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Commodity Research Report 16 August 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold prices held steady as rising tensions between the United States and North Korea triggered safe-haven buying. U.S.
President Donald Trump issued a new threat to North Korea, saying the U.S. military was "locked and loaded" as Pyongyang
accused him of driving the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war and world powers expressed alarm.A report released by
the Labor Department showed a modest uptick in consumer prices in the U.S. in the month of July. The Labor Department said its
consumer price index inched up by 0.1 percent in July after coming in unchanged in June. Inflation’s persistence below the Fed’s
2% remains a key point of debate on the interest rate-setting panel, with some members believing low inflation is transitory and
others not yet convinced it’s time to continue with rate hikes until the inflation risk becomes more apparent. Gold demand in India
remained sluggish in the week as local prices jumped to their highest level in nearly three months and a rally in global prices of the
precious metal dampened fresh buying elsewhere in Asia. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $7 an ounce on official
domestic prices, down from a discount of $11 last week, which was the highest since Sept. 24, 2016. India's gold imports will
probably drop in the second half of the year from the first six months after jewellers rushed to stock up ahead of new taxes
introduced on July 1, the World Gold Council said last week. Technically MCX Gold is getting support at 29085 and below same
could see a test of 28966 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29309, a move above could see prices testing 29414.

GOLD CHART

Chart Details - Gold prices rallied this week with the precious metal up 2.3% to trade at 1287 ahead of the New York close on
Friday. The advance comes amid growing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea with fears over an impending
war weighing on global equity markets, all of which closed lower on the week. A closer look at price action shows prices breaking
above an embedded bull-flag, keeping gold within the ascending channel formation we’ve been tracking for weeks now. Initial
support now 1281 backed by 1274 with our near-term focus higher above monthly open support at 1268. Resistance targets remain
unchanged at 1293 & the 100% extension at 1296. Note that channel resistance comes in just higher and the advance is at risk
heading into these levels next week. Bottom line: look for a reaction at these resistance levels with the medium-term focus
weighted to the topside while within this channel formation. Technically MCX Gold is getting support at 29085 and below same
could see a test of 28966 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29309, a move above could see prices testing 29414.

Wednesday,16 Aug 2017

SILVER -Silver settled flat but prices remained supported as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea kept safehaven demand elevated while data showing July inflation undershot expectations lessened the prospect of a rate hike this year. U.S.
President Donald Trump issued a new threat to North Korea, saying American weapons were "locked and loaded" as Pyongyang
accused him of driving the Korean Peninsula to the brink of nuclear war. Trump’s latest salvo to threats from North Korea, stoked
investor demand for safe-haven gold, lifting gold prices to its biggest weekly gain in four months. Also underpinning a move higher
in the precious metal was data showing a continued slowdown in the pace of inflation as consumer prices rose less than expected in
July.The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index edged up 0.1% last month after being unchanged in June. That lifted the
year-on-year increase in the CPI to 1.7% from 1.6% in June. The downbeat inflation data added to growing expectations the Federal
Reserve may abandon its plan to hike rates later this year, after the central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in June, citing
concerns over the stuttering pace of inflation. First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly edged higher in the
week ended August 5th, according to a report released by the Labor Department. The report said initial jobless claims crept up to
244,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level of 241,000. Technically Silver market is under long liquidation
as market has witnessed drop in open interest by 2.44% to settled at 13217 while prices down 19 rupees. Now MCX Silver is getting
support at 38864 and below same could see a test of 38535 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39459, a move above
could see prices testing 39725.

SILVER CHART

Detail of Chart -Silver markets broke higher during the week, forming a very bullish engulfing candle. While this is normally a
very strong sign, I am starting to see a bit of weakness on Friday, and I think that if we break down below the $17 level, the market
could very well drop from here. This has been driven by North Korean and American comments, and therefore I don’t think has any
real strength. Quite frankly, the market looks likely to roll over. However, if we break above the top of the candle for the week, the
next target will be $17.50, and then eventually the $18 level. All things being equal though, I’m starting to see some weakness in the
gold market on Friday, and that suggests to me that perhaps we are gonna see precious metals roll over a little bit. Now MCX Silver
is getting support at 38864 and below same could see a test of 38535 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 39459, a move
above could see prices testing 39725.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

