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Commodity Research Report 17 April 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



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Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Gold was trading higher in early trade on Monday after the dollar weakened with investors going for
fresh positions in safe-haven assets in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions over North Korea. Gold on MCX
settled up 0.12% at 29229 as the dollar reversed losses and political tensions simmered, leaving investor interest
in safe havens like the precious metal largely intact on last week trading session. The U.S. dollar took a heavy
hit after President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal the dollar "is getting too strong" and that he would
prefer the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. Meanwhile, tensions continued over the United States'
relationship with Russia over Syria and in the Korean peninsula, while worries about the upcoming French
presidential election also kept investors nervous. We maintain COMEX GOLD near-term target at $ 1,200 per
ounce and Long-Term target at $ 1,250 per ounce. Technically gold market is under fresh buying as market has
witnessed gain in open interest by 2.54% to settled at 7467 while prices up 36 rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting
support at 29400 and below same could see a test of 29301 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at
29595, a move above could see prices testing 29661-29680.
GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - On the Above given Daily Chart of Gold the upper Band Suggest that the Bullish trend may
Continue, MCX Gold creates complex Bullish top pattern on the technical chart which gives signal for the improving
trend will unchanged on near main Support Rs. 29300-29260 on the other side; below target can be found up to
28976 by breaking Rs. 29280 and being close below it. Focus on $ 1200 as the near support when $ 1206 as near
Resistance for Comex Gold.short term traders buy Gold at decline for target 29760-29870 with strict Stop Loss
29340.

.
Monday, 17 .April .2017

SILVER -Silver settled flat after prices seen supported as heightened geopolitical tensions underpinned safe
haven demand for the precious metal. Investors continued to play it safe as concerns over U.S. military action
against Syria and North Korea along with worries over the French presidential election. Silver prices rose 1.57
per cent to Rs 42650 per kg at the futures trade largely in tune with a firm trend in global market. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, silver for delivery in May traded higher by Rs 453 or 1.57 per cent at Rs 42650 per kg on
last week trading session. Risk-off sentiment has boosted to demand for traditional safe-haven assets including
bullion, as investors sought refuge from the recent market volatility amid increased geopolitical concerns. U.S. –
Russia relations remained in the political spotlight, as U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was expected in
Moscow on Wednesday to meet with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and discuss a number of sensitive
topics including the Korean peninsula, Syria and bilateral relations. Trump told the Wall Street Journal, that he
thinks the currency is getting too strong and hinted that he may reappoint Janet Yellen to chair the Federal
Reserve Board when her term ends in 2018, as he added "I do like a low-interest rate policy, I must be honest
with you. Technically Silver market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by
2.36% to settled at 12309 while prices up 15 rupees. Now MCX Silver is getting support at 42498 and below
same could see a test of 41994 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 42662, a move above could see
prices testing 42876-42988..

Detail of Chart -There is upper Bollinger band of the strong improving pro move is becoming on Rs. 41900 in
MCX. Technically Silver is in Bullish trend for the upcoming week, as we have seen Silver prices rose on Friday
to a five-week high, heading for the fourth weekly profit in a row after drawing support from higher demand on
safe havens today. Silver last traded at $18.32 an ounce, up from the opening of $18.25, with an intraday high at
$18.49, and a low at $18.20. As per momentum oscillators the silver to trade in bullish trend in upcoming week,
the Bollinger Band clearly indicating the silver may move towars the next crucial Resistance of 41500-41580.
The Crucial Resistance for metal is 41530-41620 and Support is 40880-40620

