Epic Research Daily Agri Report 4th April 2016 .pdf
Original filename: Epic Research Daily Agri Report 4th April 2016.pdf
Title: DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 11 December 2014
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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
04 April 2016
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Coriander short term
trend is bullish and May
continue in coming
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
Most Active Contract
CHANGE CHANGE %
REF SOYA OIL
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
Commodities In News
Soyabean on NCDEX settled up on expectation of higher demand for
crushing. Further, lower arrivals in the spot market and improvement in
global oilseed prices too helped soyabean prices uptrend. Prices also
seen supported after supply concerns after Agriculture Ministry of
Argentina, the world's third biggest bean producer, trimmed bean
output forecast for the current year. Mexico bought 154,300 tons and
unknown buyers made a purchase of 84,900 tons, the United States
Department of Agriculture said.China bought 19,300 tons for delivery
in the 2015-2016 marketing year. India's soybean oilmeal exports
plunged 98.25% to 1,127 tons in February compared to 64,514 tons for
the corresponding period a year earlier on higher prices of the bean in
export market, data from SEA of India showed. India freight on board
(FOB) soymeal price was at $489 per ton in March compared to $448
per ton for the same period year ago. US soymeal prices traded at
$347.96 per ton as of March 28. According to Argentinean Agri.
Ministry Soybean crop there is estimated to be around 60.9 million tons
compared to 61.4 million tons last year.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled down due to fall in demand at the spot
market. Further, improved arrivals across southern India market from
the producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. However, arrivals
have improved last week at 8,725 tonnes compared to 5,151 tonnes in
the previous weeks across the country as per data. New season crop has
hit the markets but majority of arrivals are of medium quality.As per
dept of commerce data, turmeric exports until Dec 2015 pegged at
64,100 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes
compared to 78,360 tonnes in FY14. As on latest sowing data, turmeric
sowing in AP, Telangana is lower than the normal sowing. Arrivals in
Tamil Nadu, a major producer of the spice which is increasingly sought
after for its nutraceutical properties, have been normal. Andhra Pradesh
and Tamil Nadu together account for around 70% of the total output in
the country.Initial reports say the production could be lower by 15%20% this year because of scanty rains in some producing areas.
The country will witness "warmer than normal temperature" this summer
with heat wave like conditions likely over Central and northwest parts of
India.According to the summer forecast issued by the India Meteorological
Department, the first of its kind, for April to June, the seasonal temperature
would be above normal by more than one degree Celsius over Northwest
India.There is also a high probability of 76 per cent of maximum
temperatures in the core Heat Wave (HW) zone during the 2016 hot
weather season to be above normal.Core HW zone covers states of Punjab,
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh,
Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal,
Odisha and Telangana and met sub-divisions of Marathwada, Vidharbha,
Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh."This in turn suggests
high probability of moderate and severe heat wave conditions in core HW
zone during the hot weather season," the IMD said."The strong El Nino
conditions over the Pacific Ocean that started in 2015 are still continuing.
However, the latest forecasts indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to
weaken further and reach weaker El Nino conditions during the 2016 hot
weather season."It has been observed that during the hot weather seasons
followed by El Nino years (for example: 1973, 1995, 1998, 2003, 2010,
etc. followed by the El Nino years of 1972, 1994, 1997, 2002 and 2009),
above normal temperatures including moderate to severe heat wave
conditions were experienced in most parts of India," the IMD said.The
weathermen have also attributed the increasing trend of greenhouse gases
due to "anthropogenic activity".Israel, known world over for its water
management techniques, plans to more than double its Centres of
Excellences in India to boost the bilateral cooperation in the field of
agriculture."India and Israel share a very strong bonding and our
cooperation cuts across many areas. Agriculture is an important component
in our relationship and we have established 13 Centres of Excellences in
India so far which will go up to 28 in the coming years", said Uri Ariel,
Israel's Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Fundamental Watch : Sugar
National Market Update
SUGAR PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET
Indian sugar export rose by 16% as the country exported 86 thousand tons of
sugar this week (ending 20th March, 2016) compared to 73.9 thousand tons of
exports made in the previous week.
The Maharashtra govt. exempted purchase tax on sugarcane for millers in
the state who would export 12% of their current season (sugar) output.
As per the ISMA estimate, India is expected to export 1.9 – 2 million tons of
sugar in 2015 -16 (01st Oct, 2015 – 30th Sep, 2016).
With an early commencement of crushing operation for 2016-17 (01st Apr,
2016 – 31st Mar, 2017); Brazil’s main centre south region had crushed 1.39
lakh tons of sugar in the first half of March, 2016.
F.O Licht reduced its global sugar supply forecast to 171.1 MT in 2015-16
amidst lower sugar production estimate in top producing Asian countries
(India & Thailand).
Platts Kingsman raised its global sugar supply deficit to 7.62 MT in 2015-16
amidst lower production figure received from India, Thailand and Northeast
Green Pool predicted a global sugar supply deficit of 6.65 MT in 2015 -16
and a deficit of 4.95 MT in 2016-17.
BUY CORIANDER APR ABOVE 7150 TARGET 7195 7345 SL
SELL GUARGUM APRIL BELOW 5380 TARGET 5330 5260 SL
SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8064 TARGET 8020 7960 SL
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