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Commodity Research Report 29 January 2018 Ways2Capital .pdf



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HIGH BROW MARKET RESEARCH INVESTMENT ADVISOR PVT. LTD.
Tuesday, January 30, 2018

MCX Market Wrap-up

Aluminum

31-Jan-18

Previous
Close
141.75

Copper

28-Feb-18

450.45

452.3

457.9

439.4

451.85

0.31%

-11.40%

-15.26%

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4042

4063

4229

4033

4190

3.66%

-0.97%

163.50%

Gold

5-Feb-18

29755

29699

30464

29699

30361

2.04%

10.61%

29.08%

Lead

31-Jan-18

165.4

165.4

168.75

164

164.25

-0.70%

16.12%

8.26%

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

189.5

192

201.8

187

200.1

5.59%

-13.68%

530.47%

Nickel

31-Jan-18

807.8

811.4

880.8

801.8

868.2

7.48%

20.49%

45.25%

Silver

5-Mar-18

38969

38883

40180

38402

39960

2.54%

-11.15%

88.10%

Zinc

31-Jan-18

219

223

228.5

223

227.85

4.04%

3.62%

-21.88%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

Close

141.9

144.05

140.55

141.6

Change in Change in OI Change in
Price (in %)
(in %)
Volume (in %)
-0.11%
-14.39%
-37.40%

NCDEX Market Wrap-up

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

Previous
Close
4051

Chana

20-Mar-18

3677

3664

3810

3654

3721

1.20%

415.98%

-19.65%

Dhaniya
Cottonseed Oil
Cake

20-Apr-18

5704

5738

6021

5713

5935

4.05%

-8.48%

-43.46%

20-Feb-18

1748.5

1740

1750

1664.5

1672

-4.38%

523.35%

67.94%

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

9219

9295

10085

9272

10035

8.85%

372.53%

60.33%

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

4276.5

4305

4650

4296.5

4635.5

8.39%

11.39%

62.96%

Jeera

20-Mar-18

16560

16600

16655

16335

16440

-0.72%

0.50%

-25.59%

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1003.5

1018.5

1018.5

965

974

-2.94%

24.66%

-8.91%

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4036

4044

4145

4038

4123

2.16%

-3.77%

86.45%

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

734.25

735.8

749.8

735

746.3

1.64%

5.79%

78.02%

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

3365

3380

3678

3380

3673

9.15%

-2.33%

67.19%

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7330

7322

7452

7230

7354

0.33%

-64.72%

148.33%

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1543.3

1532

1544

1473

1505.2

-2.47%

11.09%

-38.14%

Commodity

Contract

Open

High

Low

Close

4050

4176

4022

4121

Change in
Price (in %)
1.73%

Change in Change in
OI (in %) Volume (in %)
417.59%
-29.85%

Currency Market Wrap-up
Contract

Previous Close

Open

High

Low

Close

Change in Price
(in %)

USDINR

26-Feb-18

63.8925

64.1050

64.2475

63.6500

63.7525

-0.22%

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

88.8175

89.0500

91.2800

88.9450

91.0025

2.46%

EURINR

26-Feb-18

78.385

78.5750

79.4400

78.4300

79.2525

1.11%

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

57.7175

58.0000

58.6225

57.6500

58.5200

1.39%

Currency Pair

Continued……

2
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

International Market Wrap-up
Exchange

Previous
Close

Open

High

Low

Close

Change in Price
(in %)

LME

2220.75

2218.5

2267.75

2707

2256.5

1.61%

Copper

COMEX

3.18

3.188

3.216

3.103

3.183

0.09%

Crude Oil

NYMEX

63.57

63.61

66.66

63.17

66.14

4.04%

Gold

COMEX

1331.1

1334

1365.4

1328

1352.1

1.58%

Lead

LME

2586.75

2586.5

2654

2577.25

2605.5

0.72%

NYMEX

3.184

3.252

3.628

3.143

3.505

10.08%

Nickel

LME

12687.5

13685

13910

12582.5

13632.5

7.45%

Silver

COMEX

17.025

17.06

17.705

16.74

17.385

2.11%

Zinc

LME

3407

3407.5

3484

3381.5

3481.75

2.19%

Commodity
Aluminum

Natural Gas

3
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

LME Inventory Update
Commodity

Closing (As on 26th Jan 18) in
Tonnes

Closing (As on 19th Jan 17) in
Tonnes

% Change

Copper

299600

205475

45.81%

Nickel

362058

362532

-0.13%

Lead

138050

139650

-1.15%

Zinc

179450

180025

-0.32%

Aluminium

1086575

1090875

-0.39%

Continued…….

