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Commodity Research Report 27 November 2017 Ways2Capital .pdf


Original filename: Commodity Research Report 27 November 2017 Ways2Capital.pdf
Title: COMMODITY CALLS OF THE WEEK
Author: w2c

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✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-NOV-2017

140.35

139.10

137.85

137.35

136.60

136.10

135.35

134.10

132.85

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

460.85

457.65

454.45

453.30

451.25

450.10

448.05

444.85

441.65

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

4068

3972

3876

3841

3780

3745

3684

3588

3492

GOLD

05-DEC-2017

30055

29895

29735

29782

29575

29622

29415

29255

29095

LEAD

30-NOV-2017

167.25

164.80

162.35

161.35

159.90

158.90

157.45

155.00

152.55

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

211.3

202.20

193.10

187.60

184.00

178.50

174.90

165.80

156.70

NICKEL

30-NOV-2017

805.25

794.75

784.25

779.10

773.75

768.60

763.25

752.75

742.25

SILVER

05-DEC-2017

40548

40140

39732

39487

39324

39079

38916

38508

38100

ZINC

30-NOV-2017

215.6

214.00

212.40

211.45

210.80

209.85

209.20

207.60

206.00

Monday 27 November 2017

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

ALUMINIUM

30-NOV-2017

145.55

142.35

139.15

138.00

135.95

134.80

132.75

129.55

126.35

COPPER

30- NOV-2017

489.9

475.80

461.70

456.90

447.60

442.80

433.50

419.40

405.30

CRUDE OIL

18-DEC-2017

4290

4111

3932

3869

3753

3690

3574

3395

3216

GOLD

05-DEC-2017

30807

30358

29909

29645

29460

29196

29011

28562

28113

LEAD

30-NOV-2017

172.7

168.20

163.70

162.00

159.20

157.50

154.70

150.20

145.70

NATURAL GAS

26-DEC-2017

254.65

232.55

210.45

196.30

188.35

174.20

166.25

144.15

122.05

NICKEL

30-NOV-2017

871.35

836.05

800.75

787.30

765.45

752.00

730.15

694.85

659.55

SILVER

05-DEC-2017

75485

64596

53707

46474

42818

35585

31929

21040

10151

ZINC

30-NOV-2017

228.3

222.00

215.70

213.10

209.40

206.80

203.10

196.80

190.50

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-DEC-17

66.985

66.35

65.70

65.35

65.05

64.70

64.40

63.75

63.12

EURINR

27-DEC-17

79.33

78.50

77.70

77.40

76.90

76.55

76.10

75.30

74.47

GBPINR

27-DEC-17

88.435

87.80

87.15

86.80

86.50

86.20

85.85

85.20

84.57

JPYINR

27-DEC-17

60.05

59.45

58.85

58.55

58.25

57.95

57.65

57.05

56.45

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

USDINR

27-DEC-17

65.5

65.30

65.10

65.05

64.90

64.85

64.70

64.50

64.30

EURINR

27-DEC-17

77.987

77.70

77.35

77.25

77.05

76.95

76.75

76.45

76.11

87.25

86.85

86.70

86.45

86.30

86.05

85.65

85.26

58.90

58.65

58.50

58.40

58.25

58.15

57.90

57.68

5
GBPINR

27-DEC-17

87.642
5

JPYINR

27-DEC-17

59.12

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ BULLION
Gold and Silver prices have found bases and look set to remain range bound for now. The lack of any
immediate geopolitical tension over North Korea has reduced the need for haven demand. With equities
still generally upbeat, the opportunity cost of holding bullion is high, but the fact precious metals prices
are not trending lower given the strength in equities is noteworthy. The weaker dollar should help
underpin firmer precious metals prices. The weaker tone from the FOMC minutes has pushed the dollar
lower as seen by the dollar index that has fallen to 93.22, down from 95.15 in late October and early
November. The jury is still out whether the September-to-November rebound is a counter trend move
within the 2017 downward trend, or is the start of a revival. Our view has been that the dollar has turned a
corner and will continue to trend higher, at least into the first quarter of 2018 – a move in the dollar index
below 92.50 would make us rethink this view. The Fed's cautious view of inflation could lead to a longer
period of low interest rates, providing a solid platform for gold investment, said Cameron Alexander,
analyst with Thomson Reuters-owned metals consultancy GFMS. Silver slipped 1.8 percent for the week
and is poised for its first weekly decline in three weeks.