135

133

131

130

129

COPPER

31- AUG-2017

428

423

418

415

413

CRUDE OIL

21-AUG-17

3311

3258

3205

3181

GOLD

05-OCT-2017

29778

29443

29088

LEAD

31-AUG-17

162

158

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

197

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

727

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

41350

ZINC

31-AUG-17

197

S2

S3

S4

127

126

123

410

408

403

398

3152

3128

3099

3049

2993

28966

28743

28621

28398

28053

27708

154

152

150

148

146

142

138

195

193

192

191

190

189

187

185

714

701

693

688

680

675

662

649

38320

37950

37310

36300

35290

182

179

40340 39330

38960

S1
128

194

191

189

188

186

185

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

154

145

136

133

127

124

118

109

100

COPPER

31-AUG-17

444

433

422

417

411

406

400

389

378

21-AUG-17

3567

3426

3285

3206

3144

3065

3003

2862

2726

GOLD

05-OCT-2017

31917

30922

29927

29565

28932

28570

27937

26942

25947

LEAD

31-AUG-17

164

159

154

151

149

146

139

134

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

231

216

201

196

186

181

171

156

141

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

826

777

728

704

679

655

630

581

532

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

46304

43719

41134

40164

38549

37579

35964

33379

30794

ZINC

31-AUG-17

220

208

196

190

184

178

172

160

148

CRUDE OIL

144

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

64.82

64.74

63.54

63.36

63.14

63.96

63.75

63.63

63.48

EURINR

29-AUG-17

76.56

76.14

75.92

75.63

75.02

74.69

74.27

74.19

74.01

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

84.58

84.12

83.96

83.58

83.26

83.03

82.98

82.78

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

57.52

57.22

57.15

57.06

56.98

56.84

56.67

56.52

56.43

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

84.34

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

66.23

65.96

64.65

64.14

63.87

63.63

63.17

62.92

62.26

EURINR

29-AUG-17

77.44

76.86

76.48

76.10

75.68

75.12

75.01

74.48

74.10

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

86.92

86.68

85.42

84.96

84.58

83.94

83.64

82.93

81.13

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

58.88

58.62

58.48

58.24

58.12

57.94

57.36

57.10

56.85

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

SYBEANIDR
RMSEED

R4

R3

R2

R1

658

652

646

642

18-AUG -2017

3042

3012

2982

2964

18-AUG -2017

3781

3743

3705

JEERAUNJHA 18-AUG -2017

19675

19465

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

4033

TMC

18-AUG -2017

8292

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

636

634

628

622

2952

2934

2922

2892

2862

3684

3667

3646

3629

3591

3553

19255

19135

19045

18925

18835

18625

18415

3960

3887

3843

3814

3770

3741

3668

3595

8018

7744

7569

7470

7295

7196

6922

6648

640

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

18-AUG -2017

687

672

657

651

642

636

627

612

597

SYBEANIDR

18-AUG -2017

3241

3149

3057

3011

2965

2919

2873

2781

2689

RMSEED

18-AUG -2017

3822

3753

3727

3684

3658

3615

3546

3477

JEERAUNJHA

18-AUG -2017

21308

20588

19868

19526

19148

18806

18428

17708

16988

GUARSEED10

18-AUG -2017

4545

4307

4069

3987

3831

3749

3593

3355

3117

TMC

18-AUG -2017

9362

8744

8126

7749

7508

7131

6890

6272

5654

3891

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
✍ GOLD
Gold prices edged lower on Monday, pulling back from their highest level in around two months as
concerns about tensions between the U.S. and North Korea eased. Comex gold futures dipped $1.80, or
around 0.1%, to $1,292.18 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET (0645GMT). It rose to its highest since June 6 at
$1,298.10 in the prior session. The yellow metal notched a third-straight day of gains on Friday, capping
its strongest weekly rise in four months as simmering North Korean tensions buoyed haven demand for
precious metals. Geopolitical concerns appeared to fade on Monday as U.S. Secretary of Defense Jim
Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that the Trump administration would continue to seek
diplomatic resolutions with Pyongyang. Meanwhile, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo
and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, in separate Sunday talk show appearances, said there was
no indication war with North Korea will break out. The soothing comments came after Present Donald
Trump said late last week that military options against the hermit state were “locked and loaded”. Market
players looked ahead to a busy week of economic data, including the monthly retail sales report on
Tuesday, for further clues on the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders will also focus on
minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting due Wednesday, as they look for more hints on how the central
bank plans to pare back its balance sheet. Markets remain skeptical the Fed will raise interest rates again
this year, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, due to worries over the subdued inflation
outlook, but it is widely expected to start the process of reducing its balance sheet by September.
Gold's rally in recent weeks may be its first boosted by Twitter, but for the gains to sustain it will likely
take more than just the ramping up of global geopolitical tensions amid bellicose tweets from U.S.
President Donald Trump. Spot gold XAU= has jumped 7 percent from its recent intra-day low on July 10
to close at $1,288.81 an ounce on Aug. 11, it's highest in two months. The precious metal is up 12 percent
since the end of last year, and while there have been other factors behind the gains, the froth in the rally is
almost certainly down to its appeal as a safe haven in times of heightened political risk. Trump's use of the
social media site Twitter to threaten "fire and fury" against North Korea certainly raised the tensions
around the isolated dictatorship's pursuit of nuclear weapons capable of reaching the continental United
States. The U.S. President later doubled down on his tweet, saying perhaps it didn't go far enough, raising
fears that Trump would go as far to consider a pre-emptive strike on North Korea, a move that could
escalate into retaliatory attacks on neighbours and U.S. allies South Korea and Japan. The geopolitical
tensions stoked by Trump are grist to the mill for gold, but it's also likely the case that a sustainable rally
for the yellow metal can't be built on the threat of conflict alone.
Gold prices gained slightly in Asia on Monday in a buy regional data day, but North Korea off the boil for

now. Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.05% to $1,293.36 a troy ounce on the Comex division of
the New York Mercantile Exchange. In China, fixed-asset investment rose 8.3%, compared with a 8.6%
gain seen in July on year along with industrial production which gained 6.4%, missing a 7.2% gain seen
and retail sales increased 10.4%, compared to a 10.8% gain seen. Japan's second quarter surged an
unexpected 4..0% on year as investment in plant and equipment lifted sentiment for the sixth straight
quarter of expansion, official data released on Monday showed for the fastest pace of growth since
January-March 2015. The figure beat a 2.5% gain expected on year and saw the quarter pace at 1.0, well
above the 0.6% seen. Japan, second quarter GDP was expected to rise a provisional 2.5% on year and at a
0.6% pace on quarter. Ahead this week, the Fed’s latest meeting will be in focus as investors look for
more hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. A report on U.S. retail sales will also be closely
watched. Elsewhere, UK data on inflation and employment will be in the spotlight amid ongoing concerns
over the economic fallout from Brexit. Last week, gold prices rose to a two-month high on Friday
following a weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation report that investors worried would delay plans for
another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. A Labor Department report showed that U.S.
consumer prices edged up 0.1% in July from the prior month, bringing the annual increase in the
consumer price index to 1.2%. The data was the latest in a string of weak inflation readings that investors
worry will make the Fed more cautious about plans for a third rate hike this year. Futures traders are
pricing in about a 35% chance of another rate hike by December, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate
Monitor Tool.
Gold found support in Asia on Friday as tensions between North Korea and Washington show no signs of
abating and investors looked ahead to data out of top gold buyer India on FX reserves for July and
industrial production for June. Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New
York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.29% to $1,293.79 a troy ounce. Overnight, gold prices jumped to twomonth highs Thursday, as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea remained while a duo
of disappointing U.S. economic reports weighed on the dollar, lifting demand for the precious metal. Risk
aversion continued for the second day in a row, lifting demand for the safe-haven gold, a day after North
Korea said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located. The
release of inflation and initial jobless claims data failed to offset the flight to safety as both reports
undershot expectations, stoking uncertainty over the Fed’s ability to raise rates later this year.The
producer-price index fell 0.1% in July, the Labor Department said Thursday, the first drop since last
August. The core rate, which excludes volatile categories of food, energy and trade, was flat in the month.
Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted
244,000 for the week ended August 5, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists had forecast
claims falling to 240,000. New York Fed President William Dudley, however, suggested Thursday, the
central bank was on track to raise interest rates once more and begin shedding some bond holdings this
year. "Our outlook anticipates a continued moderate growth trend, with some further strengthening in the
labor market and an increase in inflation over the medium term toward our objective of 2 percent,"
Dudley said in prepared remarks that did not specifically mention monetary policy.

The price of gold rose on Thursday for the third straight day, reaching a two-month high as another
exchange of threats by the United States and North Korea prompted investors to buy bullion as a safehaven asset. North Korea said it was completing plans to fire four intermediate-range missiles over Japan
to land near the U.S. Pacific island territory of Guam. around the world fell sharply, and investors moved
into safer assets. "For now, the uptrend is very much intact in gold, reacting to external geopolitical
events," said commodities analyst Jonathan Butler of Mitsubishi in London. The spot gold price XAU=
had gained 0.6 percent at $ 1,284.71 an ounce by 1:57 p.m. EDT after reaching its highest level since June
8 at $1,287.73. It rose 1.3 percent in the previous session, the biggest increase since mid-May. U.S. gold
futures GCcv1 for December delivery settled up 0.8 percent at $1,290.10. "The war of words between the
leaders of the U.S. and North Korea continue to dominate investor sentiment," said Forex.com technical
analyst Fawad Razaqzada. "Gold and silver are higher, thanks mainly to their status as safe-haven
commodities. Another source of support to bullion was data showing U.S. producer prices unexpectedly
fell in July, pointing to a further moderation in inflation that could delay a Federal Reserve interest rate
increase. U.S. inflation readings should rise, even while it takes longer for the annual measures preferred
by the Fed to rebound, New York Fed President William Dudley said. market was waiting for U.S.
consumer inflation data on Friday that would offer more clues about future Fed decisions. UBS said in a
note it had increased its long position in gold as forward real interest rates declined and commodity prices
increased, while it also added to longs in the platinum group metals as investment demand rose. Physical
gold demand, however, was sluggish in India, while the rally in global prices dampened buying elsewhere
in Asia and holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund GLD were unchanged on
Wednesday. least in this segment, investors apparently remain reluctant to seek gold's safe haven,"
Norbert Rücker, head of macro and commodity research at Julius Baer, said in a note.
Gold demand in India remained sluggish this week as local prices jumped to their highest level in nearly
three months and a rally in global prices of the precious metal dampened fresh buying elsewhere in Asia.
"Demand is still weak. From the next week demand could improve due to festivals," Local gold prices
MAUc1 jumped to 28,996 rupees per 10 grams on Thursday, the highest level since June 14. Dealers in
India were offering a discount of up to $7 an ounce on official domestic prices this week, down from a
discount of $11 last week, which was the highest since Sept. 24, 2016. The domestic price includes a 10
percent import tax. "South Korean supplies are landing without import duty. Those supplies are being sold
at a discount," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. India's gold imports will probably drop in
the second half of the year from the first six months after jewellers rushed to stock up ahead of new taxes
introduced on July 1, the World Gold Council said last week. top consumer China, premiums were little
changed from the previous week at $5 to $6 an ounce. Last week, premiums were in a $4-$7 range.
"There has only been investment buying in the region this week. Physical demand has been very quiet
because of the high global prices," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong
Kong. Global gold prices hit their highest in two months on Thursday as the United States and North

