first half of 2017. Since
mid-2016, U.S. oil production has risen by 700,000 bpd, or 8.3 percent, to 9.13 million bpd, government
data shows.
Oil futures settled higher on Friday, but posted a weekly loss of around 2% as the market weighed rising
shale production and record-high stockpiles in the U.S. against efforts by major producers to cut output to
reduce a global glut. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude May contract inched up 27 cents, or around
0.6%, to $ 47.97 a barrel by close of trade Friday, snapping a four-session losing streak. It touched $ 47.01
on Wednesday, a level not seen since November 30. For the week, the U.S. benchmark declined 81 cents, or
around 1.7%, the third weekly loss in a month. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent
oil for May delivery tacked on 24 cents to settle at $50.80 a barrel by close of trade. The global benchmark
hit $ 49.71 on Wednesday, its cheapest since November 30. London-traded Brent futures logged a drop of
96 cents, or about 1.9%, on the week.Data from oilfield services provider Baker Hughes on Friday revealed
that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by 21 last week, the tenth weekly increase in a row.
That brought the total count to 652, the most since September 2015. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy
Information Administration said on Wednesday that crude oil inventories rose by 5.0 million barrels last
week to an all-time high of 533.1 million, feeding concerns about a global glut. Oil has fallen sharply this
month amid concern that the ongoing rebound in U.S. shale production could derail efforts by other major
producers to rebalance global oil supply and demand. OPEC agreed in November last year to curb its output
by about 1.2 million barrels per day between January and June. Russia and 10 other non-OPEC producers
have agreed to jointly cut by an additional 600,000 barrels per day. In total, they agreed to reduce output by
1.8 million barrels per day to 32.5 million for the first six months of the year, but so far the move has had
little impact on inventory levels. OPEC's latest monthly report showed global oil stocks in January rose to
278 million barrels above the five-year average. OPEC members increasingly favor extending the output
curb beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said, although they added that this would
require non-OPEC members such as Russia to also step up their efforts. Kuwait is scheduled to host a
ministerial meeting on Sunday comprising representatives from Algeria, Venezuela, and non-OPEC nations

Russia and Oman to review compliance with the output agreement and to discuss whether cuts would be
extended beyond June. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for April inched up 1.5 cents, or about 1% to
$ 1.604 on Friday. It ended up around 0.4% for the week.
Oil was higher Friday but global supply glut concerns persisted.U.S. crude was up 33 cents, or 0.69%, at $
48.03 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude added 25 cents, or 0.49%, to $ 50.81. Market volatility has been marked by
the merits of compliance with output cuts by major producers set aside higher U.S. inventories and supply.
U.S. crude inventories currently stand at a record 533.1 million barrels. The rig count data are due out later
in the session. The market received some support from a report Saudi Arabia is expected to reduce oil
shipments to the U.S. this month. OPEC and Non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million
barrels a day in the first half. The adherents to the agreement are due to meet this weekend in Kuwait to
discuss compliance with the cuts. No decision on an extension of the accord beyond June is expected until
May. Despite Friday's bounce back, oil remained on track for its third straight weekly loss.
Oil prices edged up on Friday, Supported by a fall in Saudi exports to the United States, but overall markets
remained under pressure on the back of a world market awash with fuel. Prices for front-month Brent crude
futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, were at $ 50.66 per barrel at 0027 GMT, up 10 cents
from their last close. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were up 12 cents at
$ 47.82 a barrel. Traders said the slight lift in prices came as a report that Saudi Arabia's crude exports to the
United States in March would fall by around 300,000 barrels per day from February, in line with OPEC's
agreement to reduce supply. United States imported about 1.3 million bpd of Saudi oil in February,
according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. In the United States, overseas oil suppliers like
Saudi Arabia have to compete against rising shale drilling, which has pushed up U.S. oil production by over
8 percent since mid-2016 to more than 9.1 million bpd. To other major consumer regions, however, Saudi
exports remain high despite an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and
supported by other producers including Russia, to cut output by almost 1.8 million bpd during the first half
of the year to rein in a global supply glut. Ship chartering and trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows
that OPEC shipments to Asia, the world's biggest and fastest growing oil consuming region, were at 17.6
million bpd in March, up over 5 percent since January, when the cuts officially started, in a sign that OPEC
is shielding its main customers from the supply reductions. Unless OPEC extends the curbs beyond June or
makes bigger supply reductions, traders say oil prices are at risk of falling further. "The market is keen to
see further progress on production cuts to alleviate the still growing stockpiles,"
Oil rebounded Thursday but a build-up in U.S. crude stocks continued to overhang the market. U.S. crude
was up 19 cents, or 0.40%, at $ 48.23 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude added 23 cents, or 0.45%, to $ 50.87.
The Energy Information Administration Wednesday reported a rise in U.S. crude inventories of almost five
million barrels to a record 533.1 million. Brent crude seems to have found technical support at $50 a barrel
as investors renewed some long positions. Higher U.S. supply and inventories are undermining the impact of
output cuts by major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers have agreed to cut output by 1.8 million
barrels a day in the first half. The focus now turns to Baker Hughes rig count data due out on Friday.

