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Commodity Research Report 24 April 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



Original filename: Commodity Research Report 24 April 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Gold had a satisfying first quarter, rising 9% since the beginning of the year. While that can be considered a good
start, five events sprinkled throughout 2017 could send it much higher. A strong run in gold prices could continue as the
US dollar weakens and investors seek safe-havens in the face of increasing geo-political risks, “Gold is going higher here.
We see a gradually weakening dollar on trend. Although we also expect two more rate hikes by Fed this year September,
December, what we also think is that a lot of that is priced in. Gold prices traded little down on Friday after a narrow
trading range from $ 1278 to $ 1282 seen on COMEX. Gold prices stayed unmoved, closed at $ 1281.3 little changed from
Wednesday’s close of $ 1279.55 though Unemployment Claims from the US came higher than forecast. Prices could
correct little lower to find its important support at $ 1270 to $ 1273, however, the trend remains positive and could be
rebound to its psychological resistance at $ 1300. Gold MCX Futures were trading in a narrow range of Rs. 29200 to
Rs.29300. Prices move mixed with the dollar and INR moves. Prices could take its important support at Rs.29100 to
Rs.29150 and probably could be rebound to Rs.29500 levels shortly. No major news from the US in this week. The
Significance Support for Gold is 29080-29160 and Resistance is 29380-29420.

GOLD CHART-

Chart Details - On the Above given Daily Chart of Gold the upper Band Suggest that the Bullish trend may Continue,
There is spinning bottom reversal candle pattern is becoming on the technical chart in the reforming pro trend with
breakout registered at the second day of the week which shows large sales will not be seen until high level does remain
strongly. Entire technical indicators are entering into the overbought zone some degree after attractive boom pro move
registered in short to medium term but, less possibility for remaining in the overbought phase by found little profitable
selling around resistance so that; traders and investors should stand in the buy position from the support price. MCX gold
creates on weekly chart a pattern of vertical run up which gives signal for continuing boom pro trend on near support
29150 and 29100 in Gold. Quick below target can be seen up to 28950 by breaking Rs.28700 and being close below it. .
Above target can be found up to 29273 by crossing 29160.

Monday, 24 .April .2017

SILVER -Silver eroded last week’s gain, down nearly 3% this week. Prices again caught in a weekly range of $ 18
to $ 18.5. Prices need more clarity to close either below $ 18 or above $18.5, else sideways move to continue. Silver
Futures in MCX were trading in a wide range of Rs. 41000 to Rs.42500 levels over several weeks. Indicators
showing prices are in sideways range and expect to continue for coming days. Silver prices edged lower amid fading
demand despite jitters ahead of the French presidential election and ongoing geopolitical tensions over North Korea.
Polls ahead of the French vote, which begins this weekend, give both far-right and far-left candidates a chance of
making it into next month's run-off, though centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron is shown in the lead. Trading
volumes were thin, as investors awaited the outcome of the first round of the French presidential election. According
to Oddschecker, betting market probabilities of the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen or far-left candidate Melenchon
making it into the second round are not insignificant at 24% and 11%, respectfully. Official voting polls for the
second round forecast that far-right candidate, Marine Le pen, would lose no matter who she is competing against,
while Melenchon would only lose against centrist candidate Macron, who remained the clear favorite to emerge
victorious. Technically silver market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.68% to
settled at 12019 while prices down 393 rupees. Now MCX Silver is getting support at 41145 and below same could
see a test of 40785 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 41920, a move above could see prices testing
42335.