Korea exchanged more threats, prompting investors to buy bullion as a safe-haven asset. Gold has risen
about 1.7 percent so far this week.
Gold prices continued higher on Thursday, adding to their biggest one-day gain in three months amid
simmering geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Comex gold futures rose to a daily
peak of $1,285.60 a troy ounce, a level not seen since June 8. It was last at $1,284.37 by 3:10AM ET, up
$5.00, or around 0.4%. The yellow metal scored its sharpest daily rise since mid-May on Wednesday as
investors piled into safe haven assets amid intensifying tensions between the U.S. and North Korea, with
Pyongyang saying it is considering plans to attack Guam. A spokesman for the Korean People's Army said
in a statement that it was "carefully examining" plans for a missile attack on the U.S. Pacific territory,
which has a large American military base. The comments came after U.S. President Donald Trump
warned North Korea that any threat to the U.S. would be met with "fire and fury". Meanwhile, investors
looked ahead to a key batch of U.S. economic data to gauge how it will impact the Federal Reserve's view
on monetary policy. Reports on producer prices and weekly jobless claims are both due at 8:30AM ET.
Comments from New York Fed President William Dudley will also be in focus. He is due to speak at
10AM ET about wage inequality in his region. Dudley's comments will be scrutinized to gauge whether
the Fed's view on low inflation appears to be transitory or a longer term problem. Gold has been wellsupported in recent weeks as fading expectations for a third Fed rate hike this year due to weak inflation
combined with deepening political turmoil in the White House boosted the appeal of the precious metal.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures gained 15.6 cents, or around 1%, to $17.01 a troy ounce, the
highest since June 15.
Gold prices held early gains in Asia on Thursday with the market alert for more of the war of words
between North Korea and Washington stoking geopolitical tension in the region. Gold futures for
December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.14% to
$1,281.06 a troy ounce. Gold prices spiked to one-week highs Wednesday, on the back of a surge in safe
haven demand, after North Korea said it is considering an attack on the U.S. pacific territory of Guam.
Safe-haven demand rose after North Korea said it was "carefully examining" a plan to strike Guam, where
a U.S. military base is located, shrugging off President Donald Trump’s earlier warning that further
threats to the United States will be met with "fire and fury. The surge in gold prices come a day after the
yellow metal snapped a three-day winning streak, as investors cheered U.S. job openings data that topped
expectations suggesting the U.S. labor market continues to strengthened, raising the prospect of the
Federal Reserve hiking rates later this year. The producer price index and the consumer price index data
due Thursday and Friday, will offer market participants fresh insight on whether the pace of inflation
remains subdued – the slowdown inflation has been a key concern for the Federal Reserve. The U.S.
central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in July amid concerns about the slowdown in inflation but
expressed optimism that its long-term target of about 2% inflation would be met.
Gold rose to the highest in nearly two months on Wednesday, after North Korea said it is considering an

attack on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam and U.S. President Donald Trump boasted of the strength of
the American nuclear arsenal. was on track for its biggest one-day rise in nearly three months. The
tensions rattled global markets, sending investors out of equities and into the safety of the Swiss franc,
government debt and gold. The VIX "fear gauge" of expected volatility on the S&P 500 hit its highest in
more than a month. "The market hates uncertainty and that's certainly what we have now," said Ole
Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "But looking ahead, unless we start to see a conflict
break out or a major stock market correction, (gold) is capped at 1,295, (although) the upside at the
moment is the favored direction." Spot gold XAU= was up 1.25 percent at $1,275.98 an ounce by 2:30
p.m. EDT , after reaching its highest since mid-June at 1276.10. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December
delivery settled up 1.3 percent at $1,279.30. The rally came after Tuesday's drop to a two-week low on
better-than-expected U.S. jobs data, while investors awaited U.S. inflation figures later this week for
further clues about the pace of interest rate rises. "We've had some competing forces play out over the
past 12 hours - the U.S. dollar was stronger off economic data, but that was quickly reversed with
President Trump's comments about North Korea.
Gold prices scored robust gains on Wednesday, after President Donald Trump warned North Korea it
would be "met with fire and fury" if it continued to make threats against the U.S. His comments came on
the back of a report that the hermit state had created a miniaturized nuclear weapon that could fit in its
missiles. Just hours after Trump's warning, Pyongyang replied it was "carefully examining" a plan to
strike Guam, where a U.S. military base is located. The escalating tension prompted investors to shun
riskier assets, such as stocks and high yielding currencies, and flock to traditional safe haven assets like
the yen, Swiss franc and gold. Comex gold futures jumped $11.40, or around 0.9%, to $1,274.11 a troy
ounce by 3:10AM ET. The yellow metal settled slightly lower on Tuesday, after touching its weakest level
since July 26 at $1,257.10, after JOLTs data showed a record amount of job openings. With no major
economic reports on Wednesday's calendar, market players looked ahead to monthly inflation indicators
due later in the week for fresh clues on the timing of the next Fed rate hike. A report on U.S. producer
prices for July is due out on Thursday and the consumer price inflation report will be released on Friday.
The yellow metal has been well-supported in recent weeks as fading expectations for a third Fed rate hike
this year combined with deepening political turmoil in the White House boosted the appeal of the
precious metal.
Gold gained in Asia on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula hit risk sentiment.
Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose
0.57% to $1,269.81 a troy ounce. North Korea said on Wednesday it is "carefully examining" plans for a
missile strike on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump told the
North that any threat to the United States would be met with "fire and fury." Earlier, China reported
consumer and producer prices for July with CPI up 0.1%, compared to a 0.2% gain seen on month and at
a 1.4% annual pace, compared to an expected 1.5% rise on year. PPI rose 5.5% as expected. Overnight,

gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, pressured by a rebound in the dollar, after U.S. job openings topped
forecasts, pointing to an improving labor market, lifting expectations the Federal Reserve will keep to its
plan to raise rates at least once more this year. Gold struggled to hold onto gains, as the dollar hit a nearly
two-week high, after U.S. job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 461,000 to a seasonally
adjusted 6.2 million, the highest level since the series started in December 2000, the Labor Department
said on Tuesday. Losses in the precious metal were limited, however, as some Fed members suggested
that the slowdown in inflation will continue to weigh on the Fed’s ability to raise rates even if the U.S. job
market continues to improve. "The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the
near term," Bullard said on Monday. The producer price index and the consumer price index data due
Thursday and Friday, is expected to provide market participants with fresh insight into the pace of
inflation. The slowdown in inflation, has weighed on the prospect of rate hikes later this year, pressuring
both the dollar and bond yields while boosting demand for the precious metal. Gold is sensitive to moves
in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
Gold prices edged higher in Asia on Tuesday with a weaker dollar bringing on physical buying interest in
India and China, the world's top two importers, ahead of China trade data later in the day. Gold futures for
December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.11% to
$1,266.03 a troy ounce. China is expected to report exports rose 10.9% in July year-on-year, down from
an 11.3% gain in June, while imports rose 16.6%, compared to a 17.2% increase in the previous month for
a trade balance surplus of $46.08 billion, wider than the $42.77 billion in June. Overnight, gold prices
traded slightly above breakeven on Monday, bouncing off session lows after the dollar came under
pressure following comments from a top Federal Reserve official. Gold continued to pare losses,
following a slump on Friday on the back of strong nonfarm payrolls data suggesting the U.S. economy
could sustain further rate hikes while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that low interest rates are
“likely to remain appropriate” over the near term. "The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain
appropriate over the near term," Bullard said in slides prepared ahead of a speech to the America's Cotton
Marketing Cooperatives 2017 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S.
rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.
Gold prices drifted lower on Monday, as market players looked ahead to a busy week of economic data,
including monthly inflation indicators, for further clues on the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate
hike. Besides the inflation data, this week's calendar also features reports on JOLTS job openings,
nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, producer prices as well as weekly jobless claims. Investors will
also keep an eye out on a number of Fed speakers for any new insight on when and how the central bank
plans to pare back its massive balance sheet, with most of the focus falling on comments from New York
Fed President William Dudley. Markets remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates in December, according
to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, due to worries over the subdued inflation outlook, but it is
widely expected to start the process of reducing its balance sheet by September. Focus this week will also

be on headlines coming out of Washington, even as Congress slows down for August recess. The
investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump campaign's ties to Russia will remain on the agenda.
Comex gold futures for August were at $1,262.96 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET, down $1.60, or about
0.1%. It touched its lowest since July 26 at $1,259.80 on Friday, as the dollar jumped after a key report on
payrolls in July showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected. It ended the week down 0.4%,
its first weekly decline in four. Gold has been well-supported in recent weeks as fading expectations for a
third Fed rate hike this year combined with deepening political turmoil in the White House boosted the
appeal of the precious metal.
Gold prices fell in early Asia on Monday with attention on the dollar after gains last week on renewed
views the Fed may hike for a third time this year. Gold for August delivery fell 0.16% to $1,262.52 on the
Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Ahead in the week, Friday’s U.S. inflation figures
are seen as key as are comments by Fed speakers on interest rate and balance sheet unwinding views.
Last week, gold prices fell on Friday as a solid U.S. employment report for July revived expectations for
another interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year.
In Asia, The AIG Construction index rose to 60.5 in July from 56.0 in June, a major boost. Japan reported
its foreign reserves data for July with figures standing at $1.260 trillion from $1.260 trillion in June. The
Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs last month, beating
expectations for a gain of 183,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. The report also
showed that average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents or 0.3% last month to $26.36 an hour, the
largest monthly increase since October. Wages increased by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, matching
June’s increase. The uptick in wage growth indicated that inflationary pressures are firming. Markets
believe stronger inflation will enable the Fed to stick to its plans for a third interest rate hike this year.
Expectations of a faster pace of rate increases tend to weigh on gold, which is denominated in dollars and
struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Gold prices are up around 9%
this year, lifted in part by expectations that the Fed will take a gradual path toward tightening monetary
policy.
ENERGY
Oil prices slumped on Monday, as lingering concerns over a global supply glut weighed on sentiment.
The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract was at $48.80 a barrel by 3:25AM ET , down
4 cents, or around 0.1%. It slumped to its lowest in around two-and-a-half weeks at $ 47.98 in the prior
session. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London shed 10 cents,
or about 0.2%, to $52.00 a barrel. Oil prices settled higher on Friday, but still ended the week with a loss.
WTI fell 76 cents, or about 1.5%, last week, while Brent dipped 32 cents, or roughly 0.6%, amid
indications that OPEC members boosted production in July, despite the current pact to reduce output.
According to the International Energy Agency, OPEC's compliance with the cuts had fallen to 75% last
month, the lowest since the deal began in January. OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including
Russia, agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018 in

order to reduce a global supply glut and rebalance the market.
Oil prices dipped on Monday as a slowdown in Chinese refining activity growth cast doubts over its crude
demand outlook, while rising U.S. shale output suggested supplies would likely remain high. Brent crude
futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $52.00 per barrel at 0504 GMT, down
10 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at
$48.78 a barrel, down 4 cents, or 0.1 percent. Chinese refineries processed 0.4 percent more crude oil in
July than a year earlier at 45.5 million tonnes, or about 10.71 million barrels per day, data from the
National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. This would be the lowest amount on a daily basis since
September 2016, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. "Runs were slightly below our
expectations, as fuel demand growth remained tepid and stocks were brimming," said Harry Liu, a
downstream consultant with IHS Markit. the possible slowdown in China, the International Energy
Agency said on Friday that it expects 2017 oil demand growth of 1.5 million bpd, up from a previous
expectation of 1.4 million bpd. markets remain well supplied thanks to strong output. "Demand is
outperforming expectations amongst both developed and emerging markets... However, global crude
inventories remain bloated and there are considerable uncertainties heading into 2018," BMI Research
said in a note, including the possibility of rising supplies. Shale production in the largest U.S. oilfield
should rise by as much as 300,000 bpd by December, according to industry forecasts. Oil production from
the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is closely watched because its low costs and rapid
growth have pressured efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to drain a global
crude supply glut. energy companies added oil rigs for a second time in the last three weeks, extending a
15-month drilling recovery, but the pace of additions has slowed in recent months as firms cut spending
plans in reaction to declining crude prices.
Oil prices were steady early on Monday, supported by strong demand and falling inventories, but still
under pressure from high output. Brent crude futures, LCOc1 the international benchmark for oil prices,
were at $52.08 per barrel at 0048 GMT, down 2 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $48.85 a barrel, up 3 cents. ANZ bank said prices were being
supported by a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that crude oil stockpiles were now
below 2016 levels. Despite this, the IEA said that stocks remained 219 million barrels above a 5-year
average - a level that producer club OPEC is targeting with its output cuts. The agency also raised its 2017
demand growth forecast to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd in its previous monthly
report and said it expected demand to expand by a further 1.4 million bpd next year. the strong demand,
markets remain well supplied thanks to strong output. Shale production in the largest U.S. oilfield should
rise by as much as 300,000 bpd by December, according to industry forecasts. Oil production from the
Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is closely watched because its low costs and rapid growth
have pressured efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to drain a global crude
supply glut. energy companies added oil rigs for a second time in the last three weeks, extending a 15-