Oil prices climbed off four-month lows on Thursday but the recovery was cautious with investors fretting
that OPEC-led supply cuts were not yet reducing record U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude LCOc1 , the
international benchmark for oil, was trading at $ 50.84 a barrel by 0915 GMT, up 20 cents on the day and
rebounding from Wednesday's slide to $ 49.71, it lowest level since Nov. 30 when OPEC announced plans
to cut output. U.S. light crude CLc1 was up 20 cents at $ 48.24. Brent remains well below this year's high
above $58, hit shortly after Jan. 1 when the deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries and non-OPEC states to curb supplies by 1.8 million barrels per day came into effect. Global
stockpiles have continued rising since then. On Wednesday, data from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showed U.S. inventories jumped by a bigger- than-expected 5 million barrels last week to
533.1 million. While OPEC has broadly met its commitments to reduce output, non-OPEC producers have
yet to fully deliver on pledged cuts and U.S. shale oil producers have been pumping more oil after crude
prices recovered from last year's drop below $30. OPEC was "underwriting the investment plans and returns
of their competition in U.S. shale oil". Oil prices could fall further due to U.S. output and a lack of
compliance by some producers who said they would cut. London-based Barclays bank offered a more
upbeat assessment, saying the latest oil price weakness would not last into the second quarter. The bank
forecast a modest recovery. "We see a rebound to the high $ 50 and $60 range in Q2 as inventories draw and
the market readies for the peak driving and demand season," Inventories held by industrialised nations
would be eroded by the end of the second quarter, sliding to OPEC's target level of the five-year average.
Oil prices recovered on Thursday from losses chalked up the session before, but the market remained under
pressure as bloated U.S. crude inventories and rising output dampen OPEC-led efforts to curb global
production. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, were at $ 50.82 per barrel at
0807 GMT, up 18 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close. That came after Brent briefly dipped below
$50 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since November. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1
were up 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $ 48.23 a barrel, after testing support at $ 47 overnight. Brent had found
technical support around $50 a barrel and was being pushed up as traders took new long positions after
falling to multi-month lows overnight. the bounce, The market remained under pressure, largely due to
record U.S. crude inventories and doubts that an effort led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries to cut output was reining in a global fuel supply overhang. OPEC was "underwriting the
investment plans and returns of their competition in U.S. shale oil."
Oil prices slipped back towards three-month lows on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories
rising faster than expected, piling pressure on OPEC to extend output cuts beyond June. A deal between the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers to reduce output by 1.8
million barrels per day in the first half of 2017 has had little impact on bulging global stockpiles of oil.
Brent crude LCOc1 , the international benchmark, fell 35 cents to $50.61 per barrel by 0907 GMT, heading
back to its lowest level since OPEC announced on Nov. 30 its plan for cuts. The deal with non-OPEC states
was reached in December. U.S. light crude CLc1 was down 35 cents at $ 47.89 a barrel, also heading back
towards a three-month low. "The lower the price goes, the higher the pressure on OPEC to extend cuts.

