Epic Research Daily Agri Report 29th FEB 2016 .pdf
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Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
29 February 2016
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Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
Most Active Contract
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
CHANGE CHANGE %
Commodities In News
Chana settled up on short covering after prices dropped on reports of
good arrivals from new season crop. Imported chana has also hit the
markets this month and traders & stockists are buying up to their
respective stock limits for the new season crop. Since, Government is
creating buffer stock for pulses including chana they have to compete
with traders to procure it from farmers. In the second advance estimate
for 2015-16, government forecasted 8.09 mt of chana this year, which
is more than production estimated last year (7.17 mt).This year chana is
sown in 85.48 lakh hectares (lh), compared with 85.74 lh last year, as
per data latest release by Agriculture Ministry on Jan 28. India has
imported 3.75 lt of Chana until November in the current financial year.
According to the Second Advance Estimate by Government, Gram
production estimate has been revised down to 8.09 MMT from targeted
estimate of 9.50 MMT. Gram production estimate has been lowered
due to lower area coverage against higher coverage expectation.The
government has issued a tender for importing 5,000 tons of pulses to
boost local supply and control the rise in prices.
Jeera settled down by on subdued demand from traders and stockists
in physical market. Further, expectation of good production in states of
Gujarat and Rajasthan too fuelled the uptrend. Though, some fresh
export enquiries, capped some losses. As per the final rabi sowing
report, Gujarat has planted more cumin compared to last year sowing
progress. Jeera is planted in about 10.8% more area at 2,95,400
hectares compared to 2,66,700 hectares last year same time.As per
second advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16, production is
pegged at 2.11 lt higher by about 7% forecasted in revised fourth
advance estimate of 1.97 lt. In 2013-14 production was 3.46 lt.
According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 8
month of 2015-16 (Apr-Nov) is 56,787 tonnes, which is, lower as
compared to last year. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 201415. According to Govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend
compared to last year until September.
Stating that Indian agriculture has become a "victim" of its own success,
the Economic Survey has favoured the use of hybrid and GM seeds along
with better MSP, irrigation and national market facilities to boost crop
yields and for bringing in major transformation in the sector.The survey
said safety concerns related to hybrid and genetically modified (GM) seeds
need to be debated and tested so that their introduction is facilitated in the
next six months. It also said the regulatory process needs to be evolved to
address safety concerns of GM crops.The Economic Survey for 2015-16,
which was tabled in Parliament suggested the policies must incentivise
raising of production of pulses and oilseeds, for which the country is
heavily dependent on imports."Indian agriculture, in a way, a victim of its
own past success especially the green revolution. It has become cerealcentric and as a result, regionally biased and input intensive. Rapid
industrialisation and climate change are raising the scarcity value of land
and water, respectively," the survey observed.It said agriculture requires a
"new paradigm" shift by focusing on raising yields with less inputs,
prioritising cultivation of less water intensive crops, especially pulses and
oilseeds, supported by favourable MSP regime and backed by better
procurement system and research.Pointing out deep segmentation in agrimarket, the survey said unified national market would boost farmers
income.On controversial GM crops, it said: "Concerns about affordability
of hybrids and GM seeds, environmental and ethical issues in cultivation of
GM crops, risk to the food chain, diseases spread and cross pollination
have resulted in their non-introduction. These issues needs to be debated,
tested, evaluated, so that introduction of hybrids is facilitated in the next six
months." The adoption of hybrid and high yielding variety seeds is one
definite pathway to raising productivity in Indian agriculture, it
added.Stating that a host of studies have demonstrated significant net
benefit of GM crops, the survey said, "Nonetheless there are good reasons
for some of the public apprehensions on GMOs.Therefore, the regulatory
process in India needs to evolve so as to address the concerns in a way that
does not come in the way adapting high yielding technologies and rapidly
moving towards the world's agro-technological frontier."
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
National Market Update
Market fundamentals and recent developments hint that the year will remain
favorable for castor oil consumers as upside potential is very limited in the
short to medium term. Speculators have burnt their fingers and would prefer to
remain sidelined in futures if futures contracts are re-launched. Under current
condition castor business may revert to fundamental good demand -supply
Agricultural Statistics Division, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, India
has revised its Second Adv estimate for foodgrains and estimated 17.27 lakh
tonne castor seed production for 2015-16 crop year,to be marketed in MY
2016-17.The production target for the year had been fixed at 20.34lakh tonne.
India had produced 18.70 lakh tonne castor seed last year as per final estimate
by DES..Against this private estimates hinges in the range of 14 to 15 lakh
tonne for this year.
India exported 14035.49 T castor oil during week ended 21st Feb-2016 at an
average price of $1162.67 per tonne.It is higher by 35% from previous week.
However price realization increased only by 0.96 % from last week. The
minimum and maximum prices were registered at $3374 and 679.80 per tonne.
Castor oil export would continue to grow as prices are lower and availability is
Total area under Castor crop in Gujarat for the year 2015-16 is 781,000
hectares as per the Government’s estimates. It has increased by 6 % as
compared to the previous year, which was 734,000 hectares according to
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 6390 TARGET 6435 6585 SL
SELL GUARGUM MAR BELOW 5550 TARGET 5500 5430 SL
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 8740 TARGET 8784 8844 SL
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