4
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

5
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

Upcoming Economic Events Calender
Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Monday, January 29, 2018
19:00

USD

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Dec)

1.50%

1.50%

19:00

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Dec)

0.20%

0.10%

19:00

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) (Dec)

0.50%

0.60%

6.30%

6.40%

123

122.1

51.5

51.6

55

55

Tuesday, January 30, 2018
19:30

USD

S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Nov)

20:30

USD

CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Tuesday, January 30, 2018
6:30

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

6:30

CNY

Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

7:30

USD

U.S. President Trump Speaks

18:45

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)

191K

250K

19:00

USD

Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)

0.50%

0.70%

20:30

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)

0.50%

0.20%

21:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-1.600M

-1.071M

1.50%

1.50%

Thursday, February 1, 2018
0:30

USD

FOMC Statement

0:30

USD

Fed Interest Rate Decision

7:15

CNY

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

51.3

51.5

15:00

GBP

Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

56.5

56.3

19:00

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

236K

233K

19:00

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4)

1.20%

3.00%

20:15

USD

Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

20:30

USD

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)

55.5
57

58.1

52

52.2

Friday, February 2, 2018
15:00

GBP

Construction PMI (Jan)

19:00

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)

0.30%

0.30%

19:00

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

184K

148K

19:00

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

178K

146K

19:00

USD

Unemployment Rate (Jan)

4.10%

4.10%

20:30

USD

Factory Orders (MoM) (Dec)