Sources have said OPEC is inclined to extend but wants backing from non-OPEC producers, including
Russia, even though such countries have yet to deliver fully on existing cuts. On Tuesday, the American
Petroleum Institute reported U.S. inventories climbed by 4.5 million barrels to 533.6 million last week, a
bigger rise than the 2.8 million analysts forecast. now want to see whether Wednesday's figures from the
Energy Information Administration, a unit of the Department of Energy , confirm the rise. "A look below $
50 is quite possible today if DoE data show a similar pattern, but it's impossible to say how far below $ 50.
U.S. shale oil producers have been adding rigs, pushing up the country's oil production to about 9.1 million
bpd, from around 8.5 million bpd in late 2016. "OPEC's market intervention has not yet resulted in
significant visible inventory drawdowns, and the financial markets have lost patience. The bank said OPECled cuts would start having an impact in the second half of 2017, but added that U.S. crude production was
expected to grow by 360,000 bpd in 2017 and 1 million bpd in 2018. U.S. bank Goldman Sachs warned its
clients in a note this week that a U.S. shale-led production surge "could create a material oversupply in
2018-19.
Oil Wednesday extended overnight losses as industry data showed a build-up in U.S. crude stocks. U.S.
crude was off 65 cents, or 1.35%, at $ 47.59 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude shed 73 cents, or 1.43%, to $ 50.23.
American Petroleum Institute weekly data Tuesday showed an increase of 4.5 million barrels in U.S. crude
stocks to 533.6 million. Energy Information Administration figures are forecast to show a rise in crude
inventories of 2.8 million barrels. U.S. oil output has risen to 9.1 million barrels a day from 8.5 million in
June of last year. High inventories and the increase in U.S. production are undermining the impact of agreed
output cuts by major producers. OPEC and non-OPEC producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a
day in the first half.
Angolan state oil company Sonangol was working out its term allocations for May cargoes, traders said on
Monday, while ample supply was heard to be weighing on the value of Nigerian crude.

ANGOLA


The May loading programme emerged on Friday with 54 cargoes, or 1.67 million barrels per day, versus

53 in April.


The source said Unipec would take four cargoes on a term basis, Sinchem seven, Indian Oil Corporation

two and Petrogal one. Another source said term allocations were not fully worked out.


Sonangol is also showing some spot offers to the market, which include Dalia offered at dated Brent plus

10 cents -- a level one potential buyer said was on the high side.

NIGERIA


Nigerian Qua Iboe was heard to be on offer at about dated Brent plus $ 1.00, down 10 cents from offers

heard on Friday.


The narrowing contango in the Brent market has reduced the incentive to store barrels, weighing on

prompt values. Vitol last week sold a Qua cargo to Petroineos from storage in Saldanha Bay in South Africa, a
trader said.


Up to 20 cargoes from the April programme were still said to be available.

TENDERS


Shell , which traders said on Friday had probably won Indian Oil Company's latest buying tender, is likely

to be supplying 2 million barrels of Nigerian crude, a trader said on Monday.


Another Indian refiner HPCL is running a tender for first-half May-loading cargoes. The tender closes on

March 22.


Taiwan's CPC is running a buy tender for full-month May-loading crude. The tender closed on Monday.

Oil fell on Monday as investors continued to unwind bets on higher prices after record cuts last week because
of concerns that growing U.S. oil output could hamper an OPEC-led deal on production reductions. Benchmark
Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 31 cents at $ 51.45 a barrel by 1409 GMT. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures CLc1 fell by 52 cents to $ 48.26. Oil futures have retreated in the past two weeks as
a supply overhang driven by rising production from the United States overshadows a deal by OPEC and other
producers to rein in crude output. In the last week speculators cut more than 150,000 contracts betting on
firmer U.S. and Brent oil prices, a record high. U.S. drilling data supported estimates for higher production,
with 14 oil rigs added in the week to March 17 to 631, the most since September 2015, energy services
company Baker Hughes Inc BHI.N said on Friday. U.S. production is playing into concerns about the
effectiveness of the deal between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other
producers. The prospect of higher output from Libya, which is exempt from the deal, is adding further bearish
sentiment. Libya's National Oil Corporation said it was confident of regaining control of two key oil ports, Es
Sider and Ras Lanuf, which have combined capacity to export 600,000 barrels per day. selling from producers
and long-liquidation from funds is a bearish cocktail. An upgrade in supply estimates also led analysts at J.P.
Morgan to cut their 2017 and 2018 price forecasts. risks that OPEC has painted itself into a corner cannot be
ignored and it may need to extend, or even increase, cuts if the response from shale producers is more vigorous
than we currently model," they said in a report. In a further sign that key OPEC member Saudi Arabia was
adhering to its output cut pledges, official data showed that its crude exports fell by about 300,000 bpd in
January.
There has been talk of a possible extension of the six-month time frame of the OPEC-brokered output cut
agreement among major oil producers. OPEC agreed production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day at the end of

