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Equity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital .pdf


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TECHNICAL TREND ( NIFTY - BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY FIFTY : -

The Market opened gap up after an extended Weekend and Sustained

above 8900 throughout the day’s trading Session. The 50 Shares Index Nifty 50 Opened
at 8852 up by 43 points or 0.48 per cent. After giving a breakout from 8670 levels. Nifty
has managed to gain nearly 400 points. This rally has been triggered due to speculation of
the US Fed not raising the interest rate in near future. Since the Nifty has touch above
9000 crucial Psychological level. Market may find resistance at this level. However the
bull Market is intact and Secular in nature. It is important to note that the NSE small cap
Index registered all time high of 6303. The Nifty could consolidate within the range of
8874-8971 due to lack of triggered from domestic or global market. From this point the
Logical levels for Nifty will be 9025-9050 up side, and the 8860-8820 would be the
important level down side.
BANK NIFTY : -

The Bank Nifty opened in a positive note up by 107 points or 0.53 per

cent at 19990. The Bank Nifty got significant boost from the Public Sector Banks Stocks
as FM talked about some political consensus for privatization of the same, Although it is
too early to think about that, as the main priority will be recapitalization and actual
resolution of stressed assets of the Public Sector Banks as of now. Although the
underlying fundamental factors are optimistic for Bank Nifty the chances of technical
correction or at least a retrenchment is increasing in probability. Recent decline in bond
yields also aided the rally in Bank stocks by causing adjustments on their balance sheet,
especially on Public sector banks. On Daily chart the price action becomes clearer and we
see market is trading in price channel structure. Also some traders are pointing out
upcoming monetary policy stance as the main mover behind the rally. The Crucial Levels
for Bank Nifty is 20827-20556 up side and 20029-19773 is down side.

Monday, 12 September 2016

TECHNICAL VIEW (NIFTY- BANK NIFTY FUTURES )
NIFTY
DAILY

R2
9097

WEEKLY

R2
9215

MONTHLY

R2
9486

R1

PP

S1

S2

8969

8905

8841

8713

R1

PP

S1

S2

9007

8903

8799

8591

R1

PP

S1

S2

9074

8868

8662

R1

PP

S1

S2

20033

19615

S1

S2

19764

18710

S1

S2

19357

17689

50 DAYS

100 DAYS

200 DAYS

-

-

8250

BANK NIFTY
DAILY

R2
20869

WEEKLY

20451

R2

R1

21872
MONTHLY

20242
PP

20818

R2
22693

20291

R1

PP

21025

20191

MOVING AVERAGE

21 DAYS

NIFTY

8760

-

BANK NIFTY

19605

-

-

PARABOLIC SAR

DAILY

WEEKLY

MONTHLY

NIFTY

8615

8429

8375

BANK NIFTY

18960

18337

18158

-

PATTERN FORMATION ( NIFTY )

Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Nifty has Applied the Bollinger
Band Along with Parabolic SAR, both the indicators give early indication of Bullish or
Bearish trend of the market. Along with that the Nifty dalily Chart is Froming the strong
Bearish Pattern Which is the reversal trend Signal. As we have seen in last week the Nifty
is traded in the narrow range of 8870-8900 Levels. Now it seems that trend could be
reversal into the bearish Side in the Daily Chart has Formed the Beaish candle which is
also the signal of bear market. If the Nifty is breaking the levels of 8860-8750 level we
could witness the level of 8660-8580 in near Term. Move Toward the 8900 levels in
upcoming will lead the Nifty to break the level of 9020-9200. The Crucial levels for Nifty
is 8880-8750 down side and 8900-8940 is Upside.

PATTERN FORMATION ( BANK NIFTY )
Detail of Chart - On the Above given daily Chart of Bank Nifty has Applied the

Bollinger Band along with the Parabolic , The Usage of bollinger Band differ from
Trader-to-Trader indication of Bullish or Bearish trend of the market respectively. Thus
the Bank Nifty Chart also formed the hanging man kind of pattern. Kind of Pattern which
is a Bearish signal for market, from this Point we are Expecting if Bank Nifty Consolidate
Upcoming week. Then it would touch the level of 19950-20250 in Near-Term. If we look
into the Fundmaentals of Bank Nifty there are some action is taken to overcome the NPA
issue of Public Sector Bank. The Important levels for Bank Nifty is 20180 - 19750 down
side and 2380-20460 is up side.

