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Commodity Research Report 21 August 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf



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Title: Commodity research report
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BULLION METALS OUTLOOK GOLD - Gold on MCX settled down -0.44% at 28952 as investors looked ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy
meeting for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike. The U.S. dollar was on the defensive on Thursday after the
minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed policymakers were increasingly wary of recent softness in inflation
and could delay a rate hike. Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called
for halting interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's last
policy meeting. The U.S. central bank is roughly at the mid-point on its current path to normalize interest rates as the economy has
shown further improvement even without fiscal stimulus, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams told. European
Central Bank President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the U.S. Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference,
two sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus. The
economy in the 19 countries sharing the euro currency expanded by more than previously forecast in the second quarter compared
to the same quarter in 2016, the European Union's statistics office Eurostat said. Technically Gold market is under fresh selling as
market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.91% to settled at 6635 while prices down 128 rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting
support at 28844 and below same could see a test of 28737 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29014, a move above
could see prices testing 29077. .

GOLD CHART

Chart Details - On the Above given Daily Chart of Gold has Appiles the Bollinger Band Along with MACD A closer look at
price action sees gold holding within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation off the July lows. A rebound off
channel support early this week saw prices break to fresh yearly highs on Friday – but not before posting a massive 4-hour reversal
candle just ahead of channel resistance. Heading into next week, the threat remains for a deeper pullback here but the broader focus
remains higher while channel support /1278 with bullish invalidation set to the monthly open at 1268. Bottom line: we’re shifting
our weekly bias to neutral heading into next week while noting a constructive outlook while within this channel. Technically Gold
market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.91% to settled at 6635 while prices down 128
rupees. Now MCX Gold is getting support at 28844 and below same could see a test of 28737 levels, and resistance is now likely to
be seen at 29014, a move above could see prices testing 29077.

Monday 21Aug 2017

SILVER -Silver on MCX settled down -0.8% at 38863 but prices trimmed some of its losses after the release of downbeat U.S.
housing sector data dampened demand for the greenback. However, sentiment on the greenback became vulnerable after the U.S.
Commerce Department said on Wednesday that the number of housing starts and building permits both fell in July. Housing starts
dropped 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the Commerce Department said. Investors will parse the
minutes for clues on when Fed might start to unwind its $ 4.5 tn balance sheet as well as any update concerning the labor market and
inflation. In its July policy statement, the Federal Reserve raised concerns over the slow pace of inflation while pointing out that it
expects to begin unwinding its balance sheet “relatively soon”. Ahead of the release, New York Fed Chief Bill Dudley said earlier
this week, he would favour a third rate hike this year. Earlier, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while some price
readings have fallen this year, expectations are more stable, adding that monetary policy must anticipate changes in the data and not
react to temporary aberrations. She said there is roughly an equal chance that the Fed is forced to raise rates more or less
aggressively than currently planned in the months and years ahead. In its July policy statement, the Federal Reserve raised concerns
over the slow pace of inflation while pointing out that it expects to begin unwinding its balance sheet “relatively soon”. Technically
MCX Silver is getting support at 38450 and below same could see a test of 38036 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at
39133, a move above could see prices testing 39402.

SILVER CHART

Detail of Chart -Silver prices have been working their way higher in bullish fashion since the spike-day low created back on 7/10.
The past few days the rally stalled on a failure to maintain above the 200-day MA and after touching off on the upper parallel of the
channel since in place since July. The trend in the intermediate to long-term remains down, marked by the lower highs and lower lows,
however; as long as the lower parallel maintains then keeping a tentatively bullish stance in the near-term makes sense. Technically
MCX Silver is getting support at 38450 and below same could see a test of 38036 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at
39133, a move above could see prices testing 39402.

✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

139

137

135

134

133

COPPER

31- AUG-2017

430

425

420

417

415

CRUDE OIL

19-SEP-17

3399

3290

3181

3142

GOLD

05-OCT-2017

30331

29963

29595

LEAD

31-AUG-17

170

164

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

195

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

762

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

41491

ZINC

31-AUG-17

214

S2

S3

S4

131

129

127

412

410

405

400

3072

3033

2963

2854

2745

29379

29227

29011

28859

28491

28123

158

154

152

148

146

140

134

192

189

187

186

184

183

180

177

741

720

712

699

691

678

657

636

39220

38763

38463

37706

36949

194

189

40734 39977

39520

S1
132

209

204

202

199

197

184

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

31-AUG-17

149

143

137

134

131

128

125

119

113

COPPER

31-AUG-17

454

441

428

421

415

408

402

389

376

21-AUG-17

3582

3414

3246

3175

3078

3007

2910

2742

2574

GOLD

05-OCT-2017

31064

30421

29778

29470

29135

28827

28492

27849

27206

LEAD

31-AUG-17

192

179

166

158

153

145

127

114

NATURAL GAS

28-AUG-2017

217

207

197

191

187

181

177

167

157

NICKEL

31-AUG-17

820

777

734

719

691

676

648

605

562

SILVER

05-SEP-2017

43131

41759

40378

39725

39015

38353

37643

36271

34899

ZINC

31-AUG-17

243

227

211

205

195

189

163

147

CRUDE OIL

140

179

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

64.22

64.18

64.14

64.09

64.05

64.00

63.96

63.91

63.87

EURINR

29-AUG-17

75.68

75.58

75.48

75.33

75.23

75.08

74.98

74.83

74.68

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

82.92

82.66

82.55

82.42

82.31

82.18

82.07

81.95

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

60.83

60.74

59.83

59.38

58.47

58.02

57.11

56.66

55.78

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

82.79

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

S4

USDINR

29-AUG-17

64.86

64.68

64.50

64.29

64.11

63.90

63.72

63.51

63.22

EURINR

29-AUG-17

75.72

75.60

75.49

75.35

75.24

75.10

74.99

74.85

74.71

GBPINR

29-AUG-17

82.96

82.83

82.70

82.56

82.43

82.29

82.16

82.02

81.88

JPYINR

29-AUG-17

63.65

62.41

61.17

60.05

58.81

57.69

56.45

55.33

55.21

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

SYOREFIDR

20-SEP -2017

SYBEANIDR

R4

R3

R2

R1

642

641

640

639

20-SEP -2017

3188

3148

3108

3092

RMSEED

20-SEP -2017

3837

3817

3797

JEERAUNJHA

20-SEP -2017

19573

19443

GUARSEED10

20-SEP -2017

4315

TMC

20-SEP -2017

7962

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

638

637

636

635

3068

3052

3028

2988

2948

3785

3777

3765

3757

3737

3717

19313

19246

19183

19116

19053

18923

18793

4182

4049

3990

3916

3857

3783

3650

3517

7784

7606

7534

7428

7356

7250

7072

6894

639

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-SEP -2017

695

678

661

650

644

633

627

610

593

SYBEANIDR

20-SEP -2017

3362

3257

3152

3114

3047

3009

2942

2837

2732

RMSEED

20-SEP -2017

4195

4041

3887

3830

3733

3676

3579

3425

3271

JEERAUNJHA

20-SEP -2017

20793

20273

19753

19466

19233

18946

18713

18193

17673

GUARSEED10

20-SEP -2017

4568

4340

4112

4022

3884

3794

3656

3428

3200

TMC

20-SEP -2017

8052

7840

7628

7545

7416

7333

7204

6992

6780

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ INTERNATIONAL UPDATES ( BULLION & ENERGY )
✍ GOLD
Gold prices retreated on Friday after surging to their highest level in nine months earlier on the back of
concerns over U.S. political uncertainty and amid safe haven buying in the wake of a terrorist attack in
Spain. Gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.16% at $1,290.27 on the Comex division of the
New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $1,306.9 earlier, the highest level since November
11. The precious metal reversed course after reports that senior White House advisor Steven Bannon was
leaving his post, in what was seen as a positive for the Trump administration’s agenda. Ongoing
uncertainty over the economic agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump and doubts that the Fed will
deliver a third rate hike this year have been factors underpinning gold demand. Gold prices have risen
around 11% this year due in large part to the weaker dollar. The dollar surged to 14-year highs after
Trump’s November election on hopes that his plans for fiscal stimulus and tax reform would bolster the
economy. The dollar has since given up its post-election gains amid mounting concerns about the
administration’s ability to deliver on its agenda.
Gold prices were little changed after jumping to their highest in more than nine months on Friday as the
dollar retreated on political uncertainty in the United States and a suspected Islamist militant attack in
Spain boosted bullion's safe-haven appeal. Spain mounted a sweeping anti-terrorism operation on Friday
after a suspected militant drove a van into crowds in Barcelona, killing 13 people in what police suspect
was one of a planned wave of attacks. gold XAU= touched its highest since Nov. 9 at $1,300.80 per
ounce, and was up 0.03 percent at $1,287.95 an ounce by 3:20 p.m. EDT. Pressuring gold, however, was
the latest high-level shake up at the White House. U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday fired Stephen
Bannon as his chief strategist, removing a powerful and controversial figure known for far-right political
views. stocks rebounded in a volatile session on Friday, while the dollar cut losses and bond yields rose to
session highs after the news. ouster of White House chief strategist Steve Bannon, who had been vilified
perhaps more than anyone in the executive branch since Dick Cheney, put a tenuous floor on the
stumbling stock market and blunted gold's charge above $1,300," said Tai Wong, director of base and
precious metals trading for BMO Capital Markets in New York. "Gold and silver finish the day and the
week largely unchanged looking for direction." Markets were also uncertain about Trump's ability to push
ahead with policies after the disbandment of two high-profile business advisory councils over his remarks
on violence at a rally in Virginia last weekend. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery settled at
$1,291.60. "The recent soft patch in U.S. data has put serious doubts over whether there will be another
rate hike coming from the Fed this year.
Gold prices in India were at their widest discount to international prices in 11 months on Friday due to