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-APRIL-17

128

125

124

123

122

120

119

118

COPPER

28-APRIL-2017

378

374

370

368

366

364

362

358

354

CRUDE OIL

19-APRIL-17

3520

3488

3456

3438

3424

3406

3392

3360

3328

GOLD

05-JUNE-2017

29830

29678

29526

29467

29374

29315

29222

29070

28918

LEAD

28-APRIL-2017

150

148

146

145

144

143

142

140

138

NATURAL GAS

25-APRIL-2017

224

218

212

209

206

203

200

194

188

NICKEL

28-APRIL-2017

655

646

637

631

628

622

619

610

601

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

43701

42915

42743

42350

42129

41736

41343

ZINC

28-APRIL-2017

182

172

170

162

157

43308
177

S1
121

42522
167

165

152

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-APRIL-17

135

131

127

125

123

121

119

115

111

COPPER

28-APRIL-2017

404

392

380

373

368

361

356

344

332

CRUDE OIL

19-APRIL-17

3760

3647

3534

3477

3421

3364

3308

3195

3082

GOLD

05-JUNE-2017

31590

30778

29966

29687

29154

28875

28342

27530

26718

LEAD

28-APRIL-2017

153

150

147

146

144

143

141

138

135

NATURAL GAS

25-APRIL-2017

237

227

217

212

207

202

197

187

177

NICKEL

28-APRIL-2017

735

702

669

647

636

614

603

570

537

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

47154

45466

43778

43174

42090

41486

40402

38714

37026

ZINC

28-APRIL-2017

192

184

176

172

168

164

160

152

144

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

65.64

65.26

65.06

64.82

64.44

64.08

63.98

63.67

63.23

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

70.24

69.89

69.03

68.19

67.43

67.01

66.81

66.45

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

85.84

85.14

84.52

82.18

81.74

80.08

79.24

78.74

78.06

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

62.67

61.84

60.69

59.36

58.61

57.46

56.65

55.18

53.93

66.04

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

66.52

65.82

64.14

63.88

63.47

62.89

62.18

61.72

59.89

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

76.79

74.41

72.20

70.82

69.14

68.54

67.89

67.07

66.60

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

94.25

92.23

90.78

88.98

86.16

84.05

82.16

80.58

78.85

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

66.47

65.52

64.58

63.89

62.93

58.35

57.84

56.26

55.94

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-APRIL-2017

SYBEANIDR

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

648

643

638

635

633

630

628

623

618

20-APRIL-2017

3005

2979

2953

2941

2927

2915

2901

2875

2849

RMSEED

20-APRIL-2017

3948

3918

3888

3876

3858

3846

3828

3798

3768

JEERAUNJHA

20-APRIL-2017

19368

19218

19068

18986

18918

18836

18768

18618

18468

GUARSEED10

20-APRIL-2017

4311

4218

4125

4085

4032

3992

3939

3846

3753

TMC

20-APRIL-2017

6392

6318

6244

6208

6170

6134

6096

6022

5948

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-APRIL-2017

655

648

641

637

634

630

627

620

613

SYBEANIDR

20-APRIL-2017

3248

3131

3014

2971

2897

2854

2780

2663

2546

RMSEED

20-APRIL-2017

4081

4001

3921

3892

3841

3812

3761

3681

3601

JEERAUNJHA

20-APRIL-2017

21582

20752

19922

19414

19092

18584

18262

17432

16602

GUARSEED10

20-APRIL-2017

4498

4335

4172

4108

4009

3945

3846

3683

3520

TMC

20-APRIL-2017

6717

6529

6341

6256

6153

6068

5965

5777

5589

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold was sold at a discount to official prices in India this week for the first time in six weeks, while demand
elsewhere in Asia remained subdued as surging bullion prices turned off buyers. "Physical buying was very
weak as prices jumped from around $1,250 this week. People are not interested in chasing prices at these
levels and retail buying will pick up only around $1,200 levels," "The holiday mood also weakened buying
ahead of Easter." Spot gold XAU= jumped to five-month highs as a sagging dollar and geopolitical tensions
burnished the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal. Dealers in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the
metal, were offering a discount of up to $ 1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices. Dealers were
charging a premium of $1 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Jewellers have
already stocked up for Akshaya Trititya festival. They are waiting for a price correction," said a Mumbaibased gold dealer with a private bank. In the last week of April, Indians will celebrate Akshaya Trititya,
when buying gold is considered auspicious. Sentiments have improved after the shock of demonetisation. We
are expecting good demand during Akshaya Trititya, In local markets, gold futures MAUc1 were trading
around 29,300 rupees per 10 grams, up 2 percent from a week ago. It has risen nearly 5 percent in four
weeks. The Indian rupee has risen 5.5 percent against the U.S. dollar so far in 2017, partly offsetting the rally
in overseas gold prices. Easing demand this week in top consumer China narrowed gold premiums to $ 6-$ 7
an ounce over international spot prices, compared with the $ 10 to $ 12 levels quoted last week. Among
other gold trading centres, premiums in Singapore were seen at $1.20 to $1.50, unchanged from last week,
and Hong Kong premiums fell to around 60 to 90 cents from 70 cents to $1 an ounce seen last week. Prices
