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5 PricePatterns 2008 .pdf

Original filename: 5_PricePatterns_2008.pdf
Title: 5 for 2008
Author: Eric Utley

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Top 5 Price Patterns to Shape 2008
We've put together a list of the five most important price patterns to watch (and
trade) in 2008. These price patterns, ranging from bullish continuation patterns to
bearish reversal patterns, are likely to shape the year in the market.
Our list of the five price patterns to watch in 2008 is a follow-up to the list of the Top 10
Price Patterns of 2007. Make sure to check it out if you haven't already.
We decided to limit the list of patterns to trade in 2008 to five candidates. These are
broader patterns that are applicable to most stocks and across multiple markets. Think
of the patterns as big pictures of what's likely to unfold across the markets this
year. These patterns are being shaped by big economic forces such as the credit
crunch, housing slump, low interest rates, and looming recession.
So, here they are, the Top 5 Price Patterns to Shape 2008:

Dow Jones Industrial Average - Bearish Triangle

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) completed a bearish triangle at the
beginning of the year with a breakdown below the 13,200 level. The bearish price
objective of the triangle is approximately 11,800!
The bearish triangle in the Dow is likely to shape a volatile first half of the year for
stocks, with an overall bearish bent.


Top 5 Price Patterns to Shape 2008
Gold - Bullish Triangle

We've been pounding the table on gold ($GOLD) for months and months. It appears as
if the yellow metal will continue to shine.
Gold prices traced another bullish triangle through November and December of last
year. The metal recently broke out and is poised to climb to $1,000 an ounce later this
Retail Sector - Bearish Wedge


Top 5 Price Patterns to Shape 2008
The retail sector has taken a tremendous tumble in the last six months. The S&P Retail
Index ($RLX) has traced one bearish continuation pattern after another. But the sector
appears to be heading even lower as the consumer starts to feel the pinch of the
housing bust and a slowing labor market.
The RLX just confirmed a bearish wedge with its breakdown below the 400 level. Look
for a retest of the previous support at 400 to offer good entry points into bearish
positions in the retail sector. A nice, diversified way to play the group is through the
Retail Sector HOLDRs (RTH).
Interest Rates - Bearish Flag

The bond market is forecasting many more rate cuts courtesy of the Federal Reserve.
It's unlikely to help the stock market in the short-term, but it's still actionable vis-à-vis the
many bond-related exchange traded funds available.
The bearish flag in the 10-year Treasury Note Yield ($TNX) signals lower interest
rates, which means higher bond prices. (Bond prices move inverse to yields.)
Defensive Stocks - Bullish Flags, Wedges, and Triangles


Top 5 Price Patterns to Shape 2008

Defensive stocks in general are poised for a solid 2008. We're not talking about defense
contractors. We're talking about consumer staples, health care, and utilities.
The low interest rate environment is forcing money managers to find yields elsewhere
such as the utility sector. The recent breakout from the bullish flag in the Utilities Select
Sector SPDR (XLU) reveals the move into utilities as a source of yield.
Meanwhile, the looming recession and slowing economy are doing wonders for stodgy
old sectors like food, tobacco, pharmaceuticals, and insurance. Look to these
groups to continue higher in the coming months. Bullish continuation patterns can be
found all over the place in these sectors:
ABT - Bullish Flag
CEG - Bullish Wedge
GENZ - Bullish Wedge
KO - Bullish Flag
WAT - Bullish Flag

BAX - Bullish Flag
ETR - Bullish Triangle
HUM - Bullish Wedge
MO - Bullish Flag
XTO - Bullish Flag


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