Commodity Research Report 15 May 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Gold have been getting slammed for weeks but we thinks this is more of a short-term reaction to subsiding
geopolitical fears and reiterates his long-term bullish outlook based on a number of fundamental drivers. Gold prices settled
higher on COMEX about 0.48% on Thursday ahead of G7 meeting in Italy in weekend. Gold prices settled at $ 1224.35
after its day’s low of $ 1216.75. Prices continue hold higher in early trades on Friday. The weekly trading levels for this
week were seen from $ 1220 to $ 1230 levels after a sharp decline in prices over the last three weeks. Gold traded in range
amid political turmoil in Washington, after President Trump unexpectedly fired FBI chief James Comey. However gains
were capped by better than expected producer inflation and labor market data. New applications for U.S. jobless benefits
unexpectedly fell last week, while producer prices rebounded strongly in April, pointing to a tightening labour market and
rising inflation that could spur the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in June. Technically gold market is under short
covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 2.47% to settled at 6593 while prices up 8 rupees. Gold in MCX
Futures held near its important support at Rs.28000 to Rs.28100. Prices could stay higher till Rs.28100 to Rs.28200 levels in
near term. Prices expected to consolidate around lower levels and expect fresh selling near Rs.28200 to Rs.28300. A strong
break below Rs.27900 could take prices much deeper till Rs.27700 to Rs.27600 levels.
Chart Details -On the Above given daily chart of Gold which is Indicating the cautious note for upcoming week trading
sessions. The Metal is Expected to trade in bulls movement as the Technical indicators are indicating upward movement
in next week. Technically , Gold Significance Support at Rs.28000 to Rs.28100. Prices could stay higher till Rs. 28100 to
Rs. 28200 levels in near term. Prices expected to consolidate around lower levels and expect fresh selling near Rs. 28200
to Rs. 28300. A strong break below Rs.27900 could take prices much deeper till Rs. 27700 to Rs. 27600 levels.
Monday, 15 .May .2017
SILVER -Now MCX Silver is getting support at 37827 and below same could see a test of 37662 level, And resistance is
now likely to be seen at 38191, a move above could see prices testing 38390. Silver on MCX settled up 0.11% at 37992
buoyed by a weaker dollar, despite the release of bullish economic data. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits
unexpectedly edged lower in the week ended May 6th, the Labor Department revealed in a report. The report said initial
jobless claims dipped to 236,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 238,000. Meanwhile, the
Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average inched up to 243,500, an increase of 500 from the
previous week's unrevised average of 243,000. Silver trading little higher on Friday, the trading levels were seen from
$16.1 to $16.5. Prices had a strong consolidation near $16 and expect for a near term rebound in prices till $16.5 to $16.7.
Silver MCX Futures to settle higher on Friday around Rs.38500. Prices taken its important support at Rs.38000 and expect
more short covering to come above Rs.38500 till Rs.39000. Technically Silver market is under fresh buying as market has
witnessed gain in open interest by 2.02% to settled at 20777 while prices up 40 rupees.
Detail of Chart -On the Above given daily Chart of Silver Applied Bollinger Band and MACD both the indicators are
indicating medium term bullishness in the Market. We may witness some positive Up move in the Precious metal,
Technically now Silver is getting support at 38067 and below same could see a test of 37980 level, And resistance is now
likely to be seen at 38267, a move above could see prices testing 38380.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices were higher on Friday to end the week little changed as the weaker dollar boosted demand for the precious
metal. Gold for June delivery settled up 0.37% at $1,228.7 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange. The dollar weakened after data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales grew less than expected last month,
and core inflation dipped, raising doubts over whether the Federal Reserve can hike rates two more times this year.
Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said, falling short of economists’ expectations for a 0.6%
increase. At the same time, the Labor Department reported that the annual rate of inflation slowed to 2.2% in April
from 2.4% in March.Annual core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, fell to 1.9%, the lowest since
October 2015. Consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, rebounding from a 0.3% drop in March. Markets are currently
pricing in around a 70% chance of a rate hike in June in the wake of the data, The U.S. dollar index, which measures
the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.48% at 99.05 following
the release of the data. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver rose 0.89% at $16.46 a troy ounce late Friday, while copper climbed 0.8%
to $2.52 a pound
Gold rose on Friday and was set to end the week little changed as the sudden sacking of the head of the FBI in the
United States stoked investor concerns and boosted demand for bullion, and the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields fell.
Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $ 1,228.01 an ounce by 2:52 p.m. EDT , hovering around the 100-day moving
average. Gold rose 0.5 percent in the previous session, its biggest one-day gain in a month. U.S. gold futures GCcv1
settled up 0.3 percent at $ 1,227.70. "You continue to see the political uncertainty continue to support gold," said ETF
Securities analyst Martin Arnold, citing the dismissal of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's James Comey and the
upcoming British election as sources of uncertainty. U.S President Donald Trump on Thursday ran into resistance for
calling ousted Federal Bureau of Investigation chief Comey a "showboat". The attack was swiftly rebuffed by top U.S.
senators and acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe, who pledged that an investigation into possible Trump campaign
ties to Russia would proceed. capping gains in gold are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase
interest rates in June. Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. Traders are expecting a 100 percent probability
of an interest rate increase in June. "After the recent drop, we perceive gold as looking technically stretched, negative
momentum indicators are beginning to fade and a June Fed rate hike seems largely expected.
Gold demand in Asia rose this week as a dip in bullion prices enticed buyers to make new purchases, with the metal
being sold at a higher premium in top consumer China. The international benchmark spot gold XAU= plunged to an
eight-week low of $ 1,213.81 an ounce earlier this week. In India, the second-largest consumer of the metal, gold
futures MAUc1 were trading around 28,000 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, down 4 percent in nearly four weeks.
"Demand has been good in the last few weeks. Consumers are comfortable at the current price level. Dealers in India
were charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, compared with a premium of $
2 last week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. India's gold imports in April more than doubled from
a year ago to 75 tonnes on strong demand during a festival that prompts purchases. are building inventory as sales
were good during Akshaya Trititya. Wedding season demand is also better than last year," said a Mumbai-based
banker with a private bank. Indians celebrated the annual festival of Akshaya Tritiya, when buying gold is considered
auspicious, in the last week of April. In the first quarter of this year, Indian gold demand rose 15 percent from a year
ago, the World Gold Council said in a report published earlier this month. China, premiums rose up to $15 an ounce
over the international benchmark, from $ 12 last week. Premiums in Hong Kong were quoted at around 60 to 90 cents.
"There is good amount of buying interest at these price levels in China,In Singapore, gold premiums remained in a 70
cents to $1 range, unchanged from last week, while prices in Tokyo were at a discount of 50 cents, compared with a
25-cent discount last week.
Gold prices moved higher on Friday, as recent political events in the U.S. continued to weigh on the greenback and
boost demand for safe-haven assets, although investors were also eyeing the release of U.S. data due later in the day.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery were up 0.26% at
The June contract ended Thursday’s session 0.43% higher at $1,224.20 an ounce.
Futures were likely to find support at $1,214.30, the low of May 9 and resistance at $1,236.90, the high of May 8.
Markets were still jittery since U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire FBI Director James Comey.
Comey had been leading his agency's investigation into alleged Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential
campaign and possible collusion with Trump's campaign.
Investors were concerned the latest events in Washington could hamper the U.S. administration's ability to implement
promised tax reform and stimulus measures. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a
trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was steady at 99.48 on Friday morning.