November, the first such accord in eight years. Non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, also agreed to contribute
cuts. But oil prices have fallen from the highs hit after the agreement was announced, with U.S. crude
struggling to hold onto $ 49 a barrel, levels last seen shortly after the deal was reached. The International
Energy Agency last week reported OPEC compliance with the cuts in the first two months of the year at 98%.
Non-OPEC compliance was estimated at only 37%. Analysts are questioning whether top OPEC producer
Saudi Arabia will agree to an extension if fellow producers are not delivering promised output cuts.
The IEA has estimated Saudi Arabia's compliance with cuts at 135%.
Saudi Arabia raised a few eyebrows in telling OPEC last week it had increased its output slightly in February
from January. Some observers interpreted the hike as a warning shot to other producers to comply with their
obligations.

Oil was lower Monday as U.S. drilling activity continued to pick up.
U.S. crude was off 58 cents, or 1.18%, at $ 48.73 at 08:00 ET. Brent crude shed 47 cents, or 0.91%, to $ 51.29.
Baker Hughes weekly data Friday showed a rise in the number of rigs operating in the U.S. of 14 to 631.
The was the highest number since September 2015. U.S. oil output has risen to 9.1 million barrels a day from
8.5 million in June of last year.
Higher U.S. production reduces the impact of agreed output cuts by major producers. OPEC and Non-OPEC
producers are cutting output by 1.8 million barrels a day in the first half. Investors have cut their long futures
and options positions.
Oil prices fell on Monday as rising U.S. drilling activity and steady supplies from OPEC countries despite
touted production cuts pressured already-bloated markets. Prices for front-month Brent crude futures LCOc1 ,
the international benchmark for oil, were 20 cents below their last settlement at 0025 GMT, at $ 51.56 per
barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 28 cents at $ 48.50 a barrel. Traders said that
prices were under pressure due to rising U.S. drilling activity and ongoing high supplies by the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries despite its pledge to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day
together with some other producers like Russia. oil has attempted to break out of the trading range that formed
last year ... However, this uptrend has stalled," futures brokerage CMC Markets said in a note on Monday.
"Now there is good, strong momentum to the downside." U.S. drillers added 14 oil rigs in the week to March
17, bringing the total count up to 631, the most since September 2015, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc
BHI.N said on Friday, extending a recovery that is expected to boost shale production by the most in sixmonths in April. As a result, U.S. oil output has risen to over 9.1 million bpd from below 8.5 million bpd in
June last year. Reacting to the ongoing glut in markets, financial oil traders cut their net long U.S. crude futures
and options positions in the week to March 14, the third consecutive cut, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission said on Friday. rising sentiment that oil markets remain oversupplied, some analysts say markets
will tighten soon, arguing that the OPEC-led cuts will only start to bite from April, just as demand picks up as

refineries return from current maintenance outages. "The cuts in OPEC production from the start of 2017
should start to show up between mid-March (now) and mid-April. Over the coming weeks we expect a sharp
reduction in imports and increase in refining runs which should lead to impressive crude inventory draws," The
combination of falling imports and stronger crude runs should lead to substantial inventory cuts over the
coming months. Oil prices drop on rise in U.S. drilling.
Oil prices rose early on Tuesday on expectations that an OPEC-led production cut to prop up the market could
be extended, and as strong demand was seen to slowly erode a global fuel supply overhang. Prices for frontmonth Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil, were at $ 51.76 per barrel at 0043
GMT, up 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 6
cents, or 0.1 percent, at $ 48.28 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, together with
other producers including Russia, has pledged to cut its output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day between
January and June in an effort to prop up prices and rein in a global supply glut that has dogged markets for
almost three years. Yet so far the cutback has not had the desired effect as compliance by involved exporters is
patchy and as other producers, including the United States, have stepped up to fill the gap, resulting in crude
prices falling more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year. halt the decline, OPEC members
increasingly favour extending the pact beyond June to balance the market, sources within the group said,
Although they added that this would require non-OPEC members like Russia to also step up their efforts. also
said that healthy oil demand would help rebalance markets and support prices. "Global demand for 2017 is
expected to remain healthy and surpass long-term average growth in demand of 1.2 million barrels per day by
between 0.2 and 0.4 million barrels per day. As such, the combination of robust demand and weaker global
supply leading to rebalanced markets will not be de-railed by U.S. shale oil. "support the case for a shift from
contango to backwardation in the crude markets during the second-half 2017." Contango describes a market
structure in which prices for future delivery of a product are higher than current ones, while backwardation is
price curve in which spot prices are more expensive than future deliveries. The Brent futures forward curve
0#LCO: currently shows a slight contango shape, in which prices for May delivery are 62 cents below those for
delivery in January 2018.

