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Commodity Research Report 31 July 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf


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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold on MCX settled up 0.32% at 28476 as investors continue to pile into the precious metal amid expectations that Fed
could keep interest rates low for longer than initially anticipated. Fed kept interest rates unchanged but expected to start winding
down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon." The U.S. Senate voted almost unanimously to slap new sanctions on Russia,
putting President Donald Trump in a tough position by forcing him to take a hard line on Moscow or veto the legislation and
infuriate his own party. Physical gold demand globally rose to 1,895 tonnes in the first half of 2017, up 17 percent from the same
period last year. But the market saw a surplus of 138 tonnes in the first six months compared with a balanced market in the same
period last year, despite supplies shrinking more than five percent to 2,160 tonnes. That was mainly due to physically-backed
exchange traded funds, where demand fell to 145 tonnes from 569 tonnes. India's falling trade deficit is giving the world's secondbiggest gold consumer room to lower its import duty on bullion, a commerce ministry official said Holdings at the SPDR Gold
Trust the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.45 percent to 791.88 tonnes on Thursday from 795.42 tonnes on
Wednesday. Technically Gold market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 14.39% to settled at
4532 while prices up 92 rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28359 and below same could see a test of 28243 level, And
resistance is now likely to be seen at 28599, a move above could see prices testing 28723.

GOLD CHART

Chart Details - On the Above given daily chart of Gold has Applied the Bollinger Band along with Parabolic SAR, The Gold
has already broken the upper level of 28600 which was crucial Resistance level for the Precious Metal, Gold futures traded
marginally higher on the day for the second day in a row. However, in each of the last two trading days, market participants have
moved pricing dramatically lower intraday. More importantly, the intraday lows of each day were met with a “buy the dip”
mentality, taking prices off the lows, resulting in closing prices near the intraday high.As of 4 o’clock EDT, gold futures have
settled at $1215.70, up $2.50 on the day (+0.21%). Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28359 and below same could see a test of
28243 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 28599, a move above could see prices testing 28723.

Monday, 31 July 2017

SILVER -Silver on MCX settled up 0.45% at 38263 as a softening in the Federal Reserve's confidence on inflation added to
expectations that policy tightening would be glacial at best. The recognition of soft inflation added to expectations that the Fed's
plan to raise interest rates a third time this year might be delayed. As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve stood pat on
interest rates Wednesday, keeping its benchmark rate in a target range of 1%-1.25% while expressing concerns about the slowdown
in inflation, pushing the dollar to fourteen-month lows. The dollar recovered, however, after economic reports showed durable
goods orders for June topped expectations, offsetting a larger-than-expected rise in initial jobless claims. The U.S. Department of
Labor reported Thursday that initial jobless claims rose by more than expected to 244,000 in the week ended July 23, missing
forecasts of a 7,000 decline. In a separate report, core durable goods orders rose by 6.5% in June, the Commerce Department said,
reflecting a sharp jump in orders for transportation equipment. The U.S. Senate voted almost unanimously to slap new sanctions on
Russia, putting President Donald Trump in a tough position by forcing him to take a hard line on Moscow or veto the legislation
and infuriate his own party. Technically Silver market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by
-1.23% to settled at 17658 while prices up 172 rupees. Now MCX Silver is getting support at 38061 and below same could see a
test of 37860 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38581, a move above could see prices testing 38900.

SILVER CHART

Detail of Chart -On the above given daily Chart of of Silver is Suggesting more gains till the next Significance Resistance level of
39200, Break above this will the Precious Metal will move towards 39134-39312 in near term. Now MCX Silver is getting support at
38061 and below same could see a test of 37860 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 38581, a move above could see prices
testing 38900.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