Gold prices inched higher in European trade on Thursday, but held near their lowest level in around eight weeks amid
growing expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike next month. Comex gold futures rose around $ 4.00, or about 0.3%,
to $ 1,222.70 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was at $ 1,222.30. The yellow metal hit its lowest
since March 15 at $ 1,214.30 on Tuesday amid fading demand for safe-haven assets. Markets are pricing in around an
80% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting. The metal is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which
increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced. The
dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.46 in London morning
trade, not far from a three-week high of 99.61. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at around 2.395%,
within sight of a five-week peak of 2.416%. There are a couple of economic reports Thursday, including weekly
jobless claims and producer price inflation data both due at 8:30AM ET. Also on the Comex, silver futures gained
10.6 cents, or about 0.7%, to $16.31 a troy ounce. It fell to a more than four-month low of $16.06 on Tuesday.
Gold turned lower but held above the previous day's eight-week low on Wednesday as U.S. President Trump's abrupt
firing of FBI chief James Comey weighed on U.S. stocks, though gains were capped by expectations of further interest
rate increases. U.S. equities .SPX paused and the dollar .DXY eased as risk appetite faded on concerns that Trump's
dismissal of Comey could make it harder for him to push through tax reform plans. Spot gold XAU= was down 0.2
percent at $1,218.95 an ounce by 1:47 p.m. EDT, holding above Tuesday's two-month low at $1,213.81 but turning
lower as U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR turned up. U.S. gold futures GCv1 for June delivery settled up 0.2 percent
at $ 1,218.90.
"looks like an attempt at stabilization today after the sharp losses in the preceding days. Trump's firing of FBI Chief
Comey adds new uncertainty, stock markets seem to pause." Trump attributed his decision to sack Comey, who had
been leading an investigation into the Trump campaign's possible collusion with Russia during the 2016 election, to
the FBI chief's handling of an investigation into presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's emails. Democrats said that
Trump had political motives for the move. Pressure remained on gold as expectations for further U.S. monetary policy
tightening next month underpinned the dollar and weighed on bullion. "Gold prices have dipped below the 100-day
moving average, implied volatility has eased towards 2005 lows and ... strengthening U.S. Treasury yields are a strong
downside risk for gold prices.
Gold prices were higher in European trade on Wednesday, bouncing off the prior session's eight-week low after U.S.
President Donald Trump abruptly fired FBI Director James Comey in a move that shocked Washington. Rekindled
fears that North Korea could be gearing up for another weapons test also supported gold. Comex gold futures rose
around $ 6.00, or about 0.5%, to $ 1,222.30 a troy ounce by 3:05AM ET . Meanwhile, spot gold was at $1,221.80. The
yellow metal hit its lowest since March 15 at $1,214.30 on Tuesday amid fading demand for safe-haven assets. The
dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to 99.33, moving away from
Tuesday's three-week high of 99.56. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped to around 2.39%, down from
Tuesday's five-week peak of 2.416%. However, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month limited gains.
Markets are pricing in around an 80% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting.
The metal is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
Also on the Comex, silver futures gained 14.4 cents, or about 0.9%, to $16.21 a troy ounce. It fell to $16.06 on
Tuesday, a level not seen since January 3.
Gold prices inched down in European trade on Tuesday, holding near the prior session's seven-week low amid fading
demand for safe-haven assets. Comex gold futures slipped around $1.00, or about 0.1%, to $1,226.50 a troy ounce by
2:50AM ET. Meanwhile, spot gold was little changed at $1,225.90.
The yellow metal hit its lowest since March 16 at $1,221.00 on Monday as safe-haven demand ebbed after marketfriendly centrist Emmanuel Macron beat far-rightist Marine Le Pen to clinch the French presidency. The victory for
Macron signaled that political risks in France and across Europe are receding, in the wake of the populist surge which
resulted in Brexit and propelled Donald Trump to the White House, dampening demand for the yellow metal, which is
often used as a hedge in times of political uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors awaited fresh signals on whether the
Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month.
There are a few economic reports Tuesday, including the NFIB small business survey at 6:00AM ET, followed by
JOLTS job opening data and wholesale trade for March both due at 10:00AM ET.
Markets are pricing in around an 82% chance of a hike at the Fed's June meeting, The metal is highly sensitive to
rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the
dollar, in which it is priced.