month drilling recovery, but the pace of additions has slowed in recent months as firms cut spending plans
in reaction to declining crude prices.
Crude gained in Asia on Friday ahead of weekly U.S. rig count figures that will set the near-term tone,
though tension on the Korean peninsula and the ability of OPEC and allies to keep output cuts on track
retain center stage. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery rose
0.14% to $48.66 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent rose 0.13% to $51.94 a
barrel. Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Thursday, as market participants questioned Opec’s
commitment to the global pact to curb production in the wake of a report showing crude output among the
group’s members rose in July. In a monthly report Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries raised its outlook for oil demand this year by 100,000 barrels a day, saying it now expects
growth of 1.37 million barrels a day in 2017. The cartel also said, however, that production from the
group rose further in July, as exempt producers – Nigeria and Libya – and top exporter Saudi Arabia
increased output. This Opec report stoked fears that Opec and its allies’ may not be able to stem the glut
in supplies by only curbing production, offsetting optimism from the prior session, when crude prices
snapped a two-day losing streak, following bullish U.S. inventory data. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by
roughly 6.5m barrels in the week ended Aug 4, confounding expectations of a draw of about only 2.5m
barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. It was the sixth-straight weekly
decline. The uptick in Opec production comes a few days after the group met in Abu-Dhabi to address
concerns of falling compliance. The outcome of the meeting, however, failed to lift sentiment as the group
offered little in the way of tangible solutions to increase compliance. The meeting “proved fruitful and
“will help facilitate full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, which participating countries
remain steadfast in their commitment to fulfil.” Opec noted in a statement on its website.
Oil prices were little changed in early Asian trading on Friday after retreating in the previous session,
weighed by ongoing global glut concerns despite a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude, LCOc1 the global benchmark, was up 1 cent at $51.91 per barrel by 0044 GMT. U.S. West
Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was up 3 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $48.62 a barrel.
Oil prices touched a two-and-half month high on Thursday, but retreated to close down around 1.5
percent, with U.S. prices slipping back below $50 per barrel amid ongoing oversupply concerns. "Crude
oil prices failed to hold recent gains, with a nervous market starting to doubt recent falls in inventories. ....
Supply side issues also weighed on prices, with data showing Libyan production in July hit its highest
level for the year," ANZ bank said in a note. Official data showed crude inventories in the United States,
the world's top oil consumer, fell sharply by 6.5 million barrels in the week ending to Aug. 4, as refiners
ramped up run rates to the highest in 12 years due to strong demand. But doubts remain over whether
enough crude would be consumed to end a global glut after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries reported on Thursday another increase in the oil cartel's production, even though it raised
outlook for oil demand in 2018. said its oil output rose by 173,000 barrels-per-day in July to 32.87 million

bpd. Faced with lingering global glut woes, OPEC and some non-OPEC members including Russia in
May extended oil production cuts to reduce 1.8 million bpd. Meanwhile, Russian oil producer Gazprom
Neft SIBN.MM is considering resuming production in mature fields after the OPEC-led production cut
agreement, a representative of the company said on Thursday. output from Nigeria and Libya is further
undermining the oil producers' attempt to limit oil production. Nigeria and Libya are exempted from
curbing output as they seek to restore supplies hurt by internal conflicts.
Oil prices continued higher on Thursday, as data showing a sixth consecutive week of declines in U.S.
crude inventories added to optimism that the market was rebalancing. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude September contract was at $49.80 a barrel by 3:35AM ET, up 24 cents, or around 0.5%. Elsewhere,
Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London tacked on 32 cents, or about 0.6%,
to $53.02 a barrel. It touched its highest since May 25 at $53.14 earlier in the session. Oil futures finished
higher on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a sharp decline in crude inventory. U.S. oil
inventories fell by 6.5 million barrels at the end of last week to 474.4 million barrels, much more than the
expected drop of around 2.7 million barrels. However, the report also showed that gasoline inventories
rose by 3.4 million barrels, disappointing expectations for a decline of 1.4 million barrels. For distillate
inventories including diesel, the EIA reported a fall of 1.7 million barrels. Meanwhile, market players
awaited monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the International
Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. OPEC will publish its monthly assessment
of oil markets at around 7:00AM ET on Thursday. It includes figures on the state of global crude
stockpiles for July. On Friday, the International Energy Agency will release its own monthly report on
global oil supply and demand. The data will give traders a better picture of whether a global rebalancing
is taking place in the oil market. OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel, including Russia, agreed since
the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018 in order to reduce a
global supply glut and rebalance the market. However, so far, the deal has had little impact on global
inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and
Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.
Crude oil prices were narrowly mixed in Asia on Thursday with sentiment cautious on risk on the Korean
peninsula and as investors await regular data points on supply and demand globally. On the New York
Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery was flat at $49.56 a barrel, while on London's
Intercontinental Exchange, Brent rose 0.06% t$52.73 a barrel. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on
Wednesday, as investors cheered data showing a sharp decline in supplies of U.S. crude but gains were
capped by a surprise uptick in gasoline stockpiles. Crude snapped a two-day losing streak, after a report
from the Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles fell by more than expected last
week, pointing to an uptick in refinery activity. Refiners processed nearly 17.6 million barrels of crude,
surpassing a record set in May and the most for any week since the U.S. Department of Energy started
keeping data in 1982. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 6.5m barrels in the week ended Aug 4,
confounding expectations of a draw of about only 2.7m barrels. It was sixth-straight week of falling crude
inventories. Gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, unexpectedly rose by

roughly 3.4m barrels against expectations of a draw of 1.5m barrels while distillate stockpiles fell by
1.7m barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 131,000 barrels. The rise in gasoline stockpiles,
however, capped gains in oil prices and confounded investors as the summer driving season is usually
associated with an uptick in demand. The mostly upbeat crude inventory report from the EIA offset earlier
negative sentiment, as investors mulled over a statement from Opec concerning the outcome of its
meeting on compliance.
Crude futures fell for a third day in early Asian trading as the market shrugged off a bigger than expected
fall in U.S. inventories reported by an industry group as doubts linger over OPEC's ability to restrain
supply as promised. Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 21 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $51.93 a barrel
at 0027 GMT. In the previous session, it settled down 0.4 percent. U.S. light crude CLc1 was down 15
cents, or 0.3 percent, at $49.02 a barrel, after falling 0.4 percent on Tuesday. Crude stockpiles in the U.S.
dropped more than expected last week as imports declined and refinery runs increased, while gasoline
inventories increased unexpectedly, the American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday. Crude
inventories declined by 7.8 million barrels in the week to 478.4 million, compared with analyst
expectations for a decrease of 2.7 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will
release its weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. But the market seems immune
to bullish signs of falling stockpiles as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other
major producers struggle to maintain compliance with a deal to cut output and drain U.S. Inventories.
"With only a few weeks left of the U.S. summer driving season, nvestors are starting to debate whether
the current OPEC production cuts will offset the subsequent falls in demand in North America. A recovery
in Libya's oil output and higher production in Nigeria have complicated OPEC's efforts to curb supply,
while U.S. shale oil drillers have ramped up production. Libya and Nigeria are OPEC countries that are
exempt from the agreement to limit production through March 2018.
Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on Tuesday following a recovery in output at Libya's largest oil field
and as doubts about OPEC-led production cuts continue to drag. Global benchmark Brent crude futures
LCOc1 were down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $52.26 a barrel at 0629 GMT, after dipping 0.1 percent in
the previous session. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $49.32 a barrel,
having fallen 0.4 percent on Monday. Production from Libya's 270,000 barrels-per-day Sharara field was
returning to normal after a brief disruption when armed protesters broke into a control room in the coastal
city of Zawiya, the National Oil Corporation said on Monday. was exempted from a push to cut global
production and bolster oil prices led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other
big producers like Russia. The recovery of the North African country's output has complicated OPEC's
efforts to curb supply, fuelling doubts over the effectiveness of the production cuts. Libya churned out
1.03 million bpd in July, according to the latest Reuters survey. OPEC output hit a 2017-high in July and
its exports marked a record. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, plans to cut supplies to most
buyers in Asia by as much as 10 percent in September, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Asian buyers
have been mostly shielded from the cuts until now. from a joint OPEC and non-OPEC technical
committee are meeting in Abu Dhabi on Monday and Tuesday to discuss ways to boost compliance with