in Japan were at a discount of around 50 cents an ounce.
Gold steadied on Wednesday after hitting a five-month peak as the dollar reversed losses and political
tensions simmered, leaving investor interest in safe havens like the precious metal largely intact. Tarnishing
an otherwise brightening outlook for global growth, tensions continued over the Korean peninsula and the
Middle East, while worries about the upcoming French presidential election persisted. "Gold finally came up
to the $1,275 area we looked for as bullish technicals, political worries .benign interest rates, Fed caution in
raising rates and other world tensions especially Middle East and North Korea. Spot gold XAU= was mostly
unchanged at $1,274.8 per ounce by 2:33 p.m. It hit its strongest since Nov. 10 at $1,279.80 earlier,
extending the previous session's near 2 percent gains. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.3 percent to settle at $
1,278.1. We see short term downside for gold at $ 1276/oz with our 3/6/12-month price targets $
1200/1200/1250/oz," Goldman Sachs said in a note. "Although it is possible that further unwinding of the
Trump related equity trades or escalation in heightened geopolitical tensions pushes gold even higher in the
next several weeks, we think that over the next three months improvement in U.S. hard growth data and
subsequent increase in real rates would bring gold prices down." Gold tends to gain when rate hike
expectations recede because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The

dollar .DXY was flat versus a currency basket after falling on Tuesday, though a general risk-off mood that
has prompted investors to sell the greenback prevailed. Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday stressed
the need for a peaceful solution for the Korean peninsula on a call with U.S President Donald Trump.
Tuesday North Korea warned of a nuclear attack on the United States at any sign of American aggression, as
a U.S. Navy strike group steamed towards the western Pacific. Vladimir Putin said trust had eroded between
the United States and Russia, as Moscow delivered an unusually hostile reception to U.S. Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson in a face-off over Syria. France's presidential race, centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right
leader Marine Le Pen clung on as frontrunners, but a far-left veteran has surged into the top four, pushing
some pollsters to calculate the most extreme run-off scenarios. of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest
gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 0.50 percent to 842.41 tonnes on Tuesday. The ETF has seen about
six tonnes of inflows this week.
Gold prices rose in European trade on Tuesday as rising political tension over North Korea and Syria
supported demand for the safe-haven metal. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
gold for June delivery gained 0.39% to $ 1.258.85 a troy ounce. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is
currently at the G7 Foreign Affair Ministers meeting in Italy where political leaders are working to produce a
cohesive message on Syria. The U.S. had been working to rally international support for its revised stance on
Syria ahead of the American Secretary of State's first diplomatic trip to Moscow. However, the Kremlin
announced Monday that Tillerson and Russian President Vladimir Putin will not meet in what could be a
sign of increased tensions. Markets also focused eyes on Asia as North Korea warned Tuesday of
“catastrophic consequences” in response to any further provocations by the U.S., days after a U.S. Navy
battle group was sent to waters off the Korean peninsula. Stateside, remarks Monday from Federal Reserve
chair Janet Yellen provided little effect on the precious metal as she repeated her outlook that the central
bank would raise U.S. interest rates gradually with an aim to sustaining full employment and near-2%
inflation without letting the economy overheat. "Whereas before we had our foot pressed down on the gas
pedal trying to give the economy all the oomph we possibly could, now allowing the economy to kind of
coast and remain on an even keel -- to give it some gas but not so much that we are pressing down hard on
the accelerator -- that’s a better stance of monetary policy. "We want to be ahead of the curve and not behind
it," Yellen explained. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver was up 0.13% at $ 17.938 a troy ounce.
Gold prices retreated from five-month highs on Friday as the stronger dollar weighed on the precious metal.
Gold for June delivery settled up 0.21% at $ 1,255.95 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange, having touched highs of $ 1,272.85 earlier. Prices surged early Friday after the U.S. launched
cruise missile strikes on a Syrian air base in the aftermath of suspected chemical-weapons attacks. But the
precious metal gave back gains as the dollar rose despite disappointing U.S. employment data as investors
remained focused on the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. The Labor Department reported
on Friday that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs last month, the fewest since last May and well below
the forecast for jobs growth of 180,000. Lower temperatures and winter storms accounted for the slowdown