The significant events Ahead likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, March 28
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Wednesday, March 29
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is to release weekly data on oil and gasoline stockpiles.

Thursday, March 30
The U.S. government is to produce a weekly report on natural gas supplies in storage.
Friday, March 31
Baker Hughes will release weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
BASE METAL GUIDE Trading Ideas :
Nickel 

Nickel trading range for the day is 634-659.4.



Nickel prices dropped after update the Philippines' environment ministry has allowed eight suspended

nickel ore miners to ship out stockpiles of mined ore.


The volume of nickel ore stocks from the mines may well exceed 1 million tonnes, or about a month's

worth of consumption by top buyer China.


The global market for refined nickel started the year with a 1,100-tonne deficit in the month of January

due to robust demand growth from Asia and the Americas

Zinc


Zinc trading range for the day is 181.2-186.6.



Zinc gained as broader investor sentiment revived as disruptions piled up in the zinc market.



Commodity markets have soared since November on expectations Trump will increase spending on

infrastructure.


zinc output at its Quebec plant, was at 50-60 percent of normal operating levels as a five-and-a-half week

long strike dragged on.

Copper 

Copper trading range for the day is 376.7-385.5.



Copper dropped with striking union members agreeing to return to work at the world's top copper mine, in

Chile.


The strike at Chile's Escondida, is ending after workers decided to invoke a rarely used legal provision

that allows them to extend their old contract.


Copper stocks in LME approved warehouses have shot up 63 percent since March 2 to 312,525 tonnes

while on warrant inventories have doubled.

BASE METAL
COPPER ( 22-March - 2017 )
Copper prices are declining due to the easing of supply disruption concerns at the major mines. MCX
copper is currently trading at Rs.377 per kg and is at the lowest level since January, in line with falling
prices at the LME.

( 27 -March - 2017 )
Copper prices are declining due to the easing of supply disruption concerns at the major mines. MCX
copper is currently trading at Rs.377 per kg and is at the lowest level since January, in line with falling
prices at the LME. "Prime reason being recent comments by the workers union at Escondida, the world’s
biggest copper mine in Chile, that it was open to further conversation with the company, in turn giving way
to negotiations. Other major setback came from Freeport in Indonesia, which has resumed production of
copper concentrate at its giant Grasberg mine.

✍ BASE METALS

( 24- March - 2017 )

Base metals were in consolidation mode in quiet trading conditions on the morning of Thursday March 23
in what has been a choppy week on the London Metal Exchange so far. Base metals were in consolidation
mode in quiet trading conditions on the morning of Thursday March 23 in what has been a choppy week on
the London Metal Exchange so far. “Sentiment remains mildly bullish in that dips are being bought and
sellers are not too interested in chasing prices lower; instead, they seem prepared for prices to come to their
selling levels,” Refined copper imports to China fell 29% year-on-year to 233,800 tonnes in February,
according to customs data, while refined lead imports surged to 9,472 tonnes, their highest since July 2009,
Marex Spectron reported. Chine imports of zinc ore and concentrates fell 10% year-on-year to 181,800
tonnes last month and refined zinc imports declined 66% year-on-year to 15,000 tonnes, their lowest since
2010.