Detail of Chart -Upper Bollinger band of the strong improved pro move is opening on Rs.41170 in silver which
can be considered as the very near Resistance when it is likely to found little profitable selling in the surge of below
41500 in silver. Quick above target can be seen up to 41250 by crossing the given Resistance with attractive volume
and gives close on which consonantly. Entire technical indicators of the short to medium are trading into the over
bought zone given that short to medium term traders & investors should make breakout oriented trade.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-APRIL-17

137

133

129

126

125

121

117

113

COPPER

28-APRIL-2017

381

375

369

366

363

360

357

351

345

CRUDE OIL

19-APRIL-17

3563

3454

3345

3276

3236

3167

3127

3018

2909

GOLD

05-JUNE-2017

30035

29811

29587

29502

29363

29278

29139

28915

28691

LEAD

28-APRIL-2017

151

147

143

141

139

137

135

131

127

NATURAL GAS

25-APRIL-2017

220

214

208

204

202

198

196

190

184

NICKEL

28-APRIL-2017

647

634

621

612

608

599

595

582

569

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

42413

41663

41476

41101

40913

40538

40163

ZINC

28-APRIL-2017

183

173

170

163

158

153

42038
178

S1
122

41288
168

165

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

28-APRIL-17

139

134

129

126

124

121

119

114

109

COPPER

28-APRIL-2017

408

393

378

371

363

356

348

333

318

CRUDE OIL

19-APRIL-17

3989

3752

3515

3362

3278

3125

3041

2804

2567

GOLD

05-JUNE-2017

30400

30062

29724

29571

29386

29233

29048

28710

28372

LEAD

28-APRIL-2017

167

158

149

144

140

135

131

122

113

NATURAL GAS

25-APRIL-2017

233

223

213

208

203

198

193

183

173

NICKEL

28-APRIL-2017

692

665

638

621

611

594

584

557

530

SILVER

05-MAY-2017

46663

45013

43363

43326

41713

40676

40063

38413

36763

ZINC

28-APRIL-2017

193

184

175

170

166

161

157

148

139

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

65.14

64.68

64.45

64.12

64.02

63.98

63.72

63.38

63.23

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

7162

70.92

69.10

68.64

67.90

67.17

66.88

66.32

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

83.86

83.32

82.60

81.72

81.16

80.88

79.92

78.555

78.06

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

62.58

61.45

60.27

59.68

58.49

57.21

56.46

55.33

53.93

66.04

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

26-MARCH-17

66.52

65.82

64.14

63.88

63.47

62.89

62.18

61.72

59.89

EURINR

26-MARCH-17

76.79

74.41

72.20

70.82

69.14

68.54

67.89

67.07

66.60

GBPINR

26-MARCH-17

94.25

92.23

90.78

88.98

86.16

84.05

82.16

80.58

78.85

JPYINR

26-MARCH-17

66.47

65.52

64.58

63.89

62.93

58.35

57.84

56.26

55.94

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

SYOREFIDR

20-APRIL-2017

631

628

625

624

SYBEANIDR

20-APRIL-2017

3153

3120

3087

3072

RMSEED

20-APRIL-2017

3941

3898

3855

JEERAUNJHA

20-APRIL-2017

20373

19973

GUARSEED10

20-APRIL-2017

4182

TMC

20-APRIL-2017

6925

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

621

619

616

613

3054

3039

3021

2988

2955

3830

3812

3787

3769

3726

3683

19573

19337

19173

18937

18773

18373

17973

4099

4016

3965

3933

3882

3850

3767

3684

6699

6473

6345

6247

6119

6021

5795

5569

622

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-APRIL-2017

671

656

641

632

626

617

611

596

581

SYBEANIDR

20-APRIL-2017

3516

3347

3178

3117

3009

2948

2840

2671

2502

RMSEED

20-APRIL-2017

3981

3923

3865

3835

3807

3777

3749

3691

3633

JEERAUNJHA

20-APRIL-2017

20873

20323

19773

19437

19223

18887

18673

18123

17573

GUARSEED10

20-APRIL-2017

4497

4304

4111

4012

3918

3819

3725

3532

3339

TMC

20-APRIL-2017

7592

7116

6640

6428

6164

5952

5688

5212

4736

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices edged higher on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the first round of voting in the
presidential French election, underpinning safe haven demand for the precious metal. Gold for June delivery
settled up 0.13% at $1,285.5 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week,
gold futures were down 0.81%. Polls indicated that centrist Emmanuel Macron was clinging to a narrow lead
ahead of the first round of voting in France's presidential election on Sunday, in a four-way race that is too
close to call. Investors are fearful over the prospect of a second round run-off between far-left candidate
Jean-Luc Melenchon and Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front party, who both want to put
the country’s European Union membership to a vote. Investors were also watching events in Washington. On
Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the Trump administration will unveil a tax reform
plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this year. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the
greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 99.66 late
Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 99.36 set on Wednesday. Elsewhere in precious metals
trading, silver was down 0.65% at $ 17.90 a troy ounce late Friday. In the week ahead, political
developments in France are likely to set the tone ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and
Friday’s euro zone inflation data. Investors will also be focusing on preliminary estimates of first quarter
growth from the UK and the U.S. on Friday.
