Commodity Research Report 24 July 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD -Gold on MCX settled up 0.29% at 28331 as the euro jumped in the wake of a ECB meeting, putting pressure on the
dollar. The ECB, as expected, left interest-rate policy and other stimulative measures untouched. But the euro jumped as investors
looked beyond seemingly dovish remarks by ECB President Mario Draghi to continued expectations the institution will move in
the fall to begin tapering its program of bond purchases. Gold prices have been well-supported in recent sessions amid fading
expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. Traders are pricing in less than a 40% chance of a rate hike by
December, as recent dovish comments from Chair Janet Yellen and soft inflation data raised doubts over whether policymakers
will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in US rates, which lift the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. While from data side which released earlier showed that the
number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. fell more than expected last week, nearing the lowest level
in more than four decades. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, fell 5.3 tonnes
on Wednesday to 816.1 tonnes, their lowest since early February. Its reserves have declined more than 12 tonnes so far this week.
Technically Gold market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 0.92% to settled at 5951 while
prices up 81 rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28182 and below same could see a test of 28032 level, And resistance
is now likely to be seen at 28431, a move above could see prices testing 28530.
Chart Details -On the Above given daily chart of Gold has Applied the Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR, The Gold has
already broken the upper level of 28580 which was crucial Resistance level for the Precious Metal, Now going forward the
Momentum oscillators are Suggesting Up ward movement in the Gold daily Chart. The MCX Gold is getting support at 28182 and
below same could see a test of 28032 level, And Resistance is now likely to be seen at 28689, a move above could see prices
testing 28900-29150 in near Term..
Monday, 24 July 2017
SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.33% at 37881 rallied on the back of a weaker dollar but gains were capped as expectations
grew that the European Central Bank is moving closer to tightening monetary policy. Following the European Central Bank’s
decision to keep interest rates unchanged, Draghi said the central bank saw signs of “unquestionable improvement” in Eurozone
growth, and indicated that policymakers would discuss changes to the bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy in September. The ECB
rate decision and press conference from Draghi came ahead of a mixed bag of economic reports on the labor market and
manufacturing sector. Silver is getting resistance in the range $16.50 level as the US dollar halted a plunge but stayed around 10month lows. The plunge was slowed down by expectations, fuelled last week by the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen, that any monetary tightening in the US would happen slowly and reports from China that suggested growth there is slightly
ahead of target for the year. Earlier this week, China released second quarter GDP growth with a gain of 1.7% that matched
expectations and a year-on-year increase of 6.9% that came in slightly higher than the expected 6.8%. At the same time, China
reported industrial production gained 7.6% from a year earlier in June and retail sales rose 11% in June. Technically Silver market
is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.15% to settled at 19942 while prices up 124 rupees.
Now MCX Silver is getting support at 37548 and below same could see a test of 37216 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 38089, a move above could see prices testing 38298..
Detail of Chart -On the above given daily Chart of of Silver is Suggesting more gains till the next Significance Resistance level
of 38940, Break above this will the Precious Metal will move towards 39134-39312 in near term. On the above given chart Applied
indicators are in over bought Territory we may witness short Term correction in the metal toward 38053-37946 level in near Term.
✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
31- JULY -2017
✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
31- JULY -2017
✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
JEERAUNJHA 18-AUG -2017
✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
Gold prices rose for a sixth straight session on Friday, to notch up the largest weekly gain in two months
as the U.S. dollar slid to its lowest level in more than a year, underpinning demand for the precious
metal.Gold for August delivery closed up 0.72% at $1,254.48 on the Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange. For the week, the precious metal was up 1.97%. The U.S. dollar index, which
measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended down
0.32% at 93.78, the lowest close since June 22, 2016. The index ended the week down 1.32%, marking its
second straight weekly decline. A weaker dollar tends to boost prices for gold, which is denominated in
the U.S. currency. The greenback was pressured lower by the stronger euro, which was boosted by
expectations that the European Central Bank is moving closer to tapering its bond-buying program and
fresh political turmoil in Washington. On Thursday, the investigation into alleged links between President
Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia in last year’s election is extending into his business. Earlier in the
week, Republican lawmakers pulled the plug on the latest version of a contentious bill to replace
Obamacare, delivering a major policy blow to the Trump administration. The failure to deliver on
healthcare reform indicated that Trump’s other legislative efforts, such as overhauling the tax code and
implementing fiscal stimulus could face difficulties. Hopes for tax reforms and fiscal stimulus under the
Trump administration helped drive the dollar to a 14-year high after the November election. The dollar
has now given up all of its post-election gains. Doubts over the Federal Reserve’s plans for a third rate
hike this year have also fed into dollar weakness. The Fed is to hold its next meeting on Wednesday and
is widely expected to hold policy steady.
Gold demand in Asia eroded this week due to higher prices with a seasonal slowdown denting the lure for
the precious metal in second-biggest consumer India. Dealers in India offered discounts for gold, as the
absence of key festivals kept demand subdued, especially as the wedding season has passed. "Every year,
demand remains weak in July. There is no major festival this month. Wedding season is almost over,"For
the next three to four weeks, demand will remain on the lower side. It will improve from the second half
of August." Dealers were offering a discount of up to $1 an ounce this week over official domestic prices,
compared to a discount of $1.20 last week, said four sources from jewellers, banks and gold dealers. The
domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. Local gold prices MAUc1 have risen 2.7 percent since
July 10 after falling to the lowest level in six months. "The recent rebound in prices is also keeping buyers
on the sidelines. They are waiting for a clear trend. High prices kept buyers on the sidelines elsewhere in
Asia as well. "Demand has softened again at current price levels. It had picked up when gold was trading
closer to $1,200, but has again abated as the market waits for a clearer indication as to which way it may
swing," The international spot gold benchmark XAU= hit a three-week high of $1,248.35 an ounce on
Friday, with prices set for an about 1.5 percent weekly gain, bolstered by weakness in the U.S. dollar,
which was at multi-month lows. GOL/
In top consumer China, premiums were slightly below the $10 per ounce level reported last week, while
in Hong Kong, the premiums were at 60 cents to $1 against 70 cents to $1 in the previous week.
