EV Malaysia GE14 Economic Impact 20180514 (Kenanga).pdf


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Economic Viewpoint
14 May 2018

Malaysia 14th General Election
Surprise victory for Pakatan, short term uncertainty but
outlook remains positive

Economics
Kenanga Investment Bank Berhad
T: 603-2172 0880

OVERVIEW


A new beginning. When victory was certain for the
Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance as the official results
th
were announced a day after the 14 General Election
(GE14) on May 9th, it marked the starting point for the
new coalition government to clean up the mess that have
been allegedly accumulated by the previous regime
under Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak for nearly a decade.
The former coalition government, Barisan Nasional (BN),
had been in power ever since Malaysia achieved its
independence from the British colonial in 1957.Hence, a
change in the ruling party, after 61 years marks a history
in Malaysia.



The biggest comeback. The GE14 victory is remarkable
as it was led by Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir
Mohamad who ousted BN, the ruling coalition he once
steered under the United Malays National Organisation
(UMNO) banner. During his premiership from 1982 till
Source: Election Commission, Kenanga Research
2003, he served as Malaysia’s 4th and longest serving
PM. Aside from being the first Malaysian PM to not represent the long-serving coalition, Tun Mahathir’s current
premiership makes him the first Malaysian PM to serve from two opposing parties and on non-consecutive terms. After
retiring from politics for 15 years, he made a comeback on 8 January 2018 when he was announced as the PH
coalition candidate for PM for the GE14. At the age of 92, he is also the world's oldest head of state. However, Tun
Mahathir has expressed that that he would only be a caretaker leader of the new government and will eventually hand
over the premiership to his former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim upon the King’s pardon.



Against the odds. PH coalition won by a commendable margin with 122 or 54.5% of the total 222 parliamentary seats
despite many alleged attempts of gerrymandering and dirty tactics in the GE14 by the then-incumbent BN government.
In terms of total votes, it garnered 66.8% of total turnout, a significant improvement from 50.8% in the last election.
More surprisingly the alliance won 9 out of the 14 states in Malaysia including Johor, the birth state and stronghold of
UMNO. PH also made almost a clean sweep on the west coast of peninsular namely gaining Negeri Sembilan and
Melaka while retaining Federal Territory and Selangor. The alliance technically won more seats in the state of Kedah,
Perak and Sabah but not enough to form a state government. Surprisingly, the Islamic party or PAS, though not part of
the PH, secured 18 parliamentary seats in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Graph 1: Malaysia’s Elections Results At A Glance

Table 1: Malaysia’s Election Results Historical Trend (1959 – Present)
Year

Govt (BN)

Opposition

Total

Seats

% seat

% vote

Seats

% seat

% vote

Seats

1959*
1964**
1969
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1995
1999
2004
2008
2013

74
89
95
135
130
132
148
127
162
148
198
140
133

71.15
85.6
66.0
87.7
84.4
85.7
83.6
70.6
84.4
76.7
90.4
62.6
59.9

51.7
58.5
49.3
60.7
57.2
60.5
55.8
53.4
65.2
56.5
63.9
50.3
47.4

30
15
49
19
24
22
29
53
30
45
21
82
89

28.9
14.4
34.0
12.3
15.6
14.3
16.4
29.5
15.6
23.3
9.6
36.9
40.1

48.3
41.5
50.7
39.3
42.8
39.5
41.5
46.6
34.8
43.5
36.1
46.8
50.8

104
104
144
154
154
154
177
180
192
193
219
222
222

2018

79

35.6

33.2

143

64.4

66.8

222

Source: Various.
* Government means the Alliance for 1959 and 1964, the Alliance and coalition partner the Sarawak United People’s Party for 1969, and the Barisan Nasional from 1974
** 1959 figures are for Malaya. Similarly, 1964 figures are only for Peninsular Malaysia as parliamentary elections were not held in Sabah and Sarawak
.
Source: Election Commission, Kenanga Research

PP7004/02/2013(031762)

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