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday as investors awaited the first-round of voting in the presidential French
election at the weekend and possible announcements about tax changes in the United States. Spot gold
XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $ 1,284.62 an ounce by 2:30 p.m. EDT, on track to close the week little
changed after five straight weeks higher. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.4 percent at $ 1,289.10. "The
big news over the weekend will be the French election and the market will be to an extent on hold ahead of
that. There was potential for safe-haven buying of gold after France said security forces were fully mobilized
for the weekend vote after an Islamist militant killed a policeman Thursday night. the near term, if the
geopolitical tensions intensify, there is a chance that gold prices will reach $ 1,300 or more. A move in gold
above $ 1,290/91 would be significant as it would break above a downtrend that has been in place since gold
touched an all-time high of $ 1,920.30 in 2011, "You would have thought with the Champs-Elysees attack
that you would have got a little more safe-haven buying ahead of the French election,""If you're in the gold
market, there's already stretched speculation and there's not a lot of new news to drive it. So in the meantime
it's probably time for a bit of a pause," Investors were also watching events in Washington. President Donald
Trump's administration will unveil a tax reform plan soon and expects it will be approved by Congress this
year, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday. is at risk of some profit-taking after a strong
recent run, but should be supported by other factors, "Gold struggled to hold this week's gains as the dollar
strengthened and concerns over global risk eased. However, selling was relatively muted, which suggests a

period of consolidation is now upon us," Spot silver XAG= slipped 0.6 percent to $ 17.89 an ounce,
extending losses into a fifth session, having shed more than 3 percent so far this week despite tapping a fivemonth high on Monday.
Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but the precious metal’s downside was expected to remain limited amid
overall caution in the markets after a terrorist attack in Paris killed one person late Thursday and ahead of
Sunday’s first round in the French presidential election. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were down 0.22% at $ 1,281.00. The June contract ended
Thursday’s session just 0.03% higher at $1,283.80 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at
$1,273.80, the low of April 12 and resistance at $1,292.70, the high of April 19. Safe-haven demand reemerged after a French policeman was shot dead and two others were wounded in central Paris on Thursday
night in an attack claimed by the Islamic State militant group. Market participants were also jittery ahead of
the first round of the French presidential election due on Sunday, as recent polls have forecast the most likely
outcome to be centrist Emmanuel Macron against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Gold’s gains were
limited however, as the greenback mildly recovered from some recent losses after U.S. Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin said on Thursday that the administration will unveil a tax reform plan very soon. The
comments eased doubts over whether President Donald Trump will be able to pass tax reforms in the near
term. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six
major currencies, was steady at 99.75, off Thursday’s fresh three-week low of 99.29. A stronger U.S. dollar
usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative Asset and makes dollar-priced
commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The greenback had come under pressure after
North Korean state media warned the U.S. earlier in the week of a "super-mighty preemptive strike" and said
don't "mess with us." Sentiment on the U.S. dollar was also fragile following the release on Thursday of
disappointing data on U.S. initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.
Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for May delivery slumped 0.43% to $ 17.940 a troy ounce, while
copper futures for May delivery climbed 0.63% to $2.558 a pound.
Gold steadied on Thursday after its biggest one-day drop in more than six weeks, with a retreat in the dollar
arresting the slide, though moves were muted as markets await the outcome of the looming French
presidential election. Polls ahead of the French vote, which begins this weekend, give both far-right and farleft candidates a chance of making it into next month's run-off, though centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron
is shown in the lead. The euro rose to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar. gold XAU= was up 0.16
percent at $ 1,281.02 an ounce by 2:32 p.m. EDT. The metal hit a five-month high of $1,295.42 on Monday
before pulling back, and was on track to fall this week after five straight weeks of gains. U.S. gold futures
GCv1 for June delivery settled up 0.03 percent at $ 1,283.80. Even though momentum has been positive
there are other factors preventing a quick move higher from here - the sentiment is still that there will be
stronger data from the U.S., and yields will probably rise. That will likely limit the upside," Europe and the
United States, was also undermining demand for gold as a haven from risk, she added. Holdings of the