1.40%

1.30%

Currency Weekly Pivots
Currency Pair

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

USDINR

26-Feb-18

65.1000

64.5000

64.1500

63.9000

63.5500

63.3000

62.7000

GBPINR

26-Feb-18

95.0500

92.7500

91.8500

90.4000

89.5000

88.0500

85.7500

EURINR

26-Feb-18

81.0500

80.0500

79.6500

79.0500

78.6500

78.0500

77.0500

JPYINR

26-Feb-18

60.2000

59.2000

58.8500

58.2500

57.9000

57.3000

56.3000

6
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

MCX Weekly Pivots
Commodity

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Aluminium

31-Jan-18

149.05

145.55

143.55

142.05

140.05

138.55

135.05

Copper

28-Feb-18

486.7

468.2

460

449.7

441.5

431.20

412.70

Crude Oil

16-Feb-18

4543

4347

4268

4151

4072

3955

3759

Gold

5-Feb-18

31705

30940

30650

30175

29885

29410

28645

Lead

31-Jan-18

175.15

170.4

167.3

165.65

162.55

160.90

156.15

Natural Gas

23-Feb-18

225.9

211.1

205.6

196.3

190.8

181.50

166.70

Nickel

31-Jan-18

1008

929

899

850

820

771

692

Silver

5-Mar-18

43070

41292

40626

39514

38848

37736

35958

Zinc

31-Jan-18

237.45

231.95

229.9

226.45

224.4

220.95

215.45

NCDEX Weekly Pivots
Commodity

Contract

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Castor Seed

20-Feb-18

4414

4260

4191

4106

4037

3952

3798

Chana

20-Mar-18

4040

3884

3803

3728

3647

3572

3416

Dhaniya

20-Apr-18

6506

6198

6066

5890

5758

5582

5274

Cotton Seed
Oilcake

20-Feb-18

1867

1781

1727

1696

1641

1610

1525

Guargum5

20-Feb-18

11423

10610

10323

9797

9510

8984

8171

Guarseed10

20-Feb-18

5234

4881

4758

4527

4405

4174

3820

Jeera

20-Mar-18

17117

16797

16618

16477

16298

16157

15837

Kapas

30-Apr-18

1093

1039

1007

986

953

932

879

RMseed

20-Apr-18

4316

4209

4166

4102

4059

3995

3888

Ref Soya Oil

20-Feb-18

773

759

752

744

738

729

714

Soyabean

20-Feb-18

4173

3875

3774

3577

3476

3279

2981

Turmeric

20-Apr-18

7789

7567

7461

7345

7239

7123

6901

Mentha Oil

31-Jan-18

1649

1578

1542

1507

1471

1436

1365

7
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

BULLION
Gold futures fell nearly one percent in American trade away from August 5, 2014
highs for the second session even as the dollar index plumbed December 17, 2014
lows following earlier data from the US the world's largest economy. The dollar index
plumbed 38-month lows after the US government closed for three days before
Congress reached a stopgap agreement to fund the government until February 8,
with President Donald Trump singing it into law and also imposing heavy 20% to 50%
trade tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. This was considered one step in a
larger process of imposing curbs on trade between the US and the world, which was
protested by money multinational companies.

BASE METALS
Three-month copper prices ($7,096 per tonne) are up the most with a 0.7% gain while
nickel zinc and lead prices are up by around 0.3% and aluminium and tin prices are
little changed.On the Shanghai Futures Exchange today base metals prices are for the
most part stronger with nickel prices leading the way with a gain of 1.8%, followed by
tin prices that are up by 1.5%, zinc prices that are up by 0.7% and copper prices that
are up by 0.2% at 53,840 Yuan ($8,410) per tonne. Aluminium and lead prices are
down by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. Spot copper prices in Changeling are up by 0.7%
at 53,370-53,470 Yuan per tonne and the LME/Shanghai copper arbitrage ratio has
firmed to 7.59, up from 7.53 on Friday.

ENERGY
Brent futures rose one percent above $66 a barrel while Brent settled above $70 near
December 2014 highs as the dollar index plumbed 38-month lows following earlier
data from the US the world's largest energy consumer. Earlier, Russian energy
minister Alexander Novak said that a surge in crude prices to near $70 won't stop
Russia from complying with the global deal to cut output by 1.8 million bpd until the
end of 2018 while noting that Russia looks to the demand-supply balance in the first
place before studying prices.
Natural gas futures fell nearly two percent in American trade as the dollar bounced
off December 17, 2014 lows following earlier data from the US the world's largest
energy consumer including the EIA report that showed another inventory draw down
for the sixth straight week.

8
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved

SPICES
Trend remained weak for Jeer as low demand in mandis amidst prospects of
better production and arrivals of the new crop in coming weekskept pressure on
prices, even as quality concern reports too have been there.Even as sowing is
expected to be higher with shifting of other crop towards Jeer due to the high
prevailing rates, a delayed sowing in Gujarat (due to warmer climate) may have
some adverse impact on the crop productivity and its arrivals. Exports from
China have reportedly been on the rise.
Moderate bearish trend persisted for Turmeric as lack of strong demand in
mandis amidst new crop arrivals kept pressure on prices. Arrivals of new crop in
some areas in TN amidst prospects of rising arrivals from other regions in
coming weeks prevented recovery. Traders waited for new crop arrivals before
initiating fresh demand.

OIL & OILSEEDS
Soy bean kept trading firm on strong demand in mandis amidst firmness in
International markets. Outlook for this month shall remain bullish. India's
harvest season subdued export demand for soymeal and estimations of
sufficient amount of inventory lying with stockists had been capping the
upside just few months, back, but as parity in exporting Indian soymeal has reestablished and harvest season nears completion, any sharp fall is ruled out.
An overall weak sentiment prevailed for Mentha as low trading activities
ahead of the Festive holiday weekend kept pressure on the prices. Short term
trend looks slight weak with prices likely to find immediate support at 1500
levels.

GUAR COMPLEX
Guargum inched towards the 10,000 psychological mark as traders expect the
exports to start rising at these levels with the recent firmness in Crude oil
prices.Lowering inventories will be another bullish factor. The new crop arrivals
shall drop further thereby offering further support. Increased exports of guar
gum during last year have been encouraging due to increasing rig count in the
US.

OTHERS
RMSeed prices found strong immediate support near the 4000 mark as prices
recovered moderately from these rates. Going forward a comfortable supply
situation shall limit the upside movement. But lower support levels ad strength
in soybean shall prompt buyers to enter at every fall now since 3960-80 is a
strong support for the April contract.

9
Copyright © 2018 Ways2Capital. All rights reserved


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