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regime typology efficacy .pdf



Original filename: regime-typology-efficacy.pdf
Title: Regime Typology and Personal Efficacy
Author: Dominique Awis

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Regime Typology and Personal Efficacy
Dominique Awis
College of Charleston

10 April 2015

Introduction

Research Question
John Stuart Mill theorized that participation in the political
process will give an individual the belief that he/she has control
over his/her life.
I

Efficacy is the belief in the possibility that through one’s
actions, an individual can cause political, social, and economic
change.

In democratic regimes, individuals are permitted more access to
participate in the political process than in non-democratic regimes.
Will individuals living in democratic regimes be more likely to be
efficacious than individuals living in non-democratic regimes?

Introduction
Hypothesis
Ordered Effects: The higher the regime is on the democracy
index, the greater the probability of efficacy such that full
democracies will have the greatest probability, then flawed
democracies, then hybrid regimes, and finally authoritarian regimes.

Literature
I

Studies have shown that political participation influences
efficacy more so than efficacy influences participation.

I

The more efficacious an individual, the more the individual
believes he/she can master his/her environment, but not
necessarily his/her political environment.

I

One study of Polish students before and after democratization
shows democratization may increase political efficacy, but
personal efficacy is influenced by economic factors.

Data and Methods
Data
I

Dependent Variable Pew Global 2012 survey question:
1) Most people can succeed if they are willing to work hard.
2) Hard work is no guarantee of success for most people.

I

Independent Variable Pew Global 2012 survey of 21
countries sorted according to The Economist Intelligence Unit
”Democracy Index 2012”. The categories (on a scale of
increasing democracy) are authoritarian, hybrid regime, flawed
democracy, and full democracy.

Methods
A logistic regression analysis will be used to test for the likelihood
of efficacy, with democracy as one predictor as well as economic
variables as other possible predictors.

Results
(Intercept)
Regime Typology
Male
Age
Economic Situation
Ease of Becoming Wealthier than Parents
Parents’ Compared Economic Situation
Num. obs.
∗∗∗ p

< 0.001,

∗∗ p

−0.78∗∗∗
(0.07)
0.04∗∗
(0.01)
−0.03
(0.03)
−0.00∗∗∗
(0.00)
0.26∗∗∗
(0.02)
0.12∗∗∗
(0.02)
0.11∗∗∗
(0.01)
22989

< 0.01, ∗ p < 0.05

Table 1: Logistic Regression of Multiple Predictor Variables

Results
Regime Typology
1
2
3
4

Regime
Full Democracy
Flawed Democracy
Hybrid Regime
Authoritarian

Probability
0.58
0.61
0.63
0.55

Table 2: Predicted Probability of Efficacy Of Individual within Regime.

Results
Economic Situation
1
2
3
4

Economic Situation
Very Good
Somewhat Good
Somewhat Bad
Very Bad

Probability
0.72
0.64
0.52
0.50

Table 3: Predicted Probability of Efficacy Of Individual given Economic
Situation.

Conclusion
I

Since efficacy is correlated with regime typology to a
statistically significant degree, the null hypothesis can be
rejected.

I

However, the results do not show regime typology to
have an ordered effect, such that if the democracy index is
increased, the probability of efficacy will be greater.

I

The results show economic situation has an ordered effect
such that the better the economic situation the more likely an
individual will be efficacious.

Limitations
I

To better test Mill’s theory, Locus of Control could have
been used as the dependent variable rather than personal
efficacy.

I

The Economist Intelligence Unit measured the utilization of
political participation, not the access to political participation.


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