sluggish demand and an influx of the precious metal sourced from South Korea. Indian traders are likely
to import 25 tonnes of gold from South Korea in July-August, taking advantage of a recent tax change
that allows imports without the usual 10 percent customs duty, industry officials told Reuters. Korean
supplies are distorting the market. Retail demand is still weak due to the price rise," said N. Vijay, a
bullion dealer from Salem in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. India had previously imposed a
12.5 percent excise duty on imports from countries with which it had signed Free Trade Agreements, such
as South Korea. But this was scrapped along with other local taxes when India introduced a Goods and
Services Tax from July 1. in India were offering a discount of up to $ 13 an ounce this week over official
domestic prices, compared with a discount of up to $ 7 an ounce last week. This week's discount was the
maximum since September 2016. Local gold prices MAUc1 jumped to 29,390 rupees per 10 grams on
Friday, the highest since June 8. "Retail buyers and jewellers are waiting for prices to correct. They are
not comfortable in buying above 29,000 rupees," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank.
Gold prices moved higher on Friday, hovering close to a recent two-month peak, after a terrorist attack in
Spain boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Comex gold futures were up around $1.95, or about 0.14%,
to $1,293.12 a troy ounce by 3:00AM ET, not far from a two-month high of $1,298.10 reached late last
week. The precious mental found support after a van rammed into pedestrians in a crowded tourist area of
Barcelona on Thursday evening, killing at least 13 people and injuring 100 others. The Islamic State
claimed responsibility for the incident. Spanish police said that two men had been arrested so far. Gold
prices were also boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar, after eight chief executives quit two business advisory
councils on Wednesday in protest over U.S. President Donald Trump’s controversial remarks on weekend
violence in Virginia. The U.S. President reacted to the departures by disbanding the councils – the
American Manufacturing Council and the Strategic and Policy Forum. White House Economic Adviser
Gary Cohn denied rumors of his possible departure late Thursday. However, growing opposition to
Trump’s positions, including from within his own party, have fueled concerns over the administration’s
ability to implement its political agenda. The dollar also remained under pressure after the minutes of the
Fed’s July policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that members of the central bank remain
divided over the need to raise interest rates further this year, citing low inflation. The U.S. dollar index,
which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was
down 0.11% at 93.54. The precious metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity
cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a
threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
Gold prices rose sharply on Thursday, climbing back toward their highest level in more than two months
after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting hinted at a delay in further rate hikes. Comex gold
futures gained around $11.00, or about 0.9%, to $1,293.72 a troy ounce by 3:15AM ET, not far from a
two-month high of $1,298.10 touched late last week. Gold prices finished higher on Wednesday as news
that two White House business advisory groups have disbanded prompted a late-session turn higher for

the yellow metal. Gold gained further after the minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting showed
policymakers were increasingly wary of recent softness in inflation and could delay a rate hike. Futures
traders are pricing in about a 40% chance of a rate hike by the end of the year, according to
Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, down from roughly 50% before the Fed minutes. The precious
metal is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets
such as bullion. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series
of increases. Market players will now turn their attention to data on weekly jobless claims and the
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey at 8:30AM ET to gauge the strength of the world's largest
economy and how it will impact the Fed's view on monetary policy.
Investors took advantage of more confusion about Fed policy on rates and took the precious metal higher
in Asia on Thursday after minutes released overnight casts some doubt on a third hike this year. Gold
futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.80%
to $1,293.21 a troy ounce. Fed minutes showed an increased debate about another rate hike this year and
the political backlash against Donald Trump's remarks on racist confrontations this passed weekend in
Virginia weighed. The divide appeared in minutes released from the Federal Open Market Committee's
July meeting, when central bank policymakers voted to hold the target rate to a range of 1% to 1.25%.
The summary portrays views that inflation ultimately will get to the Fed's 2% target but is clearly not
there yet. Earlier, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that while some price readings have fallen
this year, expectations are more stable, adding that monetary policy must anticipate changes in the data
and not react to temporary aberrations. She said there is roughly an equal chance that the Fed is forced to
raise rates more or less aggressively than currently planned in the months and years ahead. Overnight,
gold prices turned positive on Wednesday, on the back of weaker U.S. housing data. Housing starts
dropped 4.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the Commerce Department said
on Wednesday.
Gold prices continued lower on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s
latest policy meeting for further hints on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike and clues on how the central
bank plans to pare back its balance sheet. The Fed will release minutes of its most recent policy meeting
later in the day at 2:00PM ET. The central bank left interest rates unchanged following its meeting on July
26 and said it expected to start shrinking its massive holdings of bonds "relatively soon". Policymakers
also noted weakness in U.S. inflation more explicitly than before. Market players will also eye data on
U.S. housing starts and building permits at 8:30AM ET to gauge the strength of the world's largest
economy and how it will impact the Fed's view on monetary policy. Comex gold futures were down
around $4.00, or about 0.3%, to $1,275.81 a troy ounce by 2:55AM ET. It fell to a one-week low of
$1,272.70 in the prior session. The yellow metal suffered its steepest one-day drop in nearly six weeks on
Tuesday, after strong data on U.S. retail sales and manufacturing activity kept alive the chance of another
Fed rate hike by the end of this year. Futures traders are pricing in about a 50% chance of a rate hike by
December, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, up from roughly 35% at the start of the
week.


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