the deal to cut 1.8 million barrels per day in production. Assuming that nothing comes from OPEC/nonOPEC's technical meeting in Abu Dhabi today, oil's near term fate will most likely be determined by the
official U.S. Department of Energy inventory data tomorrow evening Asia time.
Oil prices edged lower on Monday, as market players looked ahead to a highly-anticipated meeting of
some oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC producers to assess how the group can increase
compliance with production cuts that began at the start of the year. The two-day gathering that begins
later in the day in Abu Dhabi will discuss members’ compliance levels to the agreed-upon global
production limits that run through March 2018. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September
contract was at $49.34 a barrel by 3:10AM ET, down 22 cents, or around 0.4%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for
October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London shed 23 cents to $52.19 a barrel. Oil prices
settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but they still
ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal to curb
production. OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, including Russia, have agreed since the start of the
year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the deal has had little impact
on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as
Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output. In the week ahead, market
participants will focus on monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the
International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. The data will give traders a
better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market.
Crude oil prices eased in Asia on Monday with a supply meeting in Abu Dhabi and monthly reports later
in the week expected to set the tone. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract fell
0.12% to $49.522 a barrel. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October
delivery dipped 0.10% to $52.37 a barrel. Later on Monday, a meeting kicks off oil ministers from some
OPEC and non-OPEC countries set for Monday and Tuesday in Abu Dhabi to discuss compliance to
agreed upon global production limits that run through March 2018. In the week ahead, market participants
will focus on monthly reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties and the
International Energy Agency to assess global oil supply and demand levels. The data will give traders a
better picture of whether a global rebalancing is taking place in the oil market. Last week, oil prices
settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but they still
ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal to curb
production. Friday's gains came after weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes
showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 765 last week. It was the second
decline in the past three weeks, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth.
Oil prices settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but
they still ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal

to curb production. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract tacked on 55 cents, or
around 1.1%, to end at $49.58 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange
in London, Brent oil for October delivery rose 41 cents, or about 0.8%, to settle at $52.42 a barrel by
close of trade. Friday's gains came after weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes
showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 765 last week. It was the second
decline in the past three weeks, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth. Despite
Friday's upbeat performance, WTI lost 13 cents, or about 0.3%, for the week, while Brent dipped 10
cents, or roughly 0.2%, amid indications that OPEC exports rose to their highest level of the year, despite
the current pact to reduce output. OPEC and some non-OPEC producers have agreed since the start of the
year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the deal has had little impact
on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as
Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.

BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :
Trading Ideas:
NICKEL ➢ Nickel trading range for the day is 666.7-698.5.
➢ Nickel dropped as investors dialled down risky assets amid tensions on the Korean peninsula and
locked in profits from a recent rally.
➢ The Philippines is expected to export approximately 4.65 million wet tonnes in July, and Ni content in
ore exports is estimated at 39,300 tonnes in July.
➢ LME benchmark nickel closed the day down 3 percent at $10,660 a tonne after gaining nearly a quarter
over the past month, touching a four-month peak.
COPPER ➢ Copper trading range for the day is 405-416.6.
➢ Copper prices recovered from lows despite of indications that physical demand in China was faltering.
➢ Copper inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 17,062 tonnes to 207,777 tonnes in
past week, which is the peak from June 1.
➢ According to China Customs, China imported 390,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and copper semis
in July, up 8.3% YoY.
ZINC ➢ Zinc trading range for the day is 183.6-188.4.
➢ Zinc dropped as investors shunned risky assets amid tensions on the Korean peninsula and secured

profits after a recent rally.
➢ Zinc inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin were 120,300 tonnes this past week, data
showed.
➢ Zinc ore production decreased due to lower ore grade, environmental protection and weather reasons.
ALUMINIUM ➢ Aluminium trading range for the day is 128.3-131.5.
➢ Aluminium prices gained amid worries about supplies from China have been reinforced by Shandong
province.
➢ China's aluminum production hit its second highest on record in June while SHFE stocks are at fouryear highs.
➢ Meanwhile, premiums for delivery of aluminum held in China's bonded zones sank to one-year lows in
the week, although premiums have since partially recovered
BASE METAL

✍ COPPER

( 12 - AUG - 2017 )

Copper prices moved down by 0.35 per cent to Rs 410.80 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
indulged in reducing their positions amid low demand at the spot markets.Besides, profit-booking kept
pressure on metal prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August fell by Rs
1.45, or 0.35 per cent, to Rs 410.80 per kg, in a business turnover of 777 lots. Likewise, the metal for
delivery in far-month November traded lower by Rs 1.35, or 0.32 per cent, to Rs 417.10 per kg in eight
lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper prices at futures trade to a weak demand at the domestic spot
markets amid profit-booking at higher levels, led to the decline in copper prices in futures trade.
✍ NICKEL

( 12 - AUG - 2017 )

Nickel prices declined by 0.39 per cent to Rs 683.40 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down
their bets, driven by easing demand in the spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for
delivery in September fell by Rs 2.70, or 0.39 per cent, to Rs 683.40 per kg, in a business turnover of 10
lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in current month shed Rs 1.60, or 0.23 per cent, to Rs 679.80 per kg
in 524 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants on the back of sluggish demand from
alloy-maker in the spot market and profit-booking, mainly influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

✍ NICKEL ( 11 - AUG - 2017 )
Nickel prices eased by 0.86 per cent to Rs 657 per kg in futures market today as traders cut down their
bets, driven by subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot markets. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, nickel for delivery in August drifted lower by Rs 5.70 or 0.86 per cent to Rs 657 per kg in

business turnover of 1,391 lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery in September contracts shed Rs
5.50 or 0.82 per cent to Rs 662.10 per kg in 54 lots. Analysts said the fall in nickel prices in futures trade
is mostly attributed to tepid demand from alloy-makers at the domestic spot markets.
✍ COPPER

( 11- AUG - 2017 )

Copper prices softened by 0.30 per cent to Rs 409.30 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
offloaded their positions amid sluggish demand at the domestic spot markets even as it strengthened
overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in August declined by Rs 1.25, or 0.30
per cent to Rs 409.30 per kg in business turnover of 965 lots. Similarly, the metal for delivery in farmonth November contracts eased by 95 paise, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 415.95 per kg in 26 lots. Analysts
attributed the fall in copper futures to weak trends at the domestic markets owing to slackened demand
from consuming industries coupled with profit-booking. However, a firm trend on the London Metal
Exchange where copper prices hit two-year peaks as soaring steel and iron ore prices in China brightened
the outlook for growth and industrial demand in the world's largest metals consumer, capped the fall at
futures trade here, they added. Globally, copper for three-month delivery ended higher 0.7 per cent at
USD 6,414 per tonne at the LME.