130

128

126

124

122

120

121

120

119

COPPER

31- AUG-2017

423

419

415

413

411

409

407

403

399

CRUDE OIL

21-AUG-17

3341

3285

3229

3202

3173

3146

3117

3061

3005

GOLD

04-AUG-2017

29112

28912

28712

28629

28512

28429

28312

28112

27912

LEAD

31-AUG-17

153

151

149

148

147

146

145

143

141

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

202

198

194

192

190

188

186

182

178

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

701

684

667

659

650

642

633

616

599

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

39806

39341

38876

38713

38411

38248

37946

37481

37016

ZINC

31-AUG-17

187

185

183

182

181

180

179

177

1755

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

136

132

128

126

122

120

118

116

112

COPPER

31-AUG-17

481

454

427

412

400

385

373

346

319

21-AUG-17

3733

3469

3274

3142

3073

2947

2809

2677

2545

GOLD

04-AUG-2017

29432

29126

28820

28725

28514

28419

28208

27902

27596

LEAD

31-AUG-17

155

152

149

145

144

143

142

140

137

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

211

204

197

195

190

188

183

176

169

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

760

719

678

657

637

616

596

555

514

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

41381

40334

39287

38829

38240

37782

37193

36146

35099

ZINC

31-AUG-17

203

195

187

182

179

174

171

163

155

CRUDE OIL

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

64.62

64.46

64.32

64.24

64.12

63.96

63.88

63.64

63.42

EURINR

29-AUG-17

79.74

78.68

77.36

76.66

75.52

74.18

73.69

73.18

72.68

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

86.87

84.25

82.84

80.78

79.03

77.56

74.93

74.08

73.95

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

58.86

58.42

58.04

57.46

57.12

56.96

56.43

55.45

54.12

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

65.92

65.68

65.48

64.27

64.13

63.91

63.75

63.51

63.33

EURINR

29-AUG-17

80.82

79.01

78.07

77.63

75.92

74.86

73.12

72.18

71.89

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

92.36

90.56

88.45

85.92

83.65

82.01

80.05

78.85

76.45

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

59.18

58.80

57.06

56.72

56.12

55.82

55.17

55.03

54.18

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

657

653

649

647

645

643

641

637

633

SYBEANIDR

18-AUG -2017

3172

3129

3086

3067

3043

3024

3000

2975

2914

RMSEED

18-AUG -2017

3935

3852

3769

3731

3686

3648

3603

3520

3437

JEERAUNJHA 18-AUG -2017

19986

19701

19416

19263

19131

18978

18846

18561

18276

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

3853

3746

3639

3583

3532

3476

3425

3318

3211

TMC

18-AUG -2017

7886

7638

7390

7261

7142

7013

6894

6646

6398

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

688

673

658

650

643

635

628

613

598

SYBEANIDR

18-AUG -2017

3320

3221

3122

3023

2979

2924

2825

2726

2543

RMSEED

18-AUG -2017

4098

3965

3832

3756

3699

3623

3566

3433

3300

JEERAUNJHA

18-AUG -2017

21305

20645

19985

19650

19325

18990

18665

18005

17345

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

4110

3904

3698

3601

3492

3395

3286

3080

2874

TMC

18-AUG -2017

8545

8061

7577

7399

7093

6915

6609

6125

5641

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
✍ GOLD
Gold prices fell in Asia on Monday as investors eyed demand prospects in China as a tad weaker than
expected after official manufacturing and services PMI estimates for July. Gold for August delivery eased
0.06% to $1,267.69 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For last
week, the precious metal was up 1.08%, its third consecutive weekly gain. The CFLP manufacturing PMI
reached 51.4, a tad below expected, but still in expansion, while a 54.5 for the services PMI also was een
as steady. The private Caixin manufacturing reading is due on Tuesday with a reading of 50.4 seen. Any
level above 50 denotes expansion. The services sector accounted for over half of China\'s economy last
year as rising wages give Chinese consumers the opportunity to shop, travel and eat out more. China\'s
leaders are counting on growth in services and consumption to rebalance their economic growth. Earlier,
Japan reported industrial production data for June rose 1.6%, compared to an expected provisional 1.7%
gain. Later, Australia reported private sector credit rose 0.6%, compared with a gain of 0.4% seen in June.
Gold prices rose to a six-week high on Friday after weaker than expected U.S. inflation dampened
expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will aggressively raise interest rates and North Korea fired a
ballistic missile, triggering safe-haven buying. Data on U.S. second quarter gross domestic product and
labor costs also pushed the dollar lower, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. "It
showed a big fall in annual inflation rates across the board ... so there is no urgency for the Fed to raise
interest rates. Gold is sensitive to rising rates because they push up bond yields, making non-yielding gold
less attractive, and tend to boost the dollar. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.8 percent at $1,268.84 an ounce by
1:50 p.m. EDT, after touching $1,270.38, the highest since June 14. It was on track to rise for a third week
in a row. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for August delivery settled up 0.7 percent at $ 1,268.40. North Korea
fired a missile on Friday in an unusual late-night test launch, and details announced by Japanese officials
and media suggested it could be an intercontinental ballistic missile. has to be at least a modest factor here
that risk is rising in North Korea. We're not off to the races, we're not above $1,300 yet, but certainly there
is room for speculators to increase their position,"
Gold prices in India this week recorded the biggest discount in seven months as a rebound in prices
curtailed retail demand, while lower premiums in other Asian centres failed to lure customers amid
seasonal slowdown. "In the local market, prices have risen due to the GST and a rally in overseas prices.
Consumers are not comfortable with the price rise," As part of a new nationwide sales tax regime that
kicked in on July 1, the GST on gold has jumped to 3 percent from 1.2 percent previously. demand
remains weak in July. This year, the price rise has added further pressure," Dealers in India were offering
a discount of up to $4 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, compared to a discount of $1 last
week. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Jewellers are not making purchases due to