world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York-listed SPDR Gold Shares GLD , rose 11.8
tonnes on Wednesday for their biggest one-day inflow since September, data from the fund showed. "While
the metal is well positioned for a test of $ 1,300 with geopolitical concerns underpinning its safe-haven
status, the failed tests of $ 1,290 are beginning to weigh upon investor confidence. Among other precious
metals, spot palladium XPD= was the strongest gainer of the day, rising 3.2 percent to $ 799.58 an ounce, on
track for its biggest one-day jump since early February.
Gold prices in India were at a premium this week as jewellers raised purchases ahead of a key festival, while
higher prices kept bullion demand in check elsewhere in Asia. In the last week of April, Indians will
celebrate Akshaya Trititya festival, when buying gold is considered auspicious. Jewellers are anticipating
good retail demand during Akshaya Trititya. They are quite active in the market this week. Dealers in India,
the world's second-largest gold market, were charging a premium of up to $ 1 an ounce this week over
official domestic prices, compared to a discount of $1 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent
import tax. "The demand is expected to go up in rural areas due to good monsoon rains. That's why we have
seen good imports in the last three months. In the local market gold futures MAUc1 were trading around
29,257 rupees per 10 grams on Thursday, up nearly 5 percent in five weeks. "Demand in India is definitely
picking up but demand in rest of Asia is slow as prices have moved up people are selling more than buying.
The benchmark spot gold price XAU= was at its highest level for over five months earlier this week, boosted
by political tensions over North Korea and uncertainty ahead of the French presidential election. Premiums
in top consumer China came down to $ 3-4 an ounce over the international benchmark from $ 6-$ 7 an ounce
last week. Physical demand in Asia has been quiet this week ... There is not so much interest in the market
especially with prices heading towards $1,300. Hong Kong premiums were quoted at around 60 to 90 cents,
unchanged from last week. Prices in Japan continued to remain at a discount of 50 cents due to limited
market liquidity, a Tokyo-based trader said.
Gold prices edged lower in European trading on Thursday, nursing overnight losses amid fading demand for
safe-haven assets, despite jitters ahead of the French presidential election and ongoing geopolitical tensions
over North Korea. Comex gold futures shed $ 2.90, or around 0.2%, to $ 1,280 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET.
Meanwhile, spot gold was slightly lower at $ 1,279. The yellow metal logging its first loss in six sessions on
Wednesday after hitting a one-week low of $1,275.40, as the U.S. dollar recovered from recent losses. It has
seen choppy trade since failing to clear the closely-watched $ 1,300 mark in recent sessions. Also on the
Comex, silver futures dipped 1.2 cents, or about 0.1% to $ 18.15 a troy ounce, after losing 11.0 cents in the
prior session. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, was at
99.65 in London morning trade, keeping distance from Tuesday's low of 99.36, which was its deepest trough
since March 28. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at around at 2.205%, after falling to a low
of 2.165% Tuesday, the lowest since November 10. Gold has been well-supported in recent sessions as
market players sought shelter in safe-haven assets ahead of the upcoming French presidential election on
Sunday, which remains too close to call, and amid heightened geopolitical tension between the U.S. and


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