✍ ZINC

( 10 - AUG - 2017 )

Zinc futures fell 0.19 per cent today as participants cut down their bets on a weak trend in base metals in
the spot markets due to profit-booking at current levels amid weak demand from consuming industries at
the spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in August contracts was trading
lower by 35 paise, or 0.19 per cent, to Rs 182.90 per kg, with a business turnover of 777 lots. The metal
for delivery in September fell by 30 paise, or 0.16 per cent to trade at Rs 13.45 per kg in a turnover of 12
lots. Traders said the fall in zinc prices in futures trade was mostly in tandem with a weak trend in the
base metals pack at the physical markets on weak demand.
✍ LEAD

( 09 - AUG - 2017 )

Lead prices were down 0.36 per cent to Rs 150.30 per kg in futures trading today as participants reduced
their exposure on the back of subdued demand from consuming industries in the spot market. \At the
Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August declined by 55 paise, or 0.36 per cent to Rs
150.30 per kg in business turnover of 419 lots. Metal for delivery in September contracts fell by a similar
margin to trade at Rs 151.55 per kg in four lot s. Marketmen said the weakness in lead futures was due to
a sluggish demand from battery-makers at the domestic markets.

NICKEL FUTURES DOWN ON PROFIT-BOOKING ( 08 - AUG - 2017 )
Nickel futures traded 0.42 per cent down at Rs 656.20 per kg today as participants cut down their

holdings to book profits at current levels. Besides, sluggish demand from alloy-makers in the domestic
spot market too weighed on metal prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this
month contracts shed Rs 2.80, or 0.42 per cent, to Rs 656.20 per kg in a business turnover of 208 lots.
Also, metal for delivery in the September fell by Rs 2.70, or 0.41 per cent to trade at Rs 661 per kg in five
lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly due to profit-booking by participants at
existing levels amid low demand at the domestic market from alloy-makers.
COPPER FUTURES MARGINALLY DOWN ON WEAK DEMAND ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Copper prices moved down by 0.30 per cent to Rs 405.50 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut
down their bets amid muted demand at spot markets. Copper for delivery in August shed Rs 1.20, or 0.30
per cent, to Rs 405.50 per kg in a business turnover of 247 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange.
Likewise, the metal for delivery in November traded lower by Rs 1.05 or 0.25 per cent to Rs 412.10 per
kg in 14 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by speculators amid a low demand at domestic spot
markets mainly led to fall in copper prices at futures trade here.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET ✍ CRUDE PALM OIL

( 12 - AUG - 2017 )

Crude palm oil prices went up by 1.22 per cent to Rs 506.40 per 10 kg in futures market today as
speculators created fresh positions, driven by pick up in demand at the spot market. Moreover, a tight
stock position due to fall in supplies from producing belts supported the upmove. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September rose by Rs 6.10, or 1.22 per cent, to Rs
506.40 per 10 kg, in a business turnover of 341 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in current month was
trading higher by Rs 4.70, or 0.94 per cent, to Rs 505 per 10 kg in 406 lots. Analysts said fresh positions
built up by participants due to uptick in demand in the physical markets, mainly led to the rise in crude
palm oil prices at futures trade.

✍ CHANA ( 12 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices spurted by 2.34 per cent to Rs 5,503 per quintal in futures trading today as traders built up
fresh positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand from dal mills amid pause in
supplies. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in September shot up
by Rs 126, or 2.34 per cent, to Rs 5,503 per quintal, with an open interest of 17,340 lots. Similarly, the
commodity for delivery in far-month October was trading higher by Rs 112, or 2.11 per cent, to Rs 5,411
per quintal in 12,920 lots. Analysts attributed the sharp rise in chana prices in futures trade to fresh
positions created by participants, tracking a firm trend at the domestic spot market on strong demand.

✍ CARDAMOM - ( 12 - AUG - 2017 )
Amid rising demand in the domestic spot market against restricted supplies from producing belts,
cardamom prices spurted by 3 per cent to Rs 1,162.20 per kg in futures trade today as participants built up
fresh positions. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in September climbed by Rs
33.80, or 3 per cent, to Rs 1,162.20 per kg, in a business turnover of 17 lots. On similar lines, the spice for
delivery in far-month October was trading higher by Rs 32.50, or 2.98 per cent, to Rs 1,122 per kg in
three lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders following pick up in domestic as well as exports
demand in the spot market against tight stocks position on fall in arrivals from producing regions, mainly
pushed up cardamom prices at futures trade.
✍ COTTONSEED OIL CAKE

( 11 - AUG - 2017 )

Cottonseed oil cake prices zoomed Rs 33 to Rs 1,447 per quintal in futures trade today after participants
widened their holdings in tune with strong demand at the physical markets. Market players said raising of
positions by speculators, tracking robust demand at the spot markets, led to the rise in cottonseed oilcake
prices in futures trade. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, cottonseed oilcake for
delivery in August went up by Rs 33, or 2.33 per cent, to Rs 1,447 per quintal, with an open interest of
12,870 lots. Cottonseed oilcake for delivery in September also climbed up by Rs 28, or 1.93 per cent, to
Rs 1,476 per quintal, having an open interest of 94,770 lots.
✍ CARDAMOM

( 11 - AUG - 2017 )

During the current week, guar futures closed higher for the third consecutive week followed by cardamom
and castor seed while edible oil and oil seed prices have recovered in the current week on expectation of
good physical demand as festival seasons are nearing. However, the prices of turmeric and mentha closed
in negative on account of corrections from the higher levels due to lower demand while coriander prices
have slipped further on higher supplies and steady demand.
✍ ONION - ( 11 - AUG - 2017 )
Retail onion prices rose to Rs 50 per kg in Kolkata, while rates in other metro cities also inched up to Rs
30-36 per kg due to tight supplies. The Agriculture and Consumer Affairs ministries are closely watching
the price situation and alerted all states to keep a check on hoarding and profiteering. Onion prices at
Lasalgaon in Maharasthra, Asia's biggest wholesale onion market, have risen to Rs 26.50 per kg on
Thursday from Rs 10.10 per kg on July 25 of this year. As per data maintained by the Consumer Affairs
Ministry, onion prices in Kolkata are ruling at Rs 50 per kg in retail markets and Rs 40 per kg in
wholesale markets on Friday.

✍ SUGAR - ( 10 - AUG - 2017 )

There are sufficient sugar stocks in India to take the country through the next sugar marketing year, trade
body Indian Sugar Mills Association said. This came amid reports that the government is contemplating
another round of sugar imports to meet the anticipated high demand during the upcoming festival season.
Sugar production fell below consumption in the 2016-17 marketing year, which ends on September 30.
This had led to a surge in sugar prices, forcing the government to direct mills to maintain demand-supply
balance and curtail the prices. But ISMA said this is not the case. We have been telling our members to
keep selling sugar and we will tell them again," said T Sarita Reddy, president at ISMA. "The current
prices are not higher than the previous year." The union government, which had increased the import duty
on sugar to 50 per cent in July, is reportedly contemplating cutting it to 25 per cent and allowing import of
sugar to augment supplies during the the festival season.
✍ CASTOR SEED - ( 10 - AUG -2017 )
Castor seed futures on National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) witnessed the highest
single day jump on Wednesday since March this year supported by highest ever monthly export volume of
castor meal and reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in Gujarat. The benchmark castor seed contract
on NCDEX for September delivery was up more than 3.21 % or Rs 147 today to trade at Rs. 4,727 per
quintal, its highest level in four and half months.
✍ MENTHA OIL -