weak retail demand. They have sufficient inventory for next few weeks," said a Mumbai-based dealer
with a private bank. India's gold imports could fall below 35 tonnes in July, consultancy GFMS said. top
consumer China, premiums ranged from $5 to $10 an ounce. Premiums were slightly below $10 last
week. The international spot gold benchmark XAU= was trading near six-week highs hit on Thursday as
the dollar plummeted after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it would keep to a slow path of monetary
tightening. In Hong Kong, premiums were between 50 to 70 cents, compared with the 60 cents to $1
range in the previous week. "Demand is not expected to come back in substantial levels until a couple of
weeks into August. Physical demand dipped in Singapore as well with premiums ranging between 70
cents and a dollar as against the 75 cents to $1.10 level last week.
Gold prices held steady on Friday, as investors locked in profits from the precious metal’s rally to sixweek highs on Thursday and as markets awaited the release of U.S. second-growth data due later in the
day. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery were
little changed at $1,259.28, off the previous session’s six-week high of 1,265.00. The August contract
ended Thursday’s session 0.85% higher at $1,260.00 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at
$1,243.20, Wednesday’s low and resistance at $1,265.00, Thursday’s high. The dollar remained under
pressure after the Fed said on Wednesday that inflation remains below its 2% target even as near-term
risks to the economic outlook appear “roughly balanced.” In the past, the Fed judged that weakness in
inflation was transitory. The central bank’s cautious tone on inflation sparked fresh uncertainty over the
possibility of a third rate hike this year.
The Fed also said it expected to start shrinking its balance sheet "relatively soon", prompting expectations
for an announcement in September. The greenback was also weakened by data on Thursday showing that
initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 244,000 last week. Analysts expected jobless claims to rise by
7,000 to 241,000 last week.
Gold fell from a six-week high on Thursday, pressured by the dollar's bounce on solid U.S. economic data
and as traders digested the Federal Reserve's Wednesday statement that showed it was closer to paring its
balance sheet. The U.S. central bank appeared less confident than it had about inflation picking up but
said it expected to start winding down its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon" in a sign of
confidence in the U.S. economy. gold XAU= was flat at $1,260.86 an ounce by 2:26 p.m. EDT, after
peaking at $1,264.99, its highest since June 15. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for August delivery settled up
0.9 percent at $1,260, after falling in the prior session before the Fed released its statement. The dollar
turned higher after data showed shipments of key U.S.-made capital goods increased in June for a fifth
straight month. The resulting rise in the greenback pressures dollar-denominated gold since it makes the
metal more expensive for investors paying in other currencies. "The rebound in the dollar is putting a little
pressure on gold today. "The bond buy back policy will most likely go into effect, and we should see the
long end of the curve start to rise and that could put a little bit of pressure on gold and a touch of a boost
on the dollar index."
Fed Funds futures implied on Thursday that traders see a 49 percent chance of the Fed raising interest

rates in December. that the Fed sees the near-term risk of the economy is neutral, I don't think the market
will expect a third rate hike in the foreseeable future or at least in this quarter.
India's falling trade deficit is giving the world's second-biggest gold consumer room to lower its import
duty on bullion, a commerce ministry official said on Thursday. A reduction in import duty would make
gold cheaper in the local market and could boost demand, supporting global prices XAU= now trading
near their highest in six weeks. Spot gold prices are rebounding this month after posting their first
monthly loss for 2017 in June. A lower import duty would also help in curbing gold smuggling, which the
industry says is likely to rise after the hike in sales tax on gold jewellery from July 1. the current account
deficit is improving and this decision (to reduce import duty) should be taken into the budget. The
commerce ministry is recommending a reduction in the gold import duty to the finance ministry, Dwivedi
said, although it was not clear how soon a decrease could be enacted. A finance ministry spokesman
declined to comment on the matter. India raised import duties on gold to 10 percent in a series of hikes to
August 2013, looking to curb demand to narrow a gaping current account deficit.
India's trade deficit INTRD=ECI narrowed more-than-expected to $12.96 billion in June as gold imports
nearly halved from a month earlier. commerce ministry has "been saying the ideal rate for the industry
would be 2 percent. It can be brought down in a phased manner or in one go.
Physical gold demand globally rose to 1,895 tonnes in the first half of 2017, up 17 percent from the same
period last year. But the market saw a surplus of 138 tonnes in the first six months compared with a
balanced market in the same period last year, despite supplies shrinking more than five percent to 2,160
tonnes. That was mainly due to physically-backed exchange traded funds, where demand fell to 145
tonnes from 569 tonnes.
"After the rollercoaster ride of events for the gold market in 2016, from a jewellers' strike to Brexit to
Trump to demonetisation, 2017 has avoided similar market moving events in the first half. "The first half
of this year has arguably been more of a reversion to normality ... with neither the highs of ETF demand
or lows of seriously struggling Asian demand."
Demand in China, a top consumer, fell seven percent to 292.7 tonnes. In India, another major market,
demand nearly doubled to 307.6 tonnes, ahead of a three percent tax levied from July 1. "Given the
introduction of the Goods & Services Tax in India there is a relative hiatus in imports to that crucial
market at present. "This is leaving gold prices susceptible to softness, not least as it is often Indian
demand that responds positively to price weakness. GFMS expects to see gold prices fall below $1,200 an
ounce over summer in the northern hemisphere before recovering to average around $1,256 an ounce in
the last quarter of 2017, due to a "seasonal upturn in demand in Asia and a recovery in western
investment".
Gold prices soared to the highest level in six weeks in European trade on Thursday, after the Federal
Reserve's more cautious wording on the U.S. inflation outlook added to expectations that policy
tightening would be glacial at best. Comex gold futures were at $1,262.82 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET,
up $13.60, or about 1.1%. It touched its highest since June 15 at $1,265.14 earlier in the session. Gold


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