Singapore premiums were in a range of 75 cents to $ 1.10 per ounce, compared with a range of 80 cents
to $1.10 last week. "Demand should remain quiet in the near-term, especially with the upcoming summer
holidays in the region," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.
Gold prices showed slight gains in overnight trade on Friday, hitting its highest level this month, concerns
over investigations into U.S. President Donald Trump’s alleged ties with Russia drove investors into the
safe haven asset. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for August delivery
gained $ 1.19, or 0.10%, to $ 1.246.69 a troy ounce by 3:44AM ET. Gold hit an intraday high of $
1.247.65 earlier in the session, its highest level since June 30, and was on track for weekly gains of 1.5%
in what would be its second consecutive weekly rise. The Republican Party’s incapacity to achieve a
replacement healthcare plan and headlines revolving around multiple congressional and federal
investigations into possible ties between Trump and Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign have
recently put pressure on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength
against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dropped 0.07% at 94.01 by 3:44AM ET. A weak
dollar usually supports gold prices, as it bolsters the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes
dollar-priced commodities more attractive to holders of other currencies. Gold was also supported this
week as both the European and Japanese central banks announced that they would continue their
accommodative monetary policy. Barring further political developments stateside, Friday was expected to
be a quiet day for the precious metal as no major economic reports were scheduled for release.
Elsewhere in metals trading, silver inched up 0.06% at $16.355 a troy ounce.
Gold prices edged lower in European trade on Thursday, as market players awaited the outcome of the
European Central Bank's meeting for fresh clues on when it will start to shift away from its ultra-easy
policy. Comex gold futures were at $1,238.68 a troy ounce by 3:20AM ET, down $ 3.30, or around 0.3%.
Gold prices finished a few cents higher on Wednesday, extending their streak of gains to a fourth session.
The ECB's latest interest rate decision is due at 1145GMT on Thursday, with no big changes expected.
Most of the focus will be on President Mario Draghi's press conference 45 minutes after the
announcement, as investors look for more clues on when and how the ECB could scale back its massive
quantitative easing program. Market experts believe the central bank is likely to wait until September
before announcing a tapering of its 60 billion euros of monthly asset purchases. Earlier in the session, the
Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady as a two-day meeting concluded. The central bank also cut its
inflation forecasts for fiscal years 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. Besides central banks, investors will focus
on U.S. data due later in the session to gauge the strength of the world's largest economy and how it will
impact the Fed's view on monetary policy. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing
survey are both due at 8:30AM ET. Gold prices have been well-supported in recent sessions amid fading
expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. Futures traders are pricing in less than
a 40% chance of a rate hike by December, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, as recent
dovish comments from Chair Janet Yellen and soft inflation data raised doubts over whether policymakers
will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S.
rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
Gold slipped back towards $ 1,240 an ounce on Wednesday, after three straight day's of gains, as the U.S.
dollar's recovered slightly from a 10-month low. Bullion held below Tuesday's 2-1/2-week high, when
prices were buoyed by the failure of U.S. President Donald Trump's healthcare bill to pass the U.S. Senate
and by waning expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve this year. The U.S.
dollar index .DXY rose 0.2 percent, with the euro EUR= down 0.3 percent, however, taking upward
pressure off gold.
Spot gold XAU= was down 0.05 percent at $1,241.35 an ounce by 2:56 p.m. EDT, while U.S. gold
futures GCv1 for August delivery closed little changed, up 0.01 percent at $ 1,242.
"With the sluggish dollar yesterday we had a bit of a move on the upside, but there seems to be some light
profit taking coming in between $1,243-1,245," The U.S. currency remained rangebound, however, with
investors wary of making strong bets ahead of major central bank meetings. Expectations that U.S.
monetary policy is on a tightening path kept gold hemmed into a narrow range in the last quarter after a
strong start to the year. Signs that central banks in Europe and elsewhere are also turning away from ultraloose monetary policies have also weighed on the precious metal. Gold is highly sensitive to rising
interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Rising U.S. rates also
lift the dollar, in which gold is priced. "It appears as if some Wall Street gold traders long from the $1,232
area are hoping for this rally to continue and would be satisfied heading for the exits around the $1,248$1,252 range.
Gold prices edged lower in European trade on Wednesday, pausing for breath after rallying to the highest
level in around three weeks in the prior session. Comex gold futures were at $1,239.46 a troy ounce by
3:00AM ET, down $2.50, or around 0.2%. Prices settled higher for a third-straight session on Tuesday
after hitting their highest level since June 30 at $1,244.10. Gold's gains came as the dollar sank to an 11month low after a second attempt by Republicans to replace Obamacare failed, delivering a major blow to
President Donald Trump's agenda. Investors were now more doubtful over the future of the Trump
administration's planned tax reforms, given the difficulty the healthcare bill has faced in making progress.
Fading expectations for another rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year further weighed on the
greenback. Futures traders are pricing in less than a 40% chance of a rate hike by December. Market
players will focus on U.S. housing sector data due later in the session to gauge the strength of the world's
largest economy and how it will impact the Fed's view on monetary policy. The U.S. central bank hiked
rates at its June meeting and stuck to its forecast for one more rate hike this year, but recent dovish
comments from Chair Janet Yellen and soft inflation data has raised doubts over whether policymakers
will be able to stick to their planned tightening path. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S.