NSE EQUITY DAILY LEVELS
COMPANY
NAME

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

ACC

EQ

1708

1680

1666

1638

1624

ALBK
AMBUJACEM
ASIAN PAINT
AXISBANK
BAJAJ-AUTO
BANKBARODA
BANKINDIA
BHEL
BHARTIARTL
CIPLA
COALINDIA
DLF
DRREDDY
GAIL
GRASIM
HCLTECH
HDFC
HDFCBANK
HEROMOTOCO
HINDALCO
HINDUNILVR
ICICIBANK
ITC
INDUSIND BANK
INFY
JINDALSTEL
KOTAKBANK
LT
M&M
MRF
MARUTI
ONGC
ORIENTBANK
RCOM
RELCAPITAL
RELIANCE
RELINFRA
RPOWER
SBIN
SSLT( VEDL)
SUNPHARMA
TATAMOTORS
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
UNIONBANK

EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ
EQ

89
278
1186
628
3143
177
127
157
330
601
335
163
3250
405
4810
797
1462
1303
3766
166
964
279
267
1237
1049
91
834
1552
1514
40915
5534
263
133
53
582
1059
642
55
270
180
826
586
79
411
154

87
275
1180
621
3089
174
125
156
326
589
333
160
3220
400
4756
789
1436
1297
3691
160
947
277
262
1229
1042
88
827
1532
1495
40557
5466
259
132
52
571
1050
629
54
266
175
810
580
78
403
151

86
273
1174
616
3053
173
123
154
322
584
332
156
3195
394
4723
781
1416
1287
3628
157
937
273
260
1214
1034
84
817
1521
1477
40192
5422
253
130
51
564
1040
622
54
265
173
802
575
77
398
150

84
270
1168
609
2999
170
121
153
318
572
330
153
3165
389
4669
773
1390
1281
3553
151
920
271
255
1206
1027
81
810
1501
1458
39834
5354
249
129
50
553
1031
609
53
261
168
789
569
76
390
147

83
268
1162
604
2963
169
119
151
314
567
329
149
3140
383
4636
765
1370
1271
3490
148
910
267
253
1191
1019
77
800
1490
1440
39469
5310
243
127
50
546
1021
602
53
260
166
778
564
75
385
146

TOP 15 ACHIEVERS
SR.NO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

SCRIPT NAME

PREV
CLOSE

CMP

BHEL

136

154

ONGC

238

254

TATA STEEL

374

394

ICICI BANK

261

274

MARUTI SUZUKI

5160

5403

TATA MOTORS

549

573

SBIN

254

264

LUPIN LTD.

1518

1569

BANK BARODA

166

171

RELIANCE

1013

1044

AURO PHARMA

779

802

AXIS BANK LTD.

599

613

DR. REDDY LAB

3123

3193

BHARTI INFRA

343

351

INDUSIND BANK

1192

1217

//
% CHANGE

+13.19 %
+6.79 %
+5.45 %
+4.90 %
+4.70 %
+4.26 %
+3.73 %
+3.39 %
+3.37 %
+3.08 %
+2.92 %
+2.22 %
+2.25 %
+2.21 %
+2.14 %

SR.NO

TOP 15 LOOSERS
SCRIPT NAME

PREV CLOSE

CMP

% CHANGE

1

YES BANK LTD.

1388

1276

-8.07 %

2

TCS

2514

2352

-6.46 %

3

ULTRACEM

4085

3953

-3.22 %

4

TECHM

471

458

-2.87 %

5

TATA POWER

79

77

-2.28 %

6

HDFC

1439

1410

-1.98 %

7

ITC LIMITED

262

258

--1.75 %

8

HINDALCO

157

154

-1.53 %

9

AMBUJA

276

272

-1.34 %

10

IDEA

84

83

-1.01 %

11

ACC

1669

1653

-0.97 %

12

NTPC

160

158

-0.75 %

13

WIPRO

483

480

-0.63 %

14

HCL TECH

784

780

-0.51 %

15

GAIL LIMITED

394

394

-0.20 %

NEXT WEEK STARS( AS PER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS )
NSE FUTURE
NSE FUTURE : BUY PNB FUTURE ABOVE 145 TGT 150 SL 142.50
NSE FUTURE : SELL SAIL FUTURE BELOW 50 TGT 47 SL 51.50
NSE FUTURE : BUY CEATLTD FUTURE ABOVE 1060 TGT 1090 SL 1045
NSE CASH
NSE CASH : BUY MOTHERSUMI NSE CASH ABOVE 342 TGT 368 SL 331.
NSE CASH : BUY TECHM NSE CASH ABOVE 465 TGT 495 SL 445.

NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK
SIT on Black Money asks RBI to develop institutional mechanism to track illicit
financial flows - Chairman, Special Investigation Team on Black Money, appointed by
the Hon’ble Supreme Court, in a letter dated 11-Aug, to Governor, RBI has impressed
upon the imperative need to establish the following institutional mechanism for sharing of
data with the RBI in its various data bases with the Enforcement Authorities so that the
data could be cross checked with other information available with Enforcement
Authorities and illicit financial flows could be curbed. (a) Foreign Exchange Transactions
Electronic Reporting System: FET–ERS was introduced through RBI Circular No.77
dated 13.March-04. All authorized dealers are obligated to report each foreign exchange
transactions. Access to this database would needs to be given to authorities like
Enforcement Directorate and Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, so that the above
analysis could be done. For this, SIT has suggested that FET–ERS data should capture the
PAN number of the importer or the exporter and that RBI take necessary steps for the
same to get this done on an urgent basis.
Nikkei India August services PMI at 54.7 - August saw a solid rebound in the rate of
expansion in Indian service sector business activity. Output was raised in response to a
marked improvement in new work inflows and increased levels of business confidence.
The trend in employment remained comparatively subdued, however, with a slight
decrease in jobs signal led for the first time since September of last year. At 54.7 in
August, up from 51.9 in July, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Services Business
Activity Index posted its highest level for over three-and-a-half years. The headline index
has now signal led expansion in each of the past 14 months. Output grew in five of the six
monitored categories, the exception being Hotels & Restaurants. With growth of
manufacturing production also ticking higher, the seasonally adjusted Nikkei India
Composite PMI Output Index climbed from 52.4 in July to a 42-month high of 54.6 in
August, highlighting a stronger improvement in private sector economic activity.
Measured across the service economy, the level of incoming new work rose at the
quickest pace for three-and-a-half years. Where an expansion was registered, companies
mainly linked this to improved market conditions. Similarly,manufacturing order books
increased at a sharp rate that was the quickest since December 2014.
RBI Governor argues for Independent Central Bank for macroeconomic stability of
the country - In his last public speech as the RBI Governor at St.Stephens College in

New Delhi, Dr. Raghuram G. Rajan explained why central banking was not as easy as it
appeared - just raising or cutting interest rates - and why it needed decisions, sometimes
unpopular or hard-to-explain ones, to be made under conditions of extreme uncertainty
and argued in favor of having an independent central bank and the role and
responsibilities of the central bank governor.
The central bank governor has to make difficult policy choices often in the face of
uncertainties after weighing the alternatives as best as one can. He cited the example of
2013, when due to weak macro fundamentals the rupee tumbled and it was necessary to
get back the confidence of international investors and how he, who had just taken over as
the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, had to decide on introducing the FCNR
scheme in the midst of uncertainties. That the decision proved to be beneficial for the
country, the Reserve Bank and the banks, taught him that "Policy making invariably
involves taking measured risks in the face of uncertainty." He then made out a case for
India to have a strong and independent central bank so that it could ensure
macroeconomic stability.
It is for taking complex decisions - often difficult for the common citizens to
understand - That the central banks should be independent and should be able to say 'no'
to seemingly attractive proposals, he argued but added that at the same time, it also
cannot become free of all constraints. "It has to work under a framework set by the
Government," he said. In his view, "Frameworks reduce the space for differences" and it
was important that the constitutional authorities clearly outlined the central bank's
responsibilities. He gave two examples - a framework for inflation objective and a risk
management framework for RBI that indicated the level of equity the RBI needed, given
the risks it faced, to be adopted by the RBI Board. "The RBI did not have the luxury of
economic inconsistency," he said, be it interest rates, exchange rate, pushing banks to
clean up or paying dividend to the government.
In a poor country like India where so many people lived at the margin, the role of the
central bank was to ensure that growth did not exceed the country's potential, adopting
prudential policies that reduce the risk, and building sufficient buffers that the country
was protected against shocks. The Governor also explained the economic rationale of
why the RBI cannot pay special dividend to the government - in addition to the entire
surplus being paid out for the last three years.
High growth rate mandatory for collective well being: Arun Jaitley - A high growth
rate is a requisite if the benefits of growth are to percolate down to the last man,


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