✍ ZINC

-(

23- March - 2017 )

Base metals were in consolidation mode in quiet trading conditions on the morning of Thursday March 23
in what has been a choppy week on the London Metal Exchange so far. Base metals were in consolidation
mode in quiet trading conditions on the morning of Thursday March 23 in what has been a choppy week on
the London Metal Exchange so far. “Sentiment remains mildly bullish in that dips are being bought and
sellers are not too interested in chasing prices lower; instead, they seem prepared for prices to come to their
selling levels,” Metal Bulletin analyst William Adams said. Refined copper imports to China fell 29% yearon-year to 233,800 tonnes in February, according to customs data, while refined lead imports surged to
9,472 tonnes, their highest since July 2009, Marex Spectron reported. Chine imports of zinc ore and
concentrates fell 10% year-on-year to 181,800 tonnes last month and refined zinc imports declined 66%
year-on-year to 15,000 tonnes, their lowest since 2010.

✍ ZINC
Zinc futures traded 0.70 per cent lower at Rs 184.55 per kg on Monday after speculators trimmed positions,
tracking a weak trend at the domestic spot market. In futures trading at Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc
for delivery in current month declined by Rs 1.30, or 0.70 per cent, to Rs 184.55 per kg. It clocked a
business turnover of 669 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in April softened by Rs 1.10, or 0.59
per cent, to Rs 185.15 per kg in 53 lots. Market analysts said weakness in zinc futures trade was mostly due
to a falling trend in select base metals owing to muted demand from consuming industries.

✍ NICKEL

( 22-March - 2017 )

Nickel prices were up by 0.81 per cent at Rs 672.10 per kg in futures trade as speculators enlarged their bets
on pick up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
nickel for delivery this month moved up by Rs 5.40, or 0.81 per cent, to Rs 672.10 per kg in a business
turnover of 887 lots. Also, the metal for delivery in April gained Rs 5.10, or 0.76 per cent to Rs 677.80 per
kg in 28 lots. Market analysts said besides pick-up in domestic demand from alloy-makers, a firm trend in
copper at the London Metal Exchange, influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF AGRI MARKET AGRI COMMODITY UPDATES -

✍ CASTOR SEED - ( 27 - March - 2017 )
Castor seed futures on National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange surged to two years high on
Wednesday, supported by forecasts of weaker output, slower arrivals in physical market and expectation of
good export demand for castor seed derivative products in coming months. Most active castor seed futures
for April delivery on the NCDEX rose 2.25 per cent to Rs. 4,740 a quintal at 16.00 hrs today, the biggest
daily gain this week. It will be the fourth consecutive weekly gain if the price continues to trade higher this
week too. Castor seed prices on NCDEX have jumped more than 23 per cent since it is re-launch in January
2017.
( 27- March - 2017 )
This week Jeera, turmeric and mustard seed witnessed upside in prices from the agri commodity basket.
Gold prices went up since the beginning of the week but it edged lower on Friday. Base metals have shown
a mixed trend in trading with copper prices slipping on easing of supply disruption concern. Jeera, went up
by 12% this week while turmeric went up by more than 5%. The hailstorm in Rajasthan and Madhya
Pradesh had pushed up mustard seed prices as there was a disruption in supply. "Traders covered the short
position in turmeric and jeera which resulted in a price rise," said Vinod T P, research analyst, Geofin
Comtrade. All these agri commodities are otherwise in a bearish mode as there is enough supply of them in
the market.

✍ SUGAR ( 20 - March - 2017 )
Sugar stocks gained by up to eight per cent on Friday, in anticipation of a further increase in price in the
coming months, following a forecast of lower production and the government’s reluctance on import. The
share price of Parrys Sugar jumped by nearly eight per cent to close on Friday at Rs66.95, followed by a
6.8 per cent increase in the stock of Oudh Sugar Mills to Rs140.30. The stocks of Dwarikesh Sugar,
Dhampur Sugar and Balrampur Chini rose by 4.6 per cent, 4.3 per cent and four per cent, respectively.
However, those of Bajaj Hindusthan and Shree Renuka Sugars remained stable, rising 0.7 per cent and 0.3
per cent. “The government has been watchful on a sugar price increase. Hence, a big price rise is unlikely
this year but a Rs2 a kg rise cannot be ruled out in the coming months,” said an analyst with a global
stockbroking company, on request of anonymity. Sugar prices have been rising intermittently since the
beginning of the current season in October, over lower output estimates. The benchmark price of the
medium variety has risen by 7.3 per cent to trade currently at Rs41.16 a kg at the wholesale market in
Vashi, Navi Mumbai, a slight decline after a high of Rs41.55 a kg on February 13.