✍ BASE METAL
Base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange are for the most part weaker this morning, Thursday
November 23, with prices down by an average of 0.4%. Lead (-1.2%) and nickel (-1.1%) lead on the
downside, while the rest are between unchanged and down by 0.2%. Three-month copper prices are off by
0.2% at $6,922 per tonne. Volume has been average with 6,300 lots traded as of 07:14 GMT. This follows
a mixed performance on Wednesday in which aluminium and copper prices rose by 0.6% and 0.3%
respectively, lead prices fell by 0.6% and the rest were little changed. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange,
the base metals complex is split into two camps: lead prices are giving the worst performance with a 2.4%
drop, tin prices are down by 1% and copper prices are off by 0.1% at 53,930 yuan ($8,150) per tonne,
while aluminium, nickel and zinc prices are up by 0.5%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Spot copper prices
in Changjiang are off by 20 yuan per tonne at 53,780-53,950 yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai
copper arbitrage ratio is unchanged at 7.79. Copper’s latest rebound pushed last week. The same is true for
zinc and nickel prices, while lead prices are recovered and aluminium and tin are consolidating.

✍ ENERGY
Oil prices are at their highest since the start of the year, after rising above the key $50-a-barrel mark in
September and holding those gains. Rather than pure speculation, this move is rooted in fundamentals:
falling inventories and increasing demand. The outlook for crude is no less bright as U.S. fiscal stimulus,
in the form of tax cuts financed by additional deficit spending, could also send oil prices higher.
In the U.S., total stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are down 5.6 percent from a year
ago, with distillate inventories lower by 14.4 percent at a time when economic growth has been solid and
diesel demand is likely to remain strong. Plus, heating oil demand will soon kick in as the winter
approaches. And if refinery runs increase to meet these product deficits — which seems likely — demand
for crude would strengthen, further boosting prices.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ COPPER
Last week, MCX Copper prices traded in bullish trend for the entire week, as buyers take advantage of
relatively cheap prices and extremely oversold conditions. The current rally suggests the worst of the
selling may be over at least temporarily and that the market may be getting ready to resume its uptrend.
Recently market broken its down trend channel and sustaining above it indicating further upside in coming
session supported by 50-day moving average level at Rs. 450. Resistance zone seen between the Rs. 459 460. Momentum still positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a
crossover buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory
which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. RSI (Relative Strength Index) fluctuating in the buying
zone on its daily chart indicating positive movement in upcoming sessions.
BUY COPPER DEC ABOVE 460 TGT 470 SL 450

✍ LEAD
The primary trend is bullish on daily basis as displayed. As we can see the previous chart market price on
its important support level and we are expecting market can move up from lower level supported by 100
days moving average. It can be facing near resistance level at Rs. 162 and support level at Rs. 159. Above
the resistance level we can see the next target near of Rs. 164, 165. Investors can follow the buy on dips
strategy for intra day to mid term basis. Apart from this below the support level could see a test of level
153.
BUY LEAD DEC ABOVE 162 TGT 164 SL 159

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS
DAILY

EXPIRY DATE

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

751

745

739

736

733

730

727

722

716

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

3116

3078

3040

3020

3002

2982

2964

2926

2888

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4278

4196

4114

4076

4032

3994

3950

3868

3786

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

23162

26152

23562

22543

20972

19953

18382

15792

13202

GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

5641

4968

4296

4051

3623

3379

2951

2278

1606

TMC

20-DEC-2017

8095

7885

7675

7569

7465

7359

7255

7045

6835

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS
WEEKLY

EXPIRY

R4

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

S4

DATE
SYOREFIDR

20-DEC-2017

898

840

782

758

724

700

666

608

550

SYBEANIDR

20-DEC-2017

3734

3467

3200

3100

2933

2833

2666

2399

2132

RMSEED

20-DEC-2017

4419

4284

4149

4094

4014

3959

3879

3744

3609

JEERAUNJHA

20-DEC-2017

28742

26152

23562

22543

20972

19953

18382

15792

13202

GUARSEED10

20-DEC-2017

4584

4309

4035

3921

3760

3646

3486

3211

2937

TMC

20-DEC-2017

8804

8329

7854

7658

7379

7183

6904

6429

5954


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