( 09 - AUG - 2017 )

Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 0.80 per cent to Rs 1,152 per kg in futures trade today as speculators
trimmed positions, driven by sluggish demand from industries at the spot market. Besides, ample stocks
position on higher supplies from producing regions too influenced mentha oil prices. At the Multi
Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery this month traded lower by Rs 9.40, or 0.80 per cent, to Rs
1,152 per kg, in a business turnover of 638 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in September
declined by Rs 7.50, or 0.64 per cent, to Rs 1,166.50 per kg in 99 lots. Analysts said offloading of
positions by participants due to subdued demand from consuming industries at the spot market against
ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh mainly led to the decline in
mentha oil prices in futures trade.
✍ CARDAMOM - ( 09 - AUG - 2017 )
Cardamom prices fell 0.95 per cent to Rs 1,085 per kg in futures trade today as speculators booked profits
at prevailing levels amid easing demand in the spot market. Besides, sufficient stocks on higher arrivals
from the major producing regions too weighed on the prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange,
cardamom for delivery in September contract fell by Rs 10.40, or 0.95 per cent, to Rs 1,085 per kg, in a
business turnover of 53 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in October edged down by Rs 7.80, or 0.74
per cent, to Rs 1,045.90 per kg, with trading volume of just one lot. Marketmen said besides profit-taking
by speculators at existing levels, increased arrivals from producing regions, mainly put pressure on
cardamom prices in the futures market.

✍ CRUDE PALM OIL ( 08 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices were higher by 0.68 per cent to Rs 486.60 per 10 kg in futures trade today as traders
created fresh positions, supported by pick up in demand at the spot market. Moreover, a tight stock
position because of fall in supplies from producing belts fuelled the uptrend. At Multi Commodity
Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August rose by Rs 3.30, or 0.68 per cent, to Rs 486.60 per 10 kg,
in a business turnover of 170 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in September month went up by Rs 3.10,
or 0.64 per cent, to Rs 486.80 per 10 kg in 121 lots. Analysts said building up of positions by participants
driven by pick-up in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from producing regions mainly
kept crude palm oil prices higher in futures trade.
✍ TURMERIC

( 08 - AUG - 2017 )

Turmeric prices were up by 0.59 per cent to Rs 7,744 per quintal in futures trade today on account of
uptick in domestic as well as exports demand. Besides, restricted supplies following damage to crops due
to heavy rains too fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, turmeric
for delivery in current month was trading higher by Rs 46, or 0.59 per cent, to Rs 7,744 per quintal, with
an open interest of 6,715 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in September contract increased by Rs 38,
or 0.48 per cent, to Rs 7,832 per quintal in 12,420 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders
following an upsurge in domestic as well as export demand in the spot market against restricted supplies
from producing regions, mainly pushed up turmeric prices at futures trade.
CHANA FUTURES UP 1.52% ON SPOT DEMAND ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices spurted by 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152 per quintal in futures trade today as participants created
fresh positions, driven by rising demand from dal mills in the spot market. At the National Commodity
and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in October increased by Rs 77, or 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152
per quintal with an open interest of 12,270 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in September shot
up by Rs 60, or 1.17 per cent, to Rs 5,182 per quintal in 15,860 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up
by traders due to rising demand from dal mills in view of festive season amid restricted supplies from
producing belts, mainly pushed up chana prices at futures trade.
REFINED SOYA OIL FUTURES SOFTEN 0.41% ON SLUGGISH DEMAND ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices moved down by 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg in futures trading today as
speculators reduced their exposure amid subdued demand in the spot market against ample stocks
position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August
month fell by Rs 2.60, or 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg with an open interest of 33,390 lots. Likewise,
the oil for delivery in September month contracts shed Rs 2.35, or 0.36 per cent to Rs 642.65 per 10 kg in
48,790 lots. Analysts said cutting down of positions by traders on the back of easing demand in the spot
market against adequate stocks position mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices in futures trade.

AMPLE STOCKS DRAG WHEAT FUTURES DOWN BY 0.78% ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Wheat prices were lower by 0.78 per cent to Rs 1,654 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators
reduced their exposure amid sufficient stock position at the spot market. At the National Commodity and
Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in September fell by Rs 13, or 0.78 per cent, to Rs 1,654 per
quintal with an open interest of 9,230 lots. Likewise, the wheat for delivery in August contracts traded
lower by Rs 12, or 0.73 per cent, to Rs 1,633 per quintal in 12,930 lots. Analysts said trimming of
positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stockists position on increased supplies in the physical market
against lower demand from flour mills, mainly influenced wheat prices at futures trade.
CARDAMOM FUTURES SLIDE 0.78% ON LOW DEMAND ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Cardamom prices eased 0.78 per cent to Rs 1,098 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down
their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot markets on muted demand. In futures trading at the Multi
Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in September month declined by Rs 8.60, or 0.78 per cent
to Rs 1,098 per kg in business turnover of 19 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants
owing to subdued demand in the physical markets against adequate stocks mainly weighed on cardamom
prices in futures trade.
TEPID DEMAND DRAGS CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES DOWN BY 0.21% ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices softened by 0.21 per cent to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in futures trade today, as
speculators reduced their exposure amid sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stock
position. At Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Re 1, or 0.21
per cent to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in business turnover of 14 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in
September contracts shed 80 paise, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in 9 lots.Analysts said
trimming of positions by traders following easing demand in the spot market against ample stocks mainly
led to decline in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.
MENTHA OIL FUTURES SLIP 2.04% ON PROFIT-BOOKING ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 2.04 per cent to Rs 1,158 per kg in futures market today as speculators
booked profits, driven by fading demand from consuming industries at the spot markets. Ample stocks
position on higher supplies from producing regions also fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity
Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in September month fell by Rs 24.10, or 2.04 per cent, to Rs 1,158 per
kg in business turnover of 97 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in August month contracts traded
lower by Rs 22.70, or 1.94 per cent to Rs 1,147 per kg in 529 lots. Marketmen said besides profit-booking
by participants, decline in demand from consuming industries at existing levels in spot market and ample
stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh pulled down mentha oil prices in
futures trade.

CHANA FUTURES UP 1.52% ON SPOT DEMAND ( 07 - AUG- 2017 )
Chana prices spurted by 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152 per quintal in futures trade today as participants created
fresh positions, driven by rising demand from dal mills in the spot market. At the National Commodity
and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in October increased by Rs 77, or 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152
per quintal with an open interest of 12,270 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in September shot
up by Rs 60, or 1.17 per cent, to Rs 5,182 per quintal in 15,860 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up
by traders due to rising demand from dal mills in view of festive season amid restricted supplies from
producing belts, mainly pushed up chana prices at futures trade.
REFINED SOYA OIL FUTURES SOFTEN 0.41% ON SLUGGISH DEMAND ( 07 - AUG - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices moved down by 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg in futures trading today as
speculators reduced their exposure amid subdued demand in the spot market against ample stocks
position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August
month fell by Rs 2.60, or 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg with an open interest of 33,390 lots. Likewise,
the oil for delivery in September month contracts shed Rs 2.35, or 0.36 per cent to Rs 642.65 per 10 kg in
48,790 lots. Analysts said cutting down of positions by traders on the back of easing demand in the spot
market against adequate stocks position mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices in futures trade.

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