✍ SUGAR ( 22 - March - 2017 )
Even with a drastic reduction in cane planting area, sugar supply has always been in excess of market
demand, according to cane scientists. This possibly could be the reason for the lack of focus on sugarcanerelated research — the focus is more on pulses and other agricultural commodities, they point out. Indian
sugarcane varieties are at present cultivated in over 28 countries, “the only crop from India that is cultivated
elsewhere.” Scientists say they have been working aggressively on new varietal releases. One such
initiative is the “Sweet Bloom” project in Tamil Nadu. The South India Sugar Mills’ Association launched
the industry-institute project in October 2016.
✍ TURMERIC ( 22-March - 2017 )
Demand for new turmeric increased. Traders expect the prevailing turmeric price to be maintained for a few
more days. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, finger turmeric sold at ₹ 5,689-8,515
a quintal, while the root variety sold at ₹ 5,506-7,625. At the Regulated Marketing Committee, finger
turmeric sold at ₹ 6,449-7,786 a quintal and the root variety at ₹ 6,139-6,669. At the Erode Cooperative
Marketing Society finger turmeric sold at ₹ 7,256-8,169 and the root variety at ₹ 6,399-6,955.

✍ EDIBLE OILS ( 22 - March - 2017 )
Mix trend prevailed in edible oils on back of weak futures amid slack physical demand. On BCE groundnut
and soya oil declined by ₹10 and ₹1 each. Rapeseed and cotton oil rose by ₹10 and ₹1 each. During the
day about 350-400 tonnes of palmolein bought by traders in the range of ₹574 -580. Liberty’s rates for
Palmolein Ex STC/Shapur were ₹585/586 for March. Super palmolein at ₹606 and Soyabean refined oil ex
Shapur ₹650 for March. Ruchi’s rate for Soyabean refined oil ₹652.50 for up to 10 Apr. and Sunflower oil
₹665 up to 30 April.

✍ PALM OIL ( 22-March - 2017 )
Malaysian palm oil futures declined on Monday after the release of weaker export data, while March output
is expected to improve from a month ago. CPO active month June futures pulled back higher from recent
lows. As mentioned before, a break below 2,820 MYR/tonne on the active third-month contract triggered a
wave of selling in CPO futures and it will act as a strong resistance barrier in the coming sessions.
✍ PALM OIL ( 23 - March - 2017)
Malaysian palm oil closed higher and Chicago soya oil projection was firm but domestic soya oil futures on
the NCDEX remained weak on lack of demand. On the BCE, soya and cotton oil declined by ₹ 7 and ₹ 1
each. Groundnut oil gained by ₹ 10. The others were steady. During the day, 350-400 tonnes palmolein sold
at ₹ 578 for March, Allana and Golden agri together sold about 850-900 tonnes of palmolein at ₹575-577
and resellers offloaded about 200-250 tonnes palmolein at ₹574-578. Liberty’s rates for Palmolein exSTC/Shapur were ₹578/579 for March. Super palmolein stood at ₹599.

✍ COTTON - ( 23 - March - 2017 )
Indian textile mills are increasingly seeking to buy overseas cotton, which yields better yarn, as a persistent
rise in prices of domestic output makes local fibre commercially unviable. The cost advantage of local
cotton has disappeared after prices rose steadily until March, prompting mills to sign import contracts. The
move is both a reaction to trends this year and an insurance against price fluctuations in the last, when mills
had to deal with an increase. Everyone will take advantage of the price situation mainly for good quality
yarn. Last year, there was also a sudden increase in prices post-May , and that is why mills wants to cover
their requirement now itself,“ said M Senthilkumar, chairman of the South Indian Millers Association.
“With very little gap in domestic and international prices, imported cotton now looks attractive to millers
for its better yarn quality. Cotton prices in India have trended higher since the beginning of the season. The
benchmark Sankar-6 prices, at Rs 38,000-39,000 per candy of 355 kg at the beginning of the season,
increased by about 15% to Rs 44,000 per candy.

