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Contents
1

2

The Intelligence Explosion: Growth Rates of Cognitive Reinvestment

1

1.1

On (Extensionally) Defining Terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7

1.2
1.3

Issues to Factor Out . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
AI Preferences: A Brief Summary of Core Theses . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Microfoundations of Growth
2.1

3

14

The Outside View versus the Lucas Critique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Some Defenses of a Model of Hard Takeoff

28

3.1

Returns on Brain Size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

3.2
3.3

One-Time Gains . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Returns on Speed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

3.4

Returns on Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

3.5

The Net Efficiency of Human Civilization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

3.6
3.7

Returns on Cumulative Evolutionary Selection Pressure . . . . . . . . . 56
Relating Curves of Evolutionary Difficulty and Engineering Difficulty . 61

3.8

Anthropic Bias in Our Observation of Evolved Hominids . . . . . . . . 64

3.9

Local versus Distributed Intelligence Explosions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

3.10 Minimal Conditions to Spark an Intelligence Explosion . . . . . . . . . 72
3.11 Returns on Unknown Unknowns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
4

Three Steps Toward Formality

5

Expected Information Value: What We Want to Know versus What We Can

6

Probably Figure Out

82

Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics: An Open Problem

86

References

4

77

89

Communal Assembly Paper

www.daifture.org