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epl ebookv 2016 17 .pdf



Original filename: epl_ebookv_2016-17.pdf
Author: Mark Alban

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Contents
EPL Overview 2011/12-2015/16 ................................................................................................................ 6
Arsenal ................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Overview ......................................................................................................................................................... 8
Home Performance ...................................................................................................................................... 9
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 10
AFC Bournemouth .......................................................................................................................................... 12
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 12
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 13
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 14
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 15
Burnley ............................................................................................................................................................... 16
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 16
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 17
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 18
Chelsea .............................................................................................................................................................. 19
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 20
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 21
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 22
Crystal Palace .................................................................................................................................................. 23
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 23
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 24
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 24
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 25
Everton............................................................................................................................................................... 26
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 26
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 27
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 28
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 29
Hull City AFC .................................................................................................................................................... 30
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 30
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 31
1

Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 32
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 33
Leicester City FC............................................................................................................................................. 34
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 34
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 35
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 36
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 36
Liverpool FC ..................................................................................................................................................... 37
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 37
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 38
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 39
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 40
Manchester City FC ....................................................................................................................................... 42
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 42
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 43
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 45
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 46
Manchester United ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 47
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 48
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 49
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 50
Middlesborough FC ........................................................................................................................................ 51
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 51
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 52
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 52
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 52
Southampton FC ............................................................................................................................................. 53
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 53
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 53
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 55
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 55
Stoke FC ............................................................................................................................................................ 56
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 56
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 56
2

Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 57
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 58
Sunderland FC ................................................................................................................................................. 59
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 59
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 59
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 60
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 61
Swansea FC ...................................................................................................................................................... 62
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 62
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 62
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 63
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 64
Tottenham Hotspur FC ................................................................................................................................. 65
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 65
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 65
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 66
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 67
Watford FC ........................................................................................................................................................ 68
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 68
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 68
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 69
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 69
West Bromwich Albion FC ........................................................................................................................... 70
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 70
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 70
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 71
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 72
West Ham United FC ..................................................................................................................................... 73
Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 73
Home Performance .................................................................................................................................... 73
Away Performance ..................................................................................................................................... 74
Summary ....................................................................................................................................................... 75
Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................... 76

3

Introduction

The English Premier League, the EPL. It’s a global brand. More money is
wagered on this league than any other in the world and it runs into
hundreds of millions week on week. Higher than some of the transfer
budgets that the lower teams who play in it have for a transfer window.
It’s fast paced, unpredictable, and relentless, there is no winter break.

However, it arguably attracts some of the best footballing talent in the
world, playing for some of the most iconic teams with the largest and
most widespread fan-bases in the world. The apparent unpredictability of
results week on week is what drove me, albeit slowly, to pull this book
together.

This book will give you the most profitable long term bets on the match
result and total goals on betting the remainder of the EPL season 16/17,
based on historical results. The Profit or loss quoted is from either B365
or a combination of books for an average, but these are not the best
prices/profit you could have returned so they are understated.

You are now in the most informed position when looking at the fixtures
based on the historical home and away performances of the teams in the
game you are looking at betting on. It will help if you have already read
my free eBook on finding value before continuing with this eBook.

The book has a team by team breakdown of historical performance and
trends over the past 5 seasons in the premier league. I have broken down
the Long-Term results over those seasons, and when you combine them
with the current season performance this book may be a powerful tool to
4

help you win more bets on the premier league.

5

EPL Overview 2011/12-2015/16



A Home win is the most popular outcome of all EPL games over the
past 5 seasons and accounts for 44.47% (845/1900) of matches
played



A draw is the least occurring outcome of EPL fame over the past 5
years accounting for 25.21% (479/1900) of matches



An Away Win is the second most popular outcome in terms of match
result over the past 5 years accounting for 30.3% (576/1900) of
fixtures



Most EPL game have at least 3 goals or more with Over 2.5 match
goals occurring in 52.47% (997/1900)



The remainder of games had 2 goals or less with Under 2.5
accounting for 47.52% (903/1900) of matches

So enough of the high-level numbers, whilst they are a guide on their own
they are not much help if you are backing overs when both team match
ups suggest under 2.5 match goals. Let’s look at the breakdown at team
level.

The returns quoted are predominantly based on actual main street
bookmaker prices in general and if you had shopped around then your
6

returns would have been higher and losses lower. I have made the best
effort to ensure accuracy, there may be the odd variation but nothing that
is material.

*Most of the following was written at the end of the August transfer
window and does not consider the January window. I have updated
manager changes at the time of writing”

7

Arsenal
Manager: Arsene Wenger
Founded: 1886
Home Ground: Emirates Stadium; Capacity 60355
Trophies: Premier League x13, FA Cup x12, League Cup x2,
Community Shield x14, UEFA Cup Winners Cup x1

Overview
Arsenal. Managed by Arsene Wenger, the longest serving manager in the
EPL and the only one to take a team through a season without a loss
during the “Invincibles” season of 03/04. Not won anything of significance
(FA Cup maybe) for some time now, which is surprising considering the
resources available and the strength of their team season in season out.

They are great to watch when playing well although some have been
critical of this in terms of the complexity of movement and passing, and
there have been suggestions on numerous occasions that they overelaborate at times. Regardless, they are statistically one of the best
teams in the EPL and have been since its formation. Ever present in the
top 4, is this their season to kick on and win a big title? It maybe
Wenger’s last year before he “moves upstairs” but time will tell.

Key signings over the summer were Xhaka from M’Gladbach to strengthen
up the midfield (always worth a card) who is seeing plenty of game-time.
Another was the young German Mustafi from Valencia who again saw
decent game-time early in the season. Finally, they brought in Perez from
Dep La Coruna to give another option up front, 28 years old I cannot see
8


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