in hiring. The unemployment rate ticked down to a 10-year low of 4.5%, pointing to underlying strength in
the labor market. The dollar initially sold off following the release of the weaker-than-anticipated
employment data before regaining ground.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength
against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.47% to 101.08, the most since March 15
late Friday.The dollar was boosted after New York Fed President William Dudley said on Friday that plans to
trim the Fed’s balance sheet later this year would prompt only a "little pause" in its rate hike plans. A strong
U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollarpriced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Elsewhere in precious metals trading,
silver was down 1.39% at $ 17.99 a troy ounce late Friday. In the week ahead, investors will be eyeing
Monday’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen for fresh cues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike and plans
to trim the bank’s balance sheet.
✍ ENERGY
Crude oil fell on Monday in quiet trading after the three-day Easter break on signs the United States is
continuing to add output, undermining OPEC efforts to support prices, and as the market digested North
Korea's failed missile launch on Sunday. Benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 56 cents at $
55.33 at 0618 GMT. On Thursday, before major markets closed for the holiday break, they settled up 3 cents
at $ 55.89 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 51 cents at $ 52.67 a barrel,
after rising 7 cents to $ 53.18 on Thursday. Both benchmarks last week rose for a third consecutive week,
with Brent adding 1.2 percent over the four days before the Good Friday holiday and WTI up 1.8 percent.
Trading was subdued to start the week with major market centre London still closed for the Easter holidays
on Monday. While markets are braced for the possibility of more geopolitical tensions over North Korea, the
attempted launch on Sunday of a ballistic missile fizzled as the projectile blew up almost immediately. drop
in tensions following North Korea's failed missile test ... have seen oil fade in Asia, " The soft U.S. CPI on
Friday will ease yields further, also undermining the reflationist markets such as oil and precious metals," he
said. sales in the U.S. fell for a second straight month in March and consumer prices dropped for the first
time in just over a year, official data showed on Friday. In the oil patch, U.S. drillers last week added rigs for
a 13th straight week, a sign output gains there will continue. Energy services firm Baker Hughes said on
Thursday drillers added 11 oil rigs in the week to April 13, bringing the count up to 683, highest in about two
years. Increasing U.S. output is proving a constant source of irritation to attempts by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil producers to curb output and sustain a rally in prices in a
market that has been oversupplied since mid-2014. U.S. crude oil production has climbed to 9.24 million
barrels per day, according to the latest Energy Information Administration data, making it the world's thirdlargest producer after Russia and Saudi Arabia. While compliance has been strong among OPEC countries,
production cuts have lagged among others that have agreed to act to curb oil prices, including Russia. That
may be about to change. "Non-OPEC compliance will improve over the next two months with Russia
driving the largest reductions in volume terms.


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