✍ JEERA - ( 24- March - 2017 )
Jeera prices have firmed up with strong export demand and a likely shortfall in production. Futures prices
have jumped by 8% in a month on National Commodities and Derivative Exchange. It hit the upper circuit
and closed at a two-month high on Thursday, when futures for April delivery rose 3.98% to . 179.05 per kg.
On Friday, April futures closed at Rs 179.85 per kg. With harvest getting over in the main growing areas of
Gujarat and Rajasthan, an anticipated decline in production is spurring prices. “There is intense speculative
in the exchange. It is also close to the fiscal year ending. There is good export demand with China being the
active buyer.

✍ VEGETABLE OIL ( March - 24 - 2017 )
Vegetable oil import is likely to decline during the current oil year (November '16 to October '17), the first
such in six years. This is likely due to an estimated increase in domestic output and a decline in consumer
demand after a demonetisation-driven liquidity crisis in the three months since November. Since
consumption of edible oil is a daily affair and cannot be deferred, the fall in demand could not be made
up.Trade sources estimate import to decline by five per cent or 700,000 tonnes this year. This would cut the
import bill proportionately. About 55 per cent of India's 23.5 million tonnes of annual edible oil
consumption is met through import, primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina. "We are estimating
import at 14 mt this year or even lower, due to bumper oilseed output in both kharif and rabi seasons,"
Demand was normalising after the demonetisation impact. After normal monsoon rain during the 2016
season, the Union ministry of agriculture had forecast oilseed output to surpass its previous record of 32.75
mt in 2013-14 to 33.59 mt this year, according to its Second Advanced Estimate, published on February 15.

The latter figure would be a third higher than the previous year. Dorab Mistry, Director, Godrej
International, estimates the additional edible oil output at 1.5 mt for the current oil year. The ministry
reported total domestic oil output at 9.54 mt for 2015-16. Put together, that means 11.04 mt of edible oil
output for 2016-17.
✍ JEERA - ( 27- March - 2017 )
Jeera futures hit an upper circuit and close near two month high on Thursday, marking the biggest single
day gain seen last in June 2016 amid lower production outlook and forecasts for good exports demand.
Most active jeera futures for April delivery on the National Commodities and Derivative Exchange rose
3.98% to Rs. 17,905 per quintal today. Jeera prices have been quite volatile this year, as the price dropped
from the high of Rs. 18,200 levels in mid January to Rs.16,730 in February last week and again recovered
about Rs.1,117 a quintal in March.

( 25 -March - 2017 )

✍ CASTOR SEED
Prices of castor seed continue to surge on the back of lower production and expectation of good export
demand for castor oil and meal in the coming months. Seed prices have already reached a two-year high at
the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange and physical markets. In the latter, seed prices have
risen 21.3 per cent during March itself. "The market has reacted on a lower production estimate and that's
why seed prices have gone up sharply. However, it is just the beginning of fresh arrivals, which will
increase in the coming days. This may put castor prices under pressure. Currently, about 90,000-100,000
bags (each 60 kg) of seed are coming to the markets, mainly in Gujarat. The price of the commodity is now
Rs 4,830 a quintal. Last year at this time, it was Rs 4,100 a quintal, while the arrival was about 125,000
bags. At NCDEX, castor seed's most-active April contract gained Rs 189 or four per cent to Rs 4,925 a
quintal on Friday.
( 27 - march - 2017 )
The Agriwatch Agri Commodities Index rose 0.74% to 110.34 during the week ended March 25, 2017 from
109.53 during the previous week led by higher cereals and pulses. The base for the Index and all subIndices is 2014 (= 100). Seven of the nine commodity group sub-indices and 15 of the 29 individual
commodity sub-indices that constitute the main index gained during the week. Spices and sweeteners were
the only declining groups this week. The commodity group sub-index values and their weekly changes are
as follows: Cereals: 113.47 (+1.16%), Pulses: 137.35 (+3.20%), Vegetables: 41.18 (+0.41%), Edible Oils:
104.47 (+0.60%), Oilseeds: 90.01 (+0.80%), Spices: 